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THE Uranium Supply Thread pt 4 (merged)

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: Uranium Supply

Postby Starvid » Sat 26 May 2007, 17:08:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'L')ower industry costs -> lower costs for consumers, as long as there is competition.
Ah yes, wouldn't it be nice if our economic system worked like that... Unfortunately, well we may be really efficient in industry, in order to make moneyz, we're way more inefficient at the point of use in terms of personal transportation. Granted, personal electric transportation may be more efficient and competitive than what's current used, but I wouldn't bet on it. At least, not until 2015 or so.

Call me stupid if you like, but I don't get it. :)

More efficient production leads to lower costs for consumers if there is competition between corporations. The last 300 years is something of a testament to that fact.

But the efficiency of consumption? That depends on the preferences of the individual. For example, some people think SUV's and rap music is an efficient consumption of their personal resources. I don't. But that doesn't mean that their consumption is inefficient in any empirical way, as we have different preferences.

If we want to look at inefficient consumption we must look at things like heating. Both I and Mr SUV Rapper like to heat our homes in winter. And heat is heat. If I live in a well insulated house connected to a biomass- and trashburning district heating plant while he is using a gas furnace to heat his drafty home, then his consumption is really inefficient, both from an energy and a financial point of view.

That is, if he doesn't get some kind of joy from specifically heating with gas or from living in a drafty house. Or paying high bills for that matter.

An example of this kind is that I would never like to live somewhere with gas cooking or heating, as I am confident I would surely blow myself up, or at least be constantly terrified of doing that.
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Postby Tanada » Sat 26 May 2007, 17:26:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sheb', '
')An industry/technology/engineering term is not discredited just because a handful people on a forum with generally weak math skills say it is.

ROI is a pretty simple concept, and really quite useful--"silly" or not.
ditto for EROEI. We're just dealing in Joules instead of $'s as the measure of value.

Now, show us how you run a reactor that produces more energy in fuel than it consumes...and make sure you describe your assumptions (they must be valid).

Either way, it seems that EROEI does not mean what you think it means. Its a ratio. The only way you get infinite EROEI is if you have a denominator of zero. (Hint, that means *zero* energy invested).


For nuclear fission we really need a new anachronim, FROFI (Fuel returned on fuel invested)

In a standard reactor as designed and built today with todays technology you get a return on fuel invested of about 1:2.5; for every 2.5 unit's of Uranium-235 consumed you get about 1 unit of Plutonium. In a Breeder reactor you get 1.01:1 up to 1.4:1

Different fuel mixtures or fertile and fissile materials in different layouts give you different results. With reactor tests back in the 1975-1985 period they proved that the LWBR was a viable breeder with light water as an adaptation of a standard PWR reactor core using Thorium and U-235/U-233. It gave a FROFI of (1.01:1).

How do you figure an EROEI on a reactor that delivers more fissionable mass at the end of the fuel run than it had at the start? All the while producing the same ammount of electricity it did before being converted to a LWBR core configuration and fuel loading? Granted the fuel has to go through reprocessing and this consumes some energy, but estimates on how much energy are all over the map and mostly depend on economics of scale and steady state operation to be economic comopared to fresh fuel.

Breeders are very Energy efficient without being Economically efficient.
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Re: Uranium Supply

Postby Tyler_JC » Sat 26 May 2007, 21:05:01

At $500/pound or $1000/pound or whatever price you feel like inputting, eventually breeder reactors do become economically efficient.

The higher costs associated with constructing a breeder reactor are eventually outpaced by higher costs associated with the fuel for conventional nuclear reactors.

And no, the price of building the breeder reactor will NOT rise as quickly as the rise in nuclear fuel for the simple fact that energy is not the only expense on the planet.

For some strange reason, everyone on this site assumes that if gasoline doubles in the price, the cost of every single good or service will double as well. Well, the cost of gasoline has tripled since 1999 and a cheeseburger at McDonald's is still a buck...

Sure, higher energy prices will increase the cost of energy intensive products such as aluminum or steel but the ratio of price increase isn't 1 to 1.
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Re: Uranium Supply

Postby PraiseDoom » Mon 28 May 2007, 11:04:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')
Now can we go back to talking about Uranium Supply?



Yes! How about this...it'll never work. Uranium ore prices have skyrocketed from like $30/ton to $120/ton in just the past 6 months or so, right? So now not only do we have to come up with the odd gazillion dollars for construction of the new plant, but we've got to pay for 4X increases in the fuel for them?

So not only do we have peak oil and peak coal, but this increase in prices must obviously be peak uranium as well, right? No new plants being built, the Duncan cliff starting any minute now, decreasing EROEI which won't even allow the plants to get started in the first place, may as well pack it in Tyler, find a local survivalist group and hope they like your looks and will let you in in exchange for various personal favors.

It might be your only chance, if you haven't already made arangements for riding out the zombie waves, mass relocations, starvation, and everything else in the books when civilization grinds to a halt.
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Re: Uranium Supply

Postby Tyler_JC » Mon 28 May 2007, 13:28:36

I split the conversation about cheeseburgers and child mortality into a new thread in the open forum.

