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THE US Fossil Fuel Stockpiles Thread (merged)

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: US gas stockpiles "lowest in 16 years"

Unread postby KevO » Mon 14 May 2007, 07:18:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrMambo', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', '
')
we've peaked haven't we? :cry:


Very wierd to read such articles naming a bunch of facts related to current scarcity of oil supply and a understated hint about why the prices are currently going up.

Its like the author of the article really would like to draw more general conclutions and sound a larger alarm bell, but doesnt wan't to come across as having political bias or having an agenda.

I have a fealing that he reduces what he really would like to say to a sombre listing of facts that would have supported his arguments if he had dared to put them in writing.

I have a fealing he would like to scream "Warning this could be it! This is the beginning of the postPeak-era! Get ready for large changes to the way we live and the way we think abou
t the economy and world!"



lol. Yes you're right. I read the article again and it does come over like he's packing his rucksack as he writes!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ommodity Broking's Barratt said. ``There is a tremendous shortage. I can see prices continue to try a lot higher.''


we're here!!
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Re: US gasoline stockpiles "lowest in 16 years"

Unread postby Newsseeker » Mon 14 May 2007, 07:51:30

I think this definitely will be an interesting summer but the question is will it be a wakeup call?
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Re: US gasoline stockpiles "lowest in 16 years"

Unread postby Nano » Mon 14 May 2007, 08:16:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newsseeker', 'I') think this definitely will be an interesting summer but the question is will it be a wakeup call?


No, because "it's just a refinery problem". And it is, actually. No wakeup calls until 2015 is my guess.
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Re: US gasoline stockpiles "lowest in 16 years"

Unread postby KevO » Mon 14 May 2007, 08:20:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nano', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newsseeker', 'I') think this definitely will be an interesting summer but the question is will it be a wakeup call?


No, because "it's just a refinery problem". And it is, actually. No wakeup calls until 2015 is my guess.


would you put your money into building a new refinery when the world's leading energy investement bank, Simmons Co, says not to?
like they should know
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Re: US gasoline stockpiles "lowest in 16 years"

Unread postby PraiseDoom » Mon 14 May 2007, 09:32:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', '$')5 on the way

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')he U.S. raised concern gasoline might run short this summer.


full article

we've peaked haven't we? :cry:


A year or more ago. Took long enough for SOMETHING to happen.
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Re: US gasoline stockpiles "lowest in 16 years"

Unread postby Nano » Mon 14 May 2007, 10:19:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nano', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newsseeker', 'I') think this definitely will be an interesting summer but the question is will it be a wakeup call?


No, because "it's just a refinery problem". And it is, actually. No wakeup calls until 2015 is my guess.


would you put your money into building a new refinery when the world's leading energy investement bank, Simmons Co, says not to?
like they should know


I wouldn't build a new one, but I'd retrofit an old one to handle heavy/sour crude better ...;) It's a refinery problem, see?
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Locking Gas Caps

Unread postby Peak_Oil_Pat » Mon 14 May 2007, 11:10:34

Also, if you're planning on stockpiling gas in your car's tank you might want to invest in a locking gas cap-since most gas caps these days are non-locking. People up in Canada are already starting to have problems with siphoning:
http://www.canada.com/theprovince/news/ ... b6c5f68616

Just imagine how much $$$ is in your tank with $5 gal gas, for me that'd be about $85.

Locking gas caps are cheap, I just got one for my Camry for $23.
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Re: Stockpiling Gas?

Unread postby Mechler » Mon 14 May 2007, 11:56:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mechler', '
')Here's the site where I bought the gaskets:
British Pacific

They're charging $2.75 per gasket (maybe it's a set of three?) which seems expensive, but there aren't too many alternatives.


The gaskets arrived and provide a nice seal.

I plan on cycling through the stored gas often, so I don't have to deal with degradation problems.
"It is certain that free societies would have no easy time in a future dark age. The rapid return to universal penury will be accomplished by violence and cruelties of a kind now forgotten." - Roberto Vacca, The Coming Dark Age
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Re: Stockpiling Gas?

Unread postby Sheb » Mon 14 May 2007, 12:23:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mechler', '
')The gaskets arrived and provide a nice seal.

I plan on cycling through the stored gas often, so I don't have to deal with degradation problems.


Did they end up being $2.75/piece, or for set of 3?
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Re: US gasoline stockpiles "lowest in 16 years"

Unread postby birchm » Mon 14 May 2007, 16:09:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', 'w')e've peaked haven't we? :cry:


The world C+C peaked in November of 2005. Now we're seeing the effect of eating up all of our reserves.
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Re: US gasoline stockpiles "lowest in 16 years"

Unread postby DantesPeak » Mon 14 May 2007, 17:00:22

The world does not have much in the way of strategic or commercial gasoline (and similar product) reserves. World transportation fuel demand started exceeding supply back in 2005, but it has basically taken about two years for the world transportation fuel inventories to be reduced to the point where this low inventory problem has become fairly obvious. During the time those few reserves were used up, it appeared that supplies were still sufficient. Supply shortfalls are not a reality that the energy industry wants to accept, and even now, analysts such as those at Petroleum Intelligence Weekly say those that predicting gasoline shortages this year are ‘hysterical’.

