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Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby clueless » Tue 30 Jan 2007, 15:46:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'h')ell of a lot more promising than anything you have to offer.


Oil_Rocks - better come to the rescue - Your compatriats are in need of assistance.

You started this mess...
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby Dreamtwister » Tue 30 Jan 2007, 16:20:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('128shot', 'h')ttp://www.netpublikationer.dk/um/6567/html/chapter12.htm


this would appear to show promise.


And how do you propose we harvest the nitrogen necessary to make the ammonia? A N2 generator, perhaps?

And I suppose the electricity needed to operate it will be generated by...hydrogen? *cough thermodynamics*

Then in order produce the ammonia, you need to use a Haber-Bosch furnace to pressurize and heat the components to 500 degrees C. More energy invested.

Oh, and how do you get the hydrogen back out of the ammonia again?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hen the substance is heated, the ammonia is released and can be used for fuel directly in a high temperature fuel cell or split into free non-hazardous nitrogen and hydrogen which can be fed into an ordinary fuel cell


It has to be heated? AGAIN? It's starting to sound less promising by the second. But how do you finally re-seperate the hydrogen and nitrogen? Oh look, it's our old friend electrolysis.

So what exactly is the EROEI on this process again? I'd have to run the numbers for sure, but I'm guessing somewhere around 1:4.5. Just so you know, that's bad.
The whole of human history is a refutation by experiment of the concept of "moral world order". - Friedrich Nietzsche
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby 128shot » Tue 30 Jan 2007, 16:54:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', 'Y')ou don't know what I have to offer. How about living in country whose goal is to give rather than consume ? Imagine how much better of a place it would be.

That is my solution - People start caring more for others and their well being as opposed to how much "I" can get.


way to account for human nature.


people are naturally, to lesser or greater degrees, selfish.


you can't expect that to change overnight.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby 128shot » Tue 30 Jan 2007, 17:08:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dreamtwister', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('128shot', 'h')ttp://www.netpublikationer.dk/um/6567/html/chapter12.htm


this would appear to show promise.


And how do you propose we harvest the nitrogen necessary to make the ammonia? A N2 generator, perhaps?

And I suppose the electricity needed to operate it will be generated by...hydrogen? *cough thermodynamics*

Then in order produce the ammonia, you need to use a Haber-Bosch furnace to pressurize and heat the components to 500 degrees C. More energy invested.

Oh, and how do you get the hydrogen back out of the ammonia again?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hen the substance is heated, the ammonia is released and can be used for fuel directly in a high temperature fuel cell or split into free non-hazardous nitrogen and hydrogen which can be fed into an ordinary fuel cell


It has to be heated? AGAIN? It's starting to sound less promising by the second. But how do you finally re-seperate the hydrogen and nitrogen? Oh look, it's our old friend electrolysis.

So what exactly is the EROEI on this process again? I'd have to run the numbers for sure, but I'm guessing somewhere around 1:4.5. Just so you know, that's bad.



Nuclear power.

and who says hydrogen is the only answer? who says hydrogen matters at all?

There are other options on the table. Among them: tidal power, electric cars, wind power, solar power, geothermal heating in homes, methane hydrates, hydroelectric (including power sources from rivers and micro-hydro), bio fuels (to what scale they can be effective, I am unsure) maglev travel between cities, and other possibilities I probably know nothing about.


I seriously don't see why everyone gives up so easily on this forum...

but alas, I cannot lie to you, I am spreading the word to be "weary" about peak oil. Even I have some preperations for the worst and needless to say I have built some connections with others who are like minded as I.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby oil_rocks » Tue 30 Jan 2007, 17:26:23

I think its fun to talk about peak oil crisis and hear what people have to say about it. I just happen to be one of those who correctly understand it to be a psychology and not a real science.

Every generation has had its share of doom-dayers who believe we are on the brink of total societal destruction. since the beginning on time, this has always been the case. What the peak oil crisis provides is a new twist on an old song-and-dance that interweaves a little modern day science and fancy names like hubbert curve and voila you have a new, even more believable reason to get excited.

