[Mesuge]

Well, there is some time left and lot of biosphere to burn out - I'll place my bet on the bumpy plateau scenario, demand destruction in the 3rd world, further devaluation of the petrodollar so in esence business as usual for the westerns at least for next 20 yrs. Yes, with some strong inflation etc., rising unemployment, falling public services but no "real rapture" to speak of.

The result of this period would be

a/ massive rethinking of the current consumer patterns (low prob)
b/ the real rapture i.e. first instalment of the Olduvai cliff (high prob)

variables as higher depletion rates, nationalization of oil&gas, wider ME war, might all hasten the development by few years obviously

So, let's go shopping

[Chaparral]

To add an additional data point or three, high corn prices based on ethanol humbuggery are driving the feedlot operators to switch to wheat because it's cheaper. It makes one wonder if this signals the initial stages of a dieoff of the CAFO meat industry. The only hope for soybeans to stay where they are is if South America plants a record crop and has the good weather to go with it. Daniels Trading opines that we'll need to see $8.00 beans to forestall shorages in that commodity. A number of farmers are talking of corn on corn rotation, saying that they'll profit even with the higher fertilizer prices factored in. We can see more natural gas go to make more ammonium nitrate to further burn the soil and wash into the GOM and make the dead zone all the bigger.

The 2007 growing season will be interesting. The Will the southern grain belt get any rain? The current pricing structure is based on the assumption of normal precipitation in the midwest and normal yields. Based on CC trends, is the assumption of normality more of a "Hail Mary pass" than a rational projection? Will the high plains again be baked in drought? Will pastures in S. Dakota again turn brown by June and corn get burnt up by tasseling stage in Nebraska like it did in '06?

It's all starting to come together, or should one say, collide.

[ALBY]

Let me take a shot at adding a few troubling items to the list:

The are serveral emerging demographic disaters looming in the not too distant future.

Foremost, China is missing somewhere between 10 and 20 million women. Nobody knows how this will play out as it unprecedented in human history. Have they manufactured a clone army for resource wars ?

Also, if current trends continue, Europe will be majority muslim by 2050 and it will be interesting to see how these feckless cultures deal with homegrown jihadi radicals. Wiill they don the bhurka and and relinquish their culture silently or will there be mischief ?

For the United States, it means that our friends will no longer look like our friends, which begs the question: Why are we getting all jingo and pissing off all our future trading partners in Latin America ?

**furrows brow**

[JPL]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
We get one shot at this.

[JPL]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ALBY', 'A')lso, if current trends continue, Europe will be majority muslim by 2050 and it will be interesting to see how these feckless cultures deal with homegrown jihadi radicals. Wiill they don the bhurka and and relinquish their culture silently or will there be mischief ?

[ALBY]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JPL', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ALBY', 'A')lso, if current trends continue, Europe will be majority muslim by 2050 and it will be interesting to see how these feckless cultures deal with homegrown jihadi radicals. Wiill they don the bhurka and and relinquish their culture silently or will there be mischief ?

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ALBY', 'A')lso, if current trends continue, Europe will be majority muslim by 2050

[JPL]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ALBY', '
')yes and it's great.

for now.

but i saw an underclass of turkish workers in germany and algerians making peugeot flambe in paris. you all have a demographic nightmare of ghastly proportions unfolding. you sound like you'll fight, which is good. but banning headscarves is not the answer.

yes, i read mark steyn's book on the plane ride home.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mesuge', 's')o in esence business as usual for the westerns at least for next 20 yrs. Yes, with some strong inflation etc., rising unemployment, falling public services

[ALBY]

LMFDO JPL.

sorry to have offended you. so many good people everywhere.

feel free to hurl invective at the fat ass infotained malltopia that is america. you would be right and wrong just as i was with my smart ass remark to you.

count me as an admirer of european culture, one who is sad to see it subsumed in PC appeasement to a death cult that is radical islam. again, there is a demographic bolus of young islamic men that have no future and are intent on ruining yours (ours) too.

btw, young men always cause the problems. if it was a demographic bolus of young women, we're not having this discussion !

your culture is worth fighting for. thats the misanthrope in me talking.

all my best.

