[Bas]

Listening to the signals coming from Matthew Simmons and having read the threads on the Saudi decline on the oildrum, I've come to the belief that in fact world oil production peaked last year. The fact that much of the world is already in decline and that the declines in Cantarell and the North Sea alone will not be offset by new production coming on-line this year makes the case for 2006 as the peak year stronger. Also (for the few who aren't aware of it) OPEC has been producing flat out for a couple of years now, so we can't expect anything extra coming from that direction.

[sjn]

No. Peak Oil was in 2005. 2006 was likely peak liquids. Time will tell. Peak liquids is a joke anyway since increased low/negative EROEI liquids in place of oil will only put further pressure on the remaining oil (and NG). This year will likely be the first year local spot shortages show up in 1st world nations.

[Bas]

As far as I know the total crude production in 2006 was a little higher than in 2005; worldoil.com

But ok, we can argue long or short about what really makes up crude production but just let's go with the generally accepted number of 84-85 mb/d

[killJOY]

I'm pretty sure the peak of crude&condensate was May 05. Check out Deffeyes' page for more:

Hubbert Peak

[Bas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', 'I')'m pretty sure the peak of crude&condensate was May 05. Check out Deffeyes' page for more:

Hubbert Peak

[dhfenton]

I think its very hard to make a case for peak production at any point to date when demand has been adequately met at what are still fairly reasonable prices being maintained on the world market. The fact that someone didn't produce any specific level of oil when more production would have caused a drop in the price per barrel is not indicative of peak oil. The peak will only be evident when increased demand will not be met by ramped up production. This is when we enter the plateau of production that will exist for a while before the production begins to decline. At that point we will begin to enter an upward spiral of price increases. Producers of oil are not stupid, they know they have a finite supply of easily extractable oil, and they are not going to blow their future revenue stream by over producing now. The only effect of that would be lower prices for thier commodity. They will preserve their commodity as much as practical, and wait to get higher revenues later. I think the Suadis in particular have learned the lesson of over producing a well, and they are trying to let those wells recover as much as possible. I know the "Peak" is like Christmas to some folks, and its just got to get here TODAY; but I really don't think we've seen any real evidence of a peak yet.

[Bas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')hey know they have a finite supply of easily extractable oil, and they are not going to blow their future revenue stream by over producing now.

[Bas]

this poll is really neck and neck so far, still 2006 seems to lead.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', 'I')'m pretty sure the peak of crude&condensate was May 05. Check out Deffeyes' page for more:

Hubbert Peak

[MD]

Especially given the GAO report.

Surely I'm not the only one who considers this a simple warning shot for what we are going to begin to experience this summer?

Is there not precedent for policy shift warnings to be tested/softly-introduced through non-primary agencies?

Confirmations for 2006 peak continue to dribble in.

Refutations grow weaker by the day.

[Coolman]

It is just one of those things were we will just have to wait and see.

But, I do think the possibility of a 2006 peak is becoming more likely. We have been extraction pretty much flat since mid 2004 even in the face of huge demand and prices.

And now the Sudia Arabian King wants Bush out of Iraq.....hmmmm....

Russia should be hitting their second peak soon too.

[billp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his mostly reminds me of 1973 (though I wasn't even born yet back then)

[Bas]

1973 was ofcourse a good example of a supply shock; no such thing going on yet, just a geeentle curve..

Also 2006 seems to be winning from all the other years in history...

[Pixie]

You know, month to month production is highly variable. Considering that most of OPEC is a black box and we can't see WHY they do the things they do, month to month variation should be treated as random noise with something of an annual cycle--like the weather.

If ANNUAL production goes down in 2007 compared to 2006, I will be inclined to feel like we have some real evidence that we are past peak oil/liquids/oil+condensates/whatever.

Alternatively, if Stuart Staniford (the Oil Drum) or someone else with access to EIS/IEA data could do a graph of 12-month running averages, that would take most of the random noise out of the signal.

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')specially given the GAO report.

[Bas]

looks like 2/3rds for 2006...

[billp]

Coal may have problems too.

And so may Brzezinski and Carter.

We are on the move to possibly peaceful settlement.

Let's all hope.

[Bas]

bumb and vote some more

[joewp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dhfenton', 'I') think its very hard to make a case for peak production at any point to date when demand has been adequately met at what are still fairly reasonable prices being maintained on the world market.

[DantesPeak]

Light sweet oil peaked in 2005 (which I have been saying, oh, since the end of 2005). C & C in 2007 may possibly exceed 2006 by a very small amount. I would guess that C & C 2007 for the first quarter is slightly ahead of the comparable quarter a year ago. I think the second quarter also may be slightly ahead. The third quarter is where 2007 we will fall behind 2006, and the fourth quarter looks now to be about the same as 2006.

So in sum, C & C will peak around mid-2007 (on a quartely basis compared to the prior year), most likely forever – although I can't say if total C & C in 2007 will exceed 2006 or not. It will be close.

Meanwhile, since demand as far as I can tell is rising 2 million bpd, supply and demand will get further and further out of balance. Keep in mind that supply and demand can stay out of balance for a while as inventories are run down. When inventories can't be run down any more, that's when the oil bidding war really begins.