I encourage people to make preparation like storing bottled water or other benign activities that won't make a difference anyways. just don't go out and quit your job or sell your house because u think the end of the world is imminent. 100 years from now the peak oil crisis theory will still be going strong; only a new generation of torchbearers will be carrying on the hysteria.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby UncoveringTruths » Tue 30 Jan 2007, 17:31:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('128shot', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dreamtwister', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('128shot', 'h')ttp://www.netpublikationer.dk/um/6567/html/chapter12.htm


this would appear to show promise.


And how do you propose we harvest the nitrogen necessary to make the ammonia? A N2 generator, perhaps?

And I suppose the electricity needed to operate it will be generated by...hydrogen? *cough thermodynamics*

Then in order produce the ammonia, you need to use a Haber-Bosch furnace to pressurize and heat the components to 500 degrees C. More energy invested.

Oh, and how do you get the hydrogen back out of the ammonia again?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hen the substance is heated, the ammonia is released and can be used for fuel directly in a high temperature fuel cell or split into free non-hazardous nitrogen and hydrogen which can be fed into an ordinary fuel cell


It has to be heated? AGAIN? It's starting to sound less promising by the second. But how do you finally re-seperate the hydrogen and nitrogen? Oh look, it's our old friend electrolysis.

So what exactly is the EROEI on this process again? I'd have to run the numbers for sure, but I'm guessing somewhere around 1:4.5. Just so you know, that's bad.



Nuclear power.

and who says hydrogen is the only answer? who says hydrogen matters at all?

There are other options on the table. Among them: tidal power, electric cars, wind power, solar power, geothermal heating in homes, methane hydrates, hydroelectric (including power sources from rivers and micro-hydro), bio fuels (to what scale they can be effective, I am unsure) maglev travel between cities, and other possibilities I probably know nothing about.


I seriously don't see why everyone gives up so easily on this forum...

but alas, I cannot lie to you, I am spreading the word to be "weary" about peak oil. Even I have some preperations for the worst and needless to say I have built some connections with others who are like minded as I.



We haven't given up; this territory (alternatives) has been covered numerous times on PO. Read up a little there's a neat feature called "search". We all are looking for the magic silver bullet so to speak that will solve all of our worries but the bullet must stand up to the grit factor. Give us some grit.

I have been watching these forums for several years now and every now and then we get folks like Oil_Rocks and 128 Shot debating the conclusions of this forum. Seems they come in here with delusions of grandeur that we got it all wrong, and there here to set things straight while saving us from our own educated conclusions.

It must be a form of denial?
It's a cold cold world when a man has to pawn his shoes.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby 128shot » Tue 30 Jan 2007, 17:32:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('UncoveringTruths', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('128shot', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dreamtwister', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('128shot', 'h')ttp://www.netpublikationer.dk/um/6567/html/chapter12.htm


this would appear to show promise.


And how do you propose we harvest the nitrogen necessary to make the ammonia? A N2 generator, perhaps?

And I suppose the electricity needed to operate it will be generated by...hydrogen? *cough thermodynamics*

Then in order produce the ammonia, you need to use a Haber-Bosch furnace to pressurize and heat the components to 500 degrees C. More energy invested.

Oh, and how do you get the hydrogen back out of the ammonia again?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hen the substance is heated, the ammonia is released and can be used for fuel directly in a high temperature fuel cell or split into free non-hazardous nitrogen and hydrogen which can be fed into an ordinary fuel cell


It has to be heated? AGAIN? It's starting to sound less promising by the second. But how do you finally re-seperate the hydrogen and nitrogen? Oh look, it's our old friend electrolysis.

So what exactly is the EROEI on this process again? I'd have to run the numbers for sure, but I'm guessing somewhere around 1:4.5. Just so you know, that's bad.



Nuclear power.

and who says hydrogen is the only answer? who says hydrogen matters at all?

There are other options on the table. Among them: tidal power, electric cars, wind power, solar power, geothermal heating in homes, methane hydrates, hydroelectric (including power sources from rivers and micro-hydro), bio fuels (to what scale they can be effective, I am unsure) maglev travel between cities, and other possibilities I probably know nothing about.


