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Who among you thinks you have a good plan worked out?

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Who among you thinks you have a good plan worked out?

Postby Ayoob » Sat 05 May 2007, 03:18:58

I think mine is pretty good, it's the best I could come up with given my circumstances. Given my options, I give my own personal post-peak plan a 10/10.

In this thread, give us a quick three-paragraph summary of your plan and your personal rating for your plan. 10/10 being the best of all possible worlds, and zero/10 being counting on dividends from McDonald's.

I'll start it off with my own.

First, I am relocating. Leaving Los Angeles for the rainy side of Washington/Oregon/British Columbia. Way too many people and not enough resources locally in SoCal. Very little of the LA Basin is going to be recognizable as Western Civilization in ten years.

Second, I am retooling. From stockbroker to nurse, specializing in two areas simultaneously, critical care transports and psychiatric. Apparently, I am gifted as a psychiatric nurse, according to my clinical instructor and the staff on the psych ward. I'm not so hot in the med/surg ward but the schizophrenics and the major depression patients respond to me in a way that is very off the charts. I am a fish, swimming in water.

Third, I am refocusing. While I am a consumer, I am changing from mindless open-mouth-robot to conscious consumer, and sometimes producer. With any luck, in ten years, I will be eating 100% homegrown vegetables and home-harvested meat. Also, I will be producing all the fuel I need to heat my home from my land. I think it is probably going to take me ten years, but at the end of ten years I think I'm pretty much good to go.

Between those three things, I am as ready as I can be for the cost of commodity goods to ski-jump up to infinity and still be OK. Please don't comment on my plans so much as detailing your own. If you want to comment on my plans that's fine, but I'd rather hear your own plans and what you are doing.

One other thought. There are many planning threads. I read many of them. If you would be so kind as to simply summarize your plan and then rate it yourself, I think that would be an interesting thought exercise. Maybe this will lead somewhere interesting.
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Re: Who among you thinks you have a good plan worked out?

Postby jato » Sat 05 May 2007, 05:59:24

I will stay in SoCal and ride the decline. I don't see much chance for leaving until things get bad enough to make my wife into a (true) believer.

I really don't have a working plan, since they have all been shot down. I gave up on planning, but not on life. I am going to enjoy the good times while they last. I have some stockpiles to help with any temporary supply disruptions. My house payment is relatively low (30 year fixed) & my job will always be in demand.

I will be reporting from the front lines of Mexifornia for as long as I can.
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Re: Who among you thinks you have a good plan worked out?

Postby Aaron » Sat 05 May 2007, 09:06:49

I plan to harvest what I need from local, sustainable farmers & ranchers as tribute for protection.

I'll be protecting you from myself, so I can guarantee results.

I give my plan a 7 of 9... but only because that chick was hot.

All kidding aside...

Any plan that does not meet the needs of the unwashed masses is really very little plan at all.

Because while I'm being sarcastic in this thread about jacking your stuff... others won't be kidding.

What does it cost to prep for the future?

Whatever it costs to defend it...
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

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Re: Who among you thinks you have a good plan worked out?

Postby Jack » Sat 05 May 2007, 09:23:20

My plan is based on the assumption that there will be a slow hard crash. That leads to different ends than would a rapid hard crash scenario.

1) Watchful waiting, locally. My house is of modest size and has been paid off for years. Moving involves frictional costs, which I prefer to avoid. On the downside, demographic changes in San Antonio and points south create risk; on the upside, those risks probably won't manifest into a problem instantly. Should I need to abandon the house, it would be annoying but not devastating.

2) Invest with the expectation of inflation and escalating energy prices. The strategy has been good to me, and I expect the trend to continue. The Federal Government will probably keep the markets going for a time. If things get too frothy, I'll shift to other, more secure areas. If I'm wrong, my asset allocation ratio will let me live adequately while others dig through the garbage.

3) Stockpile. Some food, some clothes, some tools. Lots of weapons and ammunition. No, I can't use more than one at a time - but such things make excellent trade goods. How much is a gun and a box of ammo worth? In times of crises, much. A little gold doesn't hurt either.

4) Network. Get to know people. Mention the possibility of peak oil, and the importance of helping each other - and of the development of a black market.

5) Retreat. Have a place to run to. Preferably good land with water. I have it; though I might wind up living in a trailer (or a tent) when I got there.

I like my plan. I'll give it a 9/10.
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Re: Who among you thinks you have a good plan worked out?

Postby Newsseeker » Sat 05 May 2007, 09:37:17

My plan is to live with my friend in rural North Carolina. In other words I haven't prepared jacksh#t
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Re: Who among you thinks you have a good plan worked out?

Postby Eli » Sat 05 May 2007, 11:10:37

I think Aaron has a valid point.

