[oil_rocks]

{Good lord! moved to Open Forum by MQ]


Hi all,
I have read quite a bit about the peak oil theory have found it to be highly flawed in many regards. Its an interesting theory, but the truth is, it simply isn't based on facts, but instead politics.

People who believe in this theory basically see oil extraction as a giant Easter egg hunt and that some day we will wake up to realize all the Easter eggs have all been found. Here are my problems with this method of thinking. perhaps someone can help shed some light on it:

Fatal flaws in the peak oil crisis theory:

1) The theory assumes oil is not a renewable resource. Some believe it is a product of the dinosaurs, but there is no scientific evidence of this. Many scientists believe it is a naturally producing byproduct of the earth's crust. the jury is still out on this and anyone who closes their mind to all possibilities here is not a true scientist.

2) The theory assumes that technology for oil drilling will not improve. Even if we did extract all known oil deposits there's no reason why technology could not be improved to simply drill deeper. Now you have a whole new level of oil deposits to tap into. In theory there would be a nearly limitless amount of oil, because you could always create technology to drill just a little deeper.

3) The theory assumes we are drilling it as fast as we can. The entire oil crisis theory is based on the idea that a lack of oil will force us to slow down production, as if every oil well it simply pumping out at 100% and we just sit and hope we don't run out. The reality is that OPEC and other companies routinely cut back their output for various reasons. They are no where near 100% output.

4) The theory assumes that oil demand will always go up. Says who? why do you make such ridiculous assumptions? Technology comes and goes. did demand for the 8-track tape go up for ever? how about the VCR? sorry, but new forms of energy will soon replace oil and the entire debate will be relegated to the history books.

so all of you can rest easy and not worry so much about things of which you have no control.

[Cobra_Strike]

Ahhh, you have reached the denial phase...very good

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'H')i all,
I have read quite a bit about the peak oil theory have found it to be highly flawed in many regards. Its an interesting theory, but the truth is, it simply isn't based on facts, but instead politics.

People who believe in this theory basically see oil extraction as a giant Easter egg hunt and that some day we will wake up to realize all the Easter eggs have all been found. Here are my problems with this method of thinking. perhaps someone can help shed some light on it:

Fatal flaws in the peak oil crisis theory:

1) The theory assumes oil is not a renewable resource. Some believe it is a product of the dinosaurs, but there is no scientific evidence of this. Many scientists believe it is a naturally producing byproduct of the earth's crust. the jury is still out on this and anyone who closes their mind to all possibilities here is not a true scientist.

[Dreamtwister]

JohnDenver, is that you?

[TorrKing]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'H')i all,
I have read quite a bit about the peak oil theory have found it to be highly flawed in many regards. Its an interesting theory, but the truth is, it simply isn't based on facts, but instead politics.

People who believe in this theory basically see oil extraction as a giant Easter egg hunt and that some day we will wake up to realize all the Easter eggs have all been found. Here are my problems with this method of thinking. perhaps someone can help shed some light on it:

Fatal flaws in the peak oil crisis theory:

1) The theory assumes oil is not a renewable resource. Some believe it is a product of the dinosaurs, but there is no scientific evidence of this. Many scientists believe it is a naturally producing byproduct of the earth's crust. the jury is still out on this and anyone who closes their mind to all possibilities here is not a true scientist.

2) The theory assumes that technology for oil drilling will not improve. Even if we did extract all known oil deposits there's no reason why technology could not be improved to simply drill deeper. Now you have a whole new level of oil deposits to tap into. In theory there would be a nearly limitless amount of oil, because you could always create technology to drill just a little deeper.

3) The theory assumes we are drilling it as fast as we can. The entire oil crisis theory is based on the idea that a lack of oil will force us to slow down production, as if every oil well it simply pumping out at 100% and we just sit and hope we don't run out. The reality is that OPEC and other companies routinely cut back their output for various reasons. They are no where near 100% output.

4) The theory assumes that oil demand will always go up. Says who? why do you make such ridiculous assumptions? Technology comes and goes. did demand for the 8-track tape go up for ever? how about the VCR? sorry, but new forms of energy will soon replace oil and the entire debate will be relegated to the history books.

so all of you can rest easy and not worry so much about things of which you have no control.

