[fireplaceguy]

Big picture first - heating with any kind of fuel that must be stored in advance will ultimately be unsustainable. Two reasons: 1) Storage space. 2) Problematic resupply - as conventional fuels dwindle in availability competition for alternatives such as wood and pellets will become fierce.

I know I am calling for a paradigm shift, but the only viable long-term solution is to use passive and/or active solar as your primary source of heat and domestic hot water, reserving your stored fuels for use in a backup role only.

On top of that, I would not suggest that you plan to heat your entire house (unless it's very small) with your backup heater - you'll end up using too much fuel. Instead, plan on zone heat, warm clothes and good sleeping bags.

In an ideal world, your first order of business should be heat retention - insulate, insulate, insulate!!

Then size a solar system and any passive features you can incorporate to meet almost all your heating needs. Only then would you plan for the backup systems...

Now to the fuel choices:

LP GAS stores indefinitely. For SHTF scenarios the tank(s) should be buried. Very nice for cooking and backup hot water, and excellent for standby generators.

A small propane heater (don't get the cheap vent-free kind) can keep a room or two warm and protect the pipes, although personally, I'd make provisions to drain the pipes instead of wasting precious fuel under that scenario. Installed/filled cost of the larger underground tanks will be at least $6 per gallon...

HEATING OIL (very similar to diesel fuel) stores for a year or so before it starts to degrade. Mold can be a problem too. There are commercially available preservatives but the military, as I recall, uses BHT. This is a common food preservative. Again, underground storage is best and five to ten years is probably the maximum ideal life of stored oil.

WOOD PELLETS store indefinitely IF you keep them dry. The downside of pellet heat is that pellet stoves require significant (200-250 watts/hr) electricity to operate. If grid power is unavailable, that's a staggering load for a PV system.

Also, in order to truly count on a pellet stove over time, spare parts (and the necessary tools and knowledge) would need to be in your posession.

There is one biomass stove out there that will reliably burn pellets, corn and wheat. It is a clean slate design - not a modified pellet stove, which I wouldn't consider.

It uses DC motors and consequently draws about 1/10 the electricity of a conventional pellet heater. As a bonus, it uses about 25% less fuel than conventional pellet heaters. It comes with a small 12v battery backup system and is pre-wired to connect to larger 12v sources. A good deep cycle battery can run it for days. It's pricey and spare parts remain an issue.

BIOMASS (grains like corn and wheat) will probably be too desirable as feed or food to consider burning. The stalks, etc. should be plowed back into the ground to decompose (or composted) to help minimize soil depletion...

A WOOD STOVE is the simplest solution. If you follow my thinking about zone heat, a smaller stove will cost less, so buy new, and get a good one. The high efficiency and low emissions make the initial investment worthwhile. Besides, a 30 or 40 year old stove is pretty used up for something you are potentially staking your life on.

FIREWOOD stores indefinitely if you keep it indoors or well protected from the elements. Firewood grows back, and if you control enough treed land (and think you can maintain control of it) then you're set.

PELLET LOGS - some pellet plants produce pellet "logs" that can be burned in wood stoves, and these things are very dense in terms of stored energy. One cord of the "logs" equals about three cords of regular firewood. Like pellets, they store indefinitely and must be kept completely dry.

COAL is energy dense and stores indefinirtely but will void the warranty and significantly shorten the life of a wood stove. Get a real coal stove if you want to go this route. The bagged anthracite is wonderful stuff but pricey if you aren't on the east coast.

Our personal plan? Primary: Lots of down comforters and a drainback thermal system with hefty storage capacity and circulation pumps powered by PV modules. Backup: two buried 1000 gallon propane tanks and a 40 foot high cube steel container (capacity 20+ cords) filled with hardwood for a modest wood stove, in which a fire is burning as I write...

We like to be warm...

[codesuidae]

Regarding heating.

In the north of siberia there is a group of people who live a lifestyle based not on oil, but on reindeer. Everything is about reindeer.

These people sleep in what amounts to tents in the winter north of the arctic circle. To keep warm they have developed a technique of building a large structure of poles and skins that blocks the wind. Inside this structure it is very cold, but somewhat sheltered. Plenty of room. Within this big tent they erect a second small tent (pup-tent sized) that is fur lined and has some fur skins for blankets. A candle provides heat. Within this sleeping area the temperature is warm enough to undress in comfort. I presume they use a cot-like structure underneath to stay off the floor. Being nomadic they cannot afford bulky or massive insulation.

While obviously fixed structures can take advantage of things that a tent cannot, I was impressed by the performance of this design, it might be something that could be useful in a pinch.

[elocs]

I consider the most important fuel to be food. If I have the food to provide enough calories and warm clothes and a good sleeping bag and a shelter to keep me out of the elements, then I can survive. Food reduces my use and reliance on other fuel sources.