I think I was the one to get us off topic in the first place... :oops:

Please go back to discussing uranium supply, breeder reactors, and stuff like that.
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Re: Uranium Supply

Postby PraiseDoom » Mon 28 May 2007, 14:17:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'I') split the conversation about cheeseburgers and child mortality into a new thread in the open forum.

I think I was the one to get us off topic in the first place... :oops:

Please go back to discussing uranium supply, breeder reactors, and stuff like that.


Breeder reactors? Does any such thing even exist in the US, or is it just another pipe dream by people scared to face reality?
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Re: Uranium Supply

Postby matt21811 » Mon 28 May 2007, 18:15:43

Can anyone tell me how many kilograms (fraction thereof) of uranium metal are made from a kilo of yellowcake?

Perhaps this is a silly question. Is the price per kilo for uranium a price for the metal or the price for yellowcake?
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Re: Uranium Supply

Postby FishAreBest » Mon 28 May 2007, 20:21:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('matt21811', 'C')an anyone tell me how many kilograms (fraction thereof) of uranium metal are made from a kilo of yellowcake?

Perhaps this is a silly question. Is the price per kilo for uranium a price for the metal or the price for yellowcake?


It's been over 20 years since I studied chemistry, so this may not be right...

The price quoted is for uranium oxide (U3O8). Each molecule consists of 3 atoms of uranium (atomic mass ~238) and 8 atoms of oxygen (atomic mass ~16).

Hence the U3O8 contains (3x238)/(3x238+8x16)=85% uranium by weight and 15% oxygen.
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Postby kolm » Tue 29 May 2007, 08:48:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sheb', '
')ROI is a pretty simple concept, and really quite useful--"silly" or not.
ditto for EROEI. We're just dealing in Joules instead of $'s as the measure of value.


When considering ROI you have two well-defined systems (a guy with money and the rest of the world), a very simple and explicit way to derive numerator and denominator and general agreement about sensible utility functions to evaluate ROI with.

In EROEI, you need the same level of clarity to make it a useful concept. This is not a given in many references to EROEI I studied. Worse, you can derive highly strange EROEI if you just set your parameters in a sufficiently weird way. For instance, you can count all energy input (which guarantees, in a conveniently enlarged system, an EROEI of <= 1 due to thermodynamics), not only the 'currently usable' part of it. (A similar thing is done by stupider nuclear power opponents to demonstrate that nuclear power is inefficient. They do use EROEI, only with idiotic parameters (energy within U-235 core counts as 'energy input', although there is exactly one usage known to man, namely splitting it for heat), and hence get meaningless results.) Next topic, do you include indirect 'energy inputs' (somebody needs to bake the rolls the engineers eat for lunch; somebody had to teach the bakers how to bake them, somebody had to make the paper for the baker's diploma, you get the idea) or not? If not, you might miss some major points (energy investment for drilling rigs), if yes, you have a huge accounting problem (find, check, weight and sum all those indirect energy contributions will be impossible to do exactly in most cases, hence you would need approximate guesses, and you can look up in Storm/van Leeuwen where this can lead to).

And, last not least, unlike ROI, people usually do not read EROEI as a linear utility. People do not mind that much if EROEI 20 is or 15; unless the bulk of economical cost is within the (direct) energy investment, this is a minor cost factor.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Now, show us how you run a reactor that produces more energy in fuel than it consumes...and make sure you describe your assumptions (they must be valid).


This, for instance, is a question which heavily depends on your specification which kinds of Joules you want to count as 'input energy' and which you want to count as 'output energy'. Depending on how you settle this, breeder reactors can or cannot have EROEI > 1, and oil well can or cannot have EROEI > 1, and so on.
Last edited by kolm on Thu 31 May 2007, 04:18:22, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Uranium Supply

Postby Tanada » Tue 29 May 2007, 19:43:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('matt21811', '
')Perhaps this is a silly question. Is the price per kilo for uranium a price for the metal or the price for yellowcake?


Uranium contracts trade in pounds of U3O8 aka yellowcake. One pound is 454 grams.
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Re: Uranium Supply

Postby Sideous » Fri 01 Jun 2007, 06:09:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'I') split the conversation about cheeseburgers and child mortality into a new thread in the open forum.

I think I was the one to get us off topic in the first place... :oops:

Please go back to discussing uranium supply, breeder reactors, and stuff like that.


Breeder reactors? Does any such thing even exist in the US, or is it just another pipe dream by people scared to face reality?


Yes. The US built and operated the Enric Fermi reactor in the 1950s, so there is nothing particularly radical or far-out about the idea of expanding this concept for bulk power production.

It hasn't been done yet, for the simple reason that it hasn't been neccesary. The US fleet of PWRs has produced power at low prices in recent years (competing strongly with power produced from old coal burning plants). Breeder reactors have higher capital costs and recent fuel prices simply do not justify the additional expense.

Present uranium prices are the result of under-investmnet in new mining capacity, largely due to the abundance of weapons grade uranium and MOX on the world market.
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Re: Uranium Supply

Postby M_B_S » Tue 05 Jun 2007, 15:19:29

Hi Guys!

