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Collapse - Just want some thoughts on this

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Collapse - Just want some thoughts on this

Unread postby RonMN » Thu 11 Jan 2007, 16:27:40

The truth is nobody knows when TS will HTF.

In my opinion it could happen abywhere between tonight and 5 years from now.

Tonight - very unlikely

1/1/2012 - very unlikely

Sometime inbetween...VERY likely! I think we'll start seeing some of it within months...but not the complete & utter breakdown just yet.
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes.
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Re: Collapse - Just want some thoughts on this

Unread postby MrBill » Fri 12 Jan 2007, 04:13:27

coyote wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')anada's like that guy who lives upstairs from a really big party. -- John Stewart.
_________________


Or as Hewey Lewis might say, "its hip to be square". I cannot help but think of all those cool kids in my small town high school. Where are they now? ; - )
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
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Re: Collapse - Just want some thoughts on this

Unread postby manu » Sat 13 Jan 2007, 11:23:22

Hell on Earth.
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Re: Collapse - Just want some thoughts on this

Unread postby Dreamtwister » Sat 13 Jan 2007, 14:13:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'I') cannot help but think of all those cool kids in my small town high school. Where are they now? ; - )


If they are anything like the cool kids in my high school, they are probably still living within 1km of that school, working the Timmy's drive-through.
The whole of human history is a refutation by experiment of the concept of "moral world order". - Friedrich Nietzsche
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Re: Collapse - Just want some thoughts on this

Unread postby mgibbons19 » Sat 13 Jan 2007, 14:26:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', 'Y')e gods people, give the woman a break. She asked a legitimate question that all of us have asked.

Diamondlady, I think the reason folks here are being such smartasses is because we honestly don't know. None of us have crystal balls.


My balls are brass. don't know about yours.
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Re: Collapse - Just want some thoughts on this

Unread postby ClassicSpiderman » Fri 02 Feb 2007, 03:04:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dreamtwister', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'T')he Amero will not happen because Canadians do not trust Americans. Period. Screwed over one too many times. Why would we climb into bed with the US given all your fiscal deficts and unfunded future liabilities? Go ahead. Nuke us. Invade us. But don't expect us to pay your bills willingly! HAHA!


I think you underestimate Ottawa's ability to slither along on it's political belly. Even Jean Chretien, the most virulently anti-US Prime Minister in living memory managed to turn control of our military over to NORTHCOM back in 2002.


I thought that was Trudeau?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hen we go to Harper, who's quite possibly the most virulent pro-US PM in living memory...


I call your Harper and raise you a Mulroney... ;)


To those 'patriotic' Americans who are opposed to the concept of the Amero and the North American Union, they could use Canada's natural propoensity for anti-Americanism to their advantage and use that to throw a monkey wrench into the whole thing.
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Re: Collapse - Just want some thoughts on this

Unread postby gampy » Fri 02 Feb 2007, 04:44:00

Ever since I became interested in the idea of peak oil, resource depletion, and the decline of the oil age, I have waited patiently for the world to come to a crashing halt.

Hasn't happened yet. *sigh*

*puts on Nostadamus hat*

I am no expert or prognosticator, but I think the end of western civilization is not going to happen until about 2050. (I'll more than likely be dead by then...damn.)

I think environmental concerns will have more to do with the apocalypse than oil, or rather, the lack of it.

Drought, flooding, increased hurricanes/extreme weather events, (and the consequences thereof,) malaria in North America, and Europe, as well as influenza, will probably have more effect on economies by 2050 than oil.

Although oil is and will be the catalyst for any large scale wars. At least in the next 10 years.

So. Barring a thermonuclear world war, I say we will see a slow melt of the western economies. The U.S. goes first, brings Canada down with it, India goes next, then China/ Japan, and then Europe and Russia. Africa, the middle east, and sout east asia will continue to suffer as they always have, no big change for them, except perhaps South Africa will resemble Zimbabwe, and India will resemble Bangladesh.

