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THE Subprime Situation Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Unread postby I_Like_Plants » Thu 22 Mar 2007, 16:48:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', ' ')Canadians are in just as much debt, but we don't have the same sub-prime loan industry and we have universal medical coverage, so we don't get hit with medical surprises, to the same degree.


My accountaint says it's only a matter of time before some health thing comes up and wipes me out. High stress makes this much more likely. He's seen it time after time after time. This is why I'm trying to work out some "no matter what" skills to survive on, and may just walk away from the sinking boat I'm in and let my creditors figure out how to collect from me lol.
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Unread postby smiley » Thu 22 Mar 2007, 16:52:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') was recently told by someone on this board here, that the above is a myth, and Americans are actually in good financial shape, if they would just realign their priorities.....


US

Debt: 50 trillion (2006 figure)
Population: 300 million,

Dept per capita: $165.000
Interest annually per capita (5% rate): $8.500
Median per capita income: $22.000 (1999 figure)

I would say a bit more than realigning is in order.
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 22 Mar 2007, 16:55:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smiley', 'I') would say a bit more than realigning is in order.


Yes, well, I would tend to agree, based on the statistics I've seen.
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Unread postby threadbear » Thu 22 Mar 2007, 16:57:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('I_Like_Plants', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', ' ')Canadians are in just as much debt, but we don't have the same sub-prime loan industry and we have universal medical coverage, so we don't get hit with medical surprises, to the same degree.


My accountaint says it's only a matter of time before some health thing comes up and wipes me out. High stress makes this much more likely. He's seen it time after time after time. This is why I'm trying to work out some "no matter what" skills to survive on, and may just walk away from the sinking boat I'm in and let my creditors figure out how to collect from me lol.


Sorry to hear that, Plants. Have you considered emigrating out of US to a place with a universal plan?
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Unread postby I_Like_Plants » Thu 22 Mar 2007, 16:58:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smiley', '
')US

Debt: 50 trillion (2006 figure)
Population: 300 million,

Dept per capita: $165.000
Interest annually per capita (5% rate): $8.500
Median per capita income: $22.000 (1999 figure)

I would say a bit more than realigning is in order.


Most people are paying 15 or 20% interest now, the median is probably something like 20%. It's changed a lot since 1999. Per capita income has probably gone up to $30k, but that's a skewing caused by increased income for the top quintile, for the other 4/5ths, income has been about level or slightly decreasing.

Buying a house, even on a no-down loan, causes tons more spending, on credit cards naturally. I've talked to a lot of people about this, buying a house in the US always causes a huge burst of credit buying. The only exception I know of is one old guy from Wisconsin, when he bought his house in Los Angeles, he slept in a sleeping bag on the floor and gradually amassed furniture as he could afford it.
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Unread postby Eli » Thu 22 Mar 2007, 16:59:38

Plants if you are in that deep that may be a good idea.

If you are really that close to the edge. What if you liquidated everything that you possibly could and transfered it into cash and or silver?

Pick up and move no forwarding address no nothing just leave. Like you said what are the creditors going to do?

Get on a plane go to Hawaii and drop off the radar as best as you possibly can. Do like the asshole bankers do never ever show any assets on paper stay as liquid as you can.

What do you think?

This should probably be another thread.

How to handle the coming collapse if you have debt?
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Unread postby smiley » Thu 22 Mar 2007, 17:08:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ost people are paying 15 or 20% interest now, the median is probably something like 20%. It's changed a lot since 1999. Per capita income has probably gone up to $30k, but that's a skewing caused by increased income for the top quintile, for the other 4/5ths, income has been about level or slightly decreasing.


The 50 trillion figure is for all forms of debt including governmental debt. Much of it therefore has a low interest rate. I also don't know how reliable the grandfathers report figure is, but it certainly is a lot of money.

The average income is $45.000 in the US. However that figure is skewed by people like Bill Gates. Therefore I looked for the median income. Median is when you line up all incomes from high to low and take the central value. It will be much closer to reality.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')orry to hear that, Plants. Have you considered emigrating out of US to a place with a universal plan?


