by gampy » Fri 02 Feb 2007, 04:44:00
Ever since I became interested in the idea of peak oil, resource depletion, and the decline of the oil age, I have waited patiently for the world to come to a crashing halt.
Hasn't happened yet. *sigh*
*puts on Nostadamus hat*
I am no expert or prognosticator, but I think the end of western civilization is not going to happen until about 2050. (I'll more than likely be dead by then...damn.)
I think environmental concerns will have more to do with the apocalypse than oil, or rather, the lack of it.
Drought, flooding, increased hurricanes/extreme weather events, (and the consequences thereof,) malaria in North America, and Europe, as well as influenza, will probably have more effect on economies by 2050 than oil.
Although oil is and will be the catalyst for any large scale wars. At least in the next 10 years.
So. Barring a thermonuclear world war, I say we will see a slow melt of the western economies. The U.S. goes first, brings Canada down with it, India goes next, then China/ Japan, and then Europe and Russia. Africa, the middle east, and sout east asia will continue to suffer as they always have, no big change for them, except perhaps South Africa will resemble Zimbabwe, and India will resemble Bangladesh.
That's how I see it shaping up, barring accidents or injury. (massive war)
EDIT: Sorry I forgot to include Australasia, and South America in my prognostication. Australia will also go south, because of even worse drought, and ethnic unrest. Mad Max indeed.
South America will actually make out the best I think. For many reasons, but the main one being their relative isolation from the world economy at large. They are already making inroads to independance in energy, food production and manufacturing.
But it all depends on sea levels in 2050. All bets are off if they rise significantly in 40 years.