I seriously don't see why everyone gives up so easily on this forum...

but alas, I cannot lie to you, I am spreading the word to be "weary" about peak oil. Even I have some preperations for the worst and needless to say I have built some connections with others who are like minded as I.



We haven't given up; this territory (alternatives) has been covered numerous times on PO. Read up a little there's a neat feature called "search". We all are looking for the magic silver bullet so to speak that will solve all of our worries but the bullet must stand up to the grit factor. Give us some grit.

I have been watching these forums for several years now and every now and then we get folks like Oil_Rocks and 128 Shot debating the conclusions of this forum. Seems they come in here with delusions of grandeur that we got it all wrong, and there here to set things straight while saving us from our own educated conclusions.

It must be a form of denial?

Don't hate the playa hate the game :lol:


I haven't posted much on this forum untill recently, I am simply sick of all the doom and gloom around here. Really, thats what spurred this.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby TonyPrep » Tue 30 Jan 2007, 17:35:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'J')ust to clarify one point, i certainly do not expect it to go down in the next 10 years, or even the next 100 years. The point I was making is that the peak oil crisis theory is dependant on the assumption that the demand for oil consumption will always go up and we will never have any sort of replacement source of energy.
The hypothesis does assume that demand will rise, but it doesn't need to rise for the 100 years that you envisage it will. So another of your objections about the peak oil hypothesis goes out of the window. There aren't many analysts that project a peak in more than 60 years, so 100 years of rising demand will pretty much see peak being a problem, in all non-cornucopian scenarios.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'I') am merely stating that I can't predict the future, which seems to be a pretty safe bet on my part.
Then why state your predictions of the future as facts? This is what you did in the post I responded to (I'm referring to what you labelled as "FACT", not your predictions of 2017).$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'I') completely reject the theory that says we will hit a crisis point and then all of civilization will spiral down from there completely out of control. (I’ve stated my reasons why) If you look throughout all of history, you cannot find an example of that.
I'm not familiar with all of history but there have been at least two books, in recent years, that example the subject of collapse. All you've presented are beliefs that everything will be OK. Surely you realise that it is only a matter of time, on a finite earth, before we start hitting limits that can't be overcome? Of course, this doesn't mean that civilisation will then spiral down out of control; we could act sensibly over the crises and organise a soft landing to an idyllic sustainable lifestyle for 10 billion people. Personally, I don't think we will. You do, but that's your prerogative. I hope you're right, but I see no reason to suppose you will be.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'W')e were at the peak oil crisis point in the 70's, we were at it 15 years ago
No we weren't but it was certainly obvious, at that point (and I wish I'd understood it, then) that we were already dependent on a finite resource. Since then, the dependency has just got worse.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby gego » Tue 30 Jan 2007, 17:36:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', '
')
The difference between me an you an oil_rocks is :

If the future holds more then great. If it holds less, I will be prepared whereas you will be devestated. And furthermore, you and oil_rocks have no hard facts to base your thesis on, whereas my facts are indisputable.

You guys worship the god of technology - I say technology is a joke and without raw materials are useless.


People who are prepared to sustain themselves will not be as much a burden on the remnants of the collapsing system, hence others not prepared will be a little better off in their fight over the remaining crumbs.

Of course, it is likely that many of the oil_rocks of the world would seek, out of their desperation, to take by force what is not theirs during a dieoff for which they cannot or will not prepare.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby clueless » Tue 30 Jan 2007, 17:37:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') think its fun to talk about peak oil crisis and hear what people have to say about it. I just happen to be one of those who correctly understand it to be a psychology and not a real science.

Every generation has had its share of doom-dayers who believe we are on the brink of total societal destruction. since the beginning on time, this has always been the case. What the peak oil crisis provides is a new twist on an old song-and-dance that interweaves a little modern day science and fancy names like hubbert curve and voila you have a new, even more believable reason to get excited.

I encourage people to make preparation like storing bottled water or other benign activities that won't make a difference anyways. just don't go out and quit your job or sell your house because u think the end of the world is imminent. 100 years from now the peak oil crisis theory will still be going strong; only a new generation of torchbearers will be carrying on the hysteria.


