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The Last Days of the Dollar?

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: The Last Days of the Dollar?

Unread postby Revi » Tue 13 Feb 2007, 09:25:52

Time to buy something before the coupons that they are issuing here in the US of A become worthless. I just signed on a new truck. I agreed to pay it off with worthless dollars. It gets 29 mpg, so I figure that we can tote wood around even if gas goes to $10 a gallon. I may buy more silver too, but I bought at $7, so $14 seems a bit pricey. We all have to look at the catalogs and see what we want. Land is nice. Barrels of beans and rice are nice. Solar is really nice. Livestock will hold it's value. Maybe some nice walking shoes...

It looks like it's happening soon. I agree with the article in Counterpunch by Paul Craig Roberts. The world will dump dollars if we hit Iran. Scary stuff!

http://counterpunch.org/roberts02122007.html
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Re: The Last Days of the Dollar?

Unread postby threadbear » Tue 13 Feb 2007, 13:52:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'T')ime to buy something before the coupons that they are issuing here in the US of A become worthless. I just signed on a new truck. I agreed to pay it off with worthless dollars. It gets 29 mpg, so I figure that we can tote wood around even if gas goes to $10 a gallon. I may buy more silver too, but I bought at $7, so $14 seems a bit pricey. We all have to look at the catalogs and see what we want. Land is nice. Barrels of beans and rice are nice. Solar is really nice. Livestock will hold it's value. Maybe some nice walking shoes...

It looks like it's happening soon. I agree with the article in Counterpunch by Paul Craig Roberts. The world will dump dollars if we hit Iran. Scary stuff!

http://counterpunch.org/roberts02122007.html


I was just going to post that this morning, Revi. We're literally on the same page.

Here's paragraph:

If the rest of the world would simply stop purchasing US Treasuries, and instead dump their surplus dollars into the foreign exchange market, the Bush Regime would be overwhelmed with economic crisis and unable to wage war. The arrogant hubris associated with the "sole superpower" myth would burst like the bubble it is.

The collapse of the dollar would also end the US government's ability to subvert other countries by purchasing their leaders to do America's will.
http://www.counterpunch.org/roberts02122007.html

If the US commits atrocities, like dropping nukes, this could happen. China, a leading creditor, would have to be scared into it, though, as they have a lot to lose. Japan has a somewhat dependant relationship on the US, both militarily and economically, so they'd really have to get up the guts to do it. A nuclear attack could do it, and fracture Nato too.
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Re: The Last Days of the Dollar?

Unread postby Revi » Tue 13 Feb 2007, 15:00:48

Just because it's insane doesn't mean they won't do it. I worry about the plans being cooked up in Cheney's bunker. They may actually want to make the whole world economy tank so they can make us suffer. They won't do too badly in their Dr. Strangelove cave somewhere.
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Re: The Last Days of the Dollar?

Unread postby threadbear » Tue 13 Feb 2007, 15:05:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'J')ust because it's insane doesn't mean they won't do it. I worry about the plans being cooked up in Cheney's bunker. They may actually want to make the whole world economy tank so they can make us suffer. They won't do too badly in their Dr. Strangelove cave somewhere.


Yeah, they're so nuts, it might be an exercise in sado masochism, and we're in the foreplay stage. One can only hope that the orgasm they get from bombing Iran, discharges so much orgone, it kills them all.
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Re: The Last Days of the Dollar?

Unread postby evilgenius » Wed 14 Feb 2007, 16:02:43

They aren't going to bomb Iran IMO. What they are doing is making the Shia an enemy that is substantial enough for them to change sides in Iraq. They need to back the Sunnis there so that their support is support of Saudi Arabia.

If the Saudis can fold the Iraqi fields into their own production then they can overproduce enough to fight back any challenge to the petrodollar. If they can ensure dominance of the petrodollar then they can hyperinflate. That way they can keep the rich rich. Deflation (high interest rates on a permanent basis) is bad for the rich.

