[MrBill]

Mircea wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')oes this have anything to do with the North American Union or the "Amero." Is that the game plan, make everyone's life miserable so they want to do the NAU thing?

[xrotaryguy]

During the great depression, my grand father converted his family's farm machinery to run on ethanol. It's not a difficult conversion. Similar conversions can be performed on any gasoline powered machine. My grand father lived on a corn farm, so he had plenty of corn to convert into ethanol. He also had plenty of switch (corn stalks, cobs, husks, etc) to fuel the distillation process.

Diesel powered machines are even easier to run on alternative fuels. Diesel fuels are incredibly easy to make from used motor oil, fryer grease, or any other kind of oil. In fact, the original diesel was run on peanut oil. Not only can fryer grease be converted into a usable diesel fuel, but diesels can actually run on plain ol' fryer grease after the particulate matter has been removed and the grease has been warmed enough to liquefy. Also, there are several affordable kits on the market now that will convert used motor oil into diesel fuel. I even heard of a diesel running on motor oil (poorly) in one desperate situation.

So, yes, I say that industrial agriculture can be sustained with alternative fuels.

[MrBill]

I have a 1928 Ford Model A that runs on ethanol just fine. We also have small tractors that can easily run on rapeseed (canola) converted to bio-diesel. They are simple machines. Of course, you have to have a live in mechanic/welder/machinists to keep them working. And they can only plow, seed and harvest less acreage than big machines. I see that as a small scale solution, but not one that is scalable. Good for a few families. Not likely to solve global issues.

However, I am sure that solar, bio-fuel, wind, etc. will at least solve some agricultural power needs as they are local and seasonal. But we have to recognize that any land taken out of food production for fuel production is less crops produced in total (net of energy), and that means less income for the farmer and higher costs for the consumer.

I am also sure that crop rotation, no till, some GMOs and some dung versus petroleum based fertilizer can be used, but we are also talking about simulataneous population increases, while trying to grow more food on less arable land due to soil salination, falling water tables, climate change, erosion and urban sprawl. This is still a daunting task. Not to be taken lightly.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mircea', 'W')hat are we doing now? Growing the same crops in the same fields year in and year out over and over and over, except now we have and must use chemical fertilizers to replenish the mineral and nutrient content.

[RdSnt]

There really isn't any point in expending energy on "who's to blame", hell we all are. However, at the same time, none of are. This is simply the system we grew up with(in). I'm sure some of us saw that we should be doing things more efficiently and there has certainly been lots of talk about the dangers of mono-cropping, that has nothing to do with Peak Oil.

What needs to be concentrated on is how to manage (if that's possible) the transition to a post-petroleum based agriculture.

I personally anticipate a great deal of chaos and misery.

Our current intensive agriculture has damaged the soil so much, that vast tracks of "farm land" are equivalent to open-air hydroponics. The dirt is a sterile medium that is used to hold chemicals and water that have to be artificially injected, in order for a crop to grow.

Post peak, this type of soil won't grow a thing.

With the coming chaos, it is going to be a couple of decades before things stablize enough of Pops small farms to become established again and have a chance of surviving.

[MrBill]

RdSnt, I deleted your duplicate post. Thanks.

Pops as usual makes some very good points. A 40hp tractor is a luxury, of course, but on the other hand, a small tractor with a front-end loader and a 3-point hitch is a great labor saving device as well. And if it is burning bio-diesel then I would bet that it uses less bio-fuel than draught power or a hired man. At least you do not have to keep feeding it when it isn't working.

Farming has never stopped developing and innovating. It just goes through many subtle changes and not so subtle phases due to external competitive pressures.

For example, phasing out The Crow Freight Rate Tariffs over the past 20-years have dramatically altered the landscape of Prairie farming in Western Canada. Especially in Alberta where grain used to be shipped out due to cheap freight rate subsidies for export. Whereas now there are a lot more cattle and some marginal farmland has been returned to hay or pasture. That diversifies the farmer's income and means more grain gets fed closer to home as well as preventing some soil erosion and salination from intensive grain farming. But at the time it was widely opposed by many farmers!

[denverdave]

As long as the grid holds up, electrified tractors would be more workable with a "cord" than batteries. You could hire a few unemployed realtors or car salesmen to manage the power lines. It would be a lot more labor intensive than a big diesel tractor, but a lot more productive than horses. Some sort of cable and winch system might work too.

Also a lot of diesel could be freed up if we stopped trucking frozen microwave entrees and doritos and carbonated sugar water around and sent sacks of grain and produce by rail instead.

Places like north dakota have lots of potential windpower that could be used to make fertilizer via electrolysis. Two of the big problems with wind power, it's intermittent nature and lack of transmission capacity to places where it's needed, would not be a problem in this case, and it would be relatively close to where the product is needed.

