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Recession or Depression (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Depression 2007?

Unread postby TommyJefferson » Sun 31 Dec 2006, 13:58:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('o2ny', 'B')ecause he dares point out the fact that people on this board have been predicting every imaginable scenario of doom ... why not spend a year living in a world that is not about to fall apart in a week?


Ouch!

Good advice o2ny.

I am totally prepared for Zombie Take-over. I have guns, MRE's, gold, seeds, indoctrinated kids, and all that. I still take a vacation from it on a regular basis. I agree with you that everyone should.

Follow the advice of my esteemed Spiritual Leader and fellow libertarian Doug Stanhope http://www.dougstanhope.com/audio.html

"Excess in Moderation"

Don't stupify yourself with a six-pack of Bud Lite every Friday night and hope for a BJ from the old lady at bedtime.

Work hard and save up so you can snort cocaine off the clevage of a $1000 per hour Pamela Anderson looking hooker at the Hilton until your nose bleeds a couple of times a year.

Not every weekend, just occasionally. Put down the 'carbon saving' a few times a year and go nuts.
Conform . Consume . Obey .
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Re: Depression 2007?

Unread postby DantesPeak » Sun 31 Dec 2006, 14:36:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('o2ny', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('armegeddon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Stratovarius', 'S')yrac sounds like a noob troll.

You can leave now.


agree. Biggest loser on here


On a poll on another thread "trader's corner", over 50% predicted a price of oil over $80 a barrel for 12/29... 80% predicted $70 or over. Does that tell you something? Way skewed on the pessimistic side. Maybe some of these posters should just take a year off from PO. A little vacation from the pathological worry mongering. How about getting some vitamin D, some Zoloft, a bottle of scotch and maybe some good porn and set it on cruise control. The doomsdays will be there waiting for you in '08... why not spend a year living in a world that is not about to fall apart in a week? How about some sunshine, bluebirds and yoga for a year?


Umm, the price of oil did pass $80 on the futures market last summer. I would say that was a damn good guess to predict $80 oil when it was trading for $60 at the beginning of 2006. I didn't see th epirce at any time going to $50 or even $40 as some cornucopians predicted.

Predicting prices to match specific dates is extremely difficult.
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Re: Depression 2007?

Unread postby NEOPO » Sun 31 Dec 2006, 15:32:53

Most of these people would sell the world if given half a chance.
Narrow minded, short sighted, greedy, rationalized bullshit and YOU know who YOU are!!! 8)

"Look at my portfolio as proof of my peak oil conviction"
muah ahahah
I guess Jevon's paradox is nothing but a bedtime story for some.

"I am prepared so let's PARTY!"
"I am ignorant of the fact that people (children,women,men) are dying and/or enslaved to maintain my 1st world lifestyle"
"Climate change has yet to be proven!"
"lighten up!"

Most of us were "lucky" enough to miss the last depression.
Some of us have lived with or at least spoken with people who lived the hard times.
It is clear that most with first hand experience are opposed to the idealogy of most without this experience.

This time WILL be different and perhaps FAR WORSE yet for now I will side with what I have learned from those with experience in the matter.

Great Depression

It should be wonderful fun!
The last time this occurred the churches and movie theatres were running flat out!
Optimistic Bullshit will sell sell sell!!! :o

What are you people doing here!!!
Go write some books and sell sell sell!!
Do your part to prop up the illusion of prosperity and ownership!
GO! FIGHT! WIN! ;-)

"what mankind knows can in no way compare to that which mankind knows not"
It is easier to enslave a people that wish to remain free then it is to free a people who wish to remain enslaved.
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Re: Depression 2007?

Unread postby magician » Sun 31 Dec 2006, 15:58:24

um yeah. lets just invest in some alternative energy. and by god we can recycle and carpool. i just got energy saving bulbs! look honey my walmart stock went up last month. so much better and more comfortable than facing reality.

