[Micki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n Europe, the extra oil tax money goes to the government. All of those high gas taxes don't vanish from the European economy. Instead, the extra revenue is used to pay for social programs, roads, etc.

In the United States, extra money spent on oil would go to...Saudi Arabia and Nigeria to be siphoned off by dictators to buy weapons of war.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NWMossBack', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I')f we use the rule of 70 (which determines doubling or halving rates), 2% decline = 35 years 5% =14 years 14.5% = 4.8 years . The trend seems to be about 8%, which is 50% of our oil production gone in less than 9 years.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NWMossBack', 'T')his thread is titled "...Terminal Decline Imminent" and I took that to mean an end to industrial civilization and population die-off. Ending civilization via warfare would absolutely require a massive nuclear exchange, don't you think? Historical precedent suggests that is not likely. Wars for resources, while obviously sucking for those in possesion of the coveted resources, does not equal the end of civilization IMO.

[NWMossBack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NWMossBack', 'T')his thread is titled "...Terminal Decline Imminent" and I took that to mean an end to industrial civilization and population die-off. Ending civilization via warfare would absolutely require a massive nuclear exchange, don't you think? Historical precedent suggests that is not likely. Wars for resources, while obviously sucking for those in possesion of the coveted resources, does not equal the end of civilization IMO.

[NWMossBack]

Regarding the hypothetical 9 year ramp up:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'P')ossible? No way.

[Micki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')I started my comments by questioning how PO can cause breakdown of civil order domestically and you wrote:

[hi-fiver]

Monte:
I have followed your posts for almost two years. I am impressed with the logic and coherency with which you present your ideas. I would say that I agree with you unequivically on the future of this World...The timing of advents may be in question, but the ultimate results are in acknowledgement. You are a "young man". What are some of your short term goals - long term goals... I am curious about what your interesting intellect may say about your own survival. Perhaps you do not plan on surviving - I proverbially doubt that. If you care, please shed some light on the dawn of my consciousness...And I don't mean this facetiouslly. Please excuse me if you covered this in some past post - Refer-me in case.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NWMossBack', ' ') How have I mis-interpreted your posts or Duncan's article? Do you think there will not be a die-off or that it will happen through factors other than violence?

[retiredguy]

A personal note regarding resource wars. My great-great grandfather killed my great-grandfather (his son) over the ownership of a pile of wood.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NWMossBack', ' ')So what timeframe does seem possible given that PO is upon us?

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NWMossBack', 'M')Q: I've been particularly impressed with the quality and depth of your research into topics you weigh in on, but "poverty breeds conflict" sounds more like an article of faith. Conflict is a given I think, but you imply that mayhem will overwhelm the states ability to maintain order. Is there any historical precedent or sociological study you can cite? I am not aware of any widespead violence during the US great depression for instance.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hi-fiver', 'M')onte:
I have followed your posts for almost two years. I am impressed with the logic and coherency with which you present your ideas. I would say that I agree with you unequivically on the future of this World...The timing of advents may be in question, but the ultimate results are in acknowledgement. You are a "young man". What are some of your short term goals - long term goals... I am curious about what your interesting intellect may say about your own survival. Perhaps you do not plan on surviving - I proverbially doubt that. If you care, please shed some light on the dawn of my consciousness...And I don't mean this facetiouslly. Please excuse me if you covered this in some past post - Refer-me in case.

[NWMossBack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'P')erhaps we have not been in sync with each other's thoughts. Read my Liebig's Law thread in the Environment Forum on why and how there will always be a die-off of any specie's population that is in overshoot.

[AirlinePilot]

Man, long term plans, thats a tough one for sure. I doubt many of us can see past about 10 years in good times let alone If you think mankind is getting ready to slip into another dark age.

I'm trying to figure out right now how I go from where I am to where we might be in 5 years and thats hard enough.

[NWMossBack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'M')any blacks were lynched in the South. "Food riots" begin to break out in parts of the U.S. Hunger marches and small riots were common throughout the nation.

[farmingengineer]

Solutions?

1. Get the world quickly onto a path of depopulation.

2. Rapidly change our diets in the first world to primarily vegetarian, and live much simpler (material and energy consumption wise).

3. Start planting on a massive scale (like on my own property) for a bio-fuels fix, and not the type that is so much in the news now. I’m talking about fruit and nut trees, Siberian pea bushes, vegetable gardens that can be fed with what is locally generated – leaves, chicken/goat and human manure.

Will any of the above happen on a huge scale anytime soon? I really doubt it! Would all of the above make a major difference on how bad things will get? Absolutely.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NWMossBack', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'M')any blacks were lynched in the South. "Food riots" begin to break out in parts of the U.S. Hunger marches and small riots were common throughout the nation.

[Jester]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NWMossBack', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'M')any blacks were lynched in the South. "Food riots" begin to break out in parts of the U.S. Hunger marches and small riots were common throughout the nation.

[eastbay]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lynching_i ... ted_States

Monte,

By 1930 very few racially motivated lynchings were occuring in the US. The chart in the above Wikipedia entry indicates that by 1930 this practice was fading. Around 150 lynchings occured nationwide over the 10 year period commonly known as the depression era compared with about 500 during the 1920's and around 750 during the 1910's.

That's about 15/ year during the 30's and includes lynchings of Whites (about 25%) and lynchings from non-southern states.

Interestingly, the horrible economic situation during the Great Depression may have contributed to FEWER lynchings rather than more.

*edit for typo.

I just thought I would offer this alternate perspective.

[Tyler_JC]

http://www.biohabit.org/?q=node

In 1945, 40% of food calories were produced in home gardens.

By 1995, we produced only 3% of our calories in home gardens.

Think about that statistic for a minute.

Almost half of all food produced in the United States was produced by small scale farming in people's backyards.

So if you lost your job, you could potentially still feed yourself.

Now only 3% of our food is "home grown".

If you lose your ability to purchase food, you are unable to feed yourself.

That doesn't mean all of the unemployed would suddenly starve to death, but they certainly won't be as fortunate as their grandparents were when it comes to feeding themselves.