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Who among you thinks you have a good plan worked out?

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Who among you thinks you have a good plan worked out?

Unread postby roccman » Sat 05 May 2007, 22:37:06

"and holing up in a mountain bunker with guns, MREs and a few dried out seeds ain't it."

ummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...

and why not?
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Re: Who among you thinks you have a good plan worked out?

Unread postby Lore » Sat 05 May 2007, 23:49:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Chaparral', 'F')unny you should mention this. I just spent all last weekend scouting out real estate with about a dozen such people, a few of whom lurk or post here. Trust me, this group is smart. Some are wise. most are extremely capable in many more ways than one: the skill sets are all over the map and more than a few seem to be successful small business owners. We are all pretty much in agreement on where the world's going and how best to try and survive it, and holing up in a mountain bunker with guns, MREs and a few dried out seeds ain't it.


Been there and done that myself in the early 70s on a commune, since then I have bought and sold a few businesses as well.

I was personally raised on a small farm.

I really don't have an idea what skill sets you think may be valuable, day trading to blacksmithing, but putting together a group of opinionated people is tuff enough when you make out the pay checks let alone trying to start a community of equals.

My advice is to do the Pops thing. Find yourself a rural community that you can fit into and don't try to fit a community around you.
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Re: Who among you thinks you have a good plan worked out?

Unread postby mmasters » Sun 06 May 2007, 01:18:16

My plan, I would give it a 7/10

Stay out of debt, limit attachments (done and done)

Get a better job, make more money, be in a valued position (working on it)

be flexible/adaptable, keep learning/reacessing things (done and continually doing)

profit off the market crazyness - gold/silver/oil runups (part done and waiting)

keep a rotating surplus of essentials - food, water, gas, cash (haven't started yet)

keep extended family together (in progress)

Help manage immediete family preperations (part done)

network with local peak oilers (working on it)

party, travel, live it up (doing from time to time)

Find a good woman to settle down with for the future (actively searching)

Decide location as things progress (stay in NYC, move in with family, move near amish country, etc...)
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Re: Who among you thinks you have a good plan worked out?

Unread postby Ayoob » Sun 06 May 2007, 01:32:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zensui', 'I') don't really have a plan...

But I made 2 decisions: don't have debt and don't have offsprings.

I am buying "pre-PO tech memories", if technology get more expensive or scarce after PO. This started ironically with a zippo :lol:

...yes, I'm late for this planning.


If I may comment on your plan:

Suicide is a quicker way to achieve your objective. Nevertheless, I believe that yours is not a bad way to make it through the next decade or so, until you decide that life is not worth it for you.

I buy some pre-PO tech memories, too. I bought a ham radio a couple weeks ago and tested for my license today. I think ham radio will be around after the internet is dead.
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Re: Who among you thinks you have a good plan worked out?

Unread postby MattSavinar » Sun 06 May 2007, 02:13:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'P')lan...

Trust no one.

Buy everything imaginable with worthless dollars on credit...then BK.


. . . than land in the Blackwater camps.
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Re: Who among you thinks you have a good plan worked out?

Unread postby Chaparral » Sun 06 May 2007, 05:12:07

My plan is twofold: plan A addresses a hard landing caused by peakoil only: buy a going agricultural concern in a reasonably well-watered area close to several different modes of transportation. No debt of any sort is needed: I'll make an all-cash offer when I smell the blood in the water. My targeted property is a producing orchard within cycling distance of a medium sized town served by both interstates and rail and even a link to a deepwater shipping channel. It is outside the blast radii of any neargy nuclear targets up into the multi-megaton range. Nut tree orchards are preferred given the fact that the trees themselves have roots that go deep enough to tap into the water table without needing irrigation all summer long and the land doesn't need to be plowed or converted to organic prod'n so there's less of that need for massive fossil fuel inputs. Products such as almonds, walnuts, pistachios etc don't need refrigeration, keep a long time and have a high value relative to their weight and volume and the understory could be used to graze all sorts of protein and egg producing livestock. My identified parcel is out of sight from any major highways and is partially obscured from most main county roads. It is within 300 horizontal feet and 50 vertical feet of a significant perennial watercourse. So long as the world holds together I should still be able to achieve relative economic and food security while using those season tix to the opera, ballet and symphony orch.
The chief problem is defensibility from organized zombie hordes although I'll be having perhaps a dozen neighbors, the majority possibly of my own choosing at some time, that could work together for our mutual benefit. Perimeter security and some concealment is also very doable with my identified parcel(s).

