[mistel]

Twilight

The problem in the US and Canada is that we have suburbia which is spread out over huge tracts of land that was all designed around the car. People have to drive. Mass transit is very difficult in these areas of such low density.

I didn't really see it until I went to Florida, after I had started reading about Peak Oil. I think that you don't really notice it in your own neighbourhood. I remember driving through neighbourhoods talking with my wife saying " look at this place, how could you get any where without a car?" I rarely saw bus stops. Unless you level all of suburbia, there is going to have to be some sort of personal transportation. I imagine the problem is not as great in the UK?

Now if you will excuse me, I am going to the RV show. I am looking for a diesel RV that I can run on waste vegetable oil so I can show my kids North America while I still have a chance.

Peter

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')everal analyses by EPRI or the DOE estimate the energy demand of plug-in hybrids, even at 50% market penetration, at between 4-7% of total US electricity demand.

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')everal analyses by EPRI or the DOE estimate the energy demand of plug-in hybrids, even at 50% market penetration, at between 4-7% of total US electricity demand.

[I_Like_Plants]

Well, instead of talking about thin Japanese and fat Americans, let me put this into terms fat Americans can understand: the batteries weigh a ton. So, if you take a Prius with a carrying capacity of 850 lbs, and add 500 lbs of batteries, you're left with 350 lbs. Add a 200-250lb driver (this is America!) and you can't carry another adult passenger (most American kids are 150 lbs by the time they're entering high school) or much in the way of stuff, which is the only justification for having a car instead of a bicycle or scooter.

[Terrapin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('I_Like_Plants', 'W')ell, instead of talking about thin Japanese and fat Americans, let me put this into terms fat Americans can understand: the batteries weigh a ton. So, if you take a Prius with a carrying capacity of 850 lbs, and add 500 lbs of batteries, you're left with 350 lbs. Add a 200-250lb driver (this is America!) and you can't carry another adult passenger (most American kids are 150 lbs by the time they're entering high school) or much in the way of stuff, which is the only justification for having a car instead of a bicycle or scooter.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Terrapin', 'T')he point that the earlier poster made was that with off-peak charging the existing capacity is not as deficient as some make it out to be.

[Terrapin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Terrapin', 'T')he point that the earlier poster made was that with off-peak charging the existing capacity is not as deficient as some make it out to be.

[sicophiliac]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sicophiliac', 'O')nly thing thats holding them back is the battery technology

[gg3]

Optimal solutions in most cases are highly syntropic (negentropic; low entropy). The more probable outcomes are lower-syntropy, i.e. higher-entropy, thus more painful for more people.

But not to worry, we're headed for a multi-gigadeath dieoff this century anyway.

---

It would appear the UK is a bit screwed in terms of generating capacity, and the US is a bit screwed in terms of transmission capacity. Both of course can be built, with wind and nuclear and solar and some degree of decentralization.

---

The "Man's Car" is going to turn out to be a horse. Preferably a manly stud of a stallion, with higher prices for horses with larger ...male attributes.

---

Eventually we'll have to deal with energy efficiency of electric cars, perhaps expressed in miles per kilowatt-hour (m/KWH or mpk to parallel the present usage "mpg"). (And/or switch to telecommuting; our friends here from Australia & NZ will appreciate this way of putting it: "From mpg to the PMG":-)

Anyway, in the long term, the bubble cars win.

---

As for personal mobility, first we have to do away with sprawl. Anyone here live in Manhattan? How many people there insist on personal automobiles, eh? Few. A good number don't even have driver's licenses because they don't need them.

In Manhattan, speaking from experience of many a visit there (and hey I was also born there), everyone walks, takes the bus, takes the subways. If you need to go from door to door with a load of stuff you take a taxi. In most neighborhoods you need only walk half a block to the corner to catch a bus or taxi, or another block or two for the subway. Thus walking is actually a viable method of transport there. And a folding bike, for example the new Sinclair A-Bike with the tiny wheels, would work perfectly in that kind of environment.

In New York the grocery is usually right on the corner, and within a short walk of a few blocks there is usually every other store you need.

