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Peak Oil - A Conspiracy Theory?

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: 80% think high gas prices due to oil company conspiracy

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Sat 26 May 2007, 13:28:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zorn', 'w')hy arent oil prices going up? the reason people beleive it is because oil came down, but gas went up. doesnt that point to US refineries/companies and not oil itself?


Gasoline prices are up for one reason, record low inventories going into the highest demand part of the year. WTI is priced right now due to high inventories of that sitting at Cushing OK where the NYMEX contracts get delivered. Becasue of that oil isnt quite a player in the price problem. Refineries are in trouble due to lower quality crude going through the cracking towers and defferal of maintenance after Katrina. It is also due to higher than normal demand over the last few months. So, it follows that the markets and the buyers and sellers who know about our little inventory crisis are pushing up the price of gasoline because in a free market that is how you do things. Demand is hoped to be curbed at some point and price will come down. Maybe.

The big elephant sitting in the room right now is demand. Its not decreasing becasue gasoline is inelastic. Everyone needs it and has to use it. We wont sacrifice our SUV mentality/lifestyle so you are going to see ugly gasoline prices until something changes. If we could curb demand for gasoline things might abate a bit. Unfortunately It is not looking like that is going to be a player.

I do believe we ain't seen nothing yet. For a lot of us who understand markets and the concept of PO this is not a strange occurence. There may be a very slight amount of gouging going on but its likley a fraction of a few cents on the dollar. The crux of the problem is the harbinger of things to come after the peak of light sweet crude.

There is a plethora of really good information over in the Current Energy news threads concerning this.

I'd be very wary of crying conspiracy or gouging. Its what those who dont understand PO will be doing for quite some time to come.
Its really a form of denial too.
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Re: 80% think high gas prices due to oil company conspiracy

Unread postby threadbear » Sat 26 May 2007, 15:59:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zorn', 'w')hy arent oil prices going up? the reason people beleive it is because oil came down, but gas went up. doesnt that point to US refineries/companies and not oil itself?


Gasoline prices are up for one reason, record low inventories going into the highest demand part of the year. WTI is priced right now due to high inventories of that sitting at Cushing OK where the NYMEX contracts get delivered. Becasue of that oil isnt quite a player in the price problem. Refineries are in trouble due to lower quality crude going through the cracking towers and defferal of maintenance after Katrina. It is also due to higher than normal demand over the last few months. So, it follows that the markets and the buyers and sellers who know about our little inventory crisis are pushing up the price of gasoline because in a free market that is how you do things. Demand is hoped to be curbed at some point and price will come down. Maybe.

The big elephant sitting in the room right now is demand. Its not decreasing becasue gasoline is inelastic. Everyone needs it and has to use it. We wont sacrifice our SUV mentality/lifestyle so you are going to see ugly gasoline prices until something changes. If we could curb demand for gasoline things might abate a bit. Unfortunately It is not looking like that is going to be a player.

I do believe we ain't seen nothing yet. For a lot of us who understand markets and the concept of PO this is not a strange occurence. There may be a very slight amount of gouging going on but its likley a fraction of a few cents on the dollar. The crux of the problem is the harbinger of things to come after the peak of light sweet crude.

There is a plethora of really good information over in the Current Energy news threads concerning this.

I'd be very wary of crying conspiracy or gouging. Its what those who dont understand PO will be doing for quite some time to come.
Its really a form of denial too.


Yada yada yada.

Follow your gut on this one, Zorn. There is peak and there is also manipulation going on. Oil doesn't comply to typical free market theory as these dorks will try to get you to think
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Re: 80% think high gas prices due to oil company conspiracy

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Sat 26 May 2007, 16:19:51

Once again threadbear we will go round and round with your "conjecture". All you have is the suspicion that somehow the inventory situation has been manipulated. I agree its possible, but the EVIDENCE as provided many places here doesnt support it.

Once again the likelyhood that all the big oil and refining companies are run by monsters like Ken lay is not a reasonable assumption.