[lateStarter]

Thanks for the laugh! This has to be one of the funniest things I have read in a long time...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '2')) The theory assumes that technology for oil drilling will not improve. Even if we did extract all known oil deposits there's no reason why technology could not be improved to simply drill deeper. Now you have a whole new level of oil deposits to tap into. In theory there would be a nearly limitless amount of oil, because you could always create technology to drill just a little deeper.

[oil_rocks]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ho told you that?

[gego]

I like to see thinking such as this; it sort of diminishes the crowd at the entrance to the lifeboats.

Just like a rectum, an opinion is something that we all have.

If we do experience peak oil, and more importantly the trend in EROEI continues, then some of us who think we understand this and the consequences, and have made preparations will be in a relatively better position.

If peak oil is our mass delusion and if available energy continues to increase rather than decrease, then those subscribing to this theory will have been incorrect in our opinions. We will have spent some time and personal energy and wealth in an inappropriate manner in preparation for something that never happens; sort of like paying an insurance premium for an improbable accident.

Most all the arguments have been posted multiple times, so it is not necessary to repeat those here.

Pick your path and see where it takes you.

[RonMN]

And they say there wont be a rapid die-off

[oil_rocks]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f we do experience peak oil, and more importantly the trend in EROEI continues, then some of us who think we understand this and the consequences, and have made preparations will be in a relatively better position

[jeezlouise]

Oh, boy... where to begin?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', '2')) The theory assumes that technology for oil drilling will not improve. Even if we did extract all known oil deposits there's no reason why technology could not be improved to simply drill deeper. Now you have a whole new level of oil deposits to tap into. In theory there would be a nearly limitless amount of oil, because you could always create technology to drill just a little deeper.

[dinopello]

This thread should have stopped after the first response which was kind of clever. But, anyway

1) there is a whole thread devoted to this in the "Welcome" forum (I wonder why?)

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic7333.html

2, 3) Drill deeper, drill faster ? Of Course!

4) Something else will come along - then screw 1,2,3 we don't need to worry about them either.

One thing I agree with is that worry (and panic) are two things that aren't very productive, so no point in them.

[jeezlouise]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', '
')The reality is... even if you guys are right about running out of oil

[lateStarter]

gego said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f peak oil is our mass delusion and if available energy continues to increase rather than decrease, then those subscribing to this theory will have been incorrect in our opinions. We will have spent some time and personal energy and wealth in an inappropriate manner in preparation for something that never happens; sort of like paying an insurance premium for an improbable accident.

[Dreamtwister]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'o')pec has been cutting millions of barrels a day for the past 3 months.

[Niagara]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'H')i all,
I have read quite a bit about blah blah blah....

[oil_rocks]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he more likely reason is that the sludge they are pumping isn't selling

[gego]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', '
')
you are joking right? this made me laugh when i read it. exactly what preparations have you made? stored some bottled water? Your thoery predicts arrageddon and a total end to the human race. what preparations could you possibly do for that.

[oil_rocks]

Living on a farm is a great decision in any age. But for others who might be planning by storing up bottled water. Here are some facts for you:

The saudi oil fields contain 261.9 B barrels of oil. They are currently extracting at a rate of 3.6 B barrels per year. If i have done my math right, then that would be about 72 years before that field runs dry. If you add in other known, but not tapped reserves (canada, alaska, russia, gulf of mexico, pacific ocean etc) we could probably get another 50 years of oil. Now lets add in unknown oil deposits that will inevidably be found over the next 50 years. Plus lets add in the fact that new technology developed over the next 50 years will likely make extremely deep drilling possible at a relatively low price. We are now up to about 220 years.

you may say, "hey wait a minute! what about increased demand as countries continue to get more industrialized!!"

ok, yes that's true, but lets also factor in the fact that new sources of energy will be replacing some of our oil demand in the future. Plus as reserves really do start getting lower, expect the price to go up higher which will force demand down even lower. So 100 years from now when cars are getting 200 miles per gallon and half of them are running on ethanol, i expect our demand for oil will actually be much lower than it is today.

So as a final calculation, i expect to see us hit our peak oil crisis in about 400 years and finally run out of oil in about 730 years. +- 100 years.

I'm not sure your stores of bottled water are going to be very useful at that time.

[Chaparral]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'e')verythings gonna be OoOokay!