[clueless]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'a')s the price goes up, other, more expensive forms of energy will fill the void. also, as price goes up, it gives more incentive for companies to invest in better technology to get oil deposits we never knew were possible to get. you see. there really is no crisis at all.

the problem with all your theories is that you never factor in new technology for drilling. you never factor in new technology for fuel and you never factor in the human drive to make profits and keep an economy thriving. what a shame.

[TonyPrep]

oil_rocks, the main point to be aware of is that the earth is finite. Increasing numbers of people and/or increasing economic activity (also known as economic growth) requires increasing resources (apart from occasional efficiencies, but don't be sidetracked by that). At some point, even renewable resources peak, if growth in those resources continues.

The only way you can really doubt a peak in anything (without life as we know it changing radically) is to have a belief that we will colonise and mine other planets and other star systems. That would, of course, require faith.

All we know about where oil is found, and the signatures in oil, suggests a biotic origin for it, but even if the abiotic theory turns out to be true, it's clear that it is not produced in easily accessible places and rates that are useful long term. By the way, dinosaurs aren't a large constituent of biotic oil.

As for substitutes for oil, you should read up on the net energy of those alternatives and also remember that, as I've said, even renewable sources will have a peak.

Whether you think you will have to take account of earth's limits or not, it is absolutely certain that future generations will have to. But keeping your fingers crossed for yourself and your descendents is certainly one way of preparing for the inevitable.

[oil_rocks]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gego', 'O')n the issue of technology coming to the rescue, so far none of the known technologies has shown sufficient results.

[clueless]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his is the problem with your thinking. all of your predictions and calculations are based on the premise that NO new techologies will be invented in the future. I am simply betting that SOME new technologies will be invented at some point in the future. period. And all your rebuts are simply, "oh yeah, name one!". You are totally missing the point. It would be like someone predicting in 1800 that cross country transportation will make it possible to cross the country in less than a day, and then all of you saying, "no way, man! they've already tried many things to improve the horse and its never worked!"

[chukar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', '
')For example, can anyone tell me how much usable oil is in the arctic refuge? the answer is no. because under certain leadership there are 0 barrels of usuable oil because they would never allow drilling

[AirlinePilot]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', ' ')A single field has a known amount of oil and the cost of extracting it is the same for the first drop as for the last (relatively speaking). The size of the earth-field is not a finite size. This may be a hard concept for you to understand but its size is dependant on the will of the people and the technology developed to extract it. This means the size of the "reachable" oil changes based on the will of the people trying to reach it. its not a fixed size!

[oil_rocks]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', '
')You didn't adress my earlier comment - If "new technology" exists who is designing, building and fielding it ???

Answer the question please.

[clueless]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') did answer your question, you just missed the answer, or perhaps didn't like the answer. My point is that "new technology" may not exist today but if you are making calculations and drawing out projection based on the premise that NO new technologies will be discovered over the next 100 years, then you are leaving huge gaps in your science. I have never once seen a dooms day projection that takes into account "unknown future technologies" and without taking those into account, your actual results will not match your projections. period.

and for you to ask me to name the new technologies is absurd. just as absurd as it would have been to predict the modern day airplane in the year 1800. So just because i can't name a the new technology today does not mean that it won't be there tormorrow. I am just making my calculations based on 6000 years of civilization which demontrates that new technologies are discovered on a regular basis. For you to take the odds that no new technologies will ever be discovered puts you on the wrong side of history.

[clueless]

And there is no "New technology" in the sense you are using the term.

In 6000 years Mankind has only "invented" new ways of burning raw materials, and harnessing the energy.

I really would like to know what field you work in, or where you are gleaning your information.

[PrairieMule]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', '
')you see the demand for oil will never exceed the supply. period. "what??" you may be asking. "this is shocking for us to hear". "How can it be that all of us have been wrong this entire time??"

its simple. as the supply diminishes, the price will naturally go up, which will reduce the demand. Supply and demand will always be in perfect harmony and only the price will change. We will never run out!!!

[dbruning]

As new and better techniques are developed for holding ones breath, the amount of oxygen will be practically unlimited.

Indeed, these new technologies will make our supply of Oxygen on this planet inexhaustible.

And of course, if it looks like we may be running low on Oxygen......


...we'll just learn how to "Hold Longer."

Good to know, huh?

[PrairieMule]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dbruning', 'A')s new and better techniques are developed for holding ones breath, the amount of oxygen will be practically unlimited.

Indeed, these new technologies will make our supply of Oxygen on this planet inexhaustible.

And of course, if it looks like we may be running low on Oxygen......


...we'll just learn how to "Hold Longer."

Good to know, huh?

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'i')f you are making calculations and drawing out projection based on the premise that NO new technologies will be discovered over the next 100 years, then you are leaving huge gaps in your science.

[oil_rocks]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', 'I') really would like to know what field you work in, or where you are gleaning your information.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', '1')) FACT: the hubbert curve applies to a fixed amount of resource pool and does not tie the amount of resource attainable to the will of the people trying to extract it.

[Battle_Scarred_Galactico]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', 'I') really would like to know what field you work in, or where you are gleaning your information.

[clueless]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'m a computer programmer by trade. understanding global economies is just a hobby.

[PrairieMule]

I'd also like to add even "if" the bugs were worked out on a miracle technology(hydrogen) or a massive ramp up more established ones(solar, wind, hydro, nuclear) we neither have the time nor infrastructure to change within the next 5-10 years.

[clueless]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrairieMule', 'I')'d also like to add even "if" the bugs were worked out on a miracle technology(hydrogen) or a massive ramp up more established ones(solar, wind, hydro, nuclear) we neither have the time nor infrastructure to change within the next 5-10 years.

[oil_rocks]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')old on, didn't you say oil consumption will go down?