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THE Subprime Situation Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Postby TommyJefferson » Thu 08 Feb 2007, 11:18:50

The link to the original story seems to have changed to:

New Link Here


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('fireplaceguy', 'S')oon we'll be seeing the effects of bankruptcy "reform" on all the families who were suckered into those ARM's, balloon notes, interest only and sub-prime high rate loans...


I love how you divert any responsibility from the people who actually borrowed the money and spent it.

If the free market were allowed to do its job, lenders would go out of business for making bad loans.

If the free market were allowed to do its job, the lumpenproletariat would be more cautious about voluntarily entering into contracts.

Instead, we have a system of national socialism wherein we subsidize the irresponsible behavior of both parties.

Has it occurred to any of the socialists here that the free market does not prohibit lenders from offering better interest rates by specializing in high-quality borrowers?

Oh wait. That would be "unfair" to the "underpriviliged", and probably result in some institutional racism as well. Obviously, more government regulation is needed to fix all this.
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Postby mmasters » Thu 08 Feb 2007, 20:48:30

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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Postby PenultimateManStanding » Thu 08 Feb 2007, 20:52:24

I did a google search on this today and our own thread here came up on top.
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Postby PrairieMule » Thu 08 Feb 2007, 21:42:42

In my dept I help fix inaccuracies on credit reports. About every 3rd call is a broker or refi rep trying to increase the FICO score. What's different is the ones they are calling in about are people with spectacular credit ratings like 720, but that's not enough. With a 720 FICO score a person could walk in a Lexus dealership and drive off with just a signature. These reps are shreiking at me on how to get it to 740, 760. Sheeeeet, you might as well ask on how to get your kid accepted to Harvard-on a scholarship.

The I got to thinking, what kind of loan requires a 760 FICO?

A 125%LTV 3YR ARM

As in borrowing 100% of todays value PLUS 25% putting the homeowner UPSIDE DOWN. You know like a car when they roll the negative equity into the new loan. I wonder if any one could find some data or reports to see if 125%LTV are on the rise?

I feel dirty...
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Sub-Prime showdown

Postby americandream » Fri 09 Feb 2007, 02:25:31

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Re: Sub-Prime showdown

Postby DantesPeak » Fri 09 Feb 2007, 08:49:02

Image

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')efault Jitters Batter Shares Of Home Lenders

"The thing none of us know, including the [Federal Reserve], is who is holding this stuff," Richard Kovacevich, chief executive of Wells Fargo & Co., one of the nation's biggest mortgage lenders, said in a recent interview. "The assumption is that it is well-diversified. If it's concentrated, it's going to be a disaster."

For now, most people in the $10 trillion U.S. mortgage market argue that the current slump in housing and surge in loan defaults won't lead to a disaster. "The mortgage market is vast, and the vast majority of the mortgage market is fine," says Lewis Ranieri, a pioneer in mortgage-backed securities in the 1980s, when he was a star trader at investment bank Salomon Brothers.

But some investors are getting singed, and jitters are growing about how widespread the damage will be and where it will show up next.

The number and variety of investors in U.S. mortgage securities has mushroomed in recent years even as lenders made riskier loans to help stretched consumers afford pricier homes. "There's been a sea change in the market," says Mr. Ranieri.


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Re: Sub-Prime showdown

Postby seahorse » Fri 09 Feb 2007, 09:31:06

Moderators, can this topic and the one under open discussion called "subprime lending collapse" be combined?

{Done, Bas}
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Postby seahorse » Fri 09 Feb 2007, 10:52:07

More from HBSC -

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')The buck stops with me," Mr Geoghegan said today, after the bank issued an unprecedented overnight warning about the state of its US business.



Many "doomer" commentators have said the US recovery from the 2001 recession was due to the Federal Reserve and banks pumping liquidity into the market, which allowed US citizens to take second mortages and continue their unabated consumerism. If this is true, then, the doomers may also be correct that the worst is yet to come, as it is the second mortgages which are failing:


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s the US housing market as slowed, householders have been repaying their first mortgage but have been slower to make payments on their second home loan, which had been taken out on the back of higher house prices.



HSBC is unable to say it won't deteriorate any further, but will say, "it won't happen again" meaning, going for volume of loans, not quality.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')r Geoghegan said that he could not say that "it won't deteriorate any further" but said "it won't happen again".


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he previous US management team had run the US mortgage business for volume.

New management has now been installed and Mr Geoghegan has been introducing management practices to set limits along geographic and product lines.


Even though admitting the problem could deteriorate, and even though shareholders questioned the purchase of the loans, he still calls it a dream portfolio (despite the $10bn loss last year).

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ow part of HSBC Finance, Mr Geoghegan defended the business, which analysts and shareholders have been questioning.