seriously. it seems like people think doomers like myself are cowards or freightened of reality. first of all most dont look at the big picture. be it economics, politics, human consciousness evolution, issues of biological overshoot, ect. they tend to watch cable news (even if just to "balance it out") the biggest problem with statements about doomerism being a cop out is the information gap between doomers and noobs. you know what if you dont get it, then go buy your shares, wear your noose tie and sweatshop wingtips and go on pretending this isnt a big deal. but dont hang out here to validate your insecurity by trolling us about being overly doomerish. some of us want to see global economics disentegrate. i mean if the federal reserve isnt an international ponzi scheme then what is? our government is stripping away our liberties as fast as a hooker picks up a dollar on the pavement. american politics is a theatre masking corperatism, fascism, and systematic abuse of the worlds people. the way of life in weastern societies is fucked, unhealthy, unethical, and parasitic on human life (not to mention what our diet does to our dna), animal life, natural resources, the environment. they see the globalism, overpop, parasitic economic systems, corrupt governments, ect of now as fucked up and dont want this to continue. humanity has become "a virus with shoes" and has ceased to evolve.

evolution of consciousness must continue or we will snuff out. change is needed. not reform, re-building. cold boot this machine not some process manager shit. just because you cant immagine anything else other than your way of life doesent mean ive lost hope by betting on a collapse. i put my money where my mouth is. syrac818 i want your way of life to become economically unviable. apocalypse for one man is oppurtunity for another. I WANT THE COLLAPSE. i want the hard landing. the sooner the better before the rest of the distopian literature becomes prophetic. so if i want this to happen. then shouldent i create a good life for myself with an eye towards HOPEING this shit collapses.

HOW is that hiding out or giving up?

back on tack though, silver has been doing good this year.
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Re: Depression 2007?

Unread postby JustinFrankl » Sun 31 Dec 2006, 15:59:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TommyJefferson', 'F')ollow the advice of my esteemed Spiritual Leader and fellow libertarian Doug Stanhope http://www.dougstanhope.com/audio.html

"Excess in Moderation"

Don't stupify yourself with a six-pack of Bud Lite every Friday night and hope for a BJ from the old lady at bedtime.

Work hard and save up so you can snort cocaine off the clevage of a $1000 per hour Pamela Anderson looking hooker at the Hilton until your nose bleeds a couple of times a year.

He, along with Bill Hicks, had figured out many relevant "truths" that are disguised as comedy. Doug's a riot, I want to see him on stage the next time he's around.
"We have seen the enemy, and he is us." -- Walt Kelly
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Re: Depression 2007?

Unread postby Jellric » Sun 31 Dec 2006, 18:18:55

I don't know about a depression, but a recession certainly seems to be in the cards for the coming year. The yield curve has inverted which is a reliable indicator of a recession in the proceeding twelve months.

Economic growth slowed this year from 5.6 percent in the first quarter of 2006 to 2.6% in the second quarter and only 2% in the third. So the trend is clear.
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Re: Depression 2007?

Unread postby Loki » Sun 31 Dec 2006, 18:58:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'T')his is a good point. During the dirty thirties the stock market was remarkably endurable. As a matter of fact, the papers of the time didn't cover the grinding hard times people were enduring. The media never used the term "depression" and portrayed the continuity of rotten economic news without context. As a result the bad news came across as a series of unfortunate random events, devoid of an overall pattern.

I don't know about the financial papers, but the regular dailies in my area certainly used the term depression in the 1930s. I've read the articles myself straight from the microfilm. But I don't mean to nitpick. Your overall point is correct, and I certainly don't expect an official announcement when the next major recession/depression hits.

And anyone who thinks there will never be another recession/depression is either blissfully ignorant of history and/or belongs in a looney bin (or teaching in a university economics department). But whether it will start tomorrow or in 30 years, I have no idea. Magic 8-ball says "Reply hazy, try again."

I've heard the difference between a recession and depression is this: when your neighbor gets laid off it's a recession, when you get laid off it's a depression. I just got laid off last week, so for me, the depression has already arrived.
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Re: Depression 2007?

Unread postby threadbear » Mon 01 Jan 2007, 16:07:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'T')his is a good point. During the dirty thirties the stock market was remarkably endurable. As a matter of fact, the papers of the time didn't cover the grinding hard times people were enduring. The media never used the term "depression" and portrayed the continuity of rotten economic news without context. As a result the bad news came across as a series of unfortunate random events, devoid of an overall pattern.

I don't know about the financial papers, but the regular dailies in my area certainly used the term depression in the 1930s. I've read the articles myself straight from the microfilm. But I don't mean to nitpick. Your overall point is correct, and I certainly don't expect an official announcement when the next major recession/depression hits.

