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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE "I Confess" Thread (merged)

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Unread postby brobak » Wed 10 Aug 2005, 14:37:17

LadyRuby:

Yeah. I'm tired of living here in the city. And, to top if off of course, is my belief in PO, and my desire to become prepared.

I've tried to take as reasonable an approach as possible, finding the right balance between my desires (100% prepare, lets just friggin do it right!) and the desires of my fiance who, I think, knows about PO, but doesn't really want to believe in it.

So to that end, I've got 5.5 acres of 3/4 wooded, south sloping land out in WV, just south of Martinsburg. I've got a small stream on the property, and I'm about 4 miles from a huge apple farm, with some other local farming going on as well.

The house that we're going with is an earth sheletered design, consisting of two modules, seperated by an 18 foot wide, two story, more conventional stick frame construction. The "front" of the house will face south, to make use of passive solar, while the "back" of the house will face the driveway. You'll actually enter on the "back"of the house, and from the road, it will appear to be a single story, small vacation cottage, as the rest of it will be underground. You'll go in, maybe through a small foyer area, and see what might end up being the living room, and then everything else is "downstairs" and earth sheltered.

Bedrooms, kitchen, sunroom, family rooms, stuff like that. I'm also going out this fall to clear some of the wooded area's and plant some fruit/nut trees, as well as getting some wood chopped so it can age.

Active cooling shouldnt be required in the home, as the ground will keep the house around 65 all year long. As for heat, the pasive solar is intended to be the main option, backed up by a large wood stove, and possibly some radiaant floor heating run by two large solar collectors on the roof.

Money permitting, I also intend to install active solar PV panels, in an effort to become energy neutral for myself. The septic is going to be leach field, which requires less emptying than sealed systems, and I also intend to install rain collection tanks connected to a corrogated metal roof that will act as a lean-to/covered parking at the top of my lot. I hope to use the rain water for grey water systems, and the garden to start, and be able to convert it for whole house use if necessary.

The whole thing should come in around 225k or so, and I'll have something like 60k to put down on the home. So I'll actually end up financing less than my mortgage is now. The last bit of the plan is to let my fiance work (she's a pharmacist) for the "disposable" funds, while I take every penny I earn (I'm a network security analyst) and pay down the house. We'll own the land outright, and IF PO can hold off , we could pay down the house in about 4 years. After that, any extra time we're given will be used stockpiling, or expanding the systems we already have in place.

Thats the plan anyways. But you know what they say, the best laid plans of mice and men...

In the interim, I plan on working from home at least two days a week, and riding the MARC train into DC the other days. I just hope I can get all that done before something reall BIG or BAD happens. Time will tell.
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Osama's offensive is economics

Unread postby Petrodollar » Wed 10 Aug 2005, 15:05:31

About a year ago I think we learned exactly where in the US Al Qaeda is most interested in disrupting. (although at the time it was likely used by the administration to dampen Kerry's post-convention "polling bouce" in their ongoing strategy of control utilzing the "politics of fear")

Anyhow, here's a memory refresher with the following exert from my book (Petrodollar Warfare), pages 176-178. BTW, I highly recommend the book Imperial Hubris, even if I disagree with some of the author's recommendations, his book provided me with a wealth of information...I hope others find this info interesting too:

Osama bin Laden’s Offensive: Economics Not Religion

Therefore, I am telling you, and God is my witness, whether America escalates or de-escalates the conflict, we will reply to it in kind, God willing. God is my witness, the youth of Islam are preparing things that will fill your hearts with fear. They will target key sectors of your economy until you stop your injustice and aggression or until the more short-lived of us die. [emphasis added]

- Statement by Usama bin Laden, October 6, 2002

Bin Laden dwelled on al-Qaida’s economic strategy against the United States in portions of an 18-minute video aired Friday on the Arab television station al-Jazeera …. [Bin Laden] credited the religiously inspired Arab volunteers who he fought with against the Soviets in Afghanistan with having “bled Russia for 10 years, until it went bankrupt and was forced to withdraw in defeat.” He suggested the same strategy would work against the United States. “So we are continuing this policy in bleeding America to the point of bankruptcy.”

- “Bin Laden Says He Wants to Bankrupt America,” Chicago Sun-Times, November 2, 2004


On September 11, 2001, Al Qaeda terrorists attacked a major economic symbol of US financial power in New York — the World Trade Towers. On August 2, 2004, the Office of Homeland Security instigated heightened security alerts at five US specific locations. Bizarrely, the following day the media revealed that these “urgent” warnings were based upon evidence collected “two or three years” ago and that there was “no evidence of recent surveillance” by members of Al Qaeda.