Plan B applies to catastrophic climate change. CC could turn much of the continent into a desert that is just too hot to support reliable agriculture. If that happens, water will become far more of a problem than it already is and both drought and the number of zombie refugees could increase to the point where it's time to fall back into the mountains of Cascadia. That is where I'm working with other like-minded individuals on some sort of "intentional community". It's worth mentioning that it ain't no stupidly idealistic hippie-commune where we all get to share and fuck-up each other's extremely expensive machine tools. It is not neccessarily a cohousing arrangement either. Homes may be individually owned and occupied while the land, earthmoving equipment, stables, fuel depots, photovoltaic arrays etc is owned by the collective: one could think of it more as a gated community that has its own utilities and sustainable food and water security than an actual collective. It will not be insular however: the community will be engaged in showing others how to grow what they need for food, fiber and medicines, conflict resolution, defense etc. It is worth noting as pstarr did, that there are really very few ways in or out of many parts of Cascadia and i'm sure that both Mother Nature herself and more than a few of them crazy pot-growin' anarchists (Gaia love their lil' hearts) would see to it that there is NO survivable way in should the need arise.

It also goes without saying that preparations also include stockpiling the requisite inflation hedges, hardware, tools, protective devices etc as well as diversification of the old investment portfolio in such a fashion so as to maintain as much liquidity as possible until such things no longer matter (if the world ever gets to that point) and retrofitting of any residences or other facilities for an energy and water-impoverished world. Any processes such as transportation, animal husbandry, vegetable gardening, harvesting, shipping and packing would also be redesigned to work on little or no fossil fuel input and a little water as possible. The family that matters is already on board and will go where i take them. The family that doesn't get on board cannot be allowed to matter: it'll be all we can do to take care of the willing.

I give my combined plans a 9.5 out of 10 if the global temps don't increase by much more than 2.5-3.5 deg C. If they go to 6 deg, then i'd provisionally give plan B a 7 out of 10 while A = maybe a 2.
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Re: Who among you thinks you have a good plan worked out?

Unread postby Chaparral » Sun 06 May 2007, 05:30:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '"')and holing up in a mountain bunker with guns, MREs and a few dried out seeds ain't it."

ummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...

and why not?


I'll answer your question with a few hypotheticals of my own:

How long you plannin' to hole up?
Have you ever grown your own food? Too bad the cabbage worms ate all your cabbages and the grasshoppers chewed up the broccoli.

Can you stay awake 24 hours a day for an indefinite time period? Is that the muzzle of a rifle sticking out of the shadows? Is someone watching you from that line of trees? What was that noise behind the outhouse? Why did your dogs all die last night?

How's that twisted ankle healing? Is it easy to chop wood and carry water with your twisted ankle? I'll bet you really have to walk a long way to get water since the drought began four years ago and the stream by your cabin dried up.

Kinda sucks that the landslide blocked your only way out doesn't it?

Really sucks that a 40 foot wall of flame is approaching your cabin from that lightning-caused forest fire don't it?
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Re: Who among you thinks you have a good plan worked out?

