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Gasoline Inventory issue: Worse than I thought

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Worse than I thought

Unread postby billp » Fri 11 May 2007, 22:07:46

Pup55

I was on sabbatical leave in 1972-3 at U Illinois Urbana Champaign.

And I went to work for Sandia labs in 1980.

This gas [oil, natural gas, coal, water,..] crisis may be much worse than all before if, in fact, we have now past peak productions.

We will see.

We're working on a legasl crisis ... and hopefully will win.
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Re: Worse than I thought

Unread postby pup55 » Sat 12 May 2007, 07:43:47

Ay Caramba! Crisis is right!

Anyway you are right, the twin problems of the pre-disco and disco eras had this in common: we still had the resources to eventually get out of them. Although annoying, they at least were not permanent, and I think we kind of knew it at the time.

But if the next crisis occurs and we find out that we cannot go back, the approach will have to be different: I suppose we will have to go through the four stages of grief or whatever, and the survivors figure out how to cope.
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Re: Worse than I thought

Unread postby Gazzatrone » Sat 12 May 2007, 09:19:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', 'I') wish the price would just jump to $4.50 or more. Yeah, it might hurt some industries, cause some pain, but consumption needs to be cut and fast.


Why should consumption need to be cut? And why do you want Die Off to start? No seriously, what motivates you to want these things.

So many people bang on about cutting consumption in a vain hope to put off the inevitable. Which ever way you look at it, regardless of how much you consume, inevitably you are still consuming. The bottomline being that there is only one outcome.

If you cut consumption you actually speed up the transistion as cutting fuel is the same as running out. And who wants that? Noone on here really wants the life that will happen when TSHTF (well maybe not everyone, I can think of a few annihilists on here). So why, by demanding cuts in consumption would you want it sooner?

I have to question your reasoning, either you have shares in renewables or unemployed no hoper who wants to end it all with everyone around you going the same way, taking morbid pleasure in that fact.
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Re: Worse than I thought

Unread postby DoubleD » Sat 12 May 2007, 09:46:41

The end of the word as we know it.... is not the end of the world.

There is the potential for a life that includes humans - but on a more sustainable scenario. It would be a much smaller population worldwide, and it would not be the "life" we know today.

I don't consider it doomerish to wish for a transition from the completely unsustainable - to something that works. Sadly, the chaos and loss in between will be horrendous and many will not make it to the next phase of human existence.... but the alternative is that no one will.
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Re: Worse than I thought

Unread postby Pops » Sat 12 May 2007, 11:47:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AP', 'W')orse than I thought


Yea, me too, at least faster than I thought.

Someone once said hope for the best but plan for the worst.

That is really much harder than it sounds. Keeping ones optimism while planning for some of the realistic (let alone the not so realistic) situations is hard – and vice versa.

Especially hard to be optimistic when those situations seem to be appearing on the horizon.

I think folks should be thinking seriously about Plan A - before they are forced into Plan B.

O’course I have been wrong before.
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Re: Worse than I thought

Unread postby ColossalContrarian » Sat 12 May 2007, 11:59:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gazzatrone', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', 'I') wish the price would just jump to $4.50 or more. Yeah, it might hurt some industries, cause some pain, but consumption needs to be cut and fast.


Why should consumption need to be cut? And why do you want Die Off to start? No seriously, what motivates you to want these things.


I'll tell you what motivates me about higher gas prices to force conservation among the masses. Maybe the sooner the pain starts, the sooner it'll end? Kinda like pulling a bandage off quickly versus slowly...

Maybe rather than "partying on" and leaving the mess for our kids we can get the ball rolling so they aren't surprised by what’s coming?

I'm not talking mass die off and ceasing to use oil but a nice price jump will knock the consumers off their pedestals and show them the realities of the future energy crisis.
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Re: Worse than I thought

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 12 May 2007, 12:20:32

Gazzatrone said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]frankthetank wrote:

I wish the price would just jump to $4.50 or more. Yeah, it might hurt some industries, cause some pain, but consumption needs to be cut and fast.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') have to question your reasoning, either you have shares in renewables or unemployed no hoper who wants to end it all with everyone around you going the same way, taking morbid pleasure in that fact.