And anyone who thinks there will never be another recession/depression is either blissfully ignorant of history and/or belongs in a looney bin (or teaching in a university economics department). But whether it will start tomorrow or in 30 years, I have no idea. Magic 8-ball says "Reply hazy, try again."

I've heard the difference between a recession and depression is this: when your neighbor gets laid off it's a recession, when you get laid off it's a depression. I just got laid off last week, so for me, the depression has already arrived.


Loki, Anecdotal testimony in Studs Terkel's book on the Depression, supports the idea that mainstream media didn't use the term "depression". Perhaps it was more the newspapers of record, like New York times, W.Street Journal, that neglected to use the proper term--Depression. Perhaps, as you describe, local media was more likely to use the term and describe what was actually going on in the average person's life.
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Re: Depression 2007?

Unread postby ohanian » Mon 01 Jan 2007, 17:10:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RonMN', 'I') read a book called "The Comming Economic Earthquake" copywrited in 1991.


You are asking us to put our trust in a book whose main prediction (Economic Earthquake) did not come true for 16 years!!!

Wow! I'm going to write a new book called "The Coming Heat Death of the Universe."
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Re: Depression 2007?

Unread postby RonMN » Mon 01 Jan 2007, 20:59:15

The point of quoting a 16 YO book (as I stated in my original post) is that this is the way of things with ALL FIAT CURRIENCIES...in all of history.

And some major warning signs that were pointed out in this 16 YO book are happening now.

May I suggest you actually read a post before slamming it?
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Re: Depression 2007?

Unread postby DantesPeak » Mon 01 Jan 2007, 22:01:33

Prior to 1930, the term depression was not widely used. In fact, depression was meant as first to be a minor downturn in the economy. Only later was there general agreement that the term depression meant something worse than a recession.

Therefore you might not find many references to a depression in the first years of the great 30s depression.
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Re: Depression 2007?

Unread postby mattduke » Tue 02 Jan 2007, 02:11:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RonMN', 'T')he point of quoting a 16 YO book (as I stated in my original post) is that this is the way of things with ALL FIAT CURRIENCIES...in all of history.


Here is the classic "Fiat Money Inflation In France". It begins, "Early in the year 1789 the French nation found itself in deep financial embarassment: there was a heavy debt and a serious deficit." Copyright 1895.

Fiat Money Inflation In France PDF
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Re: Depression 2007?

Unread postby SeasonOfPain » Tue 02 Jan 2007, 13:40:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'P')rior to 1930, the term depression was not widely used. In fact, depression was meant as first to be a minor downturn in the economy. Only later was there general agreement that the term depression meant something worse than a recession.

Exactly. In fact, TPTB at the time purposefully encouraged labeling it a "depression" instead of a "recession" mainly because of the more negative associations of the latter term at that point.

I fully expect that our current economic/government/press corpse "leaders" will encourage us to think of what's coming as a "recession" (or more likely a "temporary subdual in market activity"). Whatever they call it, they'll undoubtedly claim we're "just around the corner from a full economic recovery" all the way to the bottom.
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Re: Depression 2007?

Unread postby RonMN » Wed 17 Jan 2007, 15:46:02

Ownit Mortgage Files For Bankruptcy


2007 Very Great Depression

Quote:
PUBLIC ANNOUNCEMENT - According to the LEAP/E2020 team, the year 2007 will witness the sliding of the US into the « Very Great Depression », i.e., the rare historical conjunction of a severe economic depression, a strategic collapse and a major political and social internal crisis, at the centre of the phase of impact of the global systemic crisis...

Housing crisis, financial crisis, economic crisis, trade war, military escalation and political crisis...
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Re: Depression 2007?

Unread postby mmasters » Wed 17 Jan 2007, 16:05:04

Global recession initially then quite potentially a global depression to follow. I'd imagine the media will revolt againt the recession propaganda when things get bad enough, just like what happened in New Orleans.
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Re: Depression 2007?

Unread postby seahorse2 » Wed 17 Jan 2007, 17:45:53

Leap/E2020 are a bunch of cooks. They've been making crisis predictions for a long time. Maybe one day, they will be right. Check out this article from last year predicting a stock collapse.

Leap 2020
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Re: Depression 2007?

Unread postby threadbear » Wed 17 Jan 2007, 18:18:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse2', 'L')eap/E2020 are a bunch of cooks.

