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Recession or Depression (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Depression 2007?

Unread postby syrac818 » Sat 30 Dec 2006, 21:03:28

This is another one for the peakoil.com archives! Love it...

I can't tell me favorite parts, but right now I really like the Armageddon nut referencing passages in the bible. That was awesome.

However, the winner has to go to this gem:


"While I realize the exact year may not be accurate, would it be correct to reasonably assume that by the year 2012-2015, America and the world in general will be in a world of shit, aka second greater permanent energy depression that we will NEVER get out of, and from then on out it will only get worse and worse as we get slammed and hammered by peak oil, peak water, population correction, supergerms and super viruses, global warming AND global dimming, asteroids and comets from space, etc..."


Oh my.....wow. You know, a number of psychological medications really should be advertising on this site. Talk about missing a goldmine! And seriously, while I admire you guys' ability to maintain a consistently depressing outlook on everything, I think it's a little unhealthy. You're not prepared, you're paralyzed. This is life, and all kinds of crazy shit can happen. And to be honest, the threats we currently face in this day and age aren't shit. Read some history, and get a feel for what human struggle really is. Maybe then you'll appreciate all that you have been given , do the best you can with it, and try to move forward regardless of what you're facing.

Or you guys can sit around and talk about the same doom and depression and homemade cat recdipes that you've been ranting about for years on here. Fucking ridiculous.
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Re: Depression 2007?

Unread postby slick » Sat 30 Dec 2006, 21:24:51

The web is full of doomsday predictions and sites like peakoil.com that focus on the possibility of harsh outcomes, but there is a whole slew of arguments on the other side that are rarely supported by small groups of believers on the internet.

It is therefore highly unwise to make financial planning decisions on the basis of the thoughts of doomers like Jim Puplava and his hand-picked guests at financialsense.com. People like this tout commodities above all else, and that market could turn on a dime.

You have been warned!
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Re: Depression 2007?

Unread postby inquiry » Sat 30 Dec 2006, 21:44:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('slick', 'T')he web is full of doomsday predictions and sites like peakoil.com that focus on the possibility of harsh outcomes, but there is a whole slew of arguments on the other side that are rarely supported by small groups of believers on the internet.

It is therefore highly unwise to make financial planning decisions on the basis of the thoughts of doomers like Jim Puplava and his hand-picked guests at financialsense.com. People like this tout commodities above all else, and that market could turn on a dime.

You have been warned!


Other scenarios that have been named are:

* Antibiotic resistance. Natural selection would create super bacteria that are resistant to antibiotics, devastating the world population and causing a global collapse of civilization.[citation needed]
* Demography. Demographic trends create a "baby bust" that threatens the order of civilization as we know it.[22]
* Mutual assured destruction A full scale Nuclear war could kill billions, and the resulting Nuclear fallout effectively crush any form of civilization.
* Dysgenics. A lack of natural selection and the tendency of the more intelligent to have fewer children would lower the average health and intelligence enough to lead to an eventual collapse of civilization, associated with controversial eugenics theories.[23]
* Ecology. Natural resources are used up, or the environment is so damaged through pollution and destruction that civilization fails.[citation needed]
* Finance. Markets fail worldwide, resulting in economic collapse: mass unemployment, rioting, famine, and death.[citation needed]
* Infertility. Human fertility continues to decline, eventually ending with no fertile humans left to continue the species.[citation needed]
* Gray Goo. Out-of-control self-replicating robots consume all living matter on Earth while building more of themselves.[citation needed]
* Overpopulation. World population may increase to such an extent in the future that it would lead to lack of space for habitation.[citation needed]
* Peak oil. Oil runs out before an economically viable replacement is devised, leading to global chaos.[24]
* Quantum energy. In the search for new quantum particles, scientists accidentally destroy the universe. This, however, is highly unlikely; a Chernobyl style disaster is much more possible.[citation needed]
* Telomere. Some researchers theorize a tiny loss of telomere length from one generation to the next, mirroring the process of aging in individuals. Over thousands of generations the telomere erodes down to its critical level. Once at the critical level we would expect to see outbreaks of age-related diseases occurring earlier in life and finally a population crash.[25
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Re: Depression 2007?

Unread postby coyote » Sat 30 Dec 2006, 22:19:55

syrac, it's very interesting to look through your posts and note the difference between the earlier and the later. Not the content so much as the tone. You've become highly sarcastic and self-certain, and you repeat the same straw man cut with nearly every post. Whoever said anything about eating cats? Must have been a while ago. Ironically, you're the one who's been ranting about cat recipes.

Since we're doing favorites (and you did find a pretty good one -- comets are probably not something it's really fruitful to worry about), this was my favorite of yours:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('syrac818', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KhanCEO', 'I') suggest buying gold bullion, there is little risk. Gold is gold, you can always sell it, never a bad investment.


This is probably the worst piece of financial advice I've seen in years.

http://www.peakoil.com/post363525.html#363525

CBOE Gold index

Too bad we didn't get in on that one, eh?