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('fireplaceguy', '
')HEATING OIL (very similar to diesel fuel) stores for a year or so before it starts to degrade. Mold can be a problem too. There are commercially available preservatives but the military, as I recall, uses BHT. This is a common food preservative. Again, underground storage is best and five to ten years is probably the maximum ideal life of stored oil.

[fireplaceguy]

Years ago I read a Vietnam era military manual that addressed the subject. According to it, diesel fuel could be stored above ground for five years when preserved with BHT.

Heating oil,while a bit heavier, is fairly similar to diesel - but I haven't read anything specific about storing it long term.

Perhaps a heating oil dealer could shed some light on the subject.

[elocs]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('fireplaceguy', 'Y')ears ago I read a Vietnam era military manual that addressed the subject. According to it, diesel fuel could be stored above ground for five years when preserved with BHT.

Heating oil,while a bit heavier, is fairly similar to diesel - but I haven't read anything specific about storing it long term.

Perhaps a heating oil dealer could shed some light on the subject.

[WisJim]

Based on my personal experience, diesel fuel does extremely NOT have a long storage life. I worked at one time for a facility that had oil heat and a diesel generator capable of powering the entire place. They felt it was necessary to be able to be independent of utilities for a period of time, probably weeks, which meant that they had a huge buried diesel tank, nearly the size of a petroleum tanker truck, semi trailer type. I suppose 10, 000 to 20,000 gallons. This fuel had been in the tank for about 10 years and had deteriorated to the point where the diesel engine's injectors were clogging. The solution was to dig down to the tank, cut in a hatch, pump out the old diesel, and send in a man with scrapers to scrape the gelatinous glob from the sides of the tank. Then they refilled it with fresh diesel, and we started running the standby generator for much longer and more frequent exercise periods, and they added some kind of unknown (to me) fuel preservative to the tank. But the solution was partially to use a lot more fuel on a regular basis, and add fresh more often.

[basil_hayden]

#2 heating oil and diesel are identical, except #2 is a bit more sulfurous and dyed red for tax purposes. (red you're dead, so the truckers say at inspection stations)

#1 oil is more like kerosene or jet fuel. Gasoline is lighter than #1.

The problem with liquid petroleum storage is the loss of volatiles, primarily. #6 oil or bunker oil has little volatile components and is about as thick as jello at underground temps (55F), it needs to be heated (usually with steam) to be pumped, but will store an awful long time, probably longer than the underground storage tank you put it in, but that's another story

#4 oil is in between #2 and #6, workable at higher temps

There are microorganisms that can infect stored oil and accelerate sludge production, or increase the gel temp, but there are a variety of additives to slow sludge production.

[inquiry]

Is now a good time to buy oil stocks? - 2007

Can anyone point me to a good site that I can read up on how to buy Oil stocks if Oil price will likely top $100 a barrel by next year??

Is buying oil stocks still worth it or is the opportunity over?

Thanks

[Denny]

Actually, by the most typical measure of a stock value, the price to earnings ratio, many oil and gas companies are very cheap. Much lower than the Dow Jones average. Look at Conoco-Philips for example.

So, even if we believe that current oil and gas prices will stabilize for a while where they are, these re good buys. Though natural gas is too low right now for profits.

That is my simplistic take on it.

[TreebeardsUncle]

Hi.
Well, the majors are generally known and they will be having a harder time being profitable as their reserves decline. There is a worldwide shorting of drilling rigs and before long those companies
that off drilling leasing and support services should be doing well.
As each source of oil is pumped out, one has to use more and more rigs to keep the same level of production. Recommend looking into such companies as Helmrich & Payne, Flextronics, and Smith. Schlumberger is of course a big name, but they are fairly highly valued already. Value_Line is a good source of information for investing in stocks in general.

Geoff
gharris938@aol.com
Am open to discussing this sort of thing in depth via email as well. Thus far this is the only significant move I have made in regard to peak oil, investing according to the likely effects of increasing oil depletion.

Disclaimer: Have already invested a fair amount in HP, which makes flexible drilling rigs.

[pup55]

FSNEX

Find yourself a nice energy-sector mutual fund, such as this one, with a low minimum investment ($2500) a low expense ratio (less than 1%) and no load or fees when you get in or out. This particular one is part of a bigger mutual fund family which will allow swapping from fund to fund, establishing an IRA and other benefits. Note: Other mutual fund families are equally good.

Let a professional sweat out the details.

Last year this fund made 14% on what was a relatively flat year for oil prices (with a spike in the middle). You can look at the prospectus to see what companies the fund manager has invested in.

If you had done this a year ago, you would have made $350 income on your $2500 investment which is pretty good if repeatable this year.

Warning: I am not a professional. Never take investment advice from anyone who has a job. Do not believe everythng you see on the internet.