Pity for them that the Russian arms dealers can sway that equation with IED components and anti-aircraft missiles. Iran is only a portal. The conflict is much larger than it seems.
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Re: The Last Days of the Dollar?

Unread postby MrBill » Thu 15 Feb 2007, 04:53:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', 'T')hey aren't going to bomb Iran IMO. What they are doing is making the Shia an enemy that is substantial enough for them to change sides in Iraq. They need to back the Sunnis there so that their support is support of Saudi Arabia.

If the Saudis can fold the Iraqi fields into their own production then they can overproduce enough to fight back any challenge to the petrodollar. If they can ensure dominance of the petrodollar then they can hyperinflate. That way they can keep the rich rich. Deflation (high interest rates on a permanent basis) is bad for the rich.

Pity for them that the Russian arms dealers can sway that equation with IED components and anti-aircraft missiles. Iran is only a portal. The conflict is much larger than it seems.


Since when are high interest rates bad for the rich, which by definition means they own assets? Go back a few generations to the children and grandchildren of the US robber barons who lived in Europe on their incomes from coupon clipping. They were the idle rich living off high interest rates.

And besides high interest rates accompany inflation not deflation. I can only assume the rest of your analysis of ME politics and sectarian power struggles are equally as accurate? ; - )
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Re: The Last Days of the Dollar?

Unread postby threadbear » Thu 15 Feb 2007, 14:36:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', 'T')hey aren't going to bomb Iran IMO. What they are doing is making the Shia an enemy that is substantial enough for them to change sides in Iraq. They need to back the Sunnis there so that their support is support of Saudi Arabia.

If the Saudis can fold the Iraqi fields into their own production then they can overproduce enough to fight back any challenge to the petrodollar. If they can ensure dominance of the petrodollar then they can hyperinflate. That way they can keep the rich rich. Deflation (high interest rates on a permanent basis) is bad for the rich.

Pity for them that the Russian arms dealers can sway that equation with IED components and anti-aircraft missiles. Iran is only a portal. The conflict is much larger than it seems.


Since when are high interest rates bad for the rich, which by definition means they own assets? Go back a few generations to the children and grandchildren of the US robber barons who lived in Europe on their incomes from coupon clipping. They were the idle rich living off high interest rates.

And besides high interest rates accompany inflation not deflation. I can only assume the rest of your analysis of ME politics and sectarian power struggles are equally as accurate? ; - )


High interest rates, would be the worse thing for the wealthy, right now. Cut off the flow of credit to the average man and you have a Captitalist society where very few have access to capital. A society that encourages indebtedness to ensure a roof over one's head, and then quickly changes the rules of the game, by denying the ability to service the debt, by raising interest rates, would threaten the wealthy.
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Re: The Last Days of the Dollar?

Unread postby MrBill » Thu 15 Feb 2007, 15:00:10

threadbear wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')igh interest rates, would be the worse thing for the wealthy, right now. Cut off the flow of credit to the average man and you have a Captitalist society where very few have access to capital. A society that encourages indebtedness to ensure a roof over one's head, and then quickly changes the rules of the game, by denying the ability to service the debt, by raising interest rates, would threaten the wealthy.


every conversation it seems turns into a class struggle doesn't it? ; - )
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Re: The Last Days of the Dollar?

Unread postby threadbear » Thu 15 Feb 2007, 15:16:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 't')hreadbear wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')igh interest rates, would be the worse thing for the wealthy, right now. Cut off the flow of credit to the average man and you have a Captitalist society where very few have access to capital. A society that encourages indebtedness to ensure a roof over one's head, and then quickly changes the rules of the game, by denying the ability to service the debt, by raising interest rates, would threaten the wealthy.


every conversation it seems turns into a class struggle doesn't it? ; - )


It's important to get it right, or the uninformed start pointing their fingers at each other. It behooves us all, before the going gets too rough to identify the enemy, correctly. Otherwise you have (dumb) ass struggle, rather than the more appropriate class struggle.
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Re: The Last Days of the Dollar?