Does such a place exist?

IMO every country overspends. Whether it is the US, Canada, Latvia, or Tonga. Perhaps the closed to stability would be Switzerland, but even they have inflation.

The trick is not to overspend so much that it get's noticed. Because then you become the fall guy.

That is as far as the masterplan goes.
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Unread postby threadbear » Thu 22 Mar 2007, 17:11:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'P')lants if you are in that deep that may be a good idea.

If you are really that close to the edge. What if you liquidated everything that you possibly could and transfered it into cash and or silver?

Pick up and move no forwarding address no nothing just leave. Like you said what are the creditors going to do?

Get on a plane go to Hawaii and drop off the radar as best as you possibly can. Do like the asshole bankers do never ever show any assets on paper stay as liquid as you can.

What do you think?

This should probably be another thread.

How to handle the coming collapse if you have debt?


Yep, new thread. Get going!
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Unread postby Eli » Thu 22 Mar 2007, 17:18:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'P')lants if you are in that deep that may be a good idea.

If you are really that close to the edge. What if you liquidated everything that you possibly could and transfered it into cash and or silver?

Pick up and move no forwarding address no nothing just leave. Like you said what are the creditors going to do?

Get on a plane go to Hawaii and drop off the radar as best as you possibly can. Do like the asshole bankers do never ever show any assets on paper stay as liquid as you can.

What do you think?

This should probably be another thread.

How to handle the coming collapse if you have debt?


Yep, new thread. Get going!


I am on it. Posting to see my name again.
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Unread postby I_Like_Plants » Thu 22 Mar 2007, 22:27:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '
')Sorry to hear that, Plants. Have you considered emigrating out of US to a place with a universal plan?


If I had the million bucks I'd need to emigrate, I'd not need the universal health care now would I? And, I'd already be gone! :o
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Unread postby I_Like_Plants » Thu 22 Mar 2007, 22:47:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', ' ')What if you liquidated everything that you possibly could and transfered it into cash and or silver?

Pick up and move no forwarding address no nothing just leave. Like you said what are the creditors going to do?

Get on a plane go to Hawaii and drop off the radar as best as you possibly can. Do like the asshole bankers do never ever show any assets on paper stay as liquid as you can.


I can't disappear completely, but I can live pretty low on the totem pole once out of the Bay Area. Everything I could possibly liquidate could bring me a few thousand dollars, maybe. If I move back to HI and live on basically minimum wage, doing crafts or playing music or something, I won't have enough assets or income to sieze. I have family and much more of a network there than I'll ever have on the mainland, it's weird how seperated everyone on the mainland is - guess it's small town, which Hawaii basically is, vs. the huge CorpGovState that all but small pockets of the mainland have become. I still have friends in HI who have helped me, and would again. I never realized how amazing that is.

HI may be the best place to avoid the prison-for-profit system the main US has going, it doesn't make sense to put a person in prison for debt because then they can NEVER pay for it, and probably won't have rich relatives to pay it off and bail 'em out, but it does make sense to put 'em in prison for debt if they're a valuable labor-slave which is the way the US is going.

This is also why I'm interesting in an easily transportable skill like art or music - frankly art's the most transportable of all, since you can draw or paint with almost anything. Art may also allow me to keep up a decent income while weaning off of Ebay, and allow me to play things fair and square, just live frugally and pay off debt.

What I'm finding with Ebay, and this applies to a lot of types of small biz, is I HAVE to have a car, I HAVE to have a bigger place than otherwise to store the shit, and while an average of $200 or so a day sounds good, Ebay, the post office, the ppl I buy shit from, and the aforementioned car and apartment expenses take huge chunks out of that. If I could actually get good at quick-draw portraits or something and make that kind of money, without all those expenses, and without all the stress I'm under, I could play it all streight and gladly.