"I've got 35 million customers and all of that data in Middle America. This is a dream portfolio."


He still has a lot of hope for "middle America". I wonder what advice Kunstler would give him? 35 million loans? That's a big default potential. No wonder he can't guarantee it won't deteriorate further. As is said, "the bigger they come, the harder the fall."

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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Postby dogf » Fri 09 Feb 2007, 14:17:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FoxV', '
')
You guys are actually lucky because you have 30yr fixed mortgages down there. We canucks typically only have 5 year fixed, my term comes up Dec 2008 (7 and 10 year terms came out just after I locked in :-x )


If you get a good broker he can set you up with a 15,18 or 20 year term at just above 5 year rates. And they have been around for years...
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Postby threadbear » Fri 09 Feb 2007, 15:00:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dogf', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FoxV', '
')
You guys are actually lucky because you have 30yr fixed mortgages down there. We canucks typically only have 5 year fixed, my term comes up Dec 2008 (7 and 10 year terms came out just after I locked in :-x )


If you get a good broker he can set you up with a 15,18 or 20 year term at just above 5 year rates. And they have been around for years...


Can you recommend a broker for those who may need one, in their area?

The thing that is so tragic about the slowly deflating bubble is not just the great potential for loss of homes, it's the cascading job loss effect. When so much of the economy is built around construction, r.e. sales, home insurance and all the attendant sh** you purchase when you buy a new home, this is very serious, indeed.

The unwinding of the initial defaults, foreclosures and dropping price cascades through the economy, triggering another wave of layoffs and then a secondary spiralling downward triggering yet another wave of home losses. This just keeps on until the bitter end, which is nowhere in sight, at this point. The government or some other moneyed group could intervene with yet another asset bubble to pump up. My question is...presuming there is the means, somehow and somewhere, where is the next bubble going to be?
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Postby dogf » Fri 09 Feb 2007, 15:26:13

"Can you recommend a broker for those who may need one, in their area? "
You have a PM
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Postby firestarter » Fri 09 Feb 2007, 15:27:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'M')y question is...presuming there is the means, somehow and somewhere, where is the next bubble going to be?


There are no more bubbles to be had....unless the Fed can counterfeit another [s]3 trillion[/s] 6 trillion bucks (this time) out of thin air. They'll try like hell to, but in the end I think they're gonna fail this go round. The coming credit crunch is the end game.

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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Postby threadbear » Fri 09 Feb 2007, 15:56:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('firestarter', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'M')y question is...presuming there is the means, somehow and somewhere, where is the next bubble going to be?


There are no more bubbles to be had....unless the Fed can counterfeit another [s]3 trillion[/s] 6 trillion bucks (this time) out of thin air. They'll try like hell to, but in the end I think they're gonna fail this go round. The coming credit crunch is the end game.

Mike Shedlock on counterfeiting


They can try, I guess by printing money to militarize the economy, but they have to rely on China's and Japan's central banks to continue buying US treasuries to do this, without having the money fall to zero value. This is a little like asking China to provide funding for wars that are indirectly threatening to them, as a nation, or proxy wars that threaten them more directly. I agree, the end game could be near.

Here is an alternative--and this could be rather serendipitous, as part of the run-up in govt debt, is the direct result of running up the deficit, while cutting corporate tax and taxes on the upper 2 % income earners.

It seems with all the talk about global warming, with all the G-7 countries, hopping on the crisis wagon, something is being stirred up. What if the wealthy, after acquiring all of their land and gold, want to divest even further, away from guns and defence contractors? If militarization of the economy to fight foreign wars is eventually off the table, could this huge pool of funds flow out of Lockheed Martin, Boeing and into r&d into alternatives? Is that going to be the equivalent of the dot.coms in the late nineties, with many companies cratering, but some surviving, and saving the planet, at the same time? I'm hopeful.
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Postby seahorse2 » Fri 09 Feb 2007, 16:11:42

More talk/analysis about the growing subprime lending defaults:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ver the last several months I have been writing on Street Insight and talking on CNBC's "Kudlow & Co." about the ramifications of the developing implosion in the subprime mortgage market.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ast night's subprime mortgage news that credit losses are skyrocketing is the first shot across the bow of the boat called market optimism.


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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Postby firestarter » Fri 09 Feb 2007, 16:24:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '
')Here is an alternative--and this could be rather serendipitous, as part of the run-up in govt debt, is the direct result of running up the deficit, while cutting corporate tax and taxes on the upper 2 % income earners.

It seems with all the talk about global warming, with all the G-7 countries, hopping on the crisis wagon, something is being stirred up. What if the wealthy, after acquiring all of their land and gold, want to divest even further, away from guns and defence contractors? If militarization of the economy to fight foreign wars is eventually off the table, could this huge pool of funds flow out of Lockheed Martin, Boeing and into r&d into alternatives? Is that going to be the equivalent of the dot.coms in the late nineties, with many companies cratering, but some surviving, and saving the planet, at the same time? I'm hopeful.




