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Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby greenworm » Fri 09 Feb 2007, 15:17:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hose that don't see the light will eventually feel the heat.


Or extreme cold, who knows, I am sure people of the past collected much data on the oil_rocks. :lol:
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby oil_rocks » Fri 09 Feb 2007, 15:20:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', 'I')f you want to trust corrupt middle east dictators that still conduct public beheadings

I don't trust them, but the point is i can think of a million (even billions) of reasons they would under-report their reserves, but i can't think of a single reason for them to over-report them. And the fact that their estimates doubled overnight, well maybe that was the night they discovered a new huge deposit. happens all the time.

The fact that they continue pumping out millions of barrels a day should be proof enough that they really do have a lot of oil down there.

its ok to believe in a conspiracy theory but you have to be prepared to answer the question of who benefits from the conspiracy. And it seems to me that the blog posters are the only ones who benefit from over-reporting oil reserves. i don't buy it.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby clueless » Fri 09 Feb 2007, 15:52:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'b')enefit from over-reporting oil reserves.


OPEC production quotas are based on reserve estimates - In other words the more reserves you have the more you can produce, and the more money you ( as a corrupt middle east dicatotor) can hide away in Swiss Bank accounts once the middle east country you are ruling sinks into civil war and chaos and you have to flea the country becasue the ordinary poverty stricken inhabitants are sick and tired of the US sponsored dictators stealing the countries wealth.

Want to know how much the Saudi Royals (which are trained by former CIA and Special Forces agents) spend on bodyguards ???

So in short Oil_Rocks, once again, you are completely wrong. The guys that control middle east oil, for a number of reasons, have a vested interest in overstating reserves not understating. If they say they have less they, in effect, become a more desireable target for oil thirsty western invaders wanting to occupy and "liberate" their land and resources - by saying they have more oil than they actually have suits several purposes including appeasing folks like you into thinking oil is really not that important.

Is this staring to sound familiar ? Do you really think we invaded Iraq to "free the work of Tyranny"? If so you need to wake up and smell the coffee.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby oil_rocks » Fri 09 Feb 2007, 17:49:49

let me get this straight... so a 60 year old dictator (sadaam) sees that there is only 40 years worth of oil left, so he inflates the numbers, thereby claiming to have 80 years worth of oil so that when the oil runs out he can move to switzerland??? this is lunacy!!!

by the way, i think its funny when people quip about the war being over oil as if it is some sortof Gotcha moment. umm, hello? of course oil was a big reason we invaded them, but it also happens to be a very good reason as well. Its in the national interest. Why do u think we aren't making plans to invade dunfar (or whatever that hellhole is called).
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Fri 09 Feb 2007, 18:07:58

Clueless is trying to help you out but your not getting it oil.

You over estimate the reserves so that under SEC and OPEC quota rules they can pump more oil each quarter. There are many folks involved in the industry who believe that there is very little geological proof that the quoted reserves actually exist. Kuwait was recently caught in this big lie when it was noted (after a press leak) that they likely have only a bit more than half the reserves they stated back when everyone else inflated their numbers.

Its strictly an issue of quota. This stuff is all here for you to read about and go searching on your own, but youv'e failed to do this. Your stuck in the trap that everyone else is in. If you can't understand this than you likley won't understand some of the basic tenets of why this theory makes sense.

By the way, the name of the country your refferring to is Darfur
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby TonyPrep » Fri 09 Feb 2007, 18:17:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'T')he trouble is, you've never given us your calculations, only your conclusions. So you've figured out how to use unknown factors in your calculations? Then let us see the calculations.

I did give my calculations earlier in the post in a very detailed way. based on science it showed oil lasting for several hundred years.
Could you give a link to that post, oil_rocks? The closest I found to calculations were:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'I')ts pretty easy to see that 1,293 divided by 29 is going to be much more than a couple of years. its even much more than 20 years. Now you might be tempted to factor in the variable of expected increase in annual consumption. Great, but if you do that be sure to also factor in the expected 1% annual increase in proven reserves. If you factor in one without the other you are not being honest.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'i') predict a 0.25% decline rate, which gives us 200 years to reach 50%. The rationale being that as field start drying up, there will be an enormous, monumemntal effort to find new deposits and drill deeper than anyone has ever drilled before.
Neither of which can be regarded as detailed calculations.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'W')hy do you factor in a 1% increase for the foreseeable future?

