[Joe0Bloggs]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shill Piece', '
')Uranium may more than double to $250 a pound next year as demand for the nuclear fuel outpaces production, according to SXR Uranium One Inc.

SXR will become the world's second- largest producer of the metal, after Canada's Cameco Corp., when it completes the acquisition of UrAsia Energy Ltd.

[M_B_S]

MOSCOW, May 21 (RIA Novosti) - A top Russian nuclear expert said Monday the world price for raw uranium may continue growing at the same pace as in past years, driving prices up at least 10 times more.

"The price of raw uranium has grown 15 times in the past years, from $20 to $300 per kilo. I think it may still grow by another order of magnitude," Yevgeny Velikhov, head of the key Russian nuclear Kurchatov Institute, told a RIA Novosti news conference.

http://en.rian.ru/russia/20070521/65826540.html
******************************************************

Peak Oil = Peak Uranium


Uranium is no solution to peak oil its another problem!

M_B_S

[Sideous]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PolestaR', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('M_B_S', 'T')he average ore grade mined is around 0.11 per cent, which means that for every tonne of uranium extracted around 4,500 tonnes of waste rock is mined and 900 tonnes of mill tailings added to a lagoon. The fossil fuel energy and electricity used to produce this tonne of uranium amounts to 2 gigawatt-hours (GWh), and 1,400 tonne of CO2 is released. So the 9,000 tonnes produced requires roughly 18,000 GWh and releases 12.6 million tonnes of CO2.

[PolestaR]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sideous', 'T')he EROI for a PWR is about 20 if only electricity is considered, and 59 if considered on an all-heat basis.

The 20 figure assumes that the uranium has been centrifuge enriched (which is the norm). The EROI drops considerably if diffusion techniques are used to enrich the Uranium (which are obsolete).

Of course, EROI will drop as lower grade uranium is used for fuel. This effectively becomes irrelevant if we switch to breeders. On that basis, ordinary granite rock has 5 times the uranium energy density of coal. We aren't going to run out of granite.

[Tanada]

Polestar, I don't beleive there is such a things as a person with no bias, the very best we can get and should expect is a person who says up front, "This is my bias and it may influence my methodology". If they do that you can add your own fudge factor and see what you get. Gentlemen like Storm Van Lewuen claim to have no bias and then spout numbers that are way way out of line with established reallity. If he said "I am against fission and here are my assumptions" at least that would be honest.

I far prefer Bernard Cohen PhD physics, but thats just my own bias. I don't agree with everything he says and he constantly uses either optimistic number's or comparisons with the dirtiest and lowest EROEI fossil sources for his comparisons. I know enough to fudge his numbers down from total cornucopianism and still get pretty good feeling for the future of Fission.

Almost all the problems Fission faces in the USA are pollitical, the technical problems were all solved at the latest in the 1990's. We now have the knowledge for doing fission safely and economically, but there is huge inertia in the over bloated pollitical machinery in the USA to keep things as they are. So long as fossil fuel stays cheap enough to allow things to coast on the current trajectory they will continue to do so, start enforcing carbon taxes or real clean up costs on fossil fuels and things might change.

[Tyler_JC]

The argument over uranium supply is missing a discussion about the economics of uranium mining.

At $10/barrel, global oil supply shrinks dramatically because much of the world's current production becomes unprofitable. This isn't because they are using more energy to produce the oil than they are getting from it, if that was the case, oil production in those regions would NEVER be profitable. And yet, we have oil companies producing oil in places that have $25/barrel production costs.

At $100/barrel, global oil supply increases because some areas will attract new capital and expensive production techniques will be used that would never be considered at only $10/barrel. (Think about the cost of a new oil tanker or a new offshore drilling rig. No one would build either of those if the dollar profits weren't there, ignoring the energy cost to build)

The same thing happens with uranium. At $1000/kg, uranium reserves increase dramatically. Uranium mining companies experience a profit explosion and throw money around looking for more uranium to sell. Lower ore grade mines are reopened and the uranium is sold for a profit, both in dollar terms and in energy terms.

Obviously, if the uranium ever costs more to mine than it sells for...it won't be mined. Energy is not the only cost associated with uranium mining, also obvious. And yet people here assume that if a particular ore deposit isn't being utilized, it must be because the ore is not "energy profitable".