Unread postby Revi » Thu 15 Feb 2007, 21:11:45

If you aren't a member of the upper classes it's a class struggle all right. Those of us climbing up the ladders are feeling vulnerable. Particularly since the struggle isn't just the rich against the poor, but is now increasingly against the middle class. Those who are on the top don't have any idea how tough it is for most people. Whenever the economy gets a sniffle, we get pneumonia.

We actually have to use this currency called the dollar to buy things we need. We are paid in it too. It's a very scary place to be. I realized about two or three years ago that with real inflation running close to 20%, and a bank account paying 5%, we're actually losing money every year, even if we save it.

What's retirement going to look like for us? We've worked hard and played by the rules. We deserve to be put out to pasture. It doesn't look like that's going to happen. This system will get every cent we ever earned and more. I try to live one day at a time. Tomorrow will have to take care of itself.
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Re: The Last Days of the Dollar?

Unread postby MrBill » Fri 16 Feb 2007, 05:04:34

Revi, this is not directed at you, so please do not take offense. But a century ago England was a world power with colonial interests that spanned the globe. A century ago Argentina had similar levels of wealth per person as Canada or France. Where we are now a century later is the result of millions upon millions of economic decisions taken individually and collectively by ourselves, our parents and our governments on our behalf.

That may sound trite, but it is a fact. However, rough it is for you, there is five-sixths of humanity that would gladly exchange places with you. You play the hand you have been given as best as you can.

Post peak oil resource depletion is not going to be the great leveller that some people imagine, or even hope for, but will likely open up even larger divides as the middle class disappears. A few unlucky rich will no doubt lose their money and status just like a few warlords and dictators are able to elevate themselves into positions of power and wealth in the developing world. It does not make it right, but it happens more often than it doesn't in those countries.

You can rage against the injustice of it all, but my guess is that you will have to pay for your own retirement just like the rest of us.

But I will say this as well. The harder it is for the middle class to make ends meet the less concerned they will be about armchair liberal causes and social injustices 'somewhere else' that do not affect them directly. They will be concerned with bread and butter issues at home.
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Re: The Last Days of the Dollar?

Unread postby LateGreatPlanetEarth » Mon 19 Feb 2007, 19:10:02

soon dollar etf is being launched: uup, udn

NEW YORK & CHICAGO, Feb 16, 2007 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Deutsche Bank and PowerShares Capital Management LLC today announced that the PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish Fund (AMEX: UUP) and the PowerShares DB US Dollar Bearish Fund (AMEX: UDN) will list on the American Stock Exchange on February 20, 2007.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/p ... 2E76704%7D


also, the agr fund is launched. i see food commodities as one place to be, albeit, dba fund currently seem overextended.
http://www.dbfunds.db.com/dba/index.aspx
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Re: The Last Days of the Dollar?

Unread postby Denny » Tue 20 Feb 2007, 04:25:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')Since when are high interest rates bad for the rich, which by definition means they own assets? Go back a few generations to the children and grandchildren of the US robber barons who lived in Europe on their incomes from coupon clipping. They were the idle rich living off high interest rates.


I would say that in actuality, being rich and slothful is in itself bad. Bad for the idle rich and bad for society. Being rich, combined with resourcefulness and energy, is a virtue.

I have always thought it was the American dream to be competitive, to be productive and to work hard for one's family and community. To reach one's true potential, as Emerson would have described it. That "idle rich" concept belongs in Europe, it has no place in America, including Canada. Weren't the idle rich of Europe the same kind of people that the "huddled masses" fled Europe to escape?
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Re: The Last Days of the Dollar?