Because that has been the trend over the past 20 years. (source is the EIA) - once again, this is just plain science.No, it's belief. What has been the rate in recent years and how long do you assume that 1% will be the figure from discoveries? As discoveries have declined since the mid 1960s, the trend is for a decreasing percentage of total recoverable oil, not a constant 1%. The figure given in your EIA report was not backed by a detailed discovery history yet you have just plugged it into your calculation (or, more likely, your conclusion).
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby clueless » Fri 09 Feb 2007, 18:21:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'l')et me get this straight... so a 60 year old dictator (sadaam) sees that there is only 40 years worth of oil left, so he inflates the numbers, thereby claiming to have 80 years worth of oil so that when the oil runs out he can move to switzerland??? this is lunacy!!!


Are you really this dense ?? Hwo about reading this book - The guy does not even mention "peak oil"

Sleeping with the Devil by former CIA agent Robert Baer.

He will explain in great detail the politcs of oil and middle eastern dictatorships.

The Dictators know one day they will be invaded and taken over, they have been occupied on and off for over 75 years, by either foriegn armies or corporations, so the more they can pump and sock away the more they will have when they are forced to flea - Like the Shah did in the 70's.

You cannot be this ignorant can you ?
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby TonyPrep » Fri 09 Feb 2007, 18:25:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'I') don't trust them, but the point is i can think of a million (even billions) of reasons they would under-report their reserves, but i can't think of a single reason for them to over-report them.
Then you clearly haven't done much research into peak oil. One good reason (and you only asked for one) is that OPEC production quotas changed to being based on stated reserves, sometime in the 80s. Around that time, reported reserves increased by double, or more, in most OPEC countries. Since then, despite having produced billions of barrels, the stated reserves remain almost the same as 10-20 years ago.

Hopefully, that will prompt you into doing a little more research about the factors involved in this argument; you couldn't think of a single reason for the over-reporting but now you have one (and a fairly obvious one, at that), so maybe there are other things you've missed?
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby oil_rocks » Fri 09 Feb 2007, 20:50:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'C')ould you give a link to that post, oil_rocks? The closest I found to calculations were

sure. its right here:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he saudi oil fields contain 261.9 B barrels of oil. They are currently extracting at a rate of 3.6 B barrels per year. If i have done my math right, then that would be about 72 years before that field runs dry. If you add in other known, but not tapped reserves (canada, alaska, russia, gulf of mexico, pacific ocean etc) we could probably get another 50 years of oil. Now lets add in unknown oil deposits that will inevidably be found over the next 50 years. Plus lets add in the fact that new technology developed over the next 50 years will likely make extremely deep drilling possible at a relatively low price. We are now up to about 220 years.

you may say, "hey wait a minute! what about increased demand as countries continue to get more industrialized!!"

ok, yes that's true, but lets also factor in the fact that new sources of energy will be replacing some of our oil demand in the future. Plus as reserves really do start getting lower, expect the price to go up higher which will force demand down even lower. So 100 years from now when cars are getting 200 miles per gallon and half of them are running on ethanol, i expect our demand for oil will actually be much lower than it is today.

So as a final calculation, i expect to see us hit our peak oil crisis in about 400 years and finally run out of oil in about 730 years. +- 100 years.


http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic26584-0-asc-15.html

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', 'T')he Dictators know one day they will be invaded and taken over, they have been occupied on and off for over 75 years, by either foriegn armies or corporations, so the more they can pump and sock away the more they will have when they are forced to flea - Like the Shah did in the 70's.

You cannot be this ignorant can you ?

