[nth]

I just want to make it clear why this field is consider so big.

If you look at Cascade, Chinook, St Malo, Jack, and unannounced wells drilled in that area, they are all next to each other. In any given area, if you find successful wells all bunch right next to each other, then you correlate with 2D data, you get a lot of hope.

[AirlinePilot]

Not to knock the good news but a few large Hurricanes out there over the next few years will surely limit or delay all this oil. At some point before they get them going I am afraid it just may be too late.

Hope springs eternal.

[nth]

What good news?
I see no good news at all if you are talking about PO. All the stuff I wrote up there will produce jack as far as PO is concern. Cascade is going to produce 7kbpd! If that is good news, then you are smoking something very good.

[nth]

Ok more info on the surrounding area and Lower Tertiary play:

Jack #2 data was sold to a number of oil companies and were used to bid on GoM fields in the August Lease Sale. After the bidding, was this well announce to the public in September by Devon.

Costs of drilling is about $100m. It used to run close to $180m, but is constantly dropping. By 2009, the cost is expected to be $80m per well.

St Malo field is connected to the Das Bump(BP operator). Das Bump is unannounced, but they have struck oil and believed to be the same field as St Malo based on chemical analysis of oil and water.
BP also operates the Stones well. This unannounce well has hit oil.

Since these are unannounce information, I cannot vouch for accuracy.

Keatley Canyon has a number of dry holes: Exxon operated Hadrian and Hadrian South; Chevron operated Sardinia.

[nth]

It looks like AirlinePilot has some misconceptions about this area.

Looking at the most optimistic scenario which is based on CERA's analysis: we are looking at 800kbpd of peak production, which we will hit sometime before 2020.

If you look at the way the oil companies operate in this region, you will see they are quite conservative. They will bring fields into operation and wait for these fields to start entering decline before tying other fields into the same facilities to keep max output for several years. Otherwise, these oil fields will just enter decline and oil firms will need to write down these facility costs. To maximize margins, they have chose the former and just keep some discovered fields as latter phase developments to maintain peak production.

Due to this reasoning, CERA is only claiming 800kbpd for a region that has about 3-15B barrels of oil URR.

As for hurricanes, Petrobras has implemented technology used in iceberg regions, the cut and run method. The fpso will simply move out of the way when hurricanes approach instead of trying to withstand the hurricane like Mars and Thunderhorse are designed to do. This method has proven effective against icebergs and will only result in days of downtime instead of months like Mars and Thunderhorse.

Please do note that Thunderhorse delay is divided into separate incident: one is due to hurricane and the other is due to engineering issue. They are unrelated. Even if no hurricane, they would have survey the manifolds and discover the engineering issue before going into production.

[Baldwin]

Click here

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Norwegian oil giant, reported that they had found 3 billion to 15 billion barrels in several fields 175 miles offshore, 30,000 feet below the gulf’s surface, among formations of rock and salt hundreds of feet thick

[MonteQuest]

This is old, old news. September 6, 2006

There is an 8 page thread already on it here:

http://peakoil.com/fortopic23435.html

Some mod should delete this or merge it with that existing thread.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '
')As for hurricanes, Petrobras has implemented technology used in iceberg regions, the cut and run method. The fpso will simply move out of the way when hurricanes approach instead of trying to withstand the hurricane like Mars and Thunderhorse are designed to do. This method has proven effective against icebergs and will only result in days of downtime instead of months like Mars and Thunderhorse.

[crossthread]

related..............

http://www.technologyreview.com/Energy/17060/page1/

[nth]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '
')
I am not familiar with the Petrobras technology, or how deep they are drilling. Are you saying that technology is viable for deep water drilling?

[nth]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mekrob', 'I')t just occurred to me: the 3-15 bln barrel figure, whose figure is that: Chevron's, or oil 'analysts'? In the press releases, Chevron only mentions the well being drilled and in Sept 04, that the field was discovered. They never make any mention as to the size of the field or the potential it could hold. The news articles always mention the 3-15 bln figure and says that that number is from Chevron and company, but it never says who in the company reported that, thus making it seem as though it's from a press release. So where did that figure originate?

[nth]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baldwin', '
')

The gulf of mexico will save us....for two years. Pardon me whilst I laugh at the futile hope.

[joewp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '
')I feel this is pointless, but many experts still hold fast to the belief that many small fields are yet to be discovered. *shakes head*

[nth]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '
')
It's called desperate, flailing hope, nth. They can't bare to see the end of oil, so they hold out hope we can find and exploit these small, hard to get at fields. What else can they do?

[Twilight]

Oceans: Holes in the Bottom of the Sea

The above-named article is in the current issue of United States Naval Institute: Proceedings. Copyrighted obviously, you could try registering on the website to access it, but no guarantees it's available electronically.

It basically says exploration on the American mainland is finished, no more large fields will be found and the new small fields won't make up for them. The term "easy oil" is used in the context that it's gone, and the Gulf of Mexico is the last significant bit of US reserves and production, buying the country time while it comes up with alternative energy sources. In the meantime, world oil production as a whole will decline too and there will be increased competition for remaining resources.

Buying time... doesn't feel very cornucopian. But then I figure those guys are in the reality business, not talking up someone else's investments. Fairly good, balanced article. It accepts that the US peaked, that the downward trend is well-established, and that the world as a whole will peak in similar fashion.

This touches on a point often overlooked in the fossil energy debate, the question of how the concept of a world peak can be denied, if a local peak has already been identified. It is obvious to everyone already familiar with the debate, but it still surprises me to see the connection made in print, in what you could term the mainstream media. The idea that since an oil producing region came to prominence, reached maximum and declined, the rest of the world must do likewise.

This connection is important to make, but sadly it usually isn't made as clearly as it should. Everyone knows the US has to import most of its needs, few people ask what would happen if the rest of the world were to need to do the same. Instead we hear about "reserve growth" allowing oil companies to replace 100% or more of their reserves every year, thanks to ever-improving technology and recovery factors. But it didn't work out that way in the US, did it? Perhaps it bought some extra production after peak, maybe raised the downslope a little bit, but it did not materially affect the outcome, and policy has had to adapt ever sincee. Why should the world be different?

Thumbs up to this article, not so sure about the prospects for developing alternative energy solutions, not without massively curtailing demand, but it certainly sets out the background right.

[nth]

US GoM at best has 800kbpd more to produce that has not already been announced.
This is not buying much time if any at all.

[Lore]

On CNBC this morning they had some oil economist saying that the world at present is coming up 1/2 million barrels short everyday. Essentially everyone must be dipping into the reserves already.

He went on to suggest the oil market is rather calm because most investors view the world economy as slowing down and that will take care of the shortfall. However, in the next breath he says US consumption was up 1% last year with a greater increase expected this year and Asia has not slowed down at all?

He figures that OPEC in the fall will turn up the tap to make up for the tightening market later this year, essentially no problem and oil prices will float in the 60 - 65$ range.

Where is this oil going to come from if it’s not there?

I think this guy and many Wall Street types are in for a real shock this year.

[Lore]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 't')hey say one thing. they say another thing. They say whatever their advertisers want them to say to keep the consumer happy, confused, very upbeat, and always shopping shopping shopping

Financial advice is by defnition hooey. Has to be hooey. Why would those who know how to make money tell to you how to make money? That would mean less money for them to make.

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'F')inancial advice is by defnition hooey. Has to be hooey. Why would those who know how to make money tell to you how to make money? That would mean less money for them to make.