[ALBY]

demography is destiny and our demographic future is on a crash course with PO and GW.

the basics:

we become more urban, the rich countries stop reproducing, the poor islamic nations experience unprecedented population growth, aids depoulates and destabilizes africa, china gets old before it gets rich, russia radically depopulates and conflcit ensues with china over their empty eastern lands, trans mediterranean migration fills europe with poor alienated muslims and japan builds robots to care for its elderly.

interestingly, the US is saved by immigration, which, as I mentioned before, makes it curious that we treat hispanics like chit. of course, we did this before in the last waves of immigration in the 19th and 20th centuries. america can usually be counted on to do the right thing, but only after trying everything else first.

however, these trends are underpinned by the assumption that we'll be pumping 130 MBD in 50 years. so, take them for what they're worth !

[MonteQuest]

Great debate folks! Glad to see it stay so civil.

[IanC]

I liked the earlier observation that we are adept at compartmentalizing the problems Monte lists for us. Global warning goes into the "environmental" silo, Middle East problems go into the "current events" silo, edndebtedness goes into "Personal Finance". Our journalists are bad at tying it all together, and we are bad at assimilating all the information.

-IanC

[TreebeardsUncle]

Hi.
Well, as to why Americans don't connect the dots by and large,
that is because America is an ESFJ society with an ISTJ civil service
and an advertising-driven media. America lacks an N other than in
its marginalized and derided intellectual population.

On another note, I asked this question awhile back, and, as this thread seems to be a suitable venue, I will repeat it here.
On this 5-point scale how do you see the interconnected effects conspiring to limit population and economic growth playing out.
(I think what we are seeing now are the -x^2 effect part of the logarithmic equation dx/dt = ax - bx^2 which is a basic model of population growth, with x being the amount of populatin and t being time.)

1. It will be a non-issue.
2. It will be like the 70's with gas shortages, but without the disco.
3. It with be like the 30's with the great depression but without the flappers.
4. It will be like the fall of the Roman empire, with a break down of central authority, large groups of immigrants changing the demographics of populations, and a return to more primitive conditions, perhaps at the level of the nineteenth century.

5. The effects will be even more severe, involving substantial depopulation, hardship, loss of written knowledge, and a return to pre-industrial conditions.

6. more severe still

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TreebeardsUncle', 'O')n this 5-point scale how do you see the interconnected effects conspiring to limit population and economic growth playing out.

[chris-h]

The future will be like the Matrix.
While all the poor die all the rich will connect their brain to the central mainframe.
The central mainframe will be called "god" .
All the plugged will have the impression that business continues as usual while the coal burning that power the machines and the mainframe makes the sky black.

[JPL]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ALBY', 'L')MFDO JPL.

sorry to have offended you. so many good people everywhere.

feel free to hurl invective at the fat ass infotained malltopia that is america. you would be right and wrong just as i was with my smart ass remark to you.

count me as an admirer of european culture, one who is sad to see it subsumed in PC appeasement to a death cult that is radical islam. again, there is a demographic bolus of young islamic men that have no future and are intent on ruining yours (ours) too.

btw, young men always cause the problems. if it was a demographic bolus of young women, we're not having this discussion !

your culture is worth fighting for. thats the misanthrope in me talking.

all my best.

[JPL]

EDIT: oops - duplicate posting

[JPL]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', 'S')omeone wrote:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') world which would (in N America and Europe) look a bit more advenced than the 19'th century but which would still use mule and horse-power on the roads, and sail and coal for most of its sea-transport. The rail-road would be the main form of transport on land and there would be the odd steam-car for the rich.

[128shot]

I do have a question though.


How much knowledge is likely to be lost? How much is likely to be retained?


Is it possible that infrastructure-in some ways- will be rebuilt by future generations and some forms of this life will live on?