Actually it is not me who is ignorant. apparently you do not know your history, my friend. The shaw died on July 27, 1980 at age of 60. only a year and a half after his overthrow, completely penniless and homeless.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_shah_of_iran

this is a nice theory you have, only problem is, there isn't a shred of truth to it. can u name a single dictator who fits this theory?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', ' ')As discoveries have declined since the mid 1960s, the trend is for a decreasing percentage of total recoverable oil, not a constant 1%.

Actually the biggest increases ever have been in the past 5 years. so guys, your information is just a little outdated i'm afraid.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/oil.html
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby clueless » Fri 09 Feb 2007, 21:26:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ctually it is not me who is ignorant. apparently you do not know your history, my friend. The shaw died on July 27, 1980 at age of 60. only a year and a half after his overthrow, completely penniless and homeless.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_shah_of_iran

this is a nice theory you have, only problem is, there isn't a shred of truth to it. can u name a single dictator who fits this theory?


How about Sadaam Hussein smart guy ? How much did he have stashed away ??? He just couldn't get to it...

The Shah was overthrown by the Iranian people, forced to Flea and was a US installed dictator. I said nothing about him being rich...Read the book I told you about. Where are all these dictators putting their money ? The Saudi Royals have about 750 billion in the US stock market, where is the rest of their cash kept - I will also give you two guesses which country will give them assylum when the Saudi people get sick and tired of all the countries wealth begin pocketed by these dirtbags ? Which leads me to another reason for them to overproduce and overstate - The recycling of petrodollars. There is an agreement - We give doallars for oil they invest the dollars back in our industry, Keeping very little for their own people - It keeps the US consumption machine running.

Yes - Part of my theory is speculative - The part about them being taken over and being forced to flea. It will happen one day either in a Saddam Hussein style invasion or in a peoples revolt.Think it can't happen ? - They are planing for it to happen, I assure you.

Anything else ?
Last edited by clueless on Sat 10 Feb 2007, 12:54:34, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby TonyPrep » Fri 09 Feb 2007, 22:00:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'C')ould you give a link to that post, oil_rocks? The closest I found to calculations were

sure. its right here:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he saudi oil fields contain 261.9 B barrels of oil. They are currently extracting at a rate of 3.6 B barrels per year. If i have done my math right, then that would be about 72 years before that field runs dry. If you add in other known, but not tapped reserves (canada, alaska, russia, gulf of mexico, pacific ocean etc) we could probably get another 50 years of oil. Now lets add in unknown oil deposits that will inevidably be found over the next 50 years. Plus lets add in the fact that new technology developed over the next 50 years will likely make extremely deep drilling possible at a relatively low price. We are now up to about 220 years.
No, that's a calculation for a single country, based on highly questionable data. You have not, that I could find, provided your calculations for world oil.

By the way, there is nothing inevitable about finding unknown oil deposits. It's impossible to accurately factor that in. However, I'd take the estimates of geologists, about yet to be discovered, over your simplistic ones, based on faith.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby TonyPrep » Fri 09 Feb 2007, 22:10:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', ' ')As discoveries have declined since the mid 1960s, the trend is for a decreasing percentage of total recoverable oil, not a constant 1%.

Actually the biggest increases ever have been in the past 5 years. so guys, your information is just a little outdated i'm afraid.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/oil.html
No, this is reserve estimates, not discoveries. If you look for discoveries, you'll find that about 1 barrel is being found for every 3 or 4 barrels that are being used (in some years, it's even been worse). A major oil company, Chevron, even launched a global advertising campaign, a year or two ago, to educate people that much less is being found than is being used (though they were more optimistic, at that time, claiming 1 barrel found for every 2 used).

What you are doing is using the most optimistic reports and forecasts, then assuming that those projected figures will stay constant.

Edit: typos
Last edited by TonyPrep on Sat 10 Feb 2007, 17:27:11, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby clueless » Sat 10 Feb 2007, 15:20:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o as a final calculation, i expect to see us hit our peak oil crisis in about 400 years and finally run out of oil in about 730 years. +- 100 years.


Well there you have it guys - The expert has spoken...
[smilie=adora.gif]

I would expect a 25% bump in equites and a 25% fall in commodities when trading opens monday. Better call your brokers and lock in your postions.