Is it possible to have any type of logical discussion with you ? The last part of your statement defines your whole basis. You cannot prove your point so you set up a strawman and knock it over. I have heard no discussion on this forum encouraging people to $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 's')ell your house because u think the end of the world is imminent.
. So the best you can do is set up a strawman and knock it down. And besides - You have even forgot what your topic was when you started this $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')orry, No such thing as Peak Oil
.

Your argumentwas about Peak Oil and ended with $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 's')ell your house because u think the end of the world is imminent.
. You cannot even hold a train of thought.

I'll tell you what my friend end of the world or not, I will bet you discoveries will never again reach pre-1970 levels. In order to use oil you have to find it, that is something we can track even right now - And discoveries have not made any significant increase in the last five years.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby PrairieMule » Tue 30 Jan 2007, 17:40:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('128shot', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', 'I')n thirty years we may be able to retrofit, mass produce and store enough hydrogen to run a city with 100k people. AFter than we can retrofit the whole world !

WOW - Now that's pretty promising.



hell of a lot more promising than anything you have to offer.


That's the kicker, everything is promising but no one can really produce a answer. At least one that has the same energy return on energy invested as the black stuff.

Nuclear is a good alternative but to my knowledge it takes 10-15 to build Nuclear plant. Plus everyone is afraid of starring in The China Syndrome 2 or water table to be within 100 miles of a place like Yucca Mountain.

The problem with Biofuels goes back to EROEI with corn and most cattle producers are not to pleased with corn prices and yes Virginia they have lobbyists. Sugar seems to work better in Venuzuela but we are not to popular with Pres Chavez.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby 128shot » Tue 30 Jan 2007, 17:46:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrairieMule', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('128shot', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', 'I')n thirty years we may be able to retrofit, mass produce and store enough hydrogen to run a city with 100k people. AFter than we can retrofit the whole world !

WOW - Now that's pretty promising.



hell of a lot more promising than anything you have to offer.


That's the kicker, everything is promising but no one can really produce a answer. At least one that has the same energy return on energy invested as the black stuff.

Nuclear is a good alternative but to my knowledge it takes 10-15 to build Nuclear plant. Plus everyone is afraid of starring in The China Syndrome 2 or water table to be within 100 miles of a place like Yucca Mountain.

The problem with Biofuels goes back to EROEI with corn and most cattle producers are not to pleased with corn prices and yes Virginia they have lobbyists. Sugar seems to work better in Venuzuela but we are not to popular with Pres Chavez.


of course. it all bears down to a race against time, no matter your opinion on the matter. Peak oil is an indisputable geological fact.

in terms of the most short term realistic alternatives to the black stuff will be lovely and somewhat toxic methane hydrates.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby TonyPrep » Tue 30 Jan 2007, 17:49:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('128shot', 'I')ts about actually trying to solve problems. Actually wanting to solve problems. Its about hope.
128shot, I think you confuse realistic and negative. Is the problem actually solvable? Can we somehow come up with a solution that allows unfettered economic global growth for ever? If not, then why are we acting as though there is such a solution?
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby dogf » Tue 30 Jan 2007, 17:49:26

Everyone,

Isn't this thread becoming a waste of time? He has not spent time using his computer skills to research enough to accept there is a serious problem.
Good for him. Same thing as Uncle George who also didn't agree when you told him at the dinner table. There will be many. This one just happens to know how to use a browser.

Isn't it time we just stopped waisting our time and move on to another conversation?
Just wish him well.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby 128shot » Tue 30 Jan 2007, 17:55:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('128shot', 'I')ts about actually trying to solve problems. Actually wanting to solve problems. Its about hope.
128shot, I think you confuse realistic and negative. Is the problem actually solvable? Can we somehow come up with a solution that allows unfettered economic global growth for ever? If not, then why are we acting as though there is such a solution?



no, unfettered economic growth is not really an option. regardless of peak oil, there are other mineral resources that need to be preserved.