That sounds plausible...eventually. I think both Doug Casey and Jim Puplava see a potential, relatively smooth, transition from our economic condition now to one where peak oil will demand infrastructure implementations that will keep us firing on at least five of our six economic cylinders going forward. Still, as the chickens come home to roost, there's going to be quite a bit of pain before we even begin to think of digging ourselves out of this awful fiscal mess we find ourselves in. Like you I'm hopeful but ready for the worst, just in case.
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Postby threadbear » Fri 09 Feb 2007, 16:32:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('firestarter', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '
')Here is an alternative--and this could be rather serendipitous, as part of the run-up in govt debt, is the direct result of running up the deficit, while cutting corporate tax and taxes on the upper 2 % income earners.

It seems with all the talk about global warming, with all the G-7 countries, hopping on the crisis wagon, something is being stirred up. What if the wealthy, after acquiring all of their land and gold, want to divest even further, away from guns and defence contractors? If militarization of the economy to fight foreign wars is eventually off the table, could this huge pool of funds flow out of Lockheed Martin, Boeing and into r&d into alternatives? Is that going to be the equivalent of the dot.coms in the late nineties, with many companies cratering, but some surviving, and saving the planet, at the same time? I'm hopeful.




That sounds plausible...eventually. I think both Doug Casey and Jim Puplava see a potential, relatively smooth, transition from our economic condition now to one where peak oil will demand infrastructure implementations that will keep us firing on at least five of our six economic cylinders going forward. Still, as the chickens come home to roost, there's going to be quite a bit of pain before we even begin to think of digging ourselves out of this awful fiscal mess we find ourselves in. Like you I'm hopeful but ready for the worst, just in case.


I agree that even in a best case scenario, where money flows to sustainable alternatives, there is still going to be a world of pain to endure. It's just the least bad solution, and I think there is a realization of this in elite corporate, private and govt. money circles.
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Postby evilgenius » Sat 10 Feb 2007, 01:08:46

The last step in the chain is not the subprime collapse. The last step is the whoring of the investment land in the US out to the rest of the world phase that will come right on the heels of the collapse. That will take a real exercise in volume pricing indeed.

Yes, high interest rates are coming. The only way that the US gov can stop deflation is to once and til the end thoroughly emplace the petrodollar. Oh, yeah, that war in Iraq that isn't going so well. If they can add the Iraqi output to the Saudi output and make sure that the enforced overproduction is only purchasable in dollars it will cause the petrodollar to be king through to the end. If the petrodollar is king others will need to buy US bonds, even at cheap prices and at the cost of seeing their investment fall in value. That way the US can keep passing on its debt to the rest of the world as a kind of imperial tax.

They could except they are going to fail in Iraq. It is simply too easy for the Russians to sell weapons to those opposed via their Iranian proxy. Remember the Russians in Afghanistan? They are now about to do the same thing, with a little pantomime from GW and the bunch about reinvading yet to come and fail as well, to the US in Iraq.
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Postby seahorse » Mon 12 Feb 2007, 21:16:16

Another article on the growing problems with the US subprime lending/home crisis.

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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Postby pedalling_faster » Tue 13 Feb 2007, 12:29:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TommyJefferson', 'I')nstead, we have a system of national socialism wherein we subsidize the irresponsible behavior of both parties.


one of my favorite co-workers at a large defense contractor in Southern California was the grandson of the company's founder. he didn't have any special privileges by virtue of being a grand-son, just did his job as a project manager of some kind.

we were allowed to bill the customer on the basis of "earned value". so we had some of the wierdest meetings in the world. i would walk in knowing that i had added 3 connectors to the backplane interface and had the change paperwork signed by all but the QC engineer, for example.

then we would spend an hour having conversations like, "well, last week, you said you were about 50% done." "OK, so now i'm 52% done." "how about 52.5% done ? then we can take 2.5% earned value for each week of the month".

thank God for that company founder's grandson, for making those absurd meetings surviveable.

it was his observation that the military industrial complex is a social welfare system for engineers.

instead of taking government money and building national rail systems, etc., we take government money and build military hardware.

Americans have been taught that "socialism is bad", when many of them participate in a HUGE social welfare program, and are unable to tell a fundamental truth about Canada - it's much more small business and employee friendly because health care costs are paid as a part of taxes, after the business is profitable. in America, health care costs are a huge up-front burden for any start-up business.
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Postby seahorse2 » Tue 13 Feb 2007, 13:22:40

We digress,

Hopefully everyone will scour the net for articles about the subprime collapse issue
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