[Bas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', 'y')o oilrocks, ever heard of Matthew Simmons?

[clueless]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'u')mmm... i'm not sure if you are keeping up on current affairs, but i don't think sadaam hussein has issues any global oil reserve reports lately.

[oil_rocks]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', 'Y')ou are a fool.

[Last_Laff]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', 'Y')ou are a fool.

[clueless]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'c')lueless, you made a rediculous claim that sadam hussein has recentlly been issuing misleading oil reserve reports to the world and I found that very hard to believe (being that he is dead and all) and you call me the fool? come on.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', ' ')Yes, I admit I stated the wrong conclusion about that. What I meant to say is that the rate of increase has been dropping. which means that yes, consumption is still going up every year, but it still flies in the face of most long term projections that face that the rate of increase has dropped and not exceleated like everyone had predicted. I'm sure many on this forum were surprised when they first heard about that (not saying that they first heard about it from me, but whenever they heard that, i'm sure many were surprised).

[smiley]

Tsss.. let's keep it civilized boys. Calling an opposer a fool and a drop-out certainly does not strengthen your case. Let's just assume he's misguided.

Oil_rocks. About one page back you were talking about the Hubbert curve. Now I don't know your mathematical abilities so don't be offended if I start out too low.

The Hubbert curve is a curve which describes the production as a function of time. The integral of this curve is the cumulative production (which is an S-curve). The upper asymptote of this S-curve is the total amount of recoverable oil. This corresponds to the area under the bell curve.

Since we cannot change history we have to fix the bell curve on the left hand side to the historical production.

If you find new oil you increase the total amount of recoverable oil. In the curve this corresponds to an increase of the area under the bell curve. Increasing the area under the curve, whilst keeping the left hand side fixed does shift "the peak" to a later date.

The critical question is by how much?

And here is the catch. The relation between peak dates and reserves is not linear. If you find one years worth of production in reserves that does not mean that you get one year delay in the peak.

To shift the peak date by 5 years you need to increase the reserves by ~25% (~15 years of todays production). Now imagine how much reserves you need to find to shift the date by 20 years or more. It is ludicrous.

The IEA acknowledges this and therefore uses a different function to describe the oil production. Based on the hotelling rule they devised a production graph which looks like a sawtooth. By abandoning the rules of symmetry they can allow the peak to occur later without having to boast ludicrous reserve claims.

And in a sense they are right. New technology causes steeper decline rates and therefore production curves will be a bit skewed. But not much more than a bit. If you shift the peak date beyond 60% of cumulative production, the decline rates becomes so large that they become unrealistic (as is currently the case). Some estimates show average (!) decline rates of 12%. That is practically impossible. Again this option only allows you to shift the date by a few years.

So yes you are right that there is some flexibility in the peak date.

But not by much. Unless you assume that there is a hundred times more oil to be found than we have today, mathematics, physics and plain common sense alike, predict that were not going to make it to the end of my pension.

It's a bummer I know.

[MonteQuest]

Good post, smiley. Nice expansion on the point I was trying to make with him earlier.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'b')ut it still flies in the face of most long term projections that face that the rate of increase has dropped and not exceleated like everyone had predicted. I'm sure many on this forum were surprised when they first heard about that (not saying that they first heard about it from me, but whenever they heard that, i'm sure many were surprised).

[dogf]

Here is a great letter on oil reserves by an investment letter guy. Well respected group Here

[clueless]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')sss.. let's keep it civilized boys. Calling an opposer a fool and a drop-out certainly does not strengthen your case. Let's just assume he's misguided.

[oil_rocks]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', ' ')Please provide links for supporting evidence, in future.

[clueless]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'a')nd as far as the arguments I am railing aginst, it is simply the many, many people on this forum who are predicting total societal colpase in the next 5 or 10 years. It shouldn't take you long searching this forum to spot the ones who fit this category.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', ' ') You seem to have constructed an easily demolished model of the peak oil world that has no bearing on reality, at all.

[smiley]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'n')ow, i still disagree with your conclusions smiley because i believe (yes its a guess, but an educated guess) that factors in the near future will cause all these calculations to be adjusted each year. (As they have been adjusted each year in the past).
1) Continuing to find new deposits
2) rising prices pressing down the demand more than today's scientists expected
3) New technologies allowing for more oil extracting than today's scientists are currently calculating
4) New forms of fuel coming on stronger than people expect.

[oil_rocks]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', 'W')hich is it Oil_rocks ? You have been all over the board on this one. I am having trouble following you. I though we were discussing peak oil being true or untrue ? Did I miss something ?

[dbruning]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ow these are beliefs and i am entitled to them. So far i have been right, because every year the projections for hitting this peak point gets pushed back a little and i am simply betting that the trend continues. seems like a pretty safe bet to me.

for those who are predicting we will see total global chaos due to diminishing oil supplys in the next 2, 5 or even 10 years, it simply isn't going to happen. There are too many variables in place all tracking in favor of the peak being pushed back further, and anyone who ignors all those factors is not looking at this subject reasonably.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', ' ') The second fatal flaw of the theory is that it assumes that demand will always increase, or at least will be higher than the production. in fact the entire theory falls apart if demand matches production, no matter where we are on the curve.

[oil_rocks]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dbruning', '[')Why do you fight so strongly to deny that entitlement to the people with a perspective that disagrees with yours?

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'a')nd again if someone says that once we hit the magical peak that production has to go down every year and there is no chance of finding a new depsoit, i again say no way.