[bshirt]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('denverdave', 'T')wo of the big problems with wind power, it's intermittent nature and lack of transmission capacity to places where it's needed,

[denverdave]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bshirt', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('denverdave', 'T')wo of the big problems with wind power, it's intermittent nature and lack of transmission capacity to places where it's needed,

[cube]

This is the "cube" scenario of post PO agriculture:


It may be hard to see but there's actually a farmer and a plow in that picture. I wouldn't consider the "back end" of 6 horses to be a pretty sight but nobody ever said life after PO was going to be "business as usual".

IMHO even without PO we'd still have a population crash due to environmental factors ---> too many to state.

BTW I don't consider "global warming" to be a zero-sum game. We can all joke that if we lose tropical farmland in Thailand we can make up for it in Scotland ha ha. My gut feeling tells me the summation of all losses will far exceed the gains.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'T')his is the "cube" scenario of post PO agriculture:


It may be hard to see but there's actually a farmer and a plow in that picture. I wouldn't consider the "back end" of 6 horses to be a pretty sight but nobody ever said life after PO was going to be "business as usual".

IMHO even without PO we'd still have a population crash due to environmental factors ---> too many to state.

BTW I don't consider "global warming" to be a zero-sum game. We can all joke that if we lose tropical farmland in Thailand we can make up for it in Scotland ha ha. My gut feeling tells me the summation of all losses will far exceed the gains.

[cube]

Contrary to popular belief, human /animal muscle is much more efficient then what people give it credit for. If mechanical systems were superior to biological in every form then we'd have 2 legged robots that can do ballet dance right now. Obviously that has NOT happen....yet.

However I think there's one variable that many people here have missed. In a distant PO world where oil is simply not available (or only on a significantly smaller scale) there would NOT be 6 billion people on this planet. You'd be lucky to see 1 billion. With such a drastic demographic change would we still have places like South Korea and China producing manufactured goods at dirt cheap prices? How much would a tractor cost to build without the aid of fossil fuels?

Just imagine ALL the infrastructure it takes to build tractors.
Who cares whether it's running on bio-diesel or batteries?....will we even have tractors in the future???
1) you need a factory
2) power plants and water treatment plants to run the factory
3) freeways to transport parts
4) railroads and seaports to haul raw goods like iron ore

I don't know how much of this infrastructure will be in place or what condition it will be in, but we have to assume that in a PO world manufactured goods will be MUCH more expensive relative to income compared to now.

[MrBill]

Cube, that is way too far into the future for me to contemplate except in a very abstract way. To sum it up we don't know what we don't know that far into the future.

There may or may not be such a huge die-off, and even if so, who does the dying? Where? And how quietly do they go? Or does someone do a global Hiroshima in the process?

Does some of our infrastructure survive? All or none? If none, then alternative energy is a non-starter. If some, then we may be able to mitigate events to a new reality, no-matter how bumpy that transition is. A global depression that last 3-generations is still better than some other alternatives.

However, you're talking about when there is no energy left to run tractors. That is far into the future even using our still primitive technology that we already have. Bottom-line is that cheap petrocarbons have not exactly sharpened our best minds in search of alternatives and re-organizing how we achieve our basic needs, but that will happen. When food becomes a priority, then we will throw more resources at growing food.

At the moment, food is ridiculously cheap. We ship it in from around the world and end up throwing it out after it reaches its best sell by date. It is so cheap that we feed grain to beef cattle because we prefer more hamburger than corn in our tacos. It is so cheap that we eat on average two meals out of three 'out' because we can afford to have someone cook it for us and serve us. Our time is currently worth more than the price of our food. And our farmers are forced onto corporate welfare because they cannot get enough for their own production. That too will change.

And you are also talking about replacement tractors. There are already quite a few tractors in the world. They will need spare parts, but they can be made to run longer. Most farmers traded up to achieve bigger economies of scale from their farm machinery not because the tractor they had did not run anymore. If food is very expensive, then a market to manufacture spare parts for tractors will evolve. Locally if need be.

But by the way, imagine a worldwide recession that creates a surplus of labor. Do you think they will not be desperately trying to sell something, to anyone, to create employment and put bread on their own tables? We seem to think that peak oil depletion will nullify our basic needs. It won’t. If someone can produce a tractor or spare parts for a tractor they will using whatever source of power and recycled materials they have. Peak oil is not going to eliminate the need to produce and sell things. It just makes them more labor intensive, more expensive and harder to ship. However, it will be far into the future by the time we have no ships and no railways.

And as I said, I have a hard time thinking past 2050, due to a confluence of events between 2030 and 2050 when we reach our natural limits or carrying capacity of Mother Earth and the need for petro-carbons starts to outstrip supply after 2030, but populations keep rising until at least 2050. That will be crunch time. Past 2050 we simply do not know what will happen? Everything is just a guess past then. Until then we will be running tractors. Or a combination of mixed power for agriculture. Of that I am sure.

[deMolay]

The picture is showing a six horse team on a single furrow breaking plow. This was fairly normal practise. Once the field is opened up, depending on the size of the farm it was normal to keep two teams, and a driving horse or team for wagons, and travel. Yes horses can be a lot of work and time. But look at how much of the average wage slaves time and money goes into buying keeping and maintaining a car.