[cudabachi]

You've gotten some good advice so far here at this site.

I'd also suggest that you study a bit about ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds). I've found them to be much more flexible than mutual funds as they trade just like a regular stock (no worries about loads, etc), yet they still offer the diversity of a mutual fund.

I've done very well with OIH which is an oil services-related ETF. There are also numerous ETF's that focus on investments in exploration and production companies.

American Stock Exchange ETF page

[greenworm]

If you are going by the illusion of supply and demand, umm, no because a graph of the two will show you that the price is not correlated. However, if you are going by the assumption of the sheeple diving into the nymex, then, you've struck oil. By the way, the year to get into oil was 2002.

[Falconoffury]

I decided to move this to the economics board because this isn't a current event. It's more of a financial question related to oil.

[drew]

Just be crazy, and bet the farm! That's sort of what I did.

13 % what the hell is that.

Risk has its rewards. My overall rate of return including my mutuals (~35% of the portfolio) was 24% per annum for the past 2 years. My stock performance was 50% per annum for the same period.

I'm just having fun bragging btw, if anyone couldn't tell!

In all seriousness, oil stocks are a fairly good bet long term, but in the short term it has become harder and harder to make money in them. Most everyone is into day trading them because it is widely known that oil supplies are tight. As such it is harder to make money on the volatility compared to 18 months ago. A nasty recession will drive prices down and is a possibility, as is the likelihood of more craziness in the ME, which could drive prices through the roof.

Please be careful, investing is gambling plain and simple.

My number one rule; never, ever sell at a loss (for the most part)

Good luck in 2007

Drew

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')y overall rate of return including my mutuals (~35% of the portfolio) was 24% per annum for the past 2 years. My stock performance was 50% per annum for the same period.

[drew]

Like I said, Pup, it's gambling. Just for the record I 've watched a few slip away too. I would have made big money on them but didn't invest because I was wrong/uninformed about what was going on. I looked at Potash Corp in the summer at 100$ and almost bought but didn't. It is now at 160$. Similarly I watched Research in Motion (local co.) at the same time at 69; it is now at 150. Some times you miss it. I bought Cameco at 39 after a 2 for 1 split in last Nov. when I could have bought it 3 months earlier for half the cost (I was watching it then too). I missed out on a pile of money~at least 10,000 dollars anyways.

Now after that very importanty caveat~ that I don't really know what I'm doing~I'll tell you what I made my money in over the past 2 years.

Nov 2004, bought Suncor, (44) Barrick (30), Dalsa, (21) Can. Nat. Resources (cnq) (30)
Sometime in the spring of 2005 sold the Dalsa (17)at a loss-and it continued downward

Sold the Barrick too, (32)and made a couple hundred dollars

Can. Nat Re. had a 2 for one split, and I bought the same amount again. for 35 a share

Summer of 2005 I sold the Suncor (63) and CNq (mid fifties) and bought Encana for 49. I also bought CIBC for 69 on bad news.

Hurricane Katrina came and I bought another lot of encana at 55.

October 2005 came and I felt bad, so I sold everything. Sold cibc for ~73, Encana for 68

Bought back Encana shorthly after for 52 and held it till christmas 2005. I sold it making no money.

I also bought some gold/silver shares in Central Fund of Canada-at 6 bucks in the fall 2005 . Sold em at christmas 2005 too at around 8 dollars.

In nov 2005 I bought cameco for 39, sold it last week at 46.

I have held onto the gold/silver till the present having sold/bought it a few times- I cant remember. It has made me around 10k. The CEF I initially paid 6 for is trading around 11 dollars. I missed out on two of the big spikes where the shares were trading at around 12 bucks, btw.

I bought Nexen early 2006 and have day traded it 3 times for a profit of around 3k. I managed to buy it in the fifties and sell it in the high sixties each time. I still have a (1) lot of it.

I bought CIBC again at 78 in 2006 and held it till a month back-I sold it for 93.

I bought CNQ in the fall of 2006 and made 40 dollars on it when I sold last week.

As I said the above trading has doubled my money in the stock portion of the portfolio.

The rest of our money is in a bond fund which has gained about 2%-whoopee!- , and a monthly income fund that has done about 20% per year.

A lot of this has been pure luck, in combination with a strong Canadian economy.

As well, I always believe that people in general over react which keeps me calm when my share prices go down!

Good luck, hope this was of some use to you.

Drew

[Tyler_JC]

Another investment advice thread?

Do we really need to create a new investment thread every week?

Whatever...

Sure, oil prices can basically only go up from here and natural gas is trading at a major discount. Energy-sector mutual funds are probably the way to go.

Bet the farm and see what happens, good luck.

[KevO]

why?
Oil's at $57 and the Dow is down 242 points.
What happened?