Interesting, you interpreted his statement as that of taking morbid pleasure, I read his statement as an expression of unmitigated fear. Something sort of like climbing down from a tree, and finding that the lion that you climbed up to escape is still there - waiting for you!
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Re: Worse than I thought

Unread postby Gazzatrone » Sat 12 May 2007, 16:51:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '[')b]Gazzatrone said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]frankthetank wrote:

I wish the price would just jump to $4.50 or more. Yeah, it might hurt some industries, cause some pain, but consumption needs to be cut and fast.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') have to question your reasoning, either you have shares in renewables or unemployed no hoper who wants to end it all with everyone around you going the same way, taking morbid pleasure in that fact.


Interesting, you interpreted his statement as that of taking morbid pleasure, I read his statement as an expression of unmitigated fear. Something sort of like climbing down from a tree, and finding that the lion that you climbed up to escape is still there - waiting for you!


When using phrases such as "I wish" and consumption needs to be, these are very subjective uses of language, these are not of unmitigated fear but desire. Which is the exact reason why I question the writers motives. Why should consumption need to be cut fast? It's not going to halt anything that we already know. I just get the impression old frank sits at his computer reading Doomer Porn and salivating at the thought of growing Human tragedy being relayed to him on CNN.

The joke will be on him however when he leaves his armchair to go to the store to get fresh supplies of beer.
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Re: Worse than I thought

Unread postby joewp » Sat 12 May 2007, 17:01:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sabibaby', '
')I'll tell you what motivates me about higher gas prices to force conservation among the masses. Maybe the sooner the pain starts, the sooner it'll end? Kinda like pulling a bandage off quickly versus slowly...

Maybe rather than "partying on" and leaving the mess for our kids we can get the ball rolling so they aren't surprised by what’s coming?

I'm not talking mass die off and ceasing to use oil but a nice price jump will knock the consumers off their pedestals and show them the realities of the future energy crisis.


Unfortunately, gasoline prices don't exist in a vacuum, and driving miles don't either. As prices rise, people have less to spend on other things, which results in reduced retail sales, and as people start to drive less (because of high prices) other parts of the economy will suffer(tourism and auto-related industry). It's a snowball effect that will result in more and more layoffs, with the resulting decrease in consumer spending, which will result in even more layoffs. And with the US consumer spending more than he earns (the infamous negative savings rate) this will affect financial markets as well.

There's nothing to stop it either, since once foreclosures and bankruptcies happen above a certain rate, the money supply will start to collapse. The credit bubble didn't exist in the 1970s. The leverage effect of credit works both ways, up and down. It's probably worse than AP thinks it is now. :cry:
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Re: Worse than I thought

Unread postby sdcoyote » Sat 12 May 2007, 17:18:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AP', 'W')orse than I thought


Yea, me too, at least faster than I thought.

Someone once said hope for the best but plan for the worst.

That is really much harder than it sounds. Keeping ones optimism while planning for some of the realistic (let alone the not so realistic) situations is hard – and vice versa.

Especially hard to be optimistic when those situations seem to be appearing on the horizon.

I think folks should be thinking seriously about Plan A - before they are forced into Plan B.

O’course I have been wrong before.


I do not post often, but have read this board every day for a couple of years. I have come to know many folks' philosophy and temperment.

Having said that...

Pops, when your customary caution wanes, it is time to batten down the hatches.
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Re: Worse than I thought

Unread postby Pops » Sat 12 May 2007, 17:44:13

I think so too Coy, nothing drastic unless one is very vulnerable.

But perhaps assessing the pantry and reassessing the entire situation might be beneficial in the short and medium term.

Couldn’t hurt in any event.
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Re: Worse than I thought

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 12 May 2007, 19:57:34

Gazzatrone said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hen using phrases such as "I wish" and consumption needs to be, these are very subjective uses of language, these are not of unmitigated fear but desire.


Perhaps you are determining meaning using subjective analysis; frankthetank may be keenly aware of the circumstances and he might be using euphemisms to mitigate his responses. From reading his other posts, I would be inclined to believe the later is true.