My dad could chop down trees in his backyard and sell the firewood. It would be energy profitable, might even be very energy profitable. But he doesn't care about energy profit. He cares about dollar profit. Therefore, he will spend his time doing accounting and consulting work, rather than lumber-jacking. Energy cost isn't the sole factor in determining how much energy will be produced, we must take economic factors into account.

The total mistrust for the science of economics is leading to an incomplete picture of how the world actually works and in particular, is leading to an incomplete picture of the uranium supply situation.

[PolestaR]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'T')he argument over uranium supply is missing a discussion about the economics of uranium mining.

At $10/barrel, global oil supply shrinks dramatically because much of the world's current production becomes unprofitable. This isn't because they are using more energy to produce the oil than they are getting from it, if that was the case, oil production in those regions would NEVER be profitable. And yet, we have oil companies producing oil in places that have $25/barrel production costs.

[Sideous]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PolestaR', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'T')he argument over uranium supply is missing a discussion about the economics of uranium mining.

At $10/barrel, global oil supply shrinks dramatically because much of the world's current production becomes unprofitable. This isn't because they are using more energy to produce the oil than they are getting from it, if that was the case, oil production in those regions would NEVER be profitable. And yet, we have oil companies producing oil in places that have $25/barrel production costs.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sideous', ' ') And most nuclear/renewable enrgy source concepts, will produce grid electric on a large scale.

This suggests one importnat and unavoidable fact: the future of energy is electric and electric will increasingly become the dominant end-use energy source.

[yesplease]

It depends on implementation and use. We're currently having trouble with transmission capacity at peak demand, so yes, we don't have the capacity to charge a fleet of plug-in hybrids or EVs at 4pm during the summer. Otoh, we have more than enough grid capacity to charge an entire fleet of EVs in the late night/early morning, when demand is nil, and rates are half to a third of what they normally are if you're on the proper plan.

If we implement EVs in the same manner we use gasoline, expect high, high voltage charging stations that peak at the same time current grid use peaks. Can't have a cheap, effective implementation when there's a wasteful, inefficient, and possibly downright stupid one present. No one made any money from efficiency. Except for the consumer, but who cares about 'em anyway?

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sideous', ' ') And most nuclear/renewable enrgy source concepts, will produce grid electric on a large scale.

This suggests one importnat and unavoidable fact: the future of energy is electric and electric will increasingly become the dominant end-use energy source.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', ' ')Nope. We build more power lines. Creates lots of jobs and growth, by the way.

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'I')t depends on implementation and use. We're currently having trouble with transmission capacity at peak demand, so yes, we don't have the capacity to charge a fleet of plug-in hybrids or EVs at 4pm during the summer. Otoh, we have more than enough grid capacity to charge an entire fleet of EVs in the late night/early morning, when demand is nil, and rates are half to a third of what they normally are if you're on the proper plan.

If we implement EVs in the same manner we use gasoline, expect high, high voltage charging stations that peak at the same time current grid use peaks. Can't have a cheap, effective implementation when there's a wasteful, inefficient, and possibly downright stupid one present. No one made any money from efficiency. Except for the consumer, but who cares about 'em anyway?

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', ' ')Nope. We build more power lines. Creates lots of jobs and growth, by the way.

[yesplease]

Jesus Christ does anyone read anything I post on this board? Hmmh... Why bother with an entire post when we can take sections of it out of context and debate those?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'Y')ou have never worked in a process industry, have you?

When 10-40 % of your costs are electricity, efficiency becomes a religion.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', ' ')Nope. We build more power lines. Creates lots of jobs and growth, by the way.

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'J')esus Christ does anyone read anything I post on this board? Hmmh... Why bother with an entire post when we can take sections of it out of context and debate those?

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', ' ')Nope. We build more power lines. Creates lots of jobs and growth, by the way.

[Sheb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DriveElectric', 'I') refer to EROEI as silly because it is been discredited as useless unit of measurement in numerous threads.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')1. Coal with an EROEI of 3 to 1
2. Oil with an EROEI of 6 to 1

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'W')rite another 1400 posts, then you can start complaining about people not reading anything you write.