The water rich North West cost will be over run with people when PO hits full steam. When the LA basin starts to return to a desert the people that live there are not going to head south. They will head north.

By moving North you may end up heavily investing in an area and setting up a nice sustainable place, only to find that you are still trampled by the herd.

I think the best thing to do is to wait and see how things shake out. See which way the wind is blowing then react. By waiting you might save yourself from making a mistake.
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Re: Who among you thinks you have a good plan worked out?

Postby killJOY » Sat 05 May 2007, 11:24:37

For many years, I thought I had a plan (I should say "we": there's two of us). But recently it has occurred to me that "plans" work on the assumption that one has a fair idea about what exactly is going to happen.

I don't anymore.

Also: What good is planning for DOOM if the neighbors aren't prepared?

But anyway.

1. Drive 17 yr old 35 mpg car, maybe three times weekly. Work is 8 miles away. Work there twice a week. Other pt-time job in town. Stay at home a lot. Fixing bicycle soon. Fixing motorcycle soon.

2. Grow just about everything I can think of. 20 years gardening experience. Can, dry, pickle, ferment, freeze, salt meats and vegetables from the farm.

3. Prepared for extended blackouts: Handpump wells, kerosene lamps, backup outhouse, hand operated appliances, wood heat.

4. Very much enjoy doing all of the above. It's no "hair shirt." It's a frickin blast.
Peak oil = comet Kohoutek.
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Re: Who among you thinks you have a good plan worked out?

Postby eastbay » Sat 05 May 2007, 12:31:42

One common element in all of the above plans is that they take lots of money. However much money you think you'll need will probably be insufficient in most cases.

I have a long way to go, but I've come a long way too.

Step one. I recently retired early and moved from a horrifically unsustainable well manicured desert mini-mansion community in California to the a wetter, kinder, cooler place.

Step two. Learning vegetable gardening and fruit tree growing. We did this in California, but growing enough for a family isn't as easy as it appears in books.

Step three. Physical conditioning. I'm a former competitive athlete and I am staying in shape. The kids are studying martial arts. We're all in excellent shape.

Step four. Weapons. Ready now in case things unfold quickly. Plus, they last generations in case things unravel in an orderly fashion.

Step five. Investments. We're still in a 'building phase'. This takes a ton of money to do properly. If you think you can reach self-sufficiency with limited cash you are badly mistaken or incredibly clever. If you own equity in a home in California or in one of many other desert areas, it will at some point evaporate quickly making your eventual exit much more difficult.

Step six. Location. We're walking distance from schools, fresh water, etc ... . We're also at the very outer geographical limit of the urban growth line. We can live just fine here without heat or air conditioning.

Step seven. Be debt free. Done.

Step eight. Spiritual preparedness. Working on this daily.
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Re: Who among you thinks you have a good plan worked out?

Postby Lore » Sat 05 May 2007, 13:42:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newsseeker', 'M')y plan is to live with my friend in rural North Carolina. In other words I haven't prepared jacksh#t


Stay away from the rural Carolinas man; I live here as an immigrant from Michigan. I can tell you they already look and act post peak and it's not a pretty sight!
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
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Re: Who among you thinks you have a good plan worked out?

Postby seahorse » Sat 05 May 2007, 14:00:56

My plan? I'm not worried about myself. I've learned that I can be happy just about anywhere doing anything.

So, my concern is my kids. Its tough to raise kids to be aware but not rob a child of their hopeful, happy, outlook. Getting them to exercise, think, do lots of different things, reading poems, teaching them to value principles and morals, not things; teaching them that happiness is the absence of desire, that no one ever owns anything, things own you; that the only thing to fear is fear, even regarding PO; that happiness is a choice, and, knowing from experience that often times its taks a lot of deprivation to make the joy in life come out; that hard times don't last, hard people do; that the best 401k plan is to have good friends, a good spouse or significant other, someone to share and care.

So, my plan is working on my family and me from the inside, I can't control the outside.
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Re: Who among you thinks you have a good plan worked out?

Postby Lore » Sat 05 May 2007, 14:02:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', 'M')y plan? I'm not worried about myself. I've learned that I can be happy just about anywhere doing anything.

So, my concern is my kids. Its tough to raise kids to be aware but not rob a child of their hopeful, happy, outlook. Getting them to exercise, think, do lots of different things, reading poems, teaching them to value principles and morals, not things; teaching them that happiness is the absence of desire, that no one ever owns anything, things own you; that the only thing to fear is fear, even regarding PO; that happiness is a choice, and, knowing from experience that often times its taks a lot of deprivation to make the joy in life come out; that hard times don't last, hard people do; that the best 401k plan is to have good friends, a good spouse or significant other, someone to share and care.

So, my plan is working on my family and me from the inside, I can't control the outside.


Best plan I've heard so far!
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
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Re: Who among you thinks you have a good plan worked out?

