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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

No use trying to spread the word now

Discussions related to the physiological and psychological effects of peak oil on our members and future generations.

Re: No use trying to spread the word now

Unread postby Pops » Wed 25 Apr 2007, 11:52:58

Thanks Roy, you may be a cynic but you are a kind one. :>)

I too have been inspired and tutored by many here, not only those who are taking similar paths to ours but also the many others who are taking different actions.

The world is not a homogenous place and people aren't the same either – appropriate technology to urban gardens to suburban villages to small towns to intentional communities to pre-emptive primitivism all will play a role in the transition to come.

I agree with Roy's point that out walking the walk will prove to be much more important than merely talking the talk.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: No use trying to spread the word now

Unread postby Iaato » Wed 25 Apr 2007, 15:34:13

I want to go back to something UFC said that presents the paradox of major change.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('UFCjunkie', 'O')il is power! To make a difference we have to change the way we are living and that means cuting down our use of oil. That will lead to disarming and become more vulnerable. This will only make other contrys take advantage of the situation and take control of the remaining oil and with that have more power.

I believe that this has to go all the way, no one will let go until its over, at least thats what I think. So the only thing we can do to make things better is getting in our cars and drive, drive, drive and drive. Or do you have an plane, fly! Anything to get rid of the oil as fast as possible. I believe as long there is oil this will continue, the people who runs the world have been PO aware for decades and the aint going to change there minds now.


I'm not sure I'm ready to just get in my Abbey cadillac and drive off into the sunset at the end of the earth (where's seldom?) just yet. Nor am I ready to head to the bush with my dog sled and my cabin. But UFC is absolutely right, that giving up the old ways too soon will not help us transition to new ones.

The paradox of maximum power is that surviving designs of nature and man maximize energy (emergy) on every scale. So tossing education, wisdom, connections, and skills to go be a hermit in a cabin does not help the transition at all. The paradox is the need to straddle both cultures, and to be a universal citizen for a while. Or maybe longer than a while. My brain is not particularly fond of paradoxes, so I try to think of it as slow movement out of one culture and into another, with a lot of dancing back and forth in the short term. The universal citizen is a concept used in the culture of AK natives up here. The most successful model for AK natives appears to be one where the individual moves fluidly back and forth between native culture in the bush and the dominant culture found in Anchorage and beyond. Not everyone can do that, though.
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Re: No use trying to spread the word now

Unread postby eXpat » Thu 26 Apr 2007, 14:50:53

I think this article sums up the current shepple consensus about changing habits, link here
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') local Board of Architectural Review refused to issue the Saracheks a permit for the solar apparatus, having received a letter from at least 15 neighbors -- among them doctors, lawyers and other presumably well-educated people -- arguing that the panels "would clearly be an eyesore in our lovely Quaker Ridge neighborhood."
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Re: No use trying to spread the word now

Unread postby Benzin » Thu 26 Apr 2007, 21:22:01

Someone once told me "Don't argue with a brick wall. In the end they're still a brick wall."

Might as well have some fun and burn some oil 'cause there's nothing stopping this train until its grinds to a halt.
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Re: No use trying to spread the word now

Unread postby joewp » Fri 27 Apr 2007, 02:00:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('keehah', '
')I've thought of that two and attempted an explaination from congnivtive dissonance. (linked articles and my attempts: http://goldismoney.info/forums/showthread.php?t=120343)


What a coincidence. I just posted over there attempting to convince largesarge that his hope in oil sands and tar sands is ill-founded. I don't expect much results at all, but I have this compulsion to try at least once. :)

I've told enough people about the predicament we're in, and 99.99% of them don't buy it. I tried with some a few times, but if they're not going to care about their own future, I'm not either. This summer I hope to drag my little family kicking and screaming to a place surrounded by farms with a dozen or so acres. After I do that, I'm not bothering telling people any more. They don't want to listen and I'm sick of explaining things logically with evidence and being ignored. If they can't adapt and change, then Darwin says they must go anyway. That's natural selection at it's finest.