I'll ask a simple question here and would appreciate an answer. If you were the CEO of a major oil company or refining firm and had at least a healthy company, why would you jeopardize record profits doing business above board for the next several years by artificially manipulating refinery output and gasoline inventory? If you get found out, and it's likely you will with the scrutiny the industry will be under, you risk far more than just some short term gain.

If we are at or past peak these businesses will be like 100% payout slot machines. They are the "pushers" for the greatest addiction in history and it's not against the law to do it.

Your grasping for straws without seeing the evidence right in front of your face. You disregard the writings of Deffeyes, Hubbert, Simmons etc. I guess you must believe that Dantespeak, Pup55 and a whole slew of energy industry analysts are in on it too?

You can save the insults directed at me, I believe we already know Im a shill and a PO apologist, I like that one.

This whole scenario fits perfectly with what we have all been talking about for years, folks have predicted it. Your premise means you really dont believe the concept of PO. You feel that is also a conspiracy too I guess. Interesting.
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Re: 80% think high gas prices due to oil company conspiracy

Unread postby Kristen » Sat 26 May 2007, 16:38:34

Its not the oil companies, I believe, because people are greedy and honestly why would they wait this long to manipulate prices?
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Re: 80% think high gas prices due to oil company conspiracy

Unread postby threadbear » Sat 26 May 2007, 17:42:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'O')nce again threadbear we will go round and round with your "conjecture". All you have is the suspicion that somehow the inventory situation has been manipulated. I agree its possible, but the EVIDENCE as provided many places here doesnt support it.

Once again the likelyhood that all the big oil and refining companies are run by monsters like Ken lay is not a reasonable assumption.

I'll ask a simple question here and would appreciate an answer. If you were the CEO of a major oil company or refining firm and had at least a healthy company, why would you jeopardize record profits doing business above board for the next several years by artificially manipulating refinery output and gasoline inventory? If you get found out, and it's likely you will with the scrutiny the industry will be under, you risk far more than just some short term gain.

If we are at or past peak these businesses will be like 100% payout slot machines. They are the "pushers" for the greatest addiction in history and it's not against the law to do it.

Your grasping for straws without seeing the evidence right in front of your face. You disregard the writings of Deffeyes, Hubbert, Simmons etc. I guess you must believe that Dantespeak, Pup55 and a whole slew of energy industry analysts are in on it too?

You can save the insults directed at me, I believe we already know Im a shill and a PO apologist, I like that one.

This whole scenario fits perfectly with what we have all been talking about for years, folks have predicted it. Your premise means you really dont believe the concept of PO. You feel that is also a conspiracy too I guess. Interesting.


I'm not disregarding Deffeyes, Hubbert, Simmons. I agree with them and the other posters that peak oil is a problem. How did you get the impression that I didn't. I took pains to outline that. REad my last post. I suggested Zorn follow his gut on this. Peak is real and so is manipulation. They work in tandem. Please explain why you find this idea impossible to get your head around. Or why you think manipulation and geological peak are incompatible?
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Re: 80% think high gas prices due to oil company conspiracy

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Sat 26 May 2007, 20:38:09

I guess I was inder the impression you were implying that the problem mentioned is related more to a collusion amongst big oil to manipulate prices. If I took your point incorrectly I apologize. You do have a sort of track record on this threadbear.

Zorn, dont follow your gut, follow that noggin you have and look at the facts. Its easy to game the manipulation scenario, but its not proven by the things we are seeing. This is a purely an inventory problem that appears likely to get worse. The market is driving the price on fundamentals due to refining inferior grades of crude and high demand. I dont know that it gets any more nefarious than that. I do think that is bad enough.
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Re: 80% think high gas prices due to oil company conspiracy

Unread postby threadbear » Sat 26 May 2007, 22:34:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'I') guess I was inder the impression you were implying that the problem mentioned is related more to a collusion amongst big oil to manipulate prices. If I took your point incorrectly I apologize. You do have a sort of track record on this threadbear.

.


