[RdSnt]

At great deal of modern knowledge will be lost, but most of that will be very specialized and not of much direct use.
With research knowledge growing exponentially, but of such narrow focus, much of it is not directly applicable.
It will be lost because it is stored digitally, electronically.
The record (you know, the disk with grooves in it) was the last storage media developed that did not necessarily require electricity to retrieve the information.

I'm certainly hoping that good portions of our technological advances can be preserved. If for no other reason than as a reference for what not to repeat. A body of knowledge to bootstrap us to a new level of advancement.

One of the primary reasons we can't make that leap right now is because of the obsession with sunk costs.
A good case in point is to examine the implementation of high definition television. It was a US legal mandate that forced the broadcasting industry to adopt the upgrade. Due to their investment in the current infrastructure, which could not be adapted, they were not about to dump it all for a new system.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('128shot', 'I') do have a question though.


How much knowledge is likely to be lost? How much is likely to be retained?


Is it possible that infrastructure-in some ways- will be rebuilt by future generations and some forms of this life will live on?

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('128shot', ' ')Is it possible that infrastructure-in some ways- will be rebuilt by future generations and some forms of this life will live on?

[Laurasia]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
Of course, unless we nuke the planet. Once the population drops to equillibrium with the carrying capacity, abundance will once again spring forth.

[Laurasia]

Sorry Monte: I reread your post and detect some irony there. Your use of the word 'abundance' should have been a red flag!

Regards,

L.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Laurasia', 'S')orry Monte: I reread your post and detect some irony there. Your use of the word 'abundance' should have been a red flag!

[TreebeardsUncle]

Religions, particularly Catholicism with its emphasis on capturing the greatest number of souls possible, encourages over-breeding. I read the in the early Middle Ages (before the church had that much power over people) family sizes were smaller than in the later Middle Ages.
g

[gg3]

Re. population: What we need is a male pill that simultaneously shuts down sperm production and enables men to have multiple orgasms.

Otherwise, I'm in favor of using any available method to prevent births, starting with paying people to get themselves sterilized and topping out at reversibly-sterilizing everyone at age 10 and requiring permits for breeding: one child per couple, with the same criteria as apply to adoptive parents.

Re. scenarios: Plan for the worst, hope for the best. Think like a doomer, work like a power-downer, and dream like a cornucopian.

Re. immigration: The ultimate problem here is that overpopulated regions have an incentive to export people to regions that have sustainable population levels. Thus ultimately it will be necessary to shut the borders to keep out people from countries with high birth rates. That will mean "sealing the misery in," but if we don't, then our lack of additional habitable planets will "seal the misery in" on a global scale and Ma Nature will clean house with dispassionate thoroughness.

Living in an area with a large number of LatinoAmericano immigrants, I see them making a major positive contribution to the culture, at the level of work ethic, family and community ethic, and the personal character & cultural value system that are resilient enough to withstand rough times. The best bet for the US is to encourage negative population growth in the entire hemisphere, and keep the borders relatively open to enable this kind of cultural cross-pollination. But if that's not possible, then yes we'll have to shut the door.

The influx from the Middle East to Europe is scary as hell. Unlike most LatinoAmericano cultures, Middle Eastern cultures don't have much history of democracy and do have a rising level of both organized and random violence that is deeply engrained in the culture and goes all the way back to Biblical times. Whereas an insult exchanged among Americans (Latino or Norte) might lead to a fist-fight followed by a few drinks and making-up, an insult exchanged in most Middle Eastern cultures will lead to an escalating spiral of lethal vengeance and turn into a family feud that in turn can and often does escalate into tribal or regional warfare.

Europe should slam shut the doors and batten down the hatches and do whatever is needed to keep the Middle East out, with limited exceptions and with a maximum limit based on the ability of the immigrants to assimilate over a period of two or three generations.

Re. horsemen: I'm betting on Plague coming first, followed by Pestilence. Famine and War ride in thereafter, at about the same time.

[ALBY]

overbreeding and poverty go hand in hand. nothing new or sensational there. the more precarious your circumstances, the more likely tou are to have a larger family. part biology, part practical logic. if odds are half your kids are going to die, you'll have twice as many.

[TonyPrep]

I think the alleged link between wealth and breeding is a little simplistic. There does seem to be a correlation but the developed/wealthy nations still seem to have an overall excess of births over deaths, though small. So, if the correlation turns out to be a real cause-effect relationship, how do we know just what level of wealth produces a stable population and do we use a trial and error approach to get there, if it is at all possible?

Then there is the equally simplistic notion of "solving" the population problem simply by reducing births. Part of the increase in populations has been the increase in life expectancy. Decreasing births would just lead to increasingly aged populations, which would be more and more difficult to support.

I expect that the solution to population growth will be a lot more complex than some people imagine.

[ALBY]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'I')but the developed/wealthy nations still seem to have an overall excess of births over deaths, though small

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ALBY', 'I') beg to differ. let me Channel some Steyn here

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', 'T')here are two ways to lower the population in the long term. Decrease birth or decrease life expectancy.

Is there a third I'm missing?

Because it's obvious that we haven't gotten to the point where we're willing to intentionally lower life expectancy through homocide or withholding medical care, then what does that leave?

What have I missed?

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', 'W')hat have I missed?