Let them go. We'll have to put a generic entry at darwinawards.com for all the people that were told and did nothing. :cry:
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Re: No use trying to spread the word now

Unread postby Revi » Fri 27 Apr 2007, 08:31:55

I have been in the depths of despair about people and the fact that nobody wants to hear anything I have to say about peak oil or anything else for that matter. They prefer to ridicule me and my puny efforts. I feel it's better to do something than sit around and wait for the end of the world. They laughed at Noah. The flood is coming. I can hear the roar now.
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Re: No use trying to spread the word now

Unread postby JPL » Fri 27 Apr 2007, 20:18:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') have been in the depths of despair about people and the fact that nobody wants to hear anything I have to say about peak oil or anything else for that matter. They prefer to ridicule me and my puny efforts. I feel it's better to do something than sit around and wait for the end of the world. They laughed at Noah. The flood is coming. I can hear the roar now.


Hi Revi

To confess: I spent a couple of late-night hours on this forum at the beginning of this week, and then got so depressed I went down to the kitchen and drained half a bottle of brandy. My wife found this heap on the floor the next morning and then (after several coaxings and coffees) got a long spiel about 'how no-one is listening to us'. (my wife is very tolerent). Then she started smoking again (oops) and we finally ended the day planting out tomatoes and trying to figure out how much wood we needed for next winter.

Sigh, I don't know what the answer is either, this issue of 'talking into a vaccum' is really getting me down as well. But I DO believe things (in some way) will change soon. Just got to hang in there, I guess...

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Re: No use trying to spread the word now

Unread postby Toploader » Sun 29 Apr 2007, 09:00:17

It's never useless informing your family, friends and loved ones about what is going to happen, even if they do think you are alittle crazy for it.

What I tend to do is give each person a full explanation, just the once when I think they are in a receptive frame of mind. That way, I figure once TSHTF or at least begins to, they will at least know what's starting to happen and may come to me for help.

Just don't go telling everyone at work or at the bar/pub about your plans and fears, because they also may show up at your door step sometime ;)
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Re: No use trying to spread the word now

Unread postby Revi » Sun 29 Apr 2007, 18:19:35

Merci, JPL. I talk to my wife and she feels that we just have to keep on keeping on. Maybe the way we live will influence others. We are getting next year's wood together and getting ready for what's coming. I think we'll make it through with the help of our friends. Hope springs eternal. It's nice to see spring happening!
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Re: No use trying to spread the word now

Unread postby eastbay » Sun 29 Apr 2007, 21:22:13

Peak Oil - That brings guffaws and chortles from family members - notwithstanding the fact that they have about 10 minutes of reading and research on the issue under their belts.


Revi, we never learn, do we.

Just when I think I'm done wasting my time trying to awaken people to peak oil, I go and open my big fat mouth one more time. It happened just this afternoon. Someone at my local temple mentioned that another temple has a very small parking lot requiring people to park far away for special events and this may be due to their poor planning.

Well, I suggested that due to reduced oil and gasoline availability we may soon experience increasing prices thereby reducing driving, therefore maybe it wasn't such poor planning after all. One person said, 'what do you mean?' I said, well, as we know, everything is impermanent and that includes oil and therefore gasoline. Oil's getting scarcer, you know, it's running out. Soon it'll be too costly for casual personal trips (or words to that effect). As he started nodding his head and grinning around to the others, I knew I had screwed up again by blurting out a mention of oil depletion.

I should have kept my mouth shut. Not a single person in the group have a clue. Plus, this was a group of really nice and kind people, friends of mine who may now, because of that one series of comments about peak oil, be questioning my ability to organize rational thoughts.

Darn it. :cry:
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Re: No use trying to spread the word now

Unread postby frankthetank » Sun 29 Apr 2007, 23:14:57

Today i sat with a bunch of family members and listened to their annoyances with current gas prices. I think one of my brothers almost is there, although he is still delusional about the future. The rest of them are downright clueless. I speak not a whisper. I'd much rather listen and see if i can see any rays of hope. What it comes down to is a bunch of complaining with no hope of any of us changing the situation...its just too bad they couldn't prepare themselves a little better for the coming "change".
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Re: No use trying to spread the word now

Unread postby ren3z7frs » Sun 29 Apr 2007, 23:55:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', '
')I mean, what would be the effect if PO was in the public consciousness? It wouldn't matter if some groups refute it, because in this scenario the majority of people are aware of hydrocarbon depletion issues and are concerned enough to make noise about it.

This would mean that efforts for change would be made. Many people would conserve, maybe changing their SUV's for small cars, or even just small things like using more efficient light bulbs etc. (apparently if every US household changed just one regular light bulb to a fluorescent one, it would be the equivalent of taking 1 million cars off the road!).