Now you know why I've been driven nuts on this point.
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Re: 80% think high gas prices due to oil company conspiracy

Unread postby SinisterBlueCat » Sun 27 May 2007, 01:47:47

gas is 27 cents a gallon in kuwait city
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Re: 80% think high gas prices due to oil company conspiracy

Unread postby Falconoffury » Sun 27 May 2007, 02:13:19

A conspiracy to keep prices high? If anything, I think there's a conspiracy to keep prices lower than they would be in a purely free market.

There is a conspiracy to keep knowledge of peak oil out of the mainstream media. The fact that it isn't in the mainstream media is proof enough.

There is a conspiracy to keep the economy running at full tilt for as long as possible so that the eventual crash can be as sudden and complete as possible.

There are various conspiracies surrounding the issue of oil, but I don't see any strong proof that the oil companies are conspiring to keep prices high. Supply and demand fundamentals are doing that job great already.
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Re: 80% think high gas prices due to oil company conspiracy

Unread postby DantesPeak » Sun 27 May 2007, 11:00:56

My New Jersey Sunday paper reported that yes, even about 80% of the people in New Jersey believe that there is price gouging going on in NJ, the state with the lowest average gasoline prices.

Since most people in general don't examine even important things, like going to war, very closely, I'm assuming that they have been influenced by politicians and others in the media. So you might say there is a very active conspiracy to put out incorrect information about high gasoline prices [what AirlinePilot said above is the correct explantion].

The US government is even doing its part to reduce prices by not refilling the SPR, even though there is a surplus of oil in the general area of the SPR.

I can only conclude that people in the US have a stronger belief in their present way of life than the truth. This will eventually cause the huge problems Falconoffury speaks of.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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Re: 80% think high gas prices due to oil company conspiracy

Unread postby threadbear » Sun 27 May 2007, 12:56:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '
')
The US government is even doing its part to reduce prices by not refilling the SPR, even though there is a surplus of oil in the general area of the SPR.
.


:lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: 80% think high gas prices due to oil company conspiracy

Unread postby bobcousins » Sun 27 May 2007, 14:29:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '8')0% think high gas prices due to oil company conspiracy


Only 80%? I thought it would be nearer 95%. The American people must be smarter than I thought. :roll:
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Re: 80% think high gas prices due to oil company conspiracy

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Mon 28 May 2007, 04:30:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('purcatty', 'I')ts a lot better to have a conspiracy, then we can find out about it, rap their knuckles and then we can have 25 cents per gallon gas again, so easy.


And when that happens, which actually looks plausible since so few see what is the real cause of this, you will see an even faster drawdown in inventory leading to a much larger and deeper crisis. What do you do then? If you continue that line things fall apart much sooner due to the floodgates of demand you would artificially unleash at "25 cents/gal".

I know your being sarcastic but penalizing anyone for resource depletion does no one any good. Price must be allowed to climb to uncomfortable levels if we are to see demand curbed. Its the only way to stabilize the price that makes any long term sense. Government will try to "do something" about ugly prices I think, but its the wrong reaction to this problem.
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Peak Oil Theory vs. Conspiracy Theory

Unread postby oswald622 » Sat 05 Apr 2008, 04:15:01

The term Peak Oil denotes an irreversible decline in oil production, but among forward-thinkers, doomers, and the types that frequent this forum, Peak Oil also connotes the collapse of modern civilization: we have a socio-economic system dependent on continued growth that is now facing physical limits - and something has got to give.

Now by Conspiracy Theory I do not mean something as simple as 'the oil companies are gouging us', and neither do I refer to the kinds of Conspiracy Theory that incorporate Peak Oil Theory, or vice versa - such as that 9/11 was concocted by US covert operatives in order that the Middle East's oil supplies might be secured for purposes of US 'national security'.

No, I mean full-on, Alex Jones/New World Order/Illuminati Conspiracy Theory. That is, that the world is currently ruled by dark forces who have far greater control than we might guess; and that they prefer to operate by creating crises which lead to the desired (and pre-determined) outcomes. According to this theory, for example, the present financial crisis was engineered so that a fearful public would accept greater powers being granted to the Federal Reserve.