Postby roccman » Sat 05 May 2007, 14:09:02

Plan...

Trust no one.

Buy everything imaginable with worthless dollars on credit...then BK.
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Re: Who among you thinks you have a good plan worked out?

Postby Lore » Sat 05 May 2007, 14:19:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'P')lan...

Trust no one.

Buy everything imaginable with worthless dollars on credit...then BK.


Come now little Conan... you have obviously forgotten "The Riddle of Steel"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eCD7UZKPco0
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
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Re: Who among you thinks you have a good plan worked out?

Postby Twilight » Sat 05 May 2007, 15:16:17

The best plan is not to be alone. The coming energy crisis will regress human society to a far lower level of complexity, but not to pure individualism. Social complexity will still work as a problem-solving mechanism, only at lower levels. In a world like that, you don't want to have been a drone constantly working overtime, without a family and without close friends outside of work. Even a mob provides only minutes of companionship before it dissolves. Its power is fleeting. What will endure is people with diverse skills who know each other well.

I'm going down that road. Everyone else can fight their corner. Most will do so in ignorance, which improves my chances.
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Re: Who among you thinks you have a good plan worked out?

Postby Lore » Sat 05 May 2007, 15:38:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'W')hat will endure is people with diverse skills who know each other well.


I'm not sure I know many people with "diverse skills". Our society has done everything to pressure people into specialization. How does one then form a group?

Even being part of a so called diverse group still does not prepare you for long term survival. Our dependence on the status quo is such that it's almost impossible to survive without the current economic network as a backdrop.

Gone are all the basic ways in which we manufactured, and grew things. You may find a few green acres somewhere away from the roaring crowds, but how do you, seed it, feed it, plant it, fence it... etc. You may be able to do these things once, but the energy pool eventually runs out without external resources.
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
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Re: Who among you thinks you have a good plan worked out?

Postby Twilight » Sat 05 May 2007, 19:14:03

You are correct, which is why most people will be lost, and for a destructive time, susceptible to all sorts of malvolent suggestion.

But some will survive. Not necessarily myself, of course. I can only do what I can, which is avoiding the obvious pitfalls.
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Re: Who among you thinks you have a good plan worked out?

Postby TheDude » Sat 05 May 2007, 21:57:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'P')lan...

Trust no one.

Buy everything imaginable with worthless dollars on credit...then BK.


Was ist das BK? Does it have something to do with the PPT?

BK.

Beyonce Knowles? Burger King?

I hope to hit Sweet Light Crude. Over in meatspace I'm more interested in foraging, bought an excellent mycology ID book the other day. Gotta know your toxic amanitas from your M'am on Motorcycle.

Image

Still all theoretical mostly. Getting into shape is a good first step. Want to own my own lodging in a very small town (500 people max) way away from the maddening crowd.
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Re: Who among you thinks you have a good plan worked out?

Postby kochevnik » Sat 05 May 2007, 22:18:26

This is a good thread - how about more people sticking to the OP tho !

I find it interesting to see how many longtime posters here who have changed their original ideas about plans to something different (myself included).


Since the plan is determined by my SWAG scenario - mine is a long slide of 10 to 15 years (starting NOW) followed by a nasty war(s) in the 2020-2025 timeframe.

Our plan :

1) Make some more money while we still can.

2) Use that money first to learn some new skills - machining/gunsmithing is at the top of my list. have made some progress in this already (3 years of PT work) but have far to go.

3) Use some more of that money to build up a homestead near a small town or a small USEFUL business IN a small town.

4) Stay out of debt and build up diversified savings - cash - gold - silver - trading goods

5) Raise my kids to be able to adjust (as well as possible) to what is coming.

6) Store some stuff

7) Try to remain as flexible/agile as possible in terms of living style so that I can adjust (as well as possible) to what is coming.

8) Keep my mouth shut (except for here).



I give my plan a 7 out of 10.
Last edited by kochevnik on Sat 05 May 2007, 22:27:07, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Who among you thinks you have a good plan worked out?

Postby Chaparral » Sat 05 May 2007, 22:25:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'W')hat will endure is people with diverse skills who know each other well.


I'm not sure I know many people with "diverse skills". Our society has done everything to pressure people into specialization. How does one then form a group?

Even being part of a so called diverse group still does not prepare you for long term survival. Our dependence on the status quo is such that it's almost impossible to survive without the current economic network as a backdrop.


Funny you should mention this. I just spent all last weekend scouting out real estate with about a dozen such people, a few of whom lurk or post here. Trust me, this group is smart. Some are wise. most are extremely capable in many more ways than one: the skill sets are all over the map and more than a few seem to be successful small business owners. We are all pretty much in agreement on where the world's going and how best to try and survive it, and holing up in a mountain bunker with guns, MREs and a few dried out seeds ain't it.
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