[Ferretlover]

Estimating Farm Fuel Requirements by H.W. Downs and R.W. Hansen1 The entire article at: http://www.ext.colostate.edu/pubs/farmmgt/05006.html
Quick Facts...
• Estimating the amount of fuel used in farming operations will help select the best conservation practices for farm equipment.
• Tractors use an average of only 55 to 60 percent of their maximum horsepower on a year-round basis.
• Energy-use rates for farming operations frequently are measured in horsepower hours.
• Select the most fuel-conserving method by comparing different tillage methods and cropping systems.
With increasing concern for fuel conservation and energy management, farmers may wish to estimate the amount of fuel required to perform specific farming operations. By knowing the amount of fuel used, farmers can select the best conservation practices to manage farm equipment.
Type of Fuel
There are three common types of fuels used in farm tractors: diesel fuel, gasoline and LP gas. Their respective physical characteristics are:
Diesel fuel 7.0 lb/gal* 138,000 Btu/gal*
Gasoline 6.2 lb/gal 124,300 Btu/gal
LP gas 4.25 lb/gal 92,300 Btu/gal
The present trend is toward larger tractors and diesel engines. The diesel engine is more efficient and powers nearly all new tractors over 100 horsepower (hp).
Estimating Fuel Requirements
Tractors -- even the larger, high-horsepower units -- use an average of only 55 to 60 percent of their maximum horsepower on a year-round basis.
The average horsepower use is less than the maximum power rating mainly because a tractor is selected to do high-power requirement operations, such as heavy tillage, in a timely manner, and usually has excess power for seedbed finishing, seeding and cultivating. Only a few crop production operations require maximum power. Fuel consumption is shown in Table 1.

[deMolay]

Anyone who thinks you can convert a diesel tractor to run on battery power is dreaming in techniclour. You would be much further ahead to produce bio diesel.

[MrBill]

I am sure you have seen tractors that pull a cultivator, followed by a seed drill, and then by a fertilizer spreader?

John Deere Air Seeders

The idea is one pass cultivation and seeding to reduce time and fuel requirements.

The biggest drawback to present battery technology is the weight to power ratio of the batteries. Technically, you do not have this problem with farm machinery. They do not have to travel far and they do not have to travel fast. Size and appearance are not a consideration.

A battery loaded wagon can be hooked up to the back of the tractor along with your cultivator and spreader. The wagon is not creating as much drag as a cultivator as it is just running along the ground on wheels and not digging into the soil.

Solar recharged batteries can work because as has been mentioned the longer and sunnier days coincide with the agricultural season as well. And on farms there is extra room for solar panels.

Stationary fuel cells to recharge batteries are also possible. Again weight and size do not matter. Fuel cells using methane as their feedstock? I do not know, but worth looking at?

You are right about existing diesel tractors more likely running on bio-diesel. That is the way I see it as well.

But in a post peak oil world where I expect higher real prices for agricultural commodities, and the end to cheap, subsidized food policies, there will be a drive to develop new battery technology to run tractors as well as hybrid cars.

The latest battery technology means a car with a limited range can still cost up to $95.000 (Tesla), the batteries being half the weight and half the cost of the car. But the batteries will not be fully developed until after 2010. Tesla Roadster

That is a lot for a car, but within the price range of a new tractor. I assume gains made in one area will migrate into other related fields sooner rather than later.

CAT, John Deere, Mitsubishi and many others will be keen to develop these technologies not just for agriculture equipment, but also for mining and other industrial applications. This market has completely different fundamentals from long-range, fast charging, liqht batteries needed for automobiles. Over-night charging and a limited range are needed.

[MrBill]

Just keeping an eye out for bio-diesel and methane recovery articles. Will post the link here for future reference. Thanks.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he study found little scope for alternative energy sources or on-site generation under the current electricity pricing regime.

An American manufacturer has been testing in New Zealand generators able to produce electricity while running on methane from dairy shed manure digesters, but Mr Gregory said solar panels, biogas and wind turbines were unlikely to be economic in the near future.

CAENZ said limited adoption of energy-saving equipment and processes in dairy farming probably reflected the fact that energy costs by world standards were not high, and energy is still only a small item among total dairy farm operating expenses.

"As energy prices rise, efficiency will inevitably become a great priority", Mr Gregory said.

[sparky]

.

RdSnt ,you are such a doomsday romantic

In order to get close to what you may think of as a sustainable agricultural system based on renewable energy, 5 billion people must die within the next 5 years or so.

Pity that you are totally right , I know farming , no tractor will ever run on batteries

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '.')

RdSnt ,you are such a doomsday romantic

In order to get close to what you may think of as a sustainable agricultural system based on renewable energy, 5 billion people must die within the next 5 years or so.

Pity that you are totally right , I know farming , no tractor will ever run on batteries