But, as the situation is for me here and now, it's pretty scary.
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Unread postby Art_Vandelai » Thu 22 Mar 2007, 22:57:36

Suburban blight...coming to a suburb near you.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/23/us/23 ... yt&emc=rss
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Unread postby Eli » Thu 22 Mar 2007, 23:16:49

Ok you got to do something about that.


I think you need to think about doing this.

Personally if there is anyplace in the world I would want to be broke it would be Hawaii.

What about farming or fishing as a skill? Becoming an excellent gardener in Hi could also be a good way to go. And waiting until you have developed a skill seems like a mistake. We don't know what the future will hold maybe you will discover a new skill that you have when you get home.

But at any rate you have family there and people do tend to look out for each other. In many areas it is like a small town, as you said and small tight community has a very good chance po. The most important thing we all will need is a support network of friends and family.

It does not sound like you have all that much to lose you are working very hard at ebay. Wouldn't it be more relaxing if you just rode your bike down to the beach and just fished all day and then sold the extras along the road?

There you have people who care for you and love you, that and a little food in your belly is all you need, it is all any of us need really.

Just walk away and leave all this stuff behind.

You will be debt free the moment you walk out the door.
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Unread postby threadbear » Fri 23 Mar 2007, 00:10:17

Plants, How old are you, if you don't mind me asking. By your other posts, I think you are in your forties? This has some bearing on preparing for the future, too.
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Unread postby I_Like_Plants » Fri 23 Mar 2007, 02:47:11

Yep right smack in the middle of my 40s. If I were in my 20s it would change things a lot, I could emigrate, for instance.
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Unread postby master_rb » Fri 23 Mar 2007, 19:50:04

I_Like_Plants

my advice is probabaly useless but i'll try anyway, if i were you i would try to move to canada, that's what people did where the draft came for vietnam and few other times, after visiting canada last year i wouldn't have a problem living there

the problem with this advice is that i have no idea how to get a permit to stay there and how are laws between U.S. and canada, could they bring anybody back for money? i have no idea

just think about it man, it's almost like different state (i hope nobody gets it wrong)

i would check with a lawer and see how it looks, i hope you will get yourslef out of this mess, europe is too far and too different to move but try canada
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Unread postby threadbear » Fri 23 Mar 2007, 20:46:46

Plants, What are your skills, again? Canada might be a good place for you, but I would go to Hawaii first, and then apply from there. Best idea if you want to move to Canada is to marry a Canadian. Yeah, that's the ticket. Then it's easy, and you're not considered too old until your mid 50's.
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Unread postby I_Like_Plants » Fri 23 Mar 2007, 23:32:47

If I move back to HI, I'll be a professional car-less street musician, should do wonders for my looks, I will lose weight and have that Gypsy violin thing going with the increased sun lol.

Dammit though, paid some bills today and worked some numbers, and damned if the debt isn't going down. And I was able to make a payment to my accountant, and paid a bill that's not due until mid-April instead of waiting until the last moment.

The changes* I have made may actually pull my fat out of the fire which is OK with me, it's trying and trying and not getting anywhere that drives me up the wall. If the changes keep on working up until my apartment lease is up and I'm really getting ahead, I guess I'll keep on plugging away here.

*Changes:
1 - Zero spending on Ham Radio from now on
2 - no more alcohol except very special occasions
3 - no more buying at the local auctions, always lose my shirt
4 - Have a hobby that can at least potentially pay for itself (art, music)
5 - Keep on food budget
7 - No more test equipment buying, keep a simple lab
8 - Don't use credit cards no matter what
9 - Always pay at least a bit more than the min. on c. cards
10 - Always keep in mind that slow and steady wins the race.
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Unread postby Eli » Mon 26 Mar 2007, 13:39:54

Well housing seems like it is turning around now look at this link.



link


ha ha just kidding it is headed for the crapper.
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Mon 26 Mar 2007, 13:49:30

From the article:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')he supply of unsold homes climbed to the highest in 16 years.


From record home starts to record inventory in just a few short months' time.

8O
"It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."

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