by ren3z7frs » Sun 29 Apr 2007, 23:55:51
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', '
')I mean, what would be the effect if PO was in the public consciousness? It wouldn't matter if some groups refute it, because in this scenario the majority of people are aware of hydrocarbon depletion issues and are concerned enough to make noise about it.
This would mean that efforts for change would be made. Many people would conserve, maybe changing their SUV's for small cars, or even just small things like using more efficient light bulbs etc. (apparently if every US household changed just one regular light bulb to a fluorescent one, it would be the equivalent of taking 1 million cars off the road!).
I've seen several criticisms of economists on the forums, but I think in this respect they have things right. No way will having PO be in the mainstream have a permanent affect on people. People respond to incentives. When gas was high in the 70s, there was an incentive to look for solar and other solutions. Even now if you go to a research library to find solar references, a huge number date from that period.
Gas is getting more expensive right now. We can thank politics, natural resource limits, weather problems, etc. But if shale turns out to be as good as it might be... Or if new oil is discovered somewhere...
Now we all know that when all is said and done that oil is a limited resource. But technologies and discoveries could very conceivably push prices back down for another 2 or 3 decades. It's been just 3 decades since the 70s when people were likewise projecting TEOTWAWKI and for 30 years they were wrong. Gas fell to its cheapest inflation-adjusted price ever. And people respond to incentives, and they bought big cars and lived it up.
If oil falls in price, PO will leave the mainstream again. The economists know this, and on that mark they are dead on. If oil stays expensive then we all respond to the incentive. Is it is enough, fast enough? No one knows. Perhaps not, and we face some tough times ahead.
Which is the future, I know not. I do know it is fun to be scared. It is dramatic. It makes us feel better than our peers. We all like to feel better and smarter than our peers.