grink1tt3n said:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut if there is now another 500 Btu left to fry another egg, then your friend can and will fry his, and you'll be at the same place you were when it cost 1000 Btu to fry an egg.
PeakOil is You
THE Jevons Paradox Thread Pt. 2
Re: Efficiency Policy, Jevon’s Paradox, and the “Shadow” Reb
by shortonoil » Sun 29 Apr 2007, 19:22:14
That is true only if he puts a top on his pan, that is, he conserves. There is only 500 Btu. It is also possible that buying the first 500 drove up the price so now he can’t afford the second 500 Btu. But that has no effect on the fact that there would still only be 500 Btu
available and the one that conserves the most gets to utilize it.
The point is that conservation will not save energy, because of Jevons' paradox. Which is just another way of saying that an energy source, of any particular ERoEI, will provide supply as a function of that ERoEI, and we are assuming that we will utilize, at some point, all available energy. That is a definition of life as we know it (we spawn until we run out of food). As the ERoEI goes down so does the amount of energy available to be used. Conservation can, however, improve an otherwise lower standard of living in a world where the ERoEI of energy is declining. It does not increase the amount of energy available; that is determined exclusively by the thermodynamic properties of the energy source.
What I am saying here is that with perhaps a 2-5% decline in available energy in the near future, conservation will provide a better standard of living, than not conserving. That will be important to maintain as much social integrity as possible which can allow for the greatest chance of social transition with a minimum loss to that society. Horse sense 101.
-
shortonoil - False ETP Prophet
- Posts: 7132
- Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
- Location: VA USA
Re: Efficiency Policy, Jevon’s Paradox, and the “Shadow” Reb
by MonteQuest » Sun 29 Apr 2007, 20:26:59
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '[')b]MonteQuest said:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f conservation is able to take some of the sting out, then it will be able to increase available supply, which will lower the price relative to what it might have been, thus increasing consumption back up the the current supply limit.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f conservation is able to take some of the sting out, then it will be able to increase available supply, which will lower the price relative to what it might have been, thus increasing consumption back up the the current supply limit.
This is again a regurgitation of the economist flat earth view; that money creates energy. This is flat wrong; energy creates money. If a society has X Btu available to it, and only X, then no matter what the price, you still only have X Btu to expend. Because people save money doesn’t mean there will be energy to buy, the price becomes completely irrelevant if the supply is not there.
DUH? I didn't say money creates energy. Nowhere in that quote is it even implied. I said conservation or efficiency gains increases the available supply...which will be consumed by the increase in consumption as the price drops.
Conservation means there will be energy to buy if it can beat decline. If not, then it is once more a fool's errand.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
-
MonteQuest - Expert
- Posts: 16593
- Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
- Location: Westboro, MO
Re: Efficiency Policy, Jevon’s Paradox, and the “Shadow” Reb
by MonteQuest » Sun 29 Apr 2007, 20:34:02
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', 'T')his is how conversation can work: lets say it requires 1000 Btu to fry an egg (one burnt egg!). You don’t have the money to buy 1000 Btu, so you put a lid on the fry pan and now it only takes 500 Btu. You can buy 500, so you have a fried egg. Conservation did not increase the available supply, it merely utilized what you had more efficiently.
It sure as hell did. Rather than use 1000 BTu, you use only 500 btu, thus increasing the available supply to someone else, or to you, to fry another egg.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
-
MonteQuest - Expert
- Posts: 16593
- Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
- Location: Westboro, MO
.