There is no doubt that we are fast approaching a crisis situation, skyrocketing gasoline prices world wide, a very high likely hood of shortages in the US. Immense economic instability in the world market place is rapidly building; subprime collapse and now Alta-A trillions are unraveling in the financial markets. The realization that many more trillions of AAA bonds invested in by foreign money are in actuality junk in disguise. The Shanghai market place has increased its activity by %1000 in six months. We have one huge bubble growing throughout the world’s economy and we have reached peak oil.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he joke will be on him however when he leaves his armchair to go to the store to get fresh supplies of beer.


Will the joke be on you when he gets there and there is no beer? At that point, I doubt if he will care!
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Re: Worse than I thought

Unread postby tmazanec1 » Sat 12 May 2007, 20:40:27

I hope that prices rise to where it is sensible to invest in renewables and alternate energy, and to minimize consumption. Then maybe we can reach the thing I hope for (a nanotech future).
What I hope for and what I get may be two different things, of course.
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Re: Worse than I thought

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Sat 12 May 2007, 21:19:39

An orderly and positive worldwide economic environment will be needed to "get there". IMHO this is not what is going down. Even if any collapse is slow the time to do something, anything, is basically passed. The only hope now is to mitigate the downside, and even that seems like it's probably too late.
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Re: Worse than I thought

Unread postby roccman » Sat 12 May 2007, 21:29:23

I don't think "balanced" is in the plan...

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid ... 8861&hl=en
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Re: Worse than I thought

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 12 May 2007, 22:38:15

AirlinePilot said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')n orderly and positive worldwide economic environment will be needed to "get there". IMHO this is not what is going down. Even if any collapse is slow the time to do something, anything, is basically passed. The only hope now is to mitigate the downside, and even that seems like it's probably too late.


I once believed that due to the sheer size of the world’s economy that the retrenchment would have to be slow. After watching the capers of the world’s economic masters for the last few years, I now have to believe that they will ride this horse until he stumbles and goes down in one big pile. The main reason “the time to do something, anything, is basically passed”, is because to this point we have done absolutely nothing. It is almost like we are trying to bring the whole thing down on our own heads? It is truly bizarre!
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Re: Worse than I thought

Unread postby Denny » Sat 12 May 2007, 23:45:27

We will all know gas prices are too high when the month comes in which consumption starts to decine, Right now year over year consumtion consumpltion has been increasing, not decreasing. Everybody likes to gripe. But, we are not yet motivated to change our ways.

But, I am starting to think of better options for commuting.

When the consumers feel motivated to actually change habits to adapt that will mark the point in which producers get competitive on pricing.

Its the infamous "invisible hand" that Adam Smith wrote about three centuries ago. Just as true in the 21st centuryas it was in the 18th.
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Re: Worse than I thought

Unread postby DantesPeak » Sat 12 May 2007, 23:50:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'A')n orderly and positive worldwide economic environment will be needed to "get there". IMHO this is not what is going down. Even if any collapse is slow the time to do something, anything, is basically passed. The only hope now is to mitigate the downside, and even that seems like it's probably too late.


The US and the rest of the world's energy industry largely failed to adjust its refinery capacity to the changing volumes, locations, and quality of crude oil. This problem should have been obvious to those in the industry, yet they either didn't plan for it or thought adjusting to the new reality of PO was unprofitable – or both.

If the energy industry failed to mitigate its own problems, and missed an opportunity to perhaps make billions of $s more in profits, then it appears that capitalism in general will be slow to mitigate the problems associated with PO.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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Re: Worse than I thought

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 12 May 2007, 23:55:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sabibaby', 'I')'ll tell you what motivates me about higher gas prices to force conservation among the masses.


And how does a reduction in economic activity, with the accompanying job and business losses, help?

Conservation will just lower the price which increases consumption.

Jevon's Paradox.

You mean rationing, don't you?
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Re: Worse than I thought

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 12 May 2007, 23:59:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tmazanec1', 'I') hope that prices rise to where it is sensible to invest in renewables and alternate energy, and to minimize consumption.


How can you massively invest in renewables and alternate energy and minimize consumption at the same time?

Energy doesn't care what it gets used for.

You are just switching the end use.
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