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Electricity Demand in USA

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.
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Re: Electricity Demand in USA

Unread postby NoLogos » Wed 16 May 2007, 07:59:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DYBoulet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'I') think most power plants are coal and natural gas based. PO will not effect those too much in the short term. Here is what will happen. Peak oil will cause gasoline prices to sky rocket, which will cause everything imaginable to rise, causing a massive financial meltdown. This is right around the corner. Within 12 months. This entire friggen system is about to blow.


My thoughts exactly. :shock:


I'm a bit of a doomer, but I don't see it quite that way. I think the 'system' is stretching itself thinner and thinner. As gasoline gets scarce, prices go up (of course) and there is less inventory. A small refinery outage causes local shortages. In short, the jam is spread pretty thin on the bread.
So what will happen? With the increasing stress on the system, a small disruption will have a large effect. I'm waiting and inadequately preparing for :cry: a large disruption. Something Katrina sized-which the PTB will blame for the power grid collapse.
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Re: Electricity Demand in USA

Unread postby Newsseeker » Wed 16 May 2007, 08:04:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NoLogos', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DYBoulet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'I') think most power plants are coal and natural gas based. PO will not effect those too much in the short term. Here is what will happen. Peak oil will cause gasoline prices to sky rocket, which will cause everything imaginable to rise, causing a massive financial meltdown. This is right around the corner. Within 12 months. This entire friggen system is about to blow.


My thoughts exactly. :shock:


I'm a bit of a doomer, but I don't see it quite that way. I think the 'system' is stretching itself thinner and thinner. As gasoline gets scarce, prices go up (of course) and there is less inventory. A small refinery outage causes local shortages. In short, the jam is spread pretty thin on the bread.
So what will happen? With the increasing stress on the system, a small disruption will have a large effect. I'm waiting and inadequately preparing for :cry: a large disruption. Something Katrina sized-which the PTB will blame for the power grid collapse.


I'm a bit of a doomer too. I agree with what you are saying and I see disruptions increasing over time until the system becomes unmanageable.
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Re: Electricity Demand in USA

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 16 May 2007, 11:06:13

Twilight said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he transition is going to be a problem. It is not something that can be accomplished without experiencing failures along the way, to which our spoiled masses are not accustomed.


I couldn’t agree with you more on this perspective. The wailing and crying is going to be tremendous, “the power went out and I can’t see my soap opera”, poor me! As an old girl friend of my used to say, “get over it”. That term used to aggravate me no end, now I can’t wait to say it.

We are going to have to learn a whole new set of old skills to make this transition; the ipod and cell phone era is coming to a brutal end - thank god!
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Re: Electricity Demand in USA

Unread postby pea-jay » Thu 17 May 2007, 01:21:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', 'N')ot only that, but most gas pumps are electric, so if just part of the grid goes down, that area has no gas or diesel. If I'm not mistaken most of the pumps in oil and gasoline pipelines are electric too and all those "nodding donkeys" pumping out older fields are electric. It's all interconnected and vulnerable to failure at multiple points. Once one of the systems starts breaking down, they all do.


Dont forget one the largest consumers of electricity are oil refineries themselves. Huge power users. WHen the power goes out, the refinery is out of commission for at least 12-18 hours after the power comes on.

Plus they do this for hours after the lights go out
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Re: Electricity Demand in USA

Unread postby SILENTTODD » Sat 19 May 2007, 04:14:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrMambo', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SILENTTODD', 'I') have always maintained it will not be the primary sources or generators that collapse first in the Electrical/ Telco. It will be the infrastructure. The wires, the cables, the repeaters.

Unless there is the legion of field technicians that with their gas guzzling trucks available; most of the infrastructure will disappear within a year.

Water may last longer, I know nothing about it. But I do know the water purification systems rely on electricity. So take your choice which is most vulnerable.


I don't know how you back up your claims. When peak oil hits.. it wont be like 90% is gone in a year, it will be more like 1-3%. How large do you think the "legion" of technicians really are say in the USA? 500 000 people? A million people? Even with 2 million infrastructure technicians that will be less than one percent of the US population. And since most americans drive large SUV's already I don't see that the grid maintanance is all that energy demanding and oil demanding, relatively.

The only way you will have "most of the infrastructure will disappear within a year" is for there to be massive physical attacks on the powerlines and the related infrastructure from som sort of wild mob.

So do you think that the mob will destroy the grid? Or do you think 100-200 dollar/barrel oil will do it. Me I don't think its probable that any of those will finish the grid. Rather I think people will start taking better care of the grid.


Hadn’t had a chance to review posts on this till today,

Mr. MrMambo, I back up my claims from 10 years experience as an at&t DS1 Provisioning, and now DS1 and DS3 Maintenance tester in California. DS1 and DS3 are currently the backbone of the telco system in this country for cell sites, sales, industry, you name it.

I still hold by my claim if the legions of Field Techs (what everybody use to call Installers, or Repair Techs) were not able to service the infrastructure, most of it would collapse within a year.

This is if No servicing were to occur. I agree, this not how I believe things will unravel in the near future. With a shortage of fuel government will ration. Soccer Moms in SUV’s you’re screwed, learn to walk, or get a Bike!

I believe Farming, Utilities (Water, Power, and Telco), Military/Police, and Fire, will initially get all they need. But this cannot go on forever as anyone who is reading this knows.

The point I was making is the infrastructure will break down though lack of maintenance long before the generators or telco central offices are cut off from power. Maintenance will be deferred to the point where one day things go down, and stay down.
Skeptical scrutiny in both Science and Religion is the means by which deep thoughts are winnowed from deep nonsense-Carl Sagan
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