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THE Jevons Paradox Thread Pt. 2

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation

Postby thuja » Sun 28 Jan 2007, 13:52:26

Sure conservation is possible- its called a massive sustained Depression. We'll all be conserving baby- whether we like it or not.
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Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation

Postby Revi » Mon 29 Jan 2007, 09:26:34

Conservation and efficiency save my household $2250 per year. Every year we save that amount. It has emboldened me to buy a new fuel efficient vehicle. The money we saved has allowed us to put on solar hot water panels to capture sunlight that we didn't have access to before.

The guys who came to put them on started with 1 truck a few years ago. Now they are up to 7 trucks and 14 guys working. They are exploiting a "new" energy source, but they are growing, and the local economy is benefitting. The money is staying local. These guys have families and are probably buying cars, heating houses, etc. I guess I am proposing a new way of switching energy sources. Efficiency and conservation allow more people to live an adequate life, and probably add up to more energy used, but some of it comes from an unexploited source, the sun. What's the matter with that?
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Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation

Postby Aaron » Mon 29 Jan 2007, 09:32:20

IBID
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

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Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation

Postby thuja » Mon 29 Jan 2007, 12:54:07

Well Revi- from your vantage point, and the vantage point of the folks starting this new industry, there is nothing wrong with what you are doing. In fact, it makes complete sense and I would encourage it.

But from a macroeconomic viewpoint, your conservation efforts are simply shifting the chits on the table. You may be "conserving" by using less apparent fossil fuels, but you are using fossil fuels in the form of the production materials neccessary to produce solar panels, fuels for distribution, etc.

And from a larger persepctive, if your efforts really pay off and do conserve fossil fuels, and your neighbors and larger community do the same, then there will be more supply of fossil fuels on the market. This in turn will make fossil fuels cheaper (due to the glut) and some community somewhere else will take advantage of the cheap price of fossil fuels.

So on a larger level, you are making no difference whatsoever and in fact may be causing the unintended consequence of spurring excessive consumption elsewhere. That means that on a larger scale, your choices and your community's "Green" choices to conserve may actually have the adverse effect of causing more consumption.

But...the question becomes- so what should you do? Throw up your hands and stop conserving. Hell no- because you are seeing an immediate visible economic effect for yourself. You are also trying to reduce your footprint and live a life with less fossil fuels- knowing they will become scarce and exhorbitant in price soon.

An example would be- your whole community is addicted to cocaine. But if your community makes a concerted effort to stop snorting cocaine, the price of coke will plummet and some poor fools down the road will take advantage of the cheaper price and snort a lot more coke. Is that your fault? No.

So keep on conserving...its the right thing to do. But don't imagine you are making any dent on the fossil fuel energy crisis. You may be making it worse.
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Jevon's sunspots

Postby grabby » Wed 14 Feb 2007, 01:32:00

Besides the famous paradox, Jevon found that business cycles related to sunspot activity.

Jevons asserted that crises in the economy occurred in cycles, instead of at random intervals. Also, he stated that there seemed to be an association between business cycles and sunspots. His reasoning was that sunspots affected the weather on earth, which, in turn, affected crops. These changes in crops resulted in economic changes. -wiki

Just interesting.
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Efficiency Policy, Jevon’s Paradox, and the “Shadow” Rebound

Postby Newsseeker » Fri 27 Apr 2007, 08:23:33

Efficiency Policy, Jevon’s Paradox, and the “Shadow” Rebound Effect

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')s the push for greater energy efficiency a good policy choice to address energy scarcity after Peak Oil? Here’s a bold answer: NO, at least not in a vacuum. Efficiency is not a standalone solution, but part of the much more complex problem of reducing total energy consumption that must address Jevon’s Paradox and the Rebound Effect.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2499
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Re: Efficiency Policy, Jevon’s Paradox, and the “Shadow” Reb

Postby joewp » Fri 27 Apr 2007, 12:33:49

This is why it's not worth conserving for a higher purpose, even for environmental reasons. About the only reason left to conserve is to accustom yourself to a low energy future.
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Re: Efficiency Policy, Jevon’s Paradox, and the “Shadow” Reb

Postby steam_cannon » Fri 27 Apr 2007, 12:36:27

Yeah, I've heard this argument before. If you make the system more efficient there will be freed up resources for making more people...

Population is the real problem and challenge. In the future, if we can maintain our current population, create a smaller future population, and avoid rounds of mass starvation... Well, that would be an amazing accomplishment by humanity. More likely one of the four horsemen will lead in this task.
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Re: Efficiency Policy, Jevon’s Paradox, and the “Shadow” Reb

Postby Pablo2079 » Fri 27 Apr 2007, 13:07:02

Another reason to conserve is to save money.
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Re: Efficiency Policy, Jevon’s Paradox, and the “Shadow” Reb

Postby BlisteredWhippet » Fri 27 Apr 2007, 14:12:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pablo2079', 'A')nother reason to conserve is to save money.


Saved money's value inflates away.

Invested money is used to finance entropy capitalism- someone else uses the money to use energy in some (usually destructive) economic enterprise.

I think the article is spot on recommmending the "design imperative". Somehow we need a cohesive social democracy to channel society's degenerative effects in useful, constructive ways, or at least make it impossible for society and culture to produce the noxious effects that will harm it.

The Gov. needs to shape the society with a mandate from the people. Hold on a sec, I need to hit this massive spliff...
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Re: Efficiency Policy, Jevon’s Paradox, and the “Shadow” Reb

Postby Ludi » Fri 27 Apr 2007, 15:01:47

A reason to conserve is to live within the ability of the local ecosystem to provide, and to reduce the need to earn. This is different from "saving money" as it reduces one's dependence on the current economic system.