Not surprisingly, various commentators suggested political motivations behind these dated “terror alerts” as they occurred just after the Democratic National Convention. Regardless of the political aspects, this alert provided valuable insight into several identified targets as part of bin Laden’s “offensive” against the US economy:

• International Monetary Fund in Washington
• World Bank headquarters in Washington
• New York Stock Exchange in New York
• Citigroup Center in New York
• Prudential Financial building in Newark, New Jersey

Based on this list, Osama bin Laden is evidently not interested in attacking US civilians in shopping malls, schools, apartment buildings, vacation areas like Disneyland, or historic monuments like the Statue of Liberty, but rather Al Qaeda had specifically targeted the centers of US financial power. This strategy is not surprising considering that, as a young man, bin Laden studied economics. His stated grievances are based on specific US foreign policies — most of which relate to the projection of military power in the Persian Gulf and central Asian regions, including the financial/military subsidy of Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait.

Supporting assertions that bin Laden and his small band of followers are motivated by US foreign policies can be found in Imperial Hubris: Why the West is Losing the War on Terror. It provided an exceptionally candid appraisal of bin Laden’s grievances and those of much of the Muslim world, which the author stated have been specifically and consistently repeated as relating to US foreign policies. This “anonymous” author was later identified as Michael Scheuer, a 17-year-veteran of the CIA, and former chief of the Usama bin Laden Unit, Counterterrorist Center, 1997–1999. Scheuer makes the important point that al Qaeda’s intentions follow Clausewitz’s principle of attacking one’s foe at their “center of gravity.” In late 2002 Abu-Ubayd al-Qurashi, an Al Qaeda operative, wrote an essay clearly stating that Al Qaeda’s goal is to “direct all available force against the [US’s] center of gravity during the great offensive.” Moreover, this essay indicated that Al Qaeda had identified America’s center of gravity as its economy.

'A conviction has formed among the mujahedin that American public opinion is not the center of gravity in America. The Zionist lobbies, and with them the security agencies, have long been able to bridle all the media that control the formation of public opinion in America. This time it is clearly apparent that the American economy is the American center of gravity ….
This is what Shaykh Usama Bin Laden has said quite explicitly. Supporting this penetrating strategic view is that the Disunited States of America are a mixture of nationalities, ethnic groups, and races united only by the “American Dream,” or to put it more correctly, worship of the dollar, which they openly call “the Almighty Dollar.” [emphasis added]

- Abu-Ubayd al-Qurashi, “A Lesson in War,” Al-Ansar (Al Qaeda’s Internet website), December 19, 2002

Statements by Osama bin Laden in conjunction with the August 2004 “terror warning” of previously “cased” targets exposed his political goals as having a strong economic component. Targeting the massive World Trade Center Towers and the Pentagon coincide with his stated goals, both figuratively and literally. Therefore, it is logical to deduce that Al Qaeda may seek to create a panic on the US dollar by attacking certain financial centers. Perhaps that strategy presumes that a currency collapse and subsequently crippled economy could no longer finance a global military empire, nor could Washington continue to provide annual multi-billion dollar subsidies in money and advanced US weaponry to Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, and Kuwait. Why else would Osama bin Laden specifically case or target the east coast’s five principle financial centers?

Based on this analysis, the risks of not achieving a compromise on the global monetary system could create very adverse effects on US national security. Could Al Qaeda eventually succeed in a terrorist attack upon US financial centers in an effort to create a dollar crash and global monetary crisis? Could events unfold and cause a domestic uprising against the Saudi monarchy that results in “regime change”? Either of these events could result in a massive divestiture of Saudi assets from the US, a currency collapse, potentially leading to a formal accord creating a monopoly petroeuro system within OPEC — as opposed to the preferred dual-currency oil transaction standard.

Considering that these risk factors will only become more salient in the post-Peak Oil environment, Washington policy-makers should begin negotiations with the EU and OPEC regarding the plausibility of a dollar-euro trading band with $1.00 to €1.00 parity valuations, along with a formal dual-currency oil transaction standard. In theory, such an arrangement would protect the dollar from a potentially catastrophic devaluation; provide the European community with a stabilized oil bill, and build the foundation for a strong economic partnership between the US and the EU.