Unread postby spear » Sun 06 May 2007, 06:52:16

I lived in the city,moved to the country 50 kms out to a rural village in the Greek countryside which dosent look like much to passersby,built a house here,sold one of the two which I had in the city to have some liquid on hand for emergencies.
I wont go into detail about the rural house built from scratch solo as I have already mentioned that on other threads.I plan to keep the city house vacant at some future point to I can have access to the city , depending on my needs when the time arives. I also have a fishing shack by the sea on the backside of a mountain off the beaten path for an overnight fishing trip to procure seafood.
The rural house will be totally self sustainable within the next five years.

Im a tradesman,and my wife is a teacher,so unless the school system goes bust over here she is guaranteed for a paycheck.
I always find a way.
Other than that,when the firewood runs out in the hills around here,(I will be an old man by then),I plan on a little bootlegging a little goatherding,cheese making,pellet and briquet pressing,solarizing,trading,and generalizing.
Probably loading up a bagfull of stuff and going down to the city and sell my wares kind of situation.

Not much, but who is going to have much but a select few anyway.

The only way this plan changes is if the govt confiscates my rural house for some reason like its the perfect setup or something.
Then that will suck as it forces me into a position that there will be no going back from as someone has crossed my line.

As far as getting my son prepared Im doing pretty much the same as Seahorse ,with the addition of skill learning on the ranch here.

But in the final analysis ,this is the Balkans here,so one never knows how things will evolve.

At least Im not bored.
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Re: Who among you thinks you have a good plan worked out?

Unread postby Fredrik » Sun 06 May 2007, 06:52:53

My plan is not definitive yet, but I will try to:

- take no debt
- get some money saved
- raise my children responsibly, and gradually teach them to accept to live on much less
- keep having lots of friends in vicinity
- acquire practical skills and stuff probably needed in post-PO times
- work out on some plan to have a future employment in some critical trade
- generally act wisely while trusting in God

I'm not planning to go rural, at least yet, because it's too big a change of life for us at this point and people living away from population centers may initially get hit harder by the depression (unless they immediately get subsidies for producing food from the government).
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Re: Who among you thinks you have a good plan worked out?

Unread postby basil_hayden » Sun 06 May 2007, 09:50:55

I'm putting together the things and attitude I need to outlast 75% of the local (within 3 days ride on horseback, maybe 100 miles?) populace. Two tough winters ought to thin the herd.

I figure things will be fine after 18 months of fansplatter.

If nothing precipitates, and things go on as they are, most of the stuff will be perfect to sustain me in old age (maybe not true retirement, but at least not working for the man).

I just need to find a way to pay 10 more years of mortgage in 3, then get off the grid. So basically I'm screwed, but not for trying, just poor timing.
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Re: Who among you thinks you have a good plan worked out?

Unread postby eastbay » Sun 06 May 2007, 10:51:39

I'm putting together the things and attitude I need to outlast 75% of the local (within 3 days ride on horseback, maybe 100 miles?) populace. Two tough winters ought to thin the herd.

basil_hayden, I think you added another step to mine. Set up a personal/ family scenario whereby one can outlast 75% of the local populace. Excellent. That's what it will eventually come down to.
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Re: Who among you thinks you have a good plan worked out?

Unread postby roccman » Sun 06 May 2007, 10:56:15

"I'll answer your question with a few hypotheticals of my own:

How long you plannin' to hole up?
Have you ever grown your own food? Too bad the cabbage worms ate all your cabbages and the grasshoppers chewed up the broccoli.

Can you stay awake 24 hours a day for an indefinite time period? Is that the muzzle of a rifle sticking out of the shadows? Is someone watching you from that line of trees? What was that noise behind the outhouse? Why did your dogs all die last night?

How's that twisted ankle healing? Is it easy to chop wood and carry water with your twisted ankle? I'll bet you really have to walk a long way to get water since the drought began four years ago and the stream by your cabin dried up.

Kinda sucks that the landslide blocked your only way out doesn't it?

Really sucks that a 40 foot wall of flame is approaching your cabin from that lightning-caused forest fire don't it?"

Ummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...

ok
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Re: Who among you thinks you have a good plan worked out?