Here I am with 138/lb = 305$/kg

http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/stor ... 13,00.html


Peak Oil = Peak Uranium


Uranium is no solution to peak oil it is another problem

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Re: Uranium Supply

Postby PraiseDoom » Tue 05 Jun 2007, 15:30:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('M_B_S', '
')

Peak Oil = Peak Uranium


Interesting concept. So...if Peak oil doesn't trigger the big dieoff, we can count on Peak uranium arriving at EXACTLY the same time and making it worse? Has potential for The Church Of Doom.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('M_B_S', '
')
Uranium is no solution to peak oil it is another problem



Another interesting concept, but completely wrong I think. If anything torpedo's the Church Of Doom its solar energy being utilized well in the form of PV's or nukes being built all over the place. But throw Peak Uranium into the mix and that could knock out one leg of the 2 possible remaining solutions I suppose.
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Re: Uranium Supply

Postby M_B_S » Fri 08 Jun 2007, 05:47:16

Housten we are in big trouble!

Buyer or Seller uranium is the problem

Cameco’s Melbye pointed out that world supply would have to increase by 52 percent in 2025 to keep pace with demand. He also indicated that this increased supply would have to grow by 18 percent above what is already being forecast by then. Source: World Nuclear Association, 2005.
**************************

Sorry but this is impossible!

PEAK OIL = PEAK URANIUM

M_B_S


Rio Tinto shares burning down :twisted:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... =australia
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Re: Uranium Supply

Postby Tanada » Fri 08 Jun 2007, 07:32:46

Why exactly is this impossible?

Prove it.
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Re: Uranium Supply

Postby M_B_S » Fri 08 Jun 2007, 10:54:24

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Re: Uranium Supply

Postby Tyler_JC » Fri 08 Jun 2007, 13:44:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('M_B_S', 'Y')es Tanada

http://www.energiekrise.de/uran/docs200 ... 2-2006.pdf

:!: :!: :!:

see oildrum :twisted:


"The proved reserves (=reasonably assured below 40 $/kgU extraction cost) and stocks will be
exhausted within the next 30 years at current annual demand."
(quote from page 4 of that report)

Well considering that $40 per kilogram is equal to roughly $18 a pound...that statement is nonsense.

We are already trading at over $100 per pound.

Uranium extraction has nothing to do with Hubbert's Theory regarding peak oil.

Uranium, like all other resources, is mined according to economics, not geology.

Give me $500 per pound uranium (still cheap enough to produce nuclear power at a lower cost than natural gas) and I'll show you another couple centuries worth of fissible material.
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Re: Uranium Supply

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Fri 08 Jun 2007, 14:49:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'G')ive me $500 per pound uranium (still cheap enough to produce nuclear power at a lower cost than natural gas) and I'll show you another couple centuries worth of fissible material.

I wonder what EROEI such material would have, but I bet it is likely to be <1.
So $500/lb uranium may not be worth mining, as long as current reactor technology is concerned.
Without thorium cycle or FBR nuclear power is a dead end and it will run out of fuel within several decades assuming current level of demand.
So we either swich into thorium cycle timely, and I don't observe any efforts yet, invent civilian FBR technology (not here yet, few attempts had failed...), work out good EROEI uranium recovery from sea water (no practical technology is known for that) or assume, that nuclear age will be over by the end of this century at the latest.
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Re: Uranium Supply

Postby matt21811 » Wed 13 Jun 2007, 20:02:31

I am very excited to be Australian right now.
If we hit $1000 a kilo (which is, apparently, only about triple what it is now), I can see Australia expanding its production to 50,000 tons a year. The political will not to do it will fade rapidly.
It would add 50 billion to our GDP or about and extra 10% for a cost of about 20,000 workers.

We have 1.1 million tons of reserves at $130 per kilo. 22 years worth at that rate. The government could tax the other $870 for an extra $40 Billion a year in revenue. Thats about an extra quarter to what they get now.
Another bonus is that the annual trade deficit would turn into a surplus over night. Of course the increase in the Australian dollar would probably offset it but that just means imported goods would be much cheaper.

I guess Canadians will also be excited but with their 50% larger population and lower reservse the spoils may not go as far.
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Re: Uranium Supply

Postby kolm » Thu 14 Jun 2007, 05:03:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')Well considering that $40 per kilogram is equal to roughly $18 a pound...that statement is nonsense.

We are already trading at over $100 per pound.


On the spot market. This only partially affects long term contracts; similarly to the partial effect of too low prices in the 80s. By the way, the fact that the U3O8 spot price affects the wholesome trading business only partially is one of the reasons for the high volatility and sensitivity of it.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Uranium extraction has nothing to do with Hubbert's Theory regarding peak oil.


To be very picky, it has a lot do with Hubbert's Theory, for IMHO it was the whole point of Hubbert's paper to demonstrate that the energy future beyond 2000 would have to be nuclear and not oil, simply because of the differences in orders of magnitude of available energy from the sources.
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