Footnotes for this exert:

40. Anonymous, Imperial Hubris: The West Is Losing the War on Terror, Brassey’s, 2004, p. 17.
41. Donna Bryson, “Bin Laden Says He Wants to Bankrupt America,” Chicago Sun-Times, November 2, 2004, http://www.suntimes.com/output/terror/c ... den02.html.
42. Dan Eggen and John Mintz, “Seriousness of Threat Defended Despite Dated Intelligence,” Washington Post, August 4, 2004, A11, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/ar ... 4Aug3.html.
43. Ibid.
44. Anonymous, op. cit.
45. Ibid.
46. Ibid.
47. Ibid., p. 101.
Last edited by Petrodollar on Thu 11 Aug 2005, 11:04:13, edited 1 time in total.
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Unread postby k_semler » Wed 10 Aug 2005, 20:12:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VinceG', '
')
Currently, Bush' approval rate has sunk to 45%, the lowest of his presidency. Bush is in a very BAD need for some (?!) kind of major event that will boost his approval rate again, giving him unlimited opportunities to conduct military action (against Iran...) or install new Patriot acts...

I'm afraid that we'll very soon see some major 'terrorist' attack again, that will be legitimized by the Bush government to start wars and install new laws...


Why should Bush care whether anyone approves of him or not? He is not up for re-election again. Why are the DemonRats still campaigning against bush? The 2004 election is over, and he can't run again. They should be more concerned with making Comrade Hitlery Clintoon, (misspelling on purpose), appear to be a moderate if they want her to get any votes during the '08 presidential election.
Here Lies the United States Of America.

July 04, 1776 - June 23 2005

Epitaph: "The Experiment Is Over."

Rest In Peace.

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Unread postby SupplyConcerns » Wed 10 Aug 2005, 20:34:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('k_semler', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VinceG', '
')
Currently, Bush' approval rate has sunk to 45%, the lowest of his presidency. Bush is in a very BAD need for some (?!) kind of major event that will boost his approval rate again, giving him unlimited opportunities to conduct military action (against Iran...) or install new Patriot acts...

I'm afraid that we'll very soon see some major 'terrorist' attack again, that will be legitimized by the Bush government to start wars and install new laws...


Why should Bush care whether anyone approves of him or not? He is not up for re-election again. Why are the DemonRats still campaigning against bush? The 2004 election is over, and he can't run again. They should be more concerned with making Comrade Hitlery Clintoon, (misspelling on purpose), appear to be a moderate if they want her to get any votes during the '08 presidential election.


Haha... thought the subtlety of your misspellings might be lost on us?
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Unread postby AlCzervik » Wed 10 Aug 2005, 21:54:37

Mr. Clark, if OBL is smart enough to know to strike the U.S. economically, why are we not seeing all-out assault on oil fields/pipelines/refineries/installations in Saudi Arabia?

What is your position on OBL being a CIA asset? Is he pawn, or does he run the show on his own?
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Re: Osama's offensive is economics

Unread postby DantesPeak » Thu 11 Aug 2005, 02:30:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Petrodollar', '
')
Based on this analysis, the risks of not achieving a compromise on the global monetary system could create very adverse effects on US national security. Could Al Qaeda eventually succeed in a terrorist attack upon US financial centers in an effort to create a dollar crash and global monetary crisis? Could events unfold and cause a domestic uprising against the Saudi monarchy that results in “regime change”? Either of these events could result in a massive divestiture of Saudi assets from the US, a currency collapse, potentially leading to a formal accord creating a monopoly petroeuro system within OPEC — as opposed to the preferred dual-currency oil transaction standard.

Considering that these risk factors will only become more salient in the post-Peak Oil environment, Washington policy-makers should begin negotiations with the EU and OPEC regarding the plausibility of a dollar-euro trading band with $1.00 to €1.00 parity valuations, along with a formal dual-currency oil transaction standard. In theory, such an arrangement would protect the dollar from a potentially catastrophic devaluation; provide the European community with a stabilized oil bill, and build the foundation for a strong economic partnership between the US and the EU.


Thanks for sharing your thoughts again on this subject. It is extremely interesting and important for our understanding of oil and the future of the US dollar.

In regards to the possible sale of Saudi assets which you mentioned, do you care to comment on this UPI story?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')IYADH, Saudi Arabia, Aug. 7 (UPI) -- Saudi Arabia said Sunday it was working to bring back to the kingdom a total of $360 billion invested abroad in the last 18 months.

Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal told reporters the government was working on returning these "national assets" back to the oil-rich Arab country and to attract foreign investments in Saudi Arabia.
He said the kingdom has "established qualified institutions for that purpose," but did not elaborate.

The minister added that the "smooth way" in which power was handed over to new King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz after King Fahd's death last week meant a continuation of stability.

"We hope these measures taken on the economic front will return the Saudi funds," Prince Saud said.
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Re: Confession of fears for myself here in DC

Unread postby The_Toecutter » Thu 11 Aug 2005, 03:38:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hey should be more concerned with making Comrade Hitlery Clintoon, (misspelling on purpose), appear to be a moderate if they want her to get any votes during the '08 presidential election.


If Hillary wants to be a moderate, she's got to move to the left quite a bit...

Lets see the major three items the warebitch approved of, to refresh everyone's memories:

1) Unconstitutional oil grab in Iraq
2) Unconstitutional PATRIOT Act
3) Unconstitutional Homeland Security Department

As did practically everyone else in congress. As far as our legislature is concerned, America's 'left' is very small in number, and you don't have a whole lot of centrists either. Both the democrats and republicans are fairly extreme when it comes to control over people's personal lives, and both agree that the enhancement of bureaucratic owned property is justified at the expense of civil liberties.

It would be nice if the greens would replace the democrats and the libertarians would replace the republicans. It would balance things out. Social conservatives? Sorry, the constitution does not allow the government to enforce certain religious moral standards onto the population, of which not everyone agrees with said religion or those standards.
The unnecessary felling of a tree, perhaps the old growth of centuries, seems to me a crime little short of murder. ~Thomas Jefferson
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Re: Confession of fears for myself here in DC

Unread postby Petrodollar » Thu 11 Aug 2005, 11:12:20

Dantes Peak,
Actually, I have no clue as to that strange Saudi article about foreign investments. I wish I did, but I'll wait and see what, if anything, develops... (not enough detail to make any speculations)
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Re: Confession of fears for myself here in DC

Unread postby Petrodollar » Thu 11 Aug 2005, 11:24:21

ALCezick,
I'm not sure I understand your question....

"if OBL is smart enough to know to strike the U.S. economically, why are we not seeing all-out assault on oil fields/pipelines/refineries/installations in Saudi Arabia?"

I don't see how that would serve bin Laden's stated goals. He wants us to change our foreign policies, not destroy Saudi's source of wealth.

BTW, the US gets less than 25% of it s oil from Saudi, and while disrupting Saudi's oil flow hurts us, it also hurts the other 75% of the world community. I think bin Laden wants the Saudi's to stop splitting all that oil wealth with the US. Bin Laden thinks the House of Saud is hopelessly corrupt, and should be overthrown, but he does not want to destroy the oil infastructure, despite claims to the contrary by right-leaning news sources. (Attacks on Iraq infastructure appears to be a different story, but that is obviously a complicated situation..)

That false construct of "protecting" pipelines is often used to justify deployment of the US military to "secure" the flow of oil (not only in the Middle East, but areas where al Qaeda is not present, such as Columbia, the Caspian region, and most recently, Western Africa.) These far reaching deployments are not about "securing the flow of oil" - but mor likely attempts to controling the flow of oil. Why? Peak Oil of course.

If you read Imperial Hubris, you will lilkely gain a different perspective on his motives...
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Re: Confession of fears for myself here in DC

Unread postby sklump » Thu 11 Aug 2005, 12:07:45

My money's on some All-American place close to DC but not DC itself. Virginia or Carolina, say. The networks would eat that story up and come all over the cameras.

Look for the highest coverage of US flags and then get your arse outta there.
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Re: Confession of fears for myself here in DC

Unread postby Doly » Thu 11 Aug 2005, 12:41:28

I imagine that the White House is as heavily protected as anything can be. That said, I don't know if that entirely excludes the possibility of it being nuked. I don't think that nukes are that easy to defend from.
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Unread postby BabyPeanut » Thu 11 Aug 2005, 13:13:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LadyRuby', 'F')orget about terrorists. Did you know that in D.C. you use petroleum for 100% of your electricity? I'd be more afraid of your electric bill than terrorists.