Unread postby Lore » Sun 06 May 2007, 13:23:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Chaparral', 'T')hat is where I'm working with other like-minded individuals on some sort of "intentional community". It's worth mentioning that it ain't no stupidly idealistic hippie-commune where we all get to share and fuck-up each other's extremely expensive machine tools. It is not neccessarily a cohousing arrangement either. Homes may be individually owned and occupied while the land, earthmoving equipment, stables, fuel depots, photovoltaic arrays etc is owned by the collective: one could think of it more as a gated community that has its own utilities and sustainable food and water security than an actual collective. It will not be insular however: the community will be engaged in showing others how to grow what they need for food, fiber and medicines, conflict resolution, defense etc. It is worth noting as pstarr did, that there are really very few ways in or out of many parts of Cascadia and i'm sure that both Mother Nature herself and more than a few of them crazy pot-growin' anarchists (Gaia love their lil' hearts) would see to it that there is NO survivable way in should the need arise.


Nice dream sounds expensive, tentative and a bit idealistic. Most of the problem with communities like this is the "enemy" within that you bring with you, not the so called crazies without.

Also, "intentional communities" no matter how loose (in fact loose can work against you), have a hard time working or lasting unless there is a strong driving common cause. The only one you can claim is that of "survival" and that won't sink in until people experience "flight or fight". If you start too early, people will soon become disgruntled as they see the rest of the world rolling on by. Start too late and your not prepared.

Then there are the inevitable disputes. Joe keeps breaking down the tractor because he's reckless. Frank's wife said he has to find a real job and is leaving. Bill's kids hate this life! Wilber is a lazy ass. All this is before things get tuff and you've still got your own personal problems.

I give such a plan possibly 2 out of 10. I don't mean to be a wet blanket, but based on my experience, and like I said, your better going it alone in a nice small rural setting or village where you can fit in. For one thing these people may already have the skills and attitude you’re looking for along with a good solid historical basis for community. Everyone knows each other and your perimeter of safety can extend for many miles around you.

At the least I wouldn't be waiting till all hell breaks loose before you all get an education on how to get with the program.
Last edited by Lore on Sun 06 May 2007, 14:18:39, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Who among you thinks you have a good plan worked out?

Unread postby Chaparral » Sun 06 May 2007, 15:15:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', 'N')ice dream sounds expensive, tentative and a bit idealistic. Most of the problem with communities like this is the "enemy" within that you bring with you, not the so called crazies without.


that has been my observation of every collective enterprise, from simple business partnerships to working with other scientists and grad students to families. The chief novelty I'd face is not being the dictator in charge of me, myself and I :-) Most everyother time, I'd had the authority to get the job done or enough capability that the authority would get out of the way, shut up, and let me get the job done. Lets just say that members are being chosen very carefully and the size of their check or their skill sets aren't the only criteria. It helps me that I'm easy-going and let most things slide as long as it wont ruin my lathes or drill bits or six weeks of work in the vegetable garden.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', 'A')lso, "intentional communities" no matter how loose (in fact loose can work against you), have a hard time working or lasting unless there is a strong driving common cause. The only one you can claim is that of "survival" and that won't sink in until people experience "flight or fight". If you start too early, people will soon become disgruntled as they see the rest of the world rolling on by. Start too late and your not prepared.


Some members already want to relocate ON the community property ASAP and stay there, regardless of when TSHTF. Others like myself want to contribute financially while remaining at their current jobs in the city/country. The issue at hand is that those staying in the city also need to learn post-carbon skills of permaculture, carpentry...whatever sort of things that have been discussed on the planning for the future forums. Interestingly enough, the common thread seems to be "none of us knows exactly what, how or when" TS is going to HTF so even if we don't relocate now, we had all damned well better start learning the skills in situ or heading up to TEOTWAKI estates to learn on "vacations" of sorts.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', ' ')Then there are the inevitable disputes. Joe keeps breaking down the tractor because he's reckless. Frank's wife said he has to find a real job and is leaving. Bill's kids hate this life! Wilber is a lazy ass. All this is before things get tuff and you've still got your own personal problems.