That's how I see it shaping up, barring accidents or injury. (massive war)

EDIT: Sorry I forgot to include Australasia, and South America in my prognostication. Australia will also go south, because of even worse drought, and ethnic unrest. Mad Max indeed.

South America will actually make out the best I think. For many reasons, but the main one being their relative isolation from the world economy at large. They are already making inroads to independance in energy, food production and manufacturing.

But it all depends on sea levels in 2050. All bets are off if they rise significantly in 40 years.
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Re: Collapse - Just want some thoughts on this

Unread postby MrBill » Fri 02 Feb 2007, 08:34:25

I put the confluence of climate change; a collapse in wild fish stocks; and other natural problems along with a terminal end to petroleum between 2030 and 2050 by which time the earth's population will be at or approaching 9 or 10 billion people with less natural resources to deal with that burden. The absolute crunch period may be between 2050 and 2100. Most of us will not see that, but probably just as well. I cannot imagine it is going to be sunshine and lollipops! There may pockets of those not so bad off, but I would not go so far as to predict places experiencing prosperity amid the long transition to an uncertain future post peak oil depletion.
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Re: Collapse - Just want some thoughts on this

Unread postby lateStarter » Fri 02 Feb 2007, 18:18:20

Stop the fucking denial... We are all going down hard! I would say check back in in 2010, but I seriously doubt anyone will have that ability or luxury. I seriously envison a whole lot of fighting going on by then. Try to get off the radar. There is nothing in human history to indicate that we will suddenly start cooperating in the face of immediate die-off.
We have been brought into the present condition in which we are unable neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them. - Livy
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Re: Collapse - Just want some thoughts on this

Unread postby Ayame » Fri 02 Feb 2007, 18:48:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lateStarter', 'T')here is nothing in human history to indicate that we will suddenly start cooperating in the face of immediate die-off.


Yes, groups of people will probably cooperate to kill off other groups of people over resources :-D
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Re: Collapse - Just want some thoughts on this

Unread postby vision-master » Fri 02 Feb 2007, 19:17:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dogf', 'I') read this thread to mean what is gonna happen. And here are my predictions.
However, I still am in preparation mode for the worst.

BUT;

The Upside to Peak Oil

Remember back in the 70s we were complaining they were taking the wood out of the car dashboard and it was all turning to plastic?
And maybe if transportation becomes so expensive, jobs will come home from China and we will have factories pumping out the latest VCR equivalent.
Yes there will be heightened emotions when the general public realizes this is happening. Somewhere between the feelings of Y2K and 911, they will realize the world will change overnight. But it won’t really be overnight.
As long as world war 3 doesn’t start over Iran’s nukes or Russia’s oil, we should be able to make the transition.
Once gas hits 10 bucks a gallon, nothing changes other than we drive more like those in Briton paying 8 bucks a gallon. If anything, we might like the end result. While it might start out as high unemployment, the government will probably help this time. They will need people to build the reactors/windmills/PV farms that will be needed to power the electric transportation system being set up all over North America. We will be such an electric society generated from the sun we will easily have enough left over to keep our water radiators of yesteryear filled with warm water. It’s not like the government can’t afford this. Not only will they have given up on the oil wars, saving all that money, if things are still a little tight they will just print more money. Not like that isn’t going on right now anyways.
People will be buying new Tesla minivans made of non plastic materials of the day. Maybe a lot more food really is homegrown. Garden girl proves this isn’t so hard. With less carbon in the air, less inhalers for the school kids. Technology isn’t going to stop advancing along its bell curve. Hopefully if Canada ever does build a national system of power lines to balance the wind farms they bury it for aesthetics. Video phones really do make it big in the telecommuting world.
90% of the worry is moving that orange and banana north. When the Amtrak shares are bought by GWB Inc. it will get electrified real quick. And man it will grow fast…
Or better yet private money gets thrown at it like it is now towards renewables.
By product is a lot less pollution. Less health issues. Doctors will have time to make house calls.
Maybe if it takes 15-20 years for the transition, it will actually be looked upon as a good thing.