Total BS. This place uses coal.
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Re: Confession of fears for myself here in DC

Unread postby T4chibanaUkyo » Sat 13 Aug 2005, 00:22:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sklump', 'M')y money's on some All-American place close to DC but not DC itself. Virginia or Carolina, say. The networks would eat that story up and come all over the cameras.


Yep, what was that story about nuclear attack "practice drills" off the shore of South Carolina? a 10kt nuke will be carried by a boat, to the shore. 10kt, that's not a bad sized nuke.....now a 4MT nuke.......greatest firework ever.
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Re: Confession of fears for myself here in DC

Unread postby EnemyCombatant » Sat 13 Aug 2005, 00:57:03

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 15_pf.html

In a rare move, the Army relieved a four-star general of his command amid allegations that he had an extramarital affair with a civilian, Army officials said yesterday.

Gen. Kevin P. Byrnes, 55, led the Army's Training and Doctrine Command at Fort Monroe, Va., where he supervised the recruitment and academic programs at 33 Army schools, from basic training to the war colleges. Byrnes, who several military sources said had a previously unblemished record, was set to retire in November after 36 years of service.


http://www.northcom.mil/index.cfm?fusea ... 34AFE33114

FORT MONROE, Va. -- Here’s the scenario…A seafaring vessel transporting a 10-kiloton nuclear warhead makes its way into a port off the coast of Charleston, S.C. Terrorists aboard the ship attempt to smuggle the warhead off the ship to detonate it. Is this really a possibility?

Joint Task Force Civil Support (JTF-CS) here is planning its next exercise on the premise that this crisis is indeed plausible.

Sudden Response 05 will take place this August on Fort Monroe and will be carried out as an internal command post exercise. The exercise is intended to train the JTF-CS staff to plan and execute Consequence Management operations in support of Federal Emergency Management Agency Region IV’s response to a nuclear detonation.


:think:
Now why didn't I take the blue pill.
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An embarassing confession.

Unread postby Wednesday » Fri 13 Apr 2007, 16:48:39

I am afraid of my pressure cooker. I'm also afraid of lye but thats another topic.

I would like to try a technique for canning that does not involve a pressure cooker. Anyone with experience have some advice?
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Re: An embarassing confession.

Unread postby killJOY » Fri 13 Apr 2007, 17:02:21

Wednesday, unless you learn to ferment, you won't be able to preserve low-acid foods without a pressure canner (unless you freeze).

Some people do low-acid foods via the "open kettle" method, but I wouldn't recommend it.

As long as the sucker is intact, you can't go wrong with a pressure canner. I've been using my fifty-year-old canner for twenty years!
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Re: An embarassing confession.

Unread postby Merlin » Fri 13 Apr 2007, 17:03:09

Personally, I find the Boiling Water Canner, filled with many gallons of boiling hot water and perched precariously on the gas burner, to be much more threatening/frightening than the pressure canner. I have nightmare visions of the pain and suffering that might ensue should the Boiling Water Canner ever spill off the stove while I'm loading or unloading it -- a far more likely outcome than the pressure cooker exploding.

Face your fear and monitor the process carefully. If you have children, make sure they're out of the house and not a distraction while you're working.
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Re: An embarassing confession.

Unread postby Merlin » Fri 13 Apr 2007, 17:05:20

P.S. If all else fails, purchase or build a dehydrator and learn to enjoy re-hydrated foods that you store dry -- much less frightening.
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Re: An embarassing confession.

Unread postby killJOY » Fri 13 Apr 2007, 17:36:21

I've done it both on a woodstove/coalstove and on a heating element. The electric coil is much more dangerous, though it heats up faster. It's more difficult to get the canner to temp. on the coalstove, but once it's there it's easy to manage.

My canner takes 7 quart jars. Two quarts of water go into the canner with the hot jars. You put the lid on and let the steam "blow off" for ten minutes (sometimes it takes awhile to get the steam to start blowing off on the woodstove. With the electric stove, you have to stand by, or make sure it's on a low setting). Then the weight goes on, and when the needle on the gage gets up to 10 psi, I turn the heat way down (number 2 on the electric, or I just slide the canner to the side off the woodstove). I always have a book or something with me so I can monitor the canner while it processes. Sometimes you have to reduce the heat if the needle gets up toward 12, or you have to raise it if it falls below ten. With experience, you get the feel of it and you can keep the needle pegged for a long time (typical processing time is usually about 45 min. but it depends on the food.)

Can't tell you how much I love going into the cellar and opening up a jar of home-canned beef stew in a pinch!
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