[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jonathan_Hoag', ' ')And while water is unique (i.e. you can't substitute a different substance for the job), oil isn't.

[Jonathan_Hoag]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'P')starr, that is basically what I was trying to say.

But I guess I need a realistic example to explain what I mean.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jonathan_Hoag', ' ')If water gets expensive it provides incentive to get more water from different sources, such as deep wells, desalination, recycling.

[NWMossBack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'A')ll you have come forward with is "a new source of energy" or "a new sustainable economic model."

Can you be more specific?

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NWMossBack', ' ')Why does violence seem inevitable?

[Jonathan_Hoag]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '
')BTW if we ever do transition to a solar based economy you can forget about getting "free" services off the interent. Something tells me if google had to pay triple the price for electricity to feed their energy hungry servers we wouldn't have a free search engines and email.

No amount of obnoxious internet advertisements could pay the electricity bill.

[dinopello]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')echnology cannot create energy.

[NWMossBack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'B')ecause scarcity breeds poverty and poverty breeds conflict. All depends upon the rate and magnitude of change.

[Jonathan_Hoag]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', ' ')but it would be difficult to deliver the incremental coal needed to accommodate a sudden surge in coal liquification demand accross the country.

[Jonathan_Hoag]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Oh, so you think it will be decades before we see $500 oil?

[Jester]

Sounds fine eh, $100 fuel whether it's oil or coal derived, everyone will just soak up that extra amount and drive less.

And your food that travels thousands of miles will not double or triple in price? That's ok, just soak up that extra amount too, no problem.

And the goods people need, that also have to be transported, again, bump those costs up even more since there won't be cheap product shipping in from China and Indonesian sweat shops, at least not at anywhere near the prices that we see now. But everyone will just soak up that extra expense, no problem.

Without petroleum derived fertilizers readily available, food production would drop to much lower yields than we see now. How do you counteract less food, just eat less ?

What of lost jobs, which inevitably will happen should the economy start to suffer from higher costs of everything?


Why would there be violence? Simply look throughout history. It's not so much about not having something, if you've never had something, you didn't lose anything. It's about having something and losing it, people don't take well to that and will do what it takes to keep what they have. Look at the switch to virtually barbaric behavior in New Orleans when people didn't have what they needed after merely a few days...

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jonathan_Hoag', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', ' ')but it would be difficult to deliver the incremental coal needed to accommodate a sudden surge in coal liquification demand accross the country.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NWMossBack', ' ')But faced with an initial shortfall of just a few percent, isn't it possible we will pick ourselves up after the initial shock and finally get to work on the problem?

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NWMossBack', ' ')I could, and others have trotted out many ideas that are summarily dismissed (fusion, solar, bio, etc.) but my point is that dire necessity will trigger NEW solutions that we cannot anticipate now.

For instance when England burned through all it's forests making charcoal, the question on most people's minds was likely "how can we possibly get more trees for charcoal?" when the solution was in the minerals beneath their feet.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NWMossBack', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'B')ecause scarcity breeds poverty and poverty breeds conflict. All depends upon the rate and magnitude of change.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jonathan_Hoag', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', ' ')but it would be difficult to deliver the incremental coal needed to accommodate a sudden surge in coal liquification demand accross the country.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jonathan_Hoag', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Oh, so you think it will be decades before we see $500 oil?

[nth]

People need to stop claiming high transport prices will end global trade. The perdcentage costs of transporting goods are so low that transport price will never stop global trade. Global trade will stop way before the costs of transportation rises out of control. It will stop due to other issues like lack of demand of goods due to lack of spending power after peak energy.

[NWMossBack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I')f we use the rule of 70 (which determines doubling or halving rates), 2% decline = 35 years 5% =14 years 14.5% = 4.8 years . The trend seems to be about 8%, which is 50% of our oil production gone in less than 9 years.

[Tyler_JC]

In Europe, the extra oil tax money goes to the government. All of those high gas taxes don't vanish from the European economy. Instead, the extra revenue is used to pay for social programs, roads, etc.

In the United States, extra money spent on oil would go to...Saudi Arabia and Nigeria to be siphoned off by dictators to buy weapons of war.