[Nonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nonsense', 'I')s there no one to stand against my argument that the complexities involved preclude reaching any meaningful conclusions?

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nonsense', 'I')s there no one to stand against my argument that the complexities involved preclude reaching any meaningful conclusions?

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nonsense', ' ')So what do you call a theory that can't make any accurate predictions, & can't be verified until years or decades after the fact?

[Twilight]

Global peak is only a sum of what we have seen happen in dozens of countries already. Peak has already happened, many times, with stark implications for all policy areas in the affected countries. The global version is just adding up the curves, little more. There's not much guesswork anymore. The US-48 peak was understood before I was born. The American respone was what? Toy with buying a Corolla? The generation that confronts peak will not be in a position to do much. It's the preceding ones which could have materially affected the outcome. We can already see they failed. Those who will deal with the post-PO world got set up.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', ' ')If Tesla's frozen head invents room-temperature fusion... great... we dodged a bullet.

[PraiseDoom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', ' ')The generation that confronts peak will not be in a position to do much.

[Geko45]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nonsense', 'W')hat I'm saying is that we don't have a way to know which generation will face this energy crisis, and without that knowledge, predictions about peak oil are almost meaningless in practical terms. We don't know exactly when, or what the downstream consequences of peak oil will be, because too many different factors influence how things will evolve.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'G')lobal peak is only a sum of what we have seen happen in dozens of countries already. Peak has already happened, many times, with stark implications for all policy areas in the affected countries. The global version is just adding up the curves, little more. There's not much guesswork anymore. The US-48 peak was understood before I was born. The American respone was what? Toy with buying a Corolla? The generation that confronts peak will not be in a position to do much. It's the preceding ones which could have materially affected the outcome. We can already see they failed. Those who will deal with the post-PO world got set up.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', ' ') Monte Quest, has always written with such heartfelt passion about the environmental impacts of carbon emissions , who could fail to be moved by his love of nature, and who would be imbecilic enough to argue purely from a human standpoint, the costs or benefits of a technological "fix".

[PraiseDoom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '
') Monte Quest, has always written with such heartfelt passion about the environmental impacts of carbon emissions , who could fail to be moved by his love of nature, and who would be imbecilic enough to argue purely from a human standpoint, the costs or benefits of a technological "fix".

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', ' ') Monte Quest, has always written with such heartfelt passion about the environmental impacts of carbon emissions , who could fail to be moved by his love of nature, and who would be imbecilic enough to argue purely from a human standpoint, the costs or benefits of a technological "fix".

[Homesteader]

Nonesense,

What do you conclude from the last few years world wide production plateau?

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', ' ')If you think I have undermined your concern for the eco-system and our need to deal with wrenching change, I apologize for that. I in no way meant to do that, believe it or not.

[PraiseDoom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Homesteader', 'N')onesense,

What do you conclude from the last few years world wide production plateau?

[Rogozhin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')r is the question itself sacrosanct?

[Mircea]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nonsense', 'I')s there no one to stand against my argument that the complexities involved preclude reaching any meaningful conclusions?

Or is the question itself sacrosanct?

I command you!

[Alpaca]

The model for world peak is little more that adding up the individual peaks of once and current oil producing nations, as previously stated. As a well defined economic and geological model, it seems basically beyond dispute. At least speaking as a lay person (i.e not an economist nor a geologist) As demonstrated though, we still seem to need to TRY and dispute it.

The 'argument' naturally turns to the effects of dwindling supplies in the face of (likely) increasing demand. Yeah sure, there may be some technological advance that 'saves our bacon', or at least keeps it outta the fire for a few years. Never underestimate the power of the brainiacs and Asain kids squirelled away in universities, right? But, personally, I doubt it.

All (or at least most) of the evidence points toward a very hard landing post peak, with only anemic attempts at "Conservation". "We'll keep doing what we've been doing until we can't, and then we won't" to paraphase 'ol whats-his-name. And it sure seems like 'full steam ahead' and 'smoke 'em if ya got 'em' until we can't afford it anymore. Then things are likely to get interesting, and it just becomes a matter of when and 'how interesting'.

[mkwin]

I find a number of elements of peak oil die-off scenario a little weak – such as;

1. I understand peak oil occurs when half of the economically extractable resources have been exhausted. However changing economic situations affect what is classified as economical to extract - surely there is now more economically extractable oil when the price of oil is $60+? Hence, more investment and greater expense on older equipment surely would increase the amount of oil economically recoverable in the medium term.

2. Another trend seems to be to assume a recession will lead to a failures and eventually permanent failure of the energy grid system. I just can't see this happening as it's too important for any government to let collapse. The government will simply nationalize the energy system.

3. Also, what about the collapse in demand for oil during the recession - surely this would further the plateau to allow time for further substitution to coal to liquids etc. The Hirsch report talks about a minimum lead in period of 10 years to migrate much of the economic difficulties but he also assumes NIMBY attitudes will cause much of the hold up. In an economic crises governments around the world will likely take emergency measures to override local objection and will get support from the majority, who won’t be effected but will enjoy the benefit, to build alternative infrastructure.

4. If the depression was very severer and tax revenue collapsed surely the government would opt for some kind of rationing system and compulsory nation service of unemployed people put to work maintaining food production, collecting resources and assisting in less technical roles in the investment in alternative and renewable infrastructure.

It seems to me there are a huge amount of possible courses of action that could be followed and many ways this can play itself out. In a worst case scenario I can see a neo-communist set-up being adopted in many countries in order to maintain the core activities of the government. Hopefully this big government role will have representation on some areas of life and a strong legislator so power won’t become too centralized. In the more moderate scenario I can see a prolonged period of stagflation, some governmental intervention and a semi-managed economy before some areas of the industrialized world reach a degree of stability.

In both scenarios, I think the developing and third-world will be faring far worse than the developed world as the new urban masses and poor people already dependant on aid starve. In the case of the developed world – in both cases - the quality of living will be reduced, in the UK possibly similar to that of the post-WW2 era when Britain was the poor man of Europe. Given the level of organization, technical ability, education and, generally, good food production capabilities, I think – assuming Olduvai Theory is correct – much of the populations of North America, Europe and Russia will survive making up a significant portion of the 2 billion left. Possibly reducing, due to decreasing birthrates, to around 750 million by 2050.

The bottom line is, while it’s important to prepare for the worst it can’t be helpful to assume it.

[azreal60]

The problem is, no one is even Planning for the worst. All our government policy is planning not even for the median possibility. They are almost all planning for the best and figuring they can make it up as they go along. That kinda of thing is why most of the posters on this site are doomers.

Your right though, if people where planning for doom, then it would stop being doom.

That's the trick isn't it?

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'I') find a number of elements of peak oil die-off scenario a little weak – such as;

1. I understand peak oil occurs when half of the economically extractable resources have been exhausted. However changing economic situations affect what is classified as economical to extract - surely there is now more economically extractable oil when the price of oil is $60+? Hence, more investment and greater expense on older equipment surely would increase the amount of oil economically recoverable in the medium term.