Bob Marley

"Revelation, reveals the truth... ”

“ It takes a revolution to make a solution... "
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Re: Collapse - Just want some thoughts on this

Unread postby threadbear » Fri 02 Feb 2007, 19:51:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('diamondlady1025', 'H')i All!

Been reading alot about the dollar, exporting, china, and such all of the stuff here on this forum and I was just wondering what everyone's thoughts are on when do you see the US or the world heading for economic collapse, where there is nothing being imported from China anymore, the dollar going bye bye and such? And how long do you think it will last? and how do you see it resolving itself?

Just wondering what everyone's thoughts are?

Diamondlady


Watch and be ready for war with Iran. Most major downturns are kickstarted by some catastrophic event. That's when the wheels come off. Many are saying this will definitely take place in 2007, some are saying as early as this month, and probably before May.

Are you preparing Diamond lady? If so, how?
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Re: Collapse - Just want some thoughts on this

Unread postby threadbear » Fri 02 Feb 2007, 19:53:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lateStarter', 'S')top the fucking denial... We are all going down hard! I would say check back in in 2010, but I seriously doubt anyone will have that ability or luxury. I seriously envison a whole lot of fighting going on by then. Try to get off the radar. There is nothing in human history to indicate that we will suddenly start cooperating in the face of immediate die-off.


If you get off the radar and start your own survivalist farm somewhere in the wilderness, you are a sitting duck. Read accounts from Argentina about their meltdown and how things unfolded socially.
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Re: Collapse - Just want some thoughts on this

Unread postby ColossalContrarian » Fri 02 Feb 2007, 20:12:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lateStarter', 'S')top the fucking denial... We are all going down hard! I would say check back in in 2010, but I seriously doubt anyone will have that ability or luxury. I seriously envison a whole lot of fighting going on by then. Try to get off the radar. There is nothing in human history to indicate that we will suddenly start cooperating in the face of immediate die-off.



Enjoy what you can NOW!!! BEFORE the proverbial dieoff!!!

everyone else is =]
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Re: Collapse - Just want some thoughts on this

Unread postby NWMossBack » Fri 02 Feb 2007, 21:34:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'I')f you get off the radar and start your own survivalist farm somewhere in the wilderness, you are a sitting duck. Read accounts from Argentina about their meltdown and how things unfolded socially.


Wikipedia - Argentina Contemporary Developments

Doesn't look too bad to me. In what way did things "unfold socially" for you to suggest a parallel to PO survivalist strategies?
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Re: Collapse - Just want some thoughts on this

Unread postby threadbear » Sat 03 Feb 2007, 01:16:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NWMossBack', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'I')f you get off the radar and start your own survivalist farm somewhere in the wilderness, you are a sitting duck. Read accounts from Argentina about their meltdown and how things unfolded socially.


Wikipedia - Argentina Contemporary Developments

Doesn't look too bad to me. In what way did things "unfold socially" for you to suggest a parallel to PO survivalist strategies?


I should have qualified that. Someone here linked to someone's description of his experiences living in Agentina during the financial meltdown. He said, for the most part, living outside of community on a small farm without near neighbours put you at a great disadvantage crime wise.
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Re: Collapse - Just want some thoughts on this

Unread postby MacG » Sat 03 Feb 2007, 19:08:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NWMossBack', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'I')f you get off the radar and start your own survivalist farm somewhere in the wilderness, you are a sitting duck. Read accounts from Argentina about their meltdown and how things unfolded socially.


Wikipedia - Argentina Contemporary Developments

Doesn't look too bad to me. In what way did things "unfold socially" for you to suggest a parallel to PO survivalist strategies?


I should have qualified that. Someone here linked to someone's description of his experiences living in Agentina during the financial meltdown. He said, for the most part, living outside of community on a small farm without near neighbours put you at a great disadvantage crime wise.


FerFal. He comes trough as a slightly whackish loner who spent to much time on US handgun sites.
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