And he claims we are the ones making timing predictions.

:lol:
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Sat 10 Feb 2007, 16:11:54

what's all this talk about the Shaw being forced to flea? Did he join a flea circus?

Image
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby clueless » Sat 10 Feb 2007, 17:18:12

Sorry.........


Flee.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby oil_rocks » Sun 11 Feb 2007, 03:01:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'W')hat you are doing is using the most optimistic reports and forecasts, then assuming that those projected figures will stay constant.

No, not at all. What i've done is pointed out the obvious fact that you can't just take a simple bell curve and say, "oh, hey everyone. look here. the world's oil reserves are going to follow this path". sorry, guys, there are more forces at work than a simple graph takes into account.

My theory is quite simple and it states that "oil will last longer than we expect it to". That's it. and guess what, I've been right on the money because people have been predicting a catostraphic end to this resource for over 30 years, and guess what? it hasn't happened! and guess what again? it won't happen in the next 30 years either!!

this stuff is so simple guys. i'm not even sure why you can't see it the way it is. Its just basic economics. please people. think about this stuff before you go through all the work of creating web pages and movies and posting nasty comments. think!
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby TonyPrep » Sun 11 Feb 2007, 06:28:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'M')y theory is quite simple and it states that "oil will last longer than we expect it to". That's it. and guess what, I've been right on the money because people have been predicting a catostraphic end to this resource for over 30 years, and guess what? it hasn't happened! and guess what again? it won't happen in the next 30 years either!!
And, guess what? you just made a prediction, after rubbishing others based on bad previous predictions. It follows, using your bizarre logic, that any prediction about oil production levels must be wrong. This makes your prediction wrong, by your own reasoning.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 't')his stuff is so simple guys. i'm not even sure why you can't see it the way it is. Its just basic economics. please people. think about this stuff before you go through all the work of creating web pages and movies and posting nasty comments. think!
Mmm. Many people have thought about this stuff, and in much greater detail than you have. You have provided no calculations for your 100-400 years of plenty, other than some vague pointers to one country's reserves going up for a while. It's really odd that so many people and organizations, including your favourite EIA, do not share your beliefs. I have heard of no analyses that show oil to be as plentiful as you claim it is. All "independent" non-abiotic analyses that give an estimate of peak (and the abiotic ones don't give figures, as far as I'm aware) predict a peak within 30 years. Some of these organisations even include scientists with experience in oil geology and oil production. They all have access to more data than you and all have looked at the problem a little more deeply than you seem to have done.

And you tell us not to worry, based only on a basket of beliefs. I really can't figure out why you'd do that, unless it is from a yearning to convince yourself. After all, a peak within your lifetime, affecting whatever future you'd imagined for yourself, is very hard to take. And that is probably true for most people.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby clueless » Mon 12 Feb 2007, 11:30:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')hat you can't just take a simple bell curve and say


A simple bell curve ? There are some pretty smart people who have worked many years working on this "simple bell curve".

All this is really a moot point anyway because when supply can no longer meet demand for any amount of time we will face the reality of this issue.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby oil_rocks » Tue 13 Feb 2007, 04:21:51

Don't misquote me tonyprep, I never said i don't like predictions. on the contrary i would really like to hear your predictions so we can see who is more correct 10 years from now. I have given many of my own and am quite confident that they will hold up well over time.

your buddy Raphael has made a prediction and in 5 years we will se if he is correct. its a pretty safe bet to say he, like most of the other dooms-dayers will be proven wrong and more level-headed people like myself will hold the prevailing wisdom of the day.

And clueless, I understand where you get your ideas from, but you simply don't understand the basics of supply & demand economics. Have you ever wondered why diamonds are not in a shortage even though everyone loves them and there are relatively few of them in the ground?

One of my main problems with the whole peak oil crisis theory is that it does not factor in the price of oil. and withut that, you do not have real science. period. all you have is a dumb curve that means nothing. time will prove me right on this. care to make predictions? anyone?
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