Likewise, the hard-core Conspiracy Theory would hold that imminent Peak Oil is a manufactured crisis intended to result in, say, a Regional or ultimately World Government.

Certainly, arguments for either theory could be marshaled and trotted out, but that is not the purpose here. I propose instead an empirical view: what should each theory predict - and what, in fact, will transpire before our eyes?

According to the Peak Oil Theory, we should see accelerating chaos: food riots, rising prices, societal breakdown, economic disintegration. As Kunstler has it, for example, government and corporate monstrosities will eventually have to break down - we ought to see a greater re-localization, as states and capitalist entities will have fewer resources in the fight against entropy. This is the most widespread Peak Oil Theory, I think, with the various theorists disagreeing only on the degree and speed of collapse. (A notable exception is Mike Ruppert, who sees Peak Oil forcing regional agglomerations.)

The Conspiracy Theory predicts, like the Peak Oil Theory, that we should see accelerating chaos - but only up to a point. Only up to the point, that is, when the public begins begging for a solution that the alleged conspirators will be only too happy to provide - such as a new currency, a new form of government, or some other condition that would have been unthinkable in pre-crisis times. The important thing from our perspective, however, is that the crisis will largely have been averted.

To sum: if the Peak Oil Theory is the better theory, then we should see ever-accelerating chaos in the human world and, eventually, a Hobbesian war of all against all.

If, on the other hand, the Conspiracy Theory is the better theory, then we should see fear and chaos accelerate and then subside, as some magical, miracle solution is proferred by the powers that be. (Brief corollary: the crisis having been averted, we should also see some new crisis rear its ugly head - Global Pandemic, Domestic Terrorism, Invasion from Outer Space, etc.)

Are we agreed, then? Are these reasonable predictions? If so, then let us wait and see. We surely haven't too much longer!
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Re: Peak Oil Theory vs. Conspiracy Theory

Unread postby POAlex » Sat 05 Apr 2008, 15:57:52

Bible prophecy shows a one-world system, both political and religious, will be in place in the end before the return of Jesus Christ. It will be led by the Beast aka the Antichrist.

Read Revelation 13

So whether Peak Oil is manufactured or used as a reason to implement this one-world system, Bible prophecy says its coming. There's certainly smoke when looking into the Illuminati conspiracy, especially in light of their original goals, compared to the direction this world has taken since their inception in 1776.

Today, you can certainly see this one-world theme being promoted in politics, music and entertainment.

Alex
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Re: Peak Oil Theory vs. Conspiracy Theory

Unread postby Schadenfreude » Sat 05 Apr 2008, 17:47:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oswald622', 'N')o, I mean full-on, Alex Jones/New World Order/Illuminati Conspiracy Theory. That is, that the world is currently ruled by dark forces who have far greater control than we might guess; and that they prefer to operate by creating crises which lead to the desired (and pre-determined) outcomes.


In order to believe something like that, you would have to believe that the prime dictum of modern economics, The Law Of Supply and Demand, is a complete fraud. And there simply is no real evidence of that. Besides being part of modern economics, it is totally intuitive.
Humankind has always warred over shrinking resources - and that is totally in keeping with he law of supply and demand.

However, there IS quite good DEMAND for the the type of Good-vs-Evil-Battling-For-The-Soul-Of-Planet-Earth conspiracy theory that Alex Jones SUPPLIES. His whole business formula depends upon it. That is why he declares Peak Oil Theory a fraud perpetrated on the unwitting by their hidden overmasters - because if Peak Oil were indeed true, it would strongly suggest that whatever powers actually DO exert themselves are NOT omniscient and do NOT exert such overpowering control of everything and all peoples.
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Re: Peak Oil Theory vs. Conspiracy Theory

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 05 Apr 2008, 18:04:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oswald622', '
')According to the Peak Oil Theory, we should see accelerating chaos: food riots, rising prices, societal breakdown, economic disintegration.


The Peak Oil "theory" senso stricto only predicted global oil production will peak and then decline. Hubbard suggested 50 years ago that peak oil would occur about the year 2000. In actuality, production seems to have peaked in late 2005.