The fact that some members will be able to stay at their current jobs and locations should mitigate this for the time being. As far as idiots abusing communal equipment, there will be ways of dealing with that. The keys won't be hanging by the shed for just any old slacker to grab for a joyride.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', ' ')your better going it alone in a nice small rural setting or village where you can fit in. For one thing these people may already have the skills and attitude you’re looking for along with a good solid historical basis for community. Everyone knows each other and your perimeter of safety can extend for many miles around you.


That (which is essentially my plan A) in and of itself seems a bit idealistic to me. Buying an ag operation and hoping that the gov't doesn't decide to step in and redistribute the land or roving bands of poor don't pick away at the business infrastructure gradually...shooting the dogs one day, stealing cordwood the next, kidnapping the wife for ransom ala S. America the day after that... every path has its unknowns.

As far as preexisting community and skill sets go, most everyone I see outside the Redwood Curtain as pstarr calls it, is riding a multi-hundred thousand dollar combine and has to wait for a company technician to drive out and service the thing in the middle of a field before continuing on..the new ruralistas or managers of agbiz concerns have none of the skills that my uncle had when he built his enterprise after WWII. I think for the world we are heading to, the ability to choose one's neighbors will be the paramount thing. I see a lot of these agricultural regions where I'd fit in as being full of boarded up businesses, meth addicts and undocumented immigrants living in squalor while the owners of the ranches live in poorly built mansions on the other side of the valley and drive 8 mpg trucks across big expanses of blacktop: the social capital isn't there and what was there went away as the small farms died off over the last 60 years.

I've noticed a few family organic operations that seem like good candidates for neighbors however and the option of buying additional parcels, building the soil and then selling them to potential long-term neighbors has also crossed my mind. I ain't ruling that out as a partial addendum to plan A. It is capital intensive however and between running three or four businesses and everything else, I ain't got the combined energy and liquidity to pursue that for the time being: maybe in eight or so years after a really nasty real estate crash that drags down the value of farmland as well :twisted:

Right now, the idea of IC offers that ability to choose my neighbors based on how clued in they are and how likely they are to cooperate for the cheapest price.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', ' ')
At the least I wouldn't be waiting till all hell breaks loose before you all get an education on how to get with the program.

guaranteed, we ain't. Some of us have already been at it for a while.

That's all I'm saying on ICs here. Any further debate should probably be moved to the "planing for the future" forum.
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Re: Who among you thinks you have a good plan worked out?

Unread postby Baldwin » Sun 06 May 2007, 22:54:46

Let's see. I am 17 and looking off the edge of a cliff living in what someone else coined as the "World's largest strip mall". That would be nassau county, on long island. It is a suburb of New York City.

Since farming on soil that is covered by concrete is not feasible, I am left with a small amount of soil whose nutrients have been wasted on the lawn. Oh Joy.

Since farming is out of the question, that leaves me with two other time tested professions:prostitution and the Catholic priesthood. Ironic isn't it?

I do have some gold and silver coins. I have 12 eagles, a sovereign, a 20 franc napoleon, and a hodgepodge of WWII era silver.

I do wish to study to become a Catholic priest, for various reasons (faith is one of them). The benefit is that my tuition is 75% paid for (in addition to any scholarships I will receive), room and board are free. That leaves me with 60k of my grandfather's gift of stock untouched. Did I mention that diocesan priests do not have a vow of poverty? I am going to spend atleast 5/6 on bulk 90% silver and smaller sized, low premium gold like 20 franc pieces and the odd sovereign if I can get a good price.

I was even toying with the idea of being a military chaplain.
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Re: Who among you thinks you have a good plan worked out?

Unread postby Jenab » Mon 07 May 2007, 11:18:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'I') think Aaron has a valid point.