The problem with Manhattan, aside from the nanny-state local government that has banned smoking in tobacco shops and "bad" fats from restaurant menus (I dread to think what's happened to Mimi's Pizza on Lex, but here in Berkeley we have Arinell's which is every bit as good), is the roof shortage. Roofs are fiendishly expensive, and affordable ones (i.e. middle-class, as in cops & firefighters, shopkeepers & secretaries, etc.) are in the kind of condition (or location) that is reminescent of bad science fiction.

But there is a lesson here, which is that sustainable design is also highly in demand: build cities & towns such that people can walk everywhere, and public transport is ubiquitous, and lo & behold you will get sustainable outcomes and far less need (or even desire) for cars.

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Terrapin', 'A')s to your previous post, people do not usually run their heating and air conditioning simultaneously, and it will be a helluva long time before we ever reach 75% market share of “real men’s electric cars”, so we have some time to upgrade the infrastructure. By that time there will no doubt be less cars being driven less. The point that the earlier poster made was that with off-peak charging the existing capacity is not as deficient as some make it out to be. The problem of where all the fuel will come from to generate the power still exists however.

[Terrapin]

Twilight, I agree mass ownership of electric cars is fraught with problems, However, we are talking about plug in hybrids here (or at least I thought we were maybe I missed where the topic changed) - their cruising range and charge are not as great as true electrics. They will also still run even if they get no charge.

Where I live “off peak” is considered to be anything other than 12-6pm weekdays. Granted sometimes the California Independent System Operators request that people voluntarily hold off power use in the evenings on hot nights, but (thus far) this has been a rare event. This leaves normally leaves quite a bit of charging time.

I realize that not everyone will abide by the request to charge only off-peak. If this truly becomes an issue I could see the mandating of chips that would only allow hybrids to be charged off-peak.

Of coarse solar electricity is the logical answer to this dilemma. Its peak power generation coincides roughly with peak demand. It decentralizes power generation therefore helping to relieve long distance transmission bottlenecks. It may not be the answer for NYC but it has great potential many other places like Texas.

I think we can all agree that things will change in the future. People will have to get used to whatever the requirements are. I may not be as pessimistic as Monte and some others here but I agree that the days of cheap gasoline and cheap power in general are limited. People will not like it but they will eventually adapt to driving less and more efficiently (possibly on the road to eventually not driving at all).

It seems unfortunate to me that our grid needs to be designed to handle peak loads that only happen for a few hours on a few days per year. It seems to me that at least to some extent things that tends to even out the load (like encouraging off peak use) actually helps improve efficiency.

Maybe people shouldn’t be moving to so many places where so much air conditioning is required?

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Terrapin', 'T')wilight, I agree mass ownership of electric cars is fraught with problems, However, we are talking about plug in hybrids here (or at least I thought we were maybe I missed where the topic changed) - their cruising range and charge are not as great as true electrics. They will also still run even if they get no charge.

[Terrapin]

All more or less true. I will coment on this however:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'A') way of charging electric cars off-grid would simplify the engineering problem.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Terrapin', 'I') may not be as pessimistic as Monte and some others here but I agree that the days of cheap gasoline and cheap power in general are limited. People will not like it but they will eventually adapt to driving less and more efficiently (possibly on the road to eventually not driving at all).

[Terrapin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Terrapin', 'I') may not be as pessimistic as Monte and some others here but I agree that the days of cheap gasoline and cheap power in general are limited. People will not like it but they will eventually adapt to driving less and more efficiently (possibly on the road to eventually not driving at all).

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Terrapin', 'T')he more time we buy the easier the transition will be.

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Terrapin', 'I') am not familiar with what you refer to here. Are you saying that there is a problem to the grid with the introduction of modified sine waves from an inverter?

[Terrapin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Terrapin', 'T')he more time we buy the easier the transition will be.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Terrapin', 'W')hat do you propose Tony?

[Terrapin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Terrapin', 'I') am not familiar with what you refer to here. Are you saying that there is a problem to the grid with the introduction of modified sine waves from an inverter?