[Concerned]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', '
')
1. I've never seen a written communication begin with the word "however". So that's a first for me. Thanks.
.

[nth]

I am surprised how many people trust HL blindly.

[Newsseeker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')owever, one thing is critical to keep in mind. If you are going to use the model for forecasting, the model must be tested. Testing the model is called “validation”, or sometimes “back-casting.” This involves feeding the model real data, and observing how well the predictions match up with the observations. If the predictions match up on a consistent basis, and any large variations are explainable, you have the makings of a predictive model. If you have not validated your model, or if you have attempted to validate it and found that the predictions were inconsistent, the model should be used with caution (if at all). In this essay I have done some back-casts on the Hubbert Linearization (HL) model and attempted to use it to make predictions using historical data.
....http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2357#more

This article/essay brings up the problems associated with trying to use HL techniques for forecasting. It is a very good essay and brought up a lot of points that I had previously not known about. Thoughts??

[Newsseeker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', 'H')owever I don't have an issue with it.

However I just thought I'd point it out, however because I thought it was interesting.

However Nth, pay attention!!

[nth]

However I read Gideon's comment, I was just pointing out that the article did not begin with however.

However, you read my comment to mean I have an issue with it, which is not my intention.

[Newsseeker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ased on the case studies I have carried out – both hypothetical and real – I conclude that the Hubbert Linearization technique does not have the capability of predicting a production peak in real time. Furthermore, I believe it is the responsibility of those who are using this technique as a basis of their peak predictions to validate the model. Each case I have investigated showed a failure of the HL technique and an incorrect prediction. This was true for Texas, it was true for the idealized cases, and we are now seeing evolution in the HL for Saudi Arabia. But it is not my responsibility to investigate every possible variation of when the HL “might” work. I could spend the rest of my life evaluating case after case. I think it is a much more reasonable request to ask proponents to provide details on some cases in which it did work - or would have worked – to predict a peak in something resembling real time.

[killJOY]

The case for peak oil does not rest on so-called Hubbert Linearization.

This is your classic straw man argument. HL is a recent development.

there is much more convincing evidence.

Oil discoveries peaked in the 1960s. Extraction necessarily follows discovery.

65% of all oil producing regions are in confirmed decline.

13 (and maybe even a full 14) of the top super giant fields in the world are in confirmed decline.

Since 1982, discovery has not kept pace with extraction. The annual discovery of +500 mmb fields has dropped off to nearly nothing.

Hubbert originally predicted that world oil would peak in 1995. When the embargos of the 70s happened, and realizing that oil was staying in the ground, he amended his prediction to "about ten years later."

There is little to no spare capacity. In 2005, the Saudis announced they were producing flat out. The head of OPEC at the time said "There is no more oil."

The frontiers of oil extraction now consist of ultra-deep water, tar sands scrubbing, and extra-heavy Orinoco. In short, we are rolling our pennies.

Finally, if your criticisms of "Hubbert" linearization mean you don't think peak is here, then by all means, don't prepare for it.

It's that simple.


P.S. If you argue that "this is not my view but the view in the article," then you fail the assignment for not quoting correctly. This is plagiarism, whether you realize it or not.

[aldente]

Accuracte conclusion. Once we are airborn the curve does not at all reflect an anticipated Hubbert 'bell' but rather a Hubbert cliff.

[Newsseeker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', '
')
P.S. If you argue that "this is not my view but the view in the article," then you fail the assignment for not quoting correctly. This is plagiarism, whether you realize it or not.

[killJOY]

I agree with you, but this whole issue has been a distracting tempest in a tea kettle.

[ResultsNotTypical]

I'd love to have hair like this when I'm his age!


And look at his stylin' goatee...he was 50 years ahead of his time in not only peak oil, but style!


I mean, just look at him compared to those other squares in this photo:

[Plantagenet]

Dr. Hubbert was a very smart guy.

When I was in grad school Hubbert's prediction of an oil peak was derided as "Hubbert's pimple," but M. King Hubbert is going to get the last laugh on this one.

[Daculling]

Agreed, good looking dude.

But whats that in the caption?

All-American Technological Congress in Chicago. Communists, by action taken yesterday, are barred.

There were a bunch of communist geologists threatening the US?

[AlCzervik]

Who knew that Vanilla Ice was Dr. Hubbert's love child?

[Daculling]

He was going grey prematurely but not losing his hair. I see a pattern here...

[NEOPO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daculling', 'H')e was going grey prematurely but not losing his hair. I see a pattern here...

[Ebyss]

He was hot alright - that pic at the bottom? Yowsa.

[I_Like_Plants]

Ha his hair's like my dad's.

Hubbert was a Technocrat, look up the Technocracy party - it's where our slang word Technocrat comes from. Right-wingers considered them Communists.

[Plantagenet]

Kirilenko.

Utah.

NBA playoffs.

[Newsseeker]

Thank you. I never knew I had homosexual tendencies until I saw that photo. Be still my little heart. Be still.