Here’s something from a writer for OPIS and Petroleum Intelligence Weekly talking about “hysterical rants and hyperbole” from the likes of – well, us here. Never mind that this person predicted lower prices, but now prices were recently more than 20 cents/gallon higher than April 6.

OPIS net
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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Re: US gasoline stockpiles "lowest in 16 years"

Unread postby pup55 » Mon 14 May 2007, 18:19:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he notion of gasoline futures shedding 53cts gal later this Spring might appear far-fetched at the moment, but be patient



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'n')ationwide pump prices should not make an assault on $3.00 gal between now and say, the first satellite pictures of tropical convection this Summer.



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')IA staff are among the most competent people I know in government, but motorists are not using this much gasoline. The numbers have been overstated for some time. Those with a vested interest in higher prices - - particularly Wall Street investment counselors who have a stake in crude or gasoline rallies - - will quote this figure, but it represents a quirk


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')peaking Appearances
July 2007
Oregon Petroleum Marketers Association, 7/16-7/19, Sunriver, OR

October 2007
OPIS National Supply Summit, 10/29-10/30, Lake Las Vegas, NV


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') magna cum laude graduate of St. Francis University, Tom has a degree in English

(sigh)
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Re: US gasoline stockpiles "lowest in 16 years"

Unread postby ColossalContrarian » Mon 14 May 2007, 19:00:59

double post
Last edited by ColossalContrarian on Mon 14 May 2007, 19:01:37, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: US gasoline stockpiles "lowest in 16 years"

Unread postby ColossalContrarian » Mon 14 May 2007, 19:01:18

Not to get off-topic, maybe it's time for a Tom Klonza prediction/bashing thread??? Some of Tom’s other blog entries.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he case for a nationwide $3.00 gal national average has been weakened substantially in the last week. We may be within a few pennies of the 2007 pre-hurricane season top, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see prices below $2.75 gal on the first day of Summer.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')I clearly do not believe that the second quarter of 2007 will break previous records. So, despite all of the rhetoric and concern, the next three months will see consumers have a wee bit more spending power than they had in 2006, at least for the fuel portion of their budgets.
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Re: US gasoline stockpiles "lowest in 16 years"

Unread postby billp » Mon 14 May 2007, 19:27:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'h')as a degree in English


As liberal arts [limited arts] educated at Whitman college who then went to Purdue [engineering and agriculture] for MS and PhD degrees I have some insight into BS education.

And as a former college prof [scroll down] as well as computer hardware/software worker, I have some comments of college education.

Book learning. BS.

Try doing a real-world project and get a real education.

My avatar [new word for me]. Book published by Harper & Row in 1969.

I was on sabbatical leave at computer science dept at UI Champaign-Urbana in 1972-3. UI computer science had at that time an IBM 360 model 75. One reason I got job at UI.


Real projects are more fun and educating than book learning [memorizing as opposed to learning something new and thinking-out a solution to a problem].

And you meet new interesting people too.
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Re: US gasoline stockpiles "lowest in 16 years"

Unread postby vision-master » Mon 14 May 2007, 20:20:08

Back in it's day, I managed to write an entire software application using Dbase. It took me about 4 years as I didn't even now how to use DOS or a computer when I started. Yup, nothing better than teaching yourself.
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Re: US gasoline stockpiles "lowest in 16 years"

Unread postby killJOY » Mon 14 May 2007, 20:59:27

*cough, cough* [a brief off topic comment]:

I was an English major. I now teach writing as an adjunct. Projects include evolution and the bible . . . and peak oil.

That's just my job, it's not who I am. I consider myself more a farmer than anything else, albeit a tiny one.


(Signature is a quote from "Othello." billp: literature ain't "book learning.")
Peak oil = comet Kohoutek.
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Re: US gasoline stockpiles "lowest in 16 years"

Unread postby pup55 » Mon 14 May 2007, 21:52:56

Note: The (sigh) was general, and not directed at English majors, but more aimed at the fact that this guy can be flamboyantly incorrect but still manage to have people come to his seminar in Vegas, and be a talking head on various TV networks, etc. etc.

I guess one of the things you learn after 25 years as an "industry analyst" is that if you are gloomy, rich people will not come to your seminars. Far better to be Mr. Sunshine.
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Re: US gasoline stockpiles "lowest in 16 years"

Unread postby joewp » Mon 14 May 2007, 22:08:47

Interestingly enough, the offices of the OPIS are about a 15 minute drive from my house. Do you think that if I stopped by with some material from Hubbert, ASPO, the Oil Drum, and even the recent EIA oil production numbers, he might lose his Mr. Sunshine facade and turn into a doomer?

Nah, probably not.
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Re: US gasoline stockpiles "lowest in 16 years"

Unread postby Laurasia » Mon 14 May 2007, 22:12:32

I was looking at the site 321energy today on my lunch break. In the article "Fireworks in the Energy Sector; Explosive Move to the Upside" by Joseph Dancy, it states:

While inventories dropped, demand for gasoline in the U.S. continues to climb to record levels. Demand increased year over year by more than 2.2% according to government data. Measured on a days of supply basis, the inventory level has dropped to just under 21 days of demand – the lowest level in the last 50 years.

This guy is also forecasting crude at well above $70.00 a barrel before July 4th.

I've sent out my standard gasoline alert emails to my sons (i.e. don't let your gasoline tank get below half-full before you top it up!).

There are times when I have to fight panic.

Regards,

L.
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