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', ']')Nothing. It is just that most people who post on the need to reduce populations concentrate on the first option. They need to be aware that that will result in an increasingly aged population.

[TreebeardsUncle]

Hi.
Agree that Latino immigration is acceptable and Muslim -- particularly Middle Eastern -- immigration is not. The former are relatively civil, once they get past the age of pointless aggression -- say about 25 --, have strong values of family and community, work hard, and have a religion that is compatible with national values and mores. The Islamics -- by the nature of their religion -- refuse to recognize a separation between church and state. In fact their shariah law demands that the state conform to standards of muslim practice. Were they to become dominant, science, freedom, job, and women's rights would be excised from society. {edited by Bas;racist remark}The more I learn about their religion the more it comes across as barbaric, bizare, and dangerous. I think living in a world where they are in control would be far more unpleasant and repressive than living in a communist society. Communism and socialism had a certain appeal for the European workers. Islam certainly does not.
And, yes, this is un-pc. But one should face up to it. Gutless sucking-up to phony pc values won't help you in the real outside of college campuses and litigation-shy companies etc. The Russians have a history of paranoia and a desire for strong -- read oppressive-- governments. The Germans are war-like. And the Near Eastern muslims are vengefull, primitive in their idelogies, mysoginistic, and prone to excessive violence.

[gg3]

Gideon:

I'm a good ol' American mongrel. 3/4 mixed Euro and 1/4 South America. How'bout you? BTW, yes, you need to read your history. Mexico and Central & South American regimes have enough history of democracy to make it stick, interspersed with periods of authoritarianism (e.g. Venezuela at present) and totalitarianism (e.g. Chile under Pinochet). As for the Sandinistas, remember Ortega left office when he lost an election about 15 years ago, and now he's back in office (as a moderate!) because he won the last one fair & square.

By comparison, there is nothing remotely similar in the Middle East, where women have freedom of movement, basic civil rights, the right to vote, and the ability to have jobs and social lives outside the home.

If you were female and the choice was Venezuela or Saudi, the decision would be a no-brainer: Chavez is hardly as bad as the friggin' Wahhabis.

I do however agree about the Norplant. And the males should have to take something like an anti-viagra that makes their weewees go limp for the duration. Better yet just offer a one-time payment of $5k to anyone who gets spayed or neutered. Problem solved and no supervision issues either.

Treebeard:

It's not Islam per se, it's the fundamentalism. Recall all the barbiarianism in the Jewish and Christian Bibles. Look up Sufism, particularly the Sufi poets, starting with Hafiz. And look up Christian Dominionism, starting with Rushdoony (sometimes spelled Rushdooney). Hafiz is all about peace love & understanding, and Rushdooney would be right at home with the Taliban.

It's not about race either: You can take European Jews who are perfectly civilized, transplant them to the disputed desert regions of Israel, and they quickly turn into raging fanatics who are the perfect counterpart to their opposite numbers on the Palestinian side.

It's the ecology of the Middle East as a region. Take a lush paradise i.e. the "fertile crescent," add bad agricultural practices, and the result is a harsh desert where escalating violence provides a tribal advantage. What we see in the Middle East is the impact of the population vs. resources equation on the culture, taken out over hundreds of generations until it has become a permanent fixture.

---

Births vs. deaths, and powerdown:

Legalize recreational marijuana. This will produce pandemic amotivational syndrome and cause a generalized decline in consumption levels of material goods and energy. (Pot tricks the brain's "reward systems" to make the user feel the "sense of having accomplished something" without having accomplished anything. Excellent way to make powerdown voluntary.) No, I am not kidding.

Legalize opiates. Same rationale, but more effective at pacifying people who might otherwise riot. Also tends to make people infertile.

Reverse all the anti- attitudes about smoking, drinking, and other drugs. Install cigarette machines in junior high and high schools, and lower the drinking age back to 18. These measures will start to bring lifespan back down to a reasonable level.

And what I said about a "male pill" that makes guys sterile but multi-orgasmic. "Women say Yes to men who say Many!"

For those who are into healthy natural living, we can promote extreme sports, for example mountain climbing. "Splat!"

And last but not least, any time a person goes in for a lifesaving medical intervention, they get spayed or neutered. After all, in the "state of nature" they themselves would not have made it out alive, much less been able to reproduce. So we have compassion for the person themselves and let them live, but we carry out Darwin's Dictum and don't let them reproduce.

As for the ageing population, see above about smoking, drinking, and other drugs. We can also disconnect vegetables. No brain functioning, you're legally dead, byebye!

Pandemic flu will also help deal with this issue, but if not, then a nuclear war might help. And as long as we keep going down the present path, the latter is a greater than zero probability.

[pea-jay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'I')t's not about race either: You can take European Jews who are perfectly civilized, transplant them to the disputed desert regions of Israel, and they quickly turn into raging fanatics who are the perfect counterpart to their opposite numbers on the Palestinian side.

[JPL]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'I') expect that the solution to population growth will be a lot more complex than some people imagine.

[RdSnt]

Nice image, that was the blast the Soviets let off. The world's largest hydrogen bomb. Scared the shit out of everybody, and all the atomic countries stopped testing.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JPL', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'I') expect that the solution to population growth will be a lot more complex than some people imagine.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', 'W')ith all respect, MQ, I don't think the overpopulation problem is more than simple.

Perhaps dealing with the fall out is complex, but the root problem is simple.