Leap 2020


What better group to tell us how the cookie crumbles
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Re: Depression 2007?

Unread postby kathaksung » Wed 24 Jan 2007, 17:35:46

The Inside Group has prepared one trap for you.

461. Dollar, the Achilles' heel of the US (1/15/07)

What motivates Bush government so crazy to start a war on Iran? It is the dollar. Because the unrestrained spending, there is a great amount of dollar held by foreign countries, mainly by Japan, China and OPEC. These countries, mostly are "responsible" countries who know the disastrous result if they dump the dollar.
But there is another country: Iran. Iran exports oil. If it changes the oil trading currency from dollar to Euro, then it will hurt US economy significantly. And Iran decides to do so. That's why the Inside group is in panic. Though the flag to war with Iran is "nuclear proliferation", "support Iraq Shiite militias", the real reason is the dollar. But to start a war because others refusing to use your currency as trading method is not a justification, so Bush's war machine tries to find other excuse.

Re: Iran scraps Dollar, takes on Euro
Mon. 18 Dec 2006
Iran Focus

Tehran, Iran, Dec. 18 – Iran's central bank will begin to use the euro for foreign transactions, replacing the long-established dollar system, government spokesman Gholam-Hossein Elham told reporters during his weekly press conference on Monday.

http://www.iranfocus.com/modules/news/a ... oryid=9533

Then on 12/30, there was an interesting news:

Quote, "U.S. TREASURY SECRETARY ARRESTED IN GERMANY
PAULSON AND CHENEY SUBPOENAED BY TRIBUNAL
Saturday 30 December 2006 20:05

U.S. TREASURY SECRETARY SEIZED AND BROUGHT BEFORE 'AD HOC' TRIBUNAL IN GERMANY ON A SUBPOENA HANDED OUT BY THE INTERNATIONAL COURT OF JUSTICE [OR 'WORLD COURT'] ON CHARGES OF MONEY-LAUNDERING, NON-PAYMENT OF THE WANTA $4.5 TRILLION AND FOR MISAPPROPRIATION AND/OR DIVERSION OF COLOSSAL $ SUMS.

...........

EUROPEAN NATIONAL CURRENCY REVIVAL GATHERS SPEED

One crucial by-product of this crisis, too, is that, as was exclusively reported in our previous posting, both France and Germany have started distributing pre-stored national banknotes (denominated in French francs and deutschemarks) to their respective central banks and leading commercial banks.

http://www.worldreports.org/news/38_pau ... d_cheney_s

Though several days later, there was other news that Paulson would meet the Treasury Minister of Japan in January which indirectly denied the news of his arrest, I still believe this was, or once had been a part of the December plot.

Notice the time of Paulson's arrest: 12/30. The bombing in US was planned in the end of December. At same time Saddam was hanged - a planned justification for Iraq civil war.

Read the news of Paulson's arrest. You will find the real meaning of this incident - a planned collapse of Euro. According to the news, the collapse of the WANTA fund will lead to the collapse of Euro. The events astonished me was that French, German had prepared to replace the Euro with their original currency: Franc and Mark.
I think if the December plot had succeeded, the Great Mall would have been bombed.(and somewhere else in US and UK been bombed as well. ) There would have been a civil war in Iraq followed the execution of Saddam. And there would have been the collapse of Euro following the arrest of Paulson. Iran would have to stay on Dollar because the money they turned on then worth nothing.

I also think the US economy was on a volcano. There are two big bubbles: the housing market and stock market. The Inside group will find excuse to create the incident such like WANTA, Euro collapse, Iraq civil war or Iran war. To blame the economic crisis to other's fault not their's.

There will be big change ahead: war and economic crisis. The victim will always be the ordinary people. They will lose money and lives.
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Re: Depression 2007?

Unread postby MrBill » Thu 25 Jan 2007, 11:41:10

kathaksung wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hen on 12/30, there was an interesting news:

Quote, "U.S. TREASURY SECRETARY ARRESTED IN GERMANY
PAULSON AND CHENEY SUBPOENAED BY TRIBUNAL
Saturday 30 December 2006 20:05



PAULSON AND CHENEY SUBPOENAED BY TRIBUNAL

I think you have truly lost control of your senses. Is there no limit to some people's paranoid fantasies? Well, at least you are quoting reliable news sources.... not.
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
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