[DantesPeak]

Pickens not doing as badly as you might expect (or even I expected):

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')nergy Bull Keeps the Faith Despite Oil's Big Drop,
Boone Pickens Believes His Bets Will Pay Off
By ANN DAVIS and GREGORY ZUCKERMAN
January 17, 2007

The sharp drop in crude-oil prices is goring T. Boone Pickens, one of the biggest bulls in the energy market.

Mr. Pickens has seen his main investment vehicle, a $2 billion hedge fund fall about 6% so far this year, compared with a gain of 1% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

But Mr. Pickens remains bullish.

"I've been surprised at how severe the decline was," Mr. Pickens said in an interview. "Consequently, I'm not ready to give up." He added that he is "not going to back off" an earlier prediction that oil will average $70 a barrel in 2007. If oil does fall below $50, the market won't let it sink below $48, he contends.

Mr. Pickens declined to address market rumors that he has been trimming some of his energy positions in recent weeks. "Do we like the market going down? No," he said. "Are we having problems [at the firm]? No."

Mr. Pickens conceded that, in addition to warm winter weather that has hurt demand, "there was a little more oil around than I thought there was."

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', ' ')This clearly shows that TBTB have adequate controls for milking and driving out the long term speculators in commodities.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse2', 'A')rticle on stock manipulation.

Stock Manipulation

Now, I know we're talking about future's here, but same rules may apply.

[mmasters]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '.')..

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '.')..

[TreebeardsUncle]

Basically, the speculators are bailing out, because they have not been making as much as fast as they had expected earlier. Politics, and the weather have conspired against a sustained elevation in oil prices. A mini-glut due to rising production from a number of sources and slackening in growth is also on its way. Expect peak-mediated effects to become prominent in the middle of the next decade.
g

[evilgenius]

Not withstanding the weather, several balls are in the air at once. The Chinese want higher interest rates on the treasuries they are being asked to buy. Goldman has re-allocated (if you can't see the connection let's just say, the American consumer cannot afford both higher rates and higher gas prices). Europe looks like it is going to continue to raise interest rates. The war premium is melting, traders can see that surge or no surge the US is preparing for withdrawal. Bush only has two years left and many don't think he can do much in that time. A lot of people think the worst thing he can do is stay embroiled at pretty much the same level and just hand the whole thing over to Hilary come '08.

I think some are even saying that Iraq's oil will in fact be added within a few years to the daily world total and that will in fact be something.

Don't count on it. There is a substantial block affiliated with Russia that wants extremely high crude prices and world shortage to be the dominant paradigm all the way through the end. They have a vested interest in preventing the US from overproducing in Iraq, Saudi and Kuwait. Their chosen economic model succeeds better for them the higher and tigher the oil price and supply. They know it won't take much to burst the US bubble.

Paulson, Bernanke, Cheney, Baker and Bush (both of them) need a pretty well timed series of events to happen in order to land their burning jumbo jet. First they have to kill housing by raising rates when all of the TV economists say they shouldn't. That is the only way to protect the dollar in the short term. They can't risk engendering inflation until they can be certain that no matter what the dollar is worth the world will still use it as the major reserve currency. That is where even temporarily being able to over produce comes in. They can wreak absolute havoc on the euro and ruble bourses by over producing, even if they can't keep it up for more than spurts. The markets will run from that possibility and seek the safety of the dollar. Once that happens look out below because it will then be time to hyper-inflate. The rich will go whoring like never before (selling off all of the real estate that all those poor schmucks weren't able to make the payments on) to foreign interests. The new bankruptcy laws weren't written for nothing, you know.

Trouble is, if the Russian block succeeds in derailing the plan, the US will be looking at severe deflation instead of hyper-inflation. That will happen because the only way to protect the dollar in the absence of the petro-dollar is to raise interest rates sky high.

[shortonoil]

evilgenius said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')rouble is, if the Russian block succeeds in derailing the plan, the US will be looking at severe deflation instead of hyper-inflation. That will happen because the only way to protect the dollar in the absence of the petro-dollar is to raise interest rates sky high.

[nth]

Hillary Clinton will never be President. There is no way US voters will vote for a liberal woman no matter how much she claims she have changed.

[evilgenius]

I only say Hilary because she is the front runner. The Dems have a history of TPTB in the party picking the nominee, through various levels of support or non-support. Right now the Dem elite seem poised to back Hilary if she can prove she can handle Obama. Whatever, unless there proves to be a better Repugnican, or Bush declares empire, the way looks clear for a Dem.

China is precisely the problem for the Russian block as well. Unless the Russians can pull off stopping the US convincingly and with as few ties back to them as possible they will have to deal with China. So, the only way the Russians are going to be able to stop the US ambition in the ME is to use the Iranian proxy. They have to make a US defeat look like it was at the hands of the Iranians and not because they engineered it. Now, in that context, don't we have to revisit the supposed mad ravings of Amadinajad (sic).

The only way that Russian soldiers, which are always poised to move into the ME are actually going to wind up there is if they can declare that they are filling a power vacuum. I don't believe that the Russians need to go that far, but it doesn't matter what I think so much as what the Russians determine is required. In other words it probably isn't necessary for the Russians to support Iranian possession of tactical nukes. However, if it is necessary the US military is at risk allowing itself to become baited into a confrontation with Iran.

Anyway I am getting ahead of myself. That stuff is for another thread.

[IslandCrow]

As weather was one factor that has been reported in leading to lower prices I have a question: Is the current cold spell in the US cold and long enough to raise oil prices?

BBC: Harsh winter weather is still gripping large parts of the US, leaving at least 50 people dead and hundreds of thousands without power.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '.')..

[Revi]

I think that even though Punksatawny Phil didn't see his shadow and we may have an early winter, we'll have all kinds of driving going on as soon as it warms up. That'll drive the price up a bit. We'll see what happens in the next few months. It could get ugly. Or it could go back to $40 and happy days are here again. Last year's savings rate was negative, as was 2005. The last two years when that happened were in 1932 and 1933. Everyone is driving around in a car that's about 3 times bigger than what they need and lives in a Mc Mansion that's eating heating oil right now. They are being bled to death by the American Dream. They aren't going to be able to unload those monstrosities before this summer, so they'll be wanting more oil and the market will be providing less.

I have a feeling that the price will hover around $60 for the rest of the winter and early spring and creep steadily up all summer. The idea is to bleed the yahoos until they scream, then let up a bit and give it to them again until they cry uncle (Sam). They'll keep buying Avalanches, Extinctions, Denials and Bummers whenever the let up comes, and then get pinched when fuel goes back up.

It's sad, but they don't get it. One of my colleagues just got a new Yukon XL. She took up 4 parking spaces, and I asked her to take up only two. She moved a little. She can't afford the thing, but she's got it. This brief respite from rising prices has given people the wrong signal.