Thats part of the solution though, isn't it? A change in mind, a change in life style...
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby TonyPrep » Tue 30 Jan 2007, 18:13:54

oil_rocks,
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'I') just happen to be one of those who correctly understand it to be a psychology and not a real science.
And yet you've been unable to offer a single argument that shows you to be correct in your understanding. Peak oil is very very simple. Oil is a finite resource, no need for psychological arguments about that. Consequently, if it continues to be used, it will eventually cease to be extractable in meaningful quantities. Clearly, before that time, it will reach a maximum extraction rate. This is peak oil. The same will happen to any finite resource. Natural gas and coal are two other important finite resources, on which we're dependent. All will peak.

The question then becomes: can we find substitutes for declining finite resources, in order to continue economic growth? Many potentials have been examined by many people. As far as I can tell, nothing envisaged has the capability to substitute for oil, in the quantities and uses required. Even if there were such substitutes, a further question is: how long can economic growth continue? That is a much wider question and one you need to ask before you come up with further advice to others.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'I') encourage people to make preparation like storing bottled water or other benign activities that won't make a difference anyways.
Do you often advise people to do useless things?

I suggest a couple of sources of information:

http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/lectures/461

http://www.amazon.com/Limits-Growth-Don ... 193149858X
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby oil_rocks » Tue 30 Jan 2007, 18:16:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gego', 'O')f course, it is likely that many of the oil_rocks of the world would seek, out of their desperation, to take by force what is not theirs during a dieoff for which they cannot or will not prepare.


Gego, this quote shows you have a good understanding of human behavior. While i applaud those who are learning farm techniques as a way of being proactive, you better hope your doomsday scenarios do not play out. If you think for 1 second that the world will end up with a few "smart ones" living in luxury on their own farms, while the masses simply die away of starvation, then you are sadly mistaken. If only the human race was that civil.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby clueless » Tue 30 Jan 2007, 18:18:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')uclear is a good alternative but to my knowledge it takes 10-15 to build Nuclear plant. Plus everyone is afraid of starring in The China Syndrome 2 or water table to be within 100 miles of a place like Yucca Mountain.


They could be built much faster but all our Power Plants are built to spec. and have very few "Standard" resuable parts or designs.

That is also part of our "Capitalist System", which will come back to haunt us.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby gego » Tue 30 Jan 2007, 18:18:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', '
')

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gego', ' ')There is no question that individual oil fields do follow the Hubbert curve. Ultimately all oil fields logically will follow the Hubbert curve.

This is your other mistake. the hubbert curve is easy to understand and its easy to see how it works on a single field and its easy to say, "now just image the whole earth as a big field". makes sense, right? well no wrong. A single field has a known amount of oil and the cost of extracting it is the same for the first drop as for the last (relatively speaking). The size of the earth-field is not a finite size. This may be a hard concept for you to understand but its size is dependant on the will of the people and the technology developed to extract it. This means the size of the "reachable" oil changes based on the will of the people trying to reach it. its not a fixed size!


Do you understand the concept that the whole is equal to the sum of its parts? So how is it that you conclude the individual finite oil fields, discovered and undiscovered, become infinite when viewed as a whole. By you thinking there should never have been a peak in production in any of the countries where production has already peaked, because all that needed to be done is find more fields or drill deeper or inject more nitrogen or salt water within the borders of those countries. Do you think that the oil industry in the USA has simply chosen since 1971 to let domestic production fall?

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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby TonyPrep » Tue 30 Jan 2007, 18:25:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('128shot', 'u')nfettered economic growth is not really an option. regardless of peak oil, there are other mineral resources that need to be preserved.

Thats part of the solution though, isn't it? A change in mind, a change in life style...
We will certainly need a change of lifestyle. But it is not a solution, because it will, by definition, not allow current lifestyles to go on. It is adapting to the circumstances. People like oil_rocks don't want to adapt to circumstances because they find the idea unpalatable. You seemed to be suggesting that we try things that might be solutions (to continuing our lifestyles) because that's the only way to know for sure that they won't work. But I don't think a solution is possible and, from the quote above, neither do you. So there is no point in putting effort into non-solutions. We need to put effort into changing our lifestyles completely. And, if economic growth can't continue indefinitely, then some of that effort should be directed towards working out a new society that doesn't require economic growth. Knowing what we know about finite resources, to do anything else would be crazy. But then humans have always been a little crazy.

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