Unread postby MrBill » Tue 20 Feb 2007, 05:04:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Denny', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')Since when are high interest rates bad for the rich, which by definition means they own assets? Go back a few generations to the children and grandchildren of the US robber barons who lived in Europe on their incomes from coupon clipping. They were the idle rich living off high interest rates.


I would say that in actuality, being rich and slothful is in itself bad. Bad for the idle rich and bad for society. Being rich, combined with resourcefulness and energy, is a virtue.

I have always thought it was the American dream to be competitive, to be productive and to work hard for one's family and community. To reach one's true potential, as Emerson would have described it. That "idle rich" concept belongs in Europe, it has no place in America, including Canada. Weren't the idle rich of Europe the same kind of people that the "huddled masses" fled Europe to escape?


Exactly. Unlock your human capital and your financial capital. 1.3 billion Chinese cannot be wrong! ; - )
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Re: The Last Days of the Dollar?

Unread postby threadbear » Tue 20 Feb 2007, 16:25:30

This is an interesting site;

http://blog.risk.net/2007/02/
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Re: The Last Days of the Dollar?

Unread postby pogoliamo » Fri 02 Mar 2007, 11:15:39

Hi guys, so should I buy gold now or should I want a bit to get the discount price of 450$ :))
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Re: The Last Days of the Dollar?

Unread postby RdSnt » Fri 02 Mar 2007, 14:27:01

Buy silver. 8)
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Re: The Last Days of the Dollar?

Unread postby MrBill » Fri 02 Mar 2007, 14:35:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', 'B')uy silver. 8)


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ommodities
Commodities Weekly

Non-energy Commodities
We continue to expect gold prices to reach $750/toz by year end.

Metals hold up well despite Chinese equities sell-off
The relative resilience of base metals prices despite the global sell-off
reaffirms our expectations that prices have eased on a moderation, not a
collapse, in demand, and that they will recover with the business cycle later
in the year.

Gold continues to eye our $750/toz target
We expect gold prices to continue to rise, driven by a further dollar
weakening, as well as a continuation of the structural realignment in the equilibrium relationship of gold prices with the dollar.

We continue to expect aluminum timespreads to compress
A continued buildup of aluminum in exchange warehouses underscores the availability of the metal, notwithstanding continued high prices and
backwardation.


source: goldman sachs
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Re: The Last Days of the Dollar?

Unread postby pogoliamo » Fri 02 Mar 2007, 15:14:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', 'B')uy silver. 8)


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ommodities
Commodities Weekly

Non-energy Commodities
We continue to expect gold prices to reach $750/toz by year end.

Metals hold up well despite Chinese equities sell-off
The relative resilience of base metals prices despite the global sell-off
reaffirms our expectations that prices have eased on a moderation, not a
collapse, in demand, and that they will recover with the business cycle later
in the year.


source: goldman sachs


Was that article from this year or from 2006. I have the impression, this is 2006 story. Also last time I made the research GS were performing quite poorly in 2006 on commodities, and 2006 was a commodity year.

GS are trying to pull somebody's leg. Lousy job! The whole commodity advocating is absolutely pathetic! I would not give GS my old shoes...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Goldman, Merrill Almost `Junk,' Their Own Traders Say (Update2)

By Shannon D. Harrington

March 2 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Merrill Lynch & Co. and Morgan Stanley, which earned a record $24.5 billion in 2006, suddenly have become so speculative that their own traders are valuing the three biggest securities firms as barely more creditworthy than junk bonds.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=news
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Re: The Last Days of the Dollar?

Unread postby pogoliamo » Fri 02 Mar 2007, 15:22:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', 'B')uy silver. 8)


No! Absolutely against those mal-investment advices!

Before you buy any silver, ask yourself are you a bear or a bull?

Because if you are a bear and you want a secure investment, an asset which is protecting you against inflation and not a speculation high-volatility instrument, silver is the last thing you wanna buy.

What was the silver price a week ago? How much is it now? How much of a drop is that? How can a cautious and prudent investor and not a market speculator profit from it?
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