We need a basic understanding of ecology, and societal values which reflect that understanding. It doesn't need to be any more complicated than that.
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Re: Efficiency Policy, Jevon’s Paradox, and the “Shadow” Reb

Postby sameu » Fri 27 Apr 2007, 15:03:53

you could use the saved money to buy non-material non-oily stuff like information, certain services, eerm designer clothing instead of the regular stuff
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Re: Efficiency Policy, Jevon’s Paradox, and the “Shadow” Reb

Postby Loki » Fri 27 Apr 2007, 15:47:57

The guy can't even spell Jevons. Why should I listen to anything he says about something he can't even spell? I stopped reading after the title.
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Re: Efficiency Policy, Jevon’s Paradox, and the “Shadow” Reb

Postby tsakach » Fri 27 Apr 2007, 15:49:53

Does Jevons Paradox apply to off-grid energy production and consumption, where the energy savings cannot be redistributed elsewhere?
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Re: Efficiency Policy, Jevon’s Paradox, and the “Shadow” Reb

Postby joewp » Fri 27 Apr 2007, 16:09:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tsakach', 'D')oes Jevons Paradox apply to off-grid energy production and consumption, where the energy savings cannot be redistributed elsewhere?


Yes, because the money you didn't spend on the energy can be saved (and invested in) or spent on, other energy consuming activities.
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Re: Efficiency Policy, Jevon’s Paradox, and the “Shadow” Reb

Postby tsakach » Fri 27 Apr 2007, 16:41:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tsakach', 'D')oes Jevons Paradox apply to off-grid energy production and consumption, where the energy savings cannot be redistributed elsewhere?


Yes, because the money you didn't spend on the energy can be saved (and invested in) or spent on, other energy consuming activities.


Off-grid energy use does not work the same as with grid-connected markets. The energy was purchased up front with an investment in solar panels, batteries, etc. Subsequent increases in efficiency does not result in additional money to spend elsewhere. Also, with off-grid energy systems, no market exists to redistrubute surplus energy resulting from conservation efforts.
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Re: Efficiency Policy, Jevon’s Paradox, and the “Shadow” Reb

Postby Newsseeker » Fri 27 Apr 2007, 19:59:51

The author wants programs without the rebound. Given Jevons Paradox for the life of me I can't think of any. Can you?
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Re: Efficiency Policy, Jevon’s Paradox, and the “Shadow” Reb

Postby Loki » Fri 27 Apr 2007, 22:41:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newsseeker', 'T')he author wants programs without the rebound. Given Jevons Paradox for the life of me I can't think of any. Can you?

The Jevons Paradox is a hypothesis that is far from universally accepted (with the notable exception of the members of this forum, where it's gospel truth for some reason). I can think of at least two or three studies off the top of my head that fail to show any sign of the so-called paradox when looking at both electricity and gasoline at large spatial scales. On the contrary, they find that energy efficiency measures do exactly what common sense says they do---they save energy. There is a small takeback effect, but most studies put this at ~20%, often less. The religion of Jevons here on PO.com assumes the takeback effect is >100%, which is, as one economist put it, "palpably implausible."

Take whatever people here say about Jevons with a BIG grain of salt. As I pointed out earlier, most people (including both Monte and Aaron) can't even spell the man's name. How much confidence do you have that they will be able to rigorously evaluate his hypothesis and its modern equivalents?
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Re: Efficiency Policy, Jevon’s Paradox, and the “Shadow” Reb

Postby joewp » Fri 27 Apr 2007, 23:53:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newsseeker', 'T')he author wants programs without the rebound. Given Jevons Paradox for the life of me I can't think of any. Can you?

The Jevons Paradox is a hypothesis that is far from universally accepted (with the notable exception of the members of this forum, where it's gospel truth for some reason). I can think of at least two or three studies off the top of my head that fail to show any sign of the so-called paradox when looking at both electricity and gasoline at large spatial scales. On the contrary, they find that energy efficiency measures do exactly what common sense says they do---they save energy. There is a small takeback effect, but most studies put this at ~20%, often less. The religion of Jevons here on PO.com assumes the takeback effect is >100%, which is, as one economist put it, "palpably implausible."

Take whatever people here say about Jevons with a BIG grain of salt. As I pointed out earlier, most people (including both Monte and Aaron) can't even spell the man's name. How much confidence do you have that they will be able to rigorously evaluate his hypothesis and its modern equivalents?


Actually, you spell it wrong too. It's Jevons' Paradox.

Energy efficiencies don't "save" energy. If they do, please show me how the US is using less energy than 1970, since we have far more fuel efficient cars today. Please show how the US is using less electricity today, since every major appliance is far more efficient than 20 years ago. Please show how we're using less nat gas since houses are far better insulated than 30 years ago. If you have these studies "off the top of your head" please provide a link or something, because every single efficiency in the past has resulted in more energy use today.
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Re: Efficiency Policy, Jevon’s Paradox, and the “Shadow” Reb

Postby Loki » Sat 28 Apr 2007, 00:16:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', 'A')ctually, you spell it wrong too. It's Jevons' Paradox.

Uh, no, it's the Jevons Paradox, exactly how I expressed it. How surprising, yet another Jevons devotee who hasn't read the literature but still uses the hypothesis to justify his lack of conservation. Yawn.

And you don't honestly think energy-efficient appliances are the cause of increased electricity use, do you? This is such a simple-minded explanation it boggles the brain. Sorry if I come off as arrogant (OK, not that sorry), but give me a fucking break.
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