[MrMambo]

Its sort of an accepted truth here on the board that oil is required for industrial agriculture.

I must admit I havent read a whole ot about the issue. But since I'm from Norway where we have produced fertilizers through electricity (Hydro/Yara) and the electricity in Norway is 99% hydro-electric, its safe to say that energy input into the fertilizer bit of our agriculture is mainly from renewable sources.

Of course the farm equipment in norway runs on diesel and gasoline and therefore have an oil-input. But since automobiles can be run on electric batteries so can also farm eqipment. Therefore I see a possibility to do both farming work and food transport driven on renewable energy. For this to work for norway one would just have to add a couple of windfarms along our windy cost or even offshore in our costal waters.

I don't know if all the mineral inputs to the fertilizers can be sustained. But certainly Kalium (potassium) neccerary for the KNO3 fertilizer is richlyt available in seawater, and seawater based deposits.

So my question is: Has anybody looked into the possibility of converting industrial agriculture from oil as energy input to renewable electricity, and if so can it be done?

My hunch is that it should be possible. But I guess it would all fall down if the material inputs (such as minerals) can not be sustained.

[RdSnt]

Does Norway not import some of its food? Are you completely self-sustaining? By which I mean basic foodstuffs, not just luxury items.

Some agricultural production can be maintained with renewables. The problem is the density of energy input. You have to think of it in two ways, both the amount of energy per hectare input and the speed at which it is input.

Have you seen a battery operated 300hp tractor?

The biggest problem is that the VAST majority of people don't understand the basics of thermodynamics. Everything is connected, there is no loss or gain of energy, it just changes state.
When people think of renewables, they are really thinking of perpetual motion machines.

In order to get close to what you may think of as a sustainable agricultural system based on renewable energy, 5 billion people must die within the next 5 years or so.


Consider this, if you did a calculation of the total amount of fossil energy used, then did a calculation of the amount of energy a single person represents, you would find a direct relationship between the global population and fossil fuel used.
A person, in the simplest of ways, represents a bundle of fossil fuel energy converted to a particular state. As an example, let's says an adult exists due to the conversion of 10 barrels of oil.
The earth is a single, conherent system of energy transfer. The fossil energy was in the ground because the system didn't need it.
That it has been artificially injected into current time, doesn't negate the fact that it is still energy from the ancient past. The majority of the current human population shouldn't be here, we (and I'm including myself) are manifestations of fossil energy that the earth stored as superfluous to its needs.

[steam_cannon]

The problem isn't just the rising cost of fertilizers. It is also lost top soil. Ukraine might have 18 feet of rich black soil in some places. Many US farms are down to 5 inches. And I'm just not sure what Americans will be able to grow mixing fertilizer with clay, mass scale hydroponics?

I think it's great though that Norway has been more forward thinking in how to keep it's agriculture running.

Also from a Global Warming perspective, your growing season may become extended as the poles of the planet heat up Lovelock style. Of course if/when global warming does accelerate to that point, expect there to be a lot of immigrants wanting in. And most of the US would become uninhabitable, so the soil left in the US grain belt may become a moot point...

James Lovelock: We'll be lucky if 20% survive
http://peakoil.com/fortopic28941.html

James Lovelock says Global Warming is now at point of no return. Other top climate scientists are more hopeful but say we only have less than 10 years before it's irreversible and time is running out. Bush Administrations been accused of asking top climate scientists at NASA to STOP speaking out about the climate crisis and of altering scientific journals reporting on the phenomenon.
http://www.greensurfers.org/globalwarmi ... return.htm

"11-degree global warming? Try 15 degrees"
http://tinyurl.com/2ng3oo

Temperature map: You're in a good location for global warming...
http://tinyurl.com/3xabzz

[bshirt]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', '
')Have you seen a battery operated 300hp tractor?

[bshirt]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('steam_cannon', 'T')he problem isn't just the rising cost of fertilizers. It is also lost top soil. Ukraine might have 18 feet of rich black soil in some places. Many US farms are down to 5 inches. And I'm just not sure what Americans will be able to grow mixing fertilizer with clay, mass scale hydroponics?