Societal responses to the peak oil "theory" such as riots, wars etc. are a matter of geopolitics, and are much more difficult to predict. Hubbard, for instance, predicted the world would turn to nuclear power to replace oil. Hubbard's prediction of peak oil is validated, but his prediction that oil would be replaced by nukes hasn't yet been proven true.
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Re: Peak Oil Theory vs. Conspiracy Theory

Unread postby bodigami » Sat 05 Apr 2008, 18:55:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('POAlex', 'B')ible prophecy shows a one-world system, both political and religious, will be in place in the end before the return of Jesus Christ. It will be led by the Beast aka the Antichrist.

Read Revelation 13

So whether Peak Oil is manufactured or used as a reason to implement this one-world system, Bible prophecy says its coming. There's certainly smoke when looking into the Illuminati conspiracy, especially in light of their original goals, compared to the direction this world has taken since their inception in 1776.

Today, you can certainly see this one-world theme being promoted in politics, music and entertainment.

Alex


Why christians cann't even imagine a united and harmonious world?!

The Cross - Samael

the wind of spring blows in heaven
in the land of gold in the land of god
manipulate the holiness
maculate our loneliness
shining between two worlds
learning to win and hold
fraction of monopoly
tension of opposite's pole
give or take what has to move
for I will fight for my country
Eldest to the one and I
harvest of love and light
armless - amnesty

North south east and west the cross is sent over the lands
keep draining what was and will be in our time in our life
pilot soul takes you on the ride, no rise no fall for Humankind

Among the best survive or leave
paranoid night so hard to relieve
would you betray innovation
in the name of tradition
hopeless - amnesia

North south east and west the cross is sent over the lands
keep draining what was and will be in our time in our life
pilot soul takes you on the ride, no rise no fall for Humankind

Helvetia gloria still smile behind the shade of shame
cross your faith, join your hands tomorrow holds another day
Eldest to the one and I
harvest of love and light
dictated by war and hate

supported by those who hide
it lives in your mind
whatever you may say
whoever you may pray
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Choices always were a problem for you.
What you need is someone strong to guide you.
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what you need is someone strong to guide you...
like me,
like me.

If you want to get your soul to heaven,
trust in me.
Don't judge or question.
You are broken now,
but faith can heal you.
Just do everything I tell you to do.
Deaf and blind and dumb and born to follow.
what you need is someone strong to guide you...

Deaf and blind and dumb and born to follow.
Let me lay my holy hand upon you.

My God's will
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When he speaks out,
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Re: Peak Oil Theory vs. Conspiracy Theory

Unread postby Fredrik » Sun 06 Apr 2008, 18:29:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zensui', ' ')Why christians cann't even imagine a united and harmonious world?!


Sure I can imagine such a world. Just first erase common human selfishness and greed.
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Re: Peak Oil Theory vs. Conspiracy Theory

Unread postby threadbear » Sun 06 Apr 2008, 18:59:55

Peak oil theory and conspiracy theory aren't mutually exclusive. Opec's reaction, for example, to dwindling supplies, is going to be the same as a planned action to simply drive up price.

The American govt's reaction to an actual peak and the ensuing domestic chaos, will look a lot like a pre-planned action, or could be a pre planned action to deal with the effects of an economy that has been mismanaged, not necessarily diminishing supplies.

The effects of a dwindling dollar, a naturally occurring event, born of lack of proper regulation, could amplify the expense of rarer oil, or artificially constrained oil. It all looks very conspiratorial and is rife with those elements. It boils down to who exactly is conspiring, and how, and about what. It's pretty byzantine, I'm sure.

As far as banksters go, there has simply been a laissez faire culture implemented in the system..and you know...boys will be boys. Is it a conspiracy? I think it's actually more like a kind of pre meditated hit and run accident, carried out by a convergence of self interest. People have been engaging in intentional traffic accidents in the form of off loading risky investments onto other parties as quickly as possible, and then getting the hell out of there.

911 is something else...an inside job, if ever I saw one.
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