I've seen several criticisms of economists on the forums, but I think in this respect they have things right. No way will having PO be in the mainstream have a permanent affect on people. People respond to incentives. When gas was high in the 70s, there was an incentive to look for solar and other solutions. Even now if you go to a research library to find solar references, a huge number date from that period.

Gas is getting more expensive right now. We can thank politics, natural resource limits, weather problems, etc. But if shale turns out to be as good as it might be... Or if new oil is discovered somewhere...

Now we all know that when all is said and done that oil is a limited resource. But technologies and discoveries could very conceivably push prices back down for another 2 or 3 decades. It's been just 3 decades since the 70s when people were likewise projecting TEOTWAWKI and for 30 years they were wrong. Gas fell to its cheapest inflation-adjusted price ever. And people respond to incentives, and they bought big cars and lived it up.

If oil falls in price, PO will leave the mainstream again. The economists know this, and on that mark they are dead on. If oil stays expensive then we all respond to the incentive. Is it is enough, fast enough? No one knows. Perhaps not, and we face some tough times ahead.

Which is the future, I know not. I do know it is fun to be scared. It is dramatic. It makes us feel better than our peers. We all like to feel better and smarter than our peers.
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Re: No use trying to spread the word now

Unread postby Sheb » Mon 30 Apr 2007, 00:46:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Grifter', '[')I tried, now if I ever mention it I pretend to be an optimist. I find people much older than me are far more likely to think and have something insightful to add. People below the age of about 40 I find to be totally blind and unable to construct meaningful arguments.


Well Grifter, I guess I'll just to have to *practice* constructing meaningful arguments for another six years;) Funny that our Declaration of Independence was written by a man of 33. Imagine what he would have done if he were at least 40:)

Until then, you will humor me, won't you, Grifter?
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Re: No use trying to spread the word now

Unread postby ucosty » Mon 30 Apr 2007, 01:19:58

Maybe it's being saved at the 11th hour is so ingrained in our conciousness. Every conversation I have had about PeakOil has eneded along the lines of

"Well, I'm sure somebody will think of something..."

[smilie=5censored.gif]

And don't mention price gouging near me unless you want your eyes gouged out. (Just kidding, remember I'm more scared of you than you are of me ;))
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Re: No use trying to spread the word now

Unread postby Sheb » Mon 30 Apr 2007, 01:41:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ucosty', 'M')aybe it's being saved at the 11th hour is so ingrained in our conciousness. Every conversation I have had about PeakOil has eneded along the lines of

"Well, I'm sure somebody will think of something..."

[smilie=5censored.gif]

And don't mention price gouging near me unless you want your eyes gouged out. (Just kidding, remember I'm more scared of you than you are of me ;))


You're right, Ucosty. I wonder if it's programmed instinct, or a post-WWII properity thing. Well, someone somewhere will think of something. And it will make a difference to someone somewhere:)

Ten years ago, I was very active in the Mars society and involved in space flight, believing that we would, in this age, see such things come to fruition. While I still think such things are neat as hell, and see many possible futures where it can happen, I don't see it happening on a major scale in our age. Anyone here ever read "Colonizing the Galaxy in 8 Easy Steps"?
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Re: No use trying to spread the word now

Unread postby Grifter » Mon 30 Apr 2007, 04:28:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sheb', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Grifter', '[')I tried, now if I ever mention it I pretend to be an optimist. I find people much older than me are far more likely to think and have something insightful to add. People below the age of about 40 I find to be totally blind and unable to construct meaningful arguments.


Well Grifter, I guess I'll just to have to *practice* constructing meaningful arguments for another six years;) Funny that our Declaration of Independence was written by a man of 33. Imagine what he would have done if he were at least 40:)

Until then, you will humor me, won't you, Grifter?


Perhaps I should have said most people. :)
What is your experience of talking about these issues in the real world? Just interested.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sheb', 'I') wonder if it's programmed instinct, or a post-WWII properity thing. Well, someone somewhere will think of something. And it will make a difference to someone somewhere:)


You are most probably correct, if a whole generation have no experience of hardship, only continual and increasing prosperity then it is perhaps impossible to imagine anything else. For most people.

Maybe this is reflected in the most popular ‘news’papers of the day.
Daily Mirror 30 April 1947
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It is hard to be more interesting than Jesse jilting her lover by fax :(
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Re: No use trying to spread the word now

Unread postby Bas » Mon 30 Apr 2007, 11:32:07

Reading all your replies, I guess I should consider myself lucky having convinced/interested all of my close relatives and most of my close friends. None of them seem to have started contemplating how to react to PeakOil though, but as I make that preparation part more and more my own focus I expect they will follow there too.

