[Torion]

Thank You!

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('XOVERX', 'I')nteresting article. Hopefully the Republicans will get these projects going.

[lorenzo]

I have never heard of this Hirsch person. Is he someone like Kunstler?

I have heard though of the ease with which the U.S. will be able to substitute 30% of all its liquid fuel needs by 2030, simply by investing in second generation biofuels. Physical mitigation is a piece of cake here. And that's official. Not some person.

http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/jul2006 ... -07-01.asp

And if ever you feel the need to displace more than 30%, just give me a call and I'll send you a million barrels of biofuels a day from the tropics.

Of course, getting the billions won't be a problem either, because these biofuels are already competitive with oil. And if you invest in them, you make a lot of money. That's why people like Bill Gates, Richard Branson and George Soros are pouring money into them. They know a thing or two about making money. So the billions are streaming in, billion by billion, but they're streaming in.

It's a no-brainer, the U.S. has enough resources - both physical as well as financial - to displace a fat amount of oil, easily. No matter who this Hirsch person may be or what he writes about.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', 'I') have heard though of the ease with which the U.S. will be able to substitute 30% of all its liquid fuel needs by 2030, simply by investing in second generation biofuels. Physical mitigation is a piece of cake here. And that's official. Not some person.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', 'I') have never heard of this Hirsch person.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', 'I') have never heard of this Hirsch person.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', 'E')lse he wouldn't stake America's future on biofuels, would he?

[Leanan]

From this month's World Oil Magazine:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') number of influential people have recently remarked about the end of the era of “easy” and/or low-cost oil. While their definitions vary, they believe that the world oil enterprise has entered a new, more difficult, more expensive phase. Important commentators include Samuel Bodman, US Secretary of Energy, David O’Reilly, Chairman of Chevron, Jeroen van der Veer, Shell Chief Executive, Alpha Oumar Konare, African Union Commission Chair, and Viktor Khristenko, Russian Energy Minister. It is thus reasonable to conclude that the oil business has fundamentally changed.

[Twilight]

So they basically admit the whole thing. Nice of them to print summary tables too. In the 2005-2040 range, almost no-one places peak past 2015. Thanks for that. Kinda torpedoes the notion that this is a fringe issue.

Oh, and I like this bit: $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('US Energy Information Administration', '[')Our] results [related to oil peaking] are remarkably insensitive to the assumption of alternative resource base estimates.

[Leanan]

Don't worry, the EIA and CERA are more optimistic than ever.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'D')on't worry, the EIA and CERA are more optimistic than ever.

[WildRose]

. As access to resources increasingly is taken out of the control of market forces and placed under the control of governments and government-controlled entities, the ability to supply energy markets increasingly becomes a government decision rather than a market decision.

“Unfortunately, government decisions often are swayed less by what is best for the market and consumers than by what is in the best interests of individual nations or political ideologies. As politics intrude more and more into future energy decision making, the collective security of consumers and producers erodes and can fall prey to political whims and disruptive policies based on non-energy goals. Bold steps to alter course are required.”

I think this section should convince the average reader that we're facing some trouble ahead.

Also, I found it interesting to see the tables of the predictions of the timeline of peak, as it is so obvious that those who stand to lose the most money say peak is the furthest out. I point this out for any newbies to peak oil.

[WildRose]

Note, my post above - the first two paragraphs are from the article and I meant to have them bolded.

[dinopello]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'H')ow will they spin it?

[DesertBear2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hirsch', '
')“Unfortunately, government decisions often are swayed less by what is best for the market and consumers than by what is in the best interests of individual nations or political ideologies.

[Newsseeker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'D')on't worry, the EIA and CERA are more optimistic than ever.

[highlander]

Somebody check my math!
according to this article, Mid east oil discoveries in the last ten years only amount to 6 months demand? that's harsh!

[PeakingAroundtheCorner]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WildRose', 'A')lso, I found it interesting to see the tables of the predictions of the timeline of peak, as it is so obvious that those who stand to lose the most money say peak is the furthest out. I point this out for any newbies to peak oil.

[criticalmass]

Producing 60+ Billion barrels of biofuels in 20 years doesn't seem do-able. For that matter, it doesn't seem right. What are we missing here? Oh yeah.
I've head of Hirsch. I've heard of Daniel Quinn too. I credit these two people with bring a lot of what I've always thought into meaningful, desriptive words. Read more from both if you haven't already.
Peak Oil IS real. We're seeing it now. As crafty as we are, you may see it drug out over the next 10 years (max) but that's it. No more.

[Starvid]

Robert Hirsch, of Hirsch report fame, has made a new study, this time on the economic effects of Peak Oil. He thinks we will see a decline in GDP roughly equal to the decline in oil production, that is 2-5 % a year until mitigation can kick in. Ouch.
A briefing (pdf!) can be found here: pdf

The last slide:


And this guy is no fly-weight.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')r. Robert L. Hirsch is a Senior Energy Program Advisor at SAIC. His past positions include Senior Energy Analyst at RAND; Executive Advisor to the President of Advanced Power Technologies, Inc.; Vice President, Washington Office, Electric Power Research Institute; Vice President and Manager of Research, ARCO Oil and Gas Company; Chief Executive Officer of ARCO Power Technologies, a company that he founded; Manager, Baytown Research and Development Division and General Manager, Exploratory Research, Exxon Research and Engineering Company; Assistant Administrator for Solar, Geothermal, and Advanced Energy Systems (Presidential Appointment), and Director, Division of Magnetic Fusion Energy Research, U.S. Energy Research and Development Administration. During the 1970s, he ran the US fusion energy program, including initiation of the Tokamak fusion test reactor.

He has served on numerous advisory committees, including the DOE Energy Research Advisory Board. He has been a member of several National Research Council (NRC) committees, including Fuels To Drive Our Future and the 1979 and recent NRC hydrogen studies. He was chairman of the NRC Committee to Examine the Research Needs of the Advanced Extraction and Process Technology Program (Oil & gas). He is immediate past chairman of the Board on Energy and Environmental Systems and is a National Associate of the National Academies.