[canis_lupus]

I guess I'd question the scale of the industrial farming. I'm in the US -- could the US feed itself? I think probably, but not well. I see a massive push to have farmers grow their own fuel with biodiesel made with ethanol instead of methanol -- something that's not pleasant to do -- and leave the natural gas and pesticides for the fields. While they can.

I think there'd be a massive push to garden, so those that could grow at least some of their own food, would.

I don't think we'll be able to feed the world with the massive exports that we have now. I just don't know how we'd do it.

All of this presupposes a gentle powerdown with no Mad Max scenario. It also presupposes an effort that starts before we see the effects of PO, and the recognition of John and Mary Sixpack of the problem before they see the cupboard's bare, food prices at the White Hen are outrageous and the cost for the gas in the SUV is more than they can afford.

What irritates me the most is I think in some way we're headed back to depression-era farming methods -- smaller farms, rougher tools. I don't think we as a concerned (scared?) people are learning enough of the old ways from our elders who were there before they pass on. We've become so acustomed to stocked grocery stores on our way home from work and water when we turn on the tap and turning up the thermostat when we're chilly that the spectres facing John and Mary Sixpack will cause them to take any disruption / change in lifestyle personally.

[steam_cannon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bshirt', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', '
')Have you seen a battery operated 300hp tractor?

[steam_cannon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('canis_lupus', '
')"I don't think we'll be able to feed the world with the massive exports that we have now. I just don't know how we'd do it. "

[MrMambo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bshirt', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', '
')Have you seen a battery operated 300hp tractor?

[MrMambo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', 'D')oes Norway not import some of its food? Are you completely self-sustaining? By which I mean basic foodstuffs, not just luxury items.

[MrMambo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('steam_cannon', '
')http://www.renewables.com/Permaculture/SustAgri.htm

I can see us using solar tractors before going back to horses, at least for large farms...

[MaterialExcess]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('steam_cannon', '[')b]Question: Does the US feed itself?

"US Becomes a Net Importer of Food: One of the hidden surprises in the ballooning, out-of-control US budget and trade deficit data is that, for the first time in half a century, the US now imports more food than it exports."
http://blogs.salon.com/0002007/2004/12/18.html

[MrBill]

Excellent, thought provoking posts and some good insights. Thanks.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MaterialExcess', 'I') would be interested to see where the US stands in calories imported vs. calories exported.

[Mircea]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrMambo', 'I') don't know if all the mineral inputs to the fertilizers can be sustained. But certainly Kalium (potassium) neccerary for the KNO3 fertilizer is richlyt available in seawater, and seawater based deposits.

So my question is: Has anybody looked into the possibility of converting industrial agriculture from oil as energy input to renewable electricity, and if so can it be done?

My hunch is that it should be possible. But I guess it would all fall down if the material inputs (such as minerals) can not be sustained.

[Denny]

Even in the hard times of World War II, farmers were given open access to petroleum products. And, even trucks were allocated to farmers, but not to any other non-war industry business.

As things are going right now, farming is actually one area in which America still trumps the world, so it has to go with its strength. There will always be enough domestic based petroleum to support agriculture, even if all other users have to be curtailed.

Farmers are important, more important than most anything else in the economy, which just produces discretionay stuff.

[RdSnt]

You know, I am going to disagree with you. At the time of WWII there continued to be more rural people than city people. As well, even the city people had a much closer connection with farming.
Remember, the supermarket and the mall had not been invented then.

I would suggest that the average US citizen now is so disconnected from the reality of agriculture that prioritizing fuel to farmers simply won't make sense to them.
There are now many more city people than farmers and those in the cities will insist on getting their fuel first.

[Denny]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', 'T')here are now many more city people than farmers and those in the cities will insist on getting their fuel first.

[steam_cannon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MaterialExcess', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('steam_cannon', '[')b]Question: Does the US feed itself?

"US Becomes a Net Importer of Food: One of the hidden surprises in the ballooning, out-of-control US budget and trade deficit data is that, for the first time in half a century, the US now imports more food than it exports."
http://blogs.salon.com/0002007/2004/12/18.html

[Mircea]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Denny', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', 'T')here are now many more city people than farmers and those in the cities will insist on getting their fuel first.