Outside of that small circle though, I find mostly a lot of disinterest, or if interested the "11th hour technology fix" argument.

Either way, I guess I'm concluding that it is worth trying to talk about it as even if people aren't really interested, you still sow a seed that might grow rapidly when the oil prices shoot up; people might not be interested in oil even then, if it wasn't for that little seed.

so carry on people, as the world will soften up for our message when oil prices go up. [smilie=qgaraduate.gif]
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Re: No use trying to spread the word now

Unread postby Toploader » Mon 30 Apr 2007, 15:58:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', '
')
Either way, I guess I'm concluding that it is worth trying to talk about it as even if people aren't really interested, you still sow a seed that might grow rapidly when the oil prices shoot up; people might not be interested in oil even then, if it wasn't for that little seed.

so carry on people, as the world will soften up for our message when oil prices go up. [smilie=qgaraduate.gif]


Yeah, this is my view exactly. I think it's too late to try and convert the masses to make a change, but it's not to late to warn loved ones about the situation so when it becomes obvious (IE when people can't afford to drive and energy bills are almost unfordable) they will be more ready then those that are wasting time scapegoating when they really need to be preparing.
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Re: No use trying to spread the word now

Unread postby Sheb » Tue 01 May 2007, 04:07:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Grifter', '
')Perhaps I should have said most people. :)
What is your experience of talking about these issues in the real world? Just interested.


I find it harder than religious witnessing or selling cars. At least in those cases one is telling others something they might want to hear...or flattering them. Some friends and family the response is not dissimiliar to what I would expect if I had awoken them in the middle of the night to give them a gift-wrapped turd. As for mere "aquaintances" (coworkers, etc), it's basically something to the tune of "you don't really believe that..." or "We just need to build nuclea plants". I get that one alot. There are alot of guys in the navy who, because they went to nuclear power school, consider themselves nuclear engineers. However, they never actually worked for a company designing or constructing a reactor.

So, in a word...Denial.
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Re: No use trying to spread the word now

Unread postby Judgie » Wed 09 May 2007, 06:37:28

I've tried, and i've stopped trying to help the greater population. I thought of joining the Environmental Action Group at my uni, and i', still thinking of it. But the amount of progress they've made and the attention they get even with a decent amount of members is not encouraging. It seems more than a few members have joined merely to feel as though they're doing something, even without doing anything.

I remember going to parties as a 15 year old and getting depressed at what I saw. And see. Even more so when you'd talk to someone, and conversation would slowly slide towards these things. It was like beating my head against a brick wall trying to get them to understand what was coming. Maybe I just didn't use the right words. I do that alot. Within the next few months I intend to trade in my ute for a small motorbike with saddlebags and a pack on the back. Thats enough for everything that I take with me on a daily basis. The way I see it every little bit helps. I recently succeeded in convincing my parents that energy saving bulbs are the go. Now every bulb on our property is of the E.S. variety. Can't wait to see the next power bill :). Thats just the start. We grow our own hay for our horses and i'd like to see some of that land used for other things. It's only 5 acres but we can make use of that for food and other things. If the angry locals in the suburbs a kilometer away don't murder us for it when the time comes. And thats the problem. Defending ourselves if the crunch is as bad as many are predicting.

I'd do an engineering degree in a snap but I lack the mathematical inclination for heavy algebra and much of pure maths. I was OK at physics though, it was easy to relate it to the real world. And at Trigonometry and Geometry too. So I'm doing Environmental Management. On the side I'll be going for my Coxswains soon enough (Day rating only, since I am colour-blind, although rated as "safe" to obtain a day rating), and eventually my Yacht-Masters. I have my OH&S at sea cert., Senior First Aid, etc, and I make absolutely sure I maintain an active role as volunteer crew on the local tall ship "One and All". I figure some people will still want to travel locally for business/family reasons, etc post-peak. If I can find the time I also want to enrol in a basic boatbuilding course. I'm doing what I can for myself and my family and friends (those who will listen, not to say I won't try to help the others when the time comes. They are my friends), but as far as to help the world. Thats too much to ask.

Unless there was some way of raising a concerted effort (with the current worldwide mindset, not likely).
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