The water rich North West cost will be over run with people when PO hits full steam. When the LA basin starts to return to a desert the people that live there are not going to head south. They will head north.

By moving North you may end up heavily investing in an area and setting up a nice sustainable place, only to find that you are still trampled by the herd.

I think the best thing to do is to wait and see how things shake out. See which way the wind is blowing then react. By waiting you might save yourself from making a mistake.

That probably won't work, either. If you don't act in time, you lose the window of opportunity to do most of the necessary preparation. It is true, on the other hand, that you'll have to make educated guesses about which way to jump, and that disaster awaits those who guess wrong. So act early, but guess right.

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Re: Who among you thinks you have a good plan worked out?

Unread postby eastbay » Mon 07 May 2007, 11:38:31

I was even toying with the idea of being a military chaplain.

Baldwin, that may not be a bad plan. Remember, in times of war and severe strife, soldiers are always fed even if the general population starves (Prisoners, however, are last in the food line, in case anyone's thinking of a life of crime... ) History shows this is almost a universal. Those of you who are 'young' may give this some thought if things start to crumble sooner than later.
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Re: Who among you thinks you have a good plan worked out?

Unread postby Baldwin » Mon 07 May 2007, 22:02:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', '[')i]I was even toying with the idea of being a military chaplain.

Baldwin, that may not be a bad plan. Remember, in times of war and severe strife, soldiers are always fed even if the general population starves (Prisoners, however, are last in the food line, in case anyone's thinking of a life of crime... ) History shows this is almost a universal. Those of you who are 'young' may give this some thought if things start to crumble sooner than later.


I never thought of it that way. If Savinar is right and the military channel is right and we are in for a modern day "100 years war", then atleast I'll have work.
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Re: Who among you thinks you have a good plan worked out?

Unread postby MattSavinar » Mon 07 May 2007, 22:11:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Chaparral', 'T')hat is where I'm working with other like-minded individuals on some sort of "intentional community". It's worth mentioning that it ain't no stupidly idealistic hippie-commune where we all get to share and fuck-up each other's extremely expensive machine tools. It is not neccessarily a cohousing arrangement either. Homes may be individually owned and occupied while the land, earthmoving equipment, stables, fuel depots, photovoltaic arrays etc is owned by the collective: one could think of it more as a gated community that has its own utilities and sustainable food and water security than an actual collective. It will not be insular however: the community will be engaged in showing others how to grow what they need for food, fiber and medicines, conflict resolution, defense etc. It is worth noting as pstarr did, that there are really very few ways in or out of many parts of Cascadia and i'm sure that both Mother Nature herself and more than a few of them crazy pot-growin' anarchists (Gaia love their lil' hearts) would see to it that there is NO survivable way in should the need arise.


Nice dream sounds expensive, tentative and a bit idealistic. Most of the problem with communities like this is the "enemy" within that you bring with you, not the so called crazies without.

Also, "intentional communities" no matter how loose (in fact loose can work against you), have a hard time working or lasting unless there is a strong driving common cause. The only one you can claim is that of "survival" and that won't sink in until people experience "flight or fight". If you start too early, people will soon become disgruntled as they see the rest of the world rolling on by. Start too late and your not prepared.

Then there are the inevitable disputes. Joe keeps breaking down the tractor because he's reckless. Frank's wife said he has to find a real job and is leaving. Bill's kids hate this life! Wilber is a lazy ass. All this is before things get tuff and you've still got your own personal problems.

I give such a plan possibly 2 out of 10. I don't mean to be a wet blanket, but based on my experience, and like I said, your better going it alone in a nice small rural setting or village where you can fit in. For one thing these people may already have the skills and attitude you’re looking for along with a good solid historical basis for community. Everyone knows each other and your perimeter of safety can extend for many miles around you.

At the least I wouldn't be waiting till all hell breaks loose before you all get an education on how to get with the program.


Very well said.
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MattSavinar
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