I don't bring this up to point out your mistake -- we all make mistakes, especially when trying to predict a future filled with far too many variables to grasp at once -- but rather your slapdown tone. Is it possible you don't know everything -- about the future, and about us? Is it possible you're mistaken?

Regardless of what you think of us, I'd keep preparing if I were you. Just for fun, as it were.
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Re: Depression 2007?

Unread postby Stratovarius » Sat 30 Dec 2006, 23:38:20

Syrac sounds like a noob troll.

You can leave now.
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Re: Depression 2007?

Unread postby threadbear » Sat 30 Dec 2006, 23:39:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lateStarter', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('inquiry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cobra_Strike', 'I')t is possible, and the opinion of some on this board...even likely. There will be confirmation in the rear view window.


What will be the first coming signs of it happening or not as we enter January 2007? Would it be the first quarter earnings, or the job data for spring or what? Essentially, what will be the indicator (as we enter into 2007) that will let us know more decisively if and whether or not 2007 will be a 'good' year or a 'bad' one?


I would try to keep an eye on 'personal' signs. By personal, I mean don't exclusively watch what is happening on WallStreet. For instance, when your best friend loses his job at Best Buy and has a hard time finding work at Pizza Hut because of the competition. Or, more of your friends, need to move back home with Mom and Dad to make ends meet. Oh, wait! That is already happening...

FYI - you will not find what you are looking for on a billboard. By the time it is openly acknowledged as fact, it will already be too late. If you believe it is coming, plan accordingly...


This is a good point. During the dirty thirties the stock market was remarkably endurable. As a matter of fact, the papers of the time didn't cover the grinding hard times people were enduring. The media never used the term "depression" and portrayed the continuity of rotten economic news without context. As a result the bad news came across as a series of unfortunate random events, devoid of an overall pattern. Sound familiar? People tended to blame themselves. The ones who could see beyond the consensus delustion became politically active and threatened to start an American style Bolshevik revolution. Libertarians crack me up when they go on about Roosevelt and how his liberal social programs were the beginning of the end of the US. If he hadn't

For a modern take on an economy that is presented in an apolitical way, that encourages people to blame themselves for circumstances beyond their control, read Barbara Ehrenreich's Bait and Switch. It's an eye opener.
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Re: Depression 2007?

Unread postby ColossalContrarian » Sat 30 Dec 2006, 23:45:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('syrac818', '
')
Oh my.....wow. You know, a number of psychological medications really should be advertising on this site. Talk about missing a goldmine!

Or you guys can sit around and talk about the same doom and depression and homemade cat recdipes that you've been ranting about for years on here. Fucking ridiculous.


You're right. The admins need to get some Prozac adds going on this site... They could make bank!!!
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Re: Depression 2007?

Unread postby Strelnikov » Sun 31 Dec 2006, 00:38:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', 'c')omets are probably not something it's really fruitful to worry about


May want to rethink that one.

Ancient Crash, Epic Wave (Mega-Tsunami Every 1000 Years?)

This could be one of the most significant geophysical findings in generations. The 'impact' of this theory on the sustainability of modern industrial society, as currently configured, is monumental. Imagine the loss of most of the Pacific rim cities in an instant. Loss of the entire Persian Gulf or Atlantic basin (including GOM) petroleum infrastructure, in an instant. With these events having a, say, 1/2000 chance of occurring any given year.

As a comparison, I work in an industry (dams/hydrology/hydraulics) where we design for a safety factor of anywhere from 1/500 to 1/10,000 (dam upstream of ‘urban’ area) chance of occurring any given year. I began thinking about the frequency of tsunami following stories of the Indian Ocean tsunami where indigenous tribes understood that the water pulling away from shore signaled a need to move inland, fast. This knowledge was obviously passed down by oral history, which indicates to me tsunami on the scale of the one two years ago may be a lot more frequent than we think. The problem is a limited record to estimate the frequency of infrequent, extreme events.

When these (theorized) objects struck in the past, humans far enough away from the impact and resultant waves simply had land to colonize a few generations later. In our modern interconnected industrial society, the effects will be felt throughout all but the most undeveloped parts of the world in the form of economic collapse, famine, and more than likely conflict as the warlords inevitably try to grab what they can in the chaos. Consider that 80% of the world’s population lives within 200 ft. of sea level. We may have one more reason for industrialized society to move a significant enough amount of its resources away from the oceans to provide some redundancy.

It all may come to nothing, but the evidence presented so far is intriguing.


Ancient Crash, Epic Wave
By Sandra Blakeslee
November 14, 2006

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/14/scien ... 47&ei=5090
. . .

Most astronomers doubt that any large comets or asteroids have crashed into the Earth in the last 10,000 years. But the self-described “band of misfits” that make up the two-year-old Holocene Impact Working Group say that astronomers simply have not known how or where to look for evidence of such impacts along the world’s shorelines and in the deep ocean.

Scientists in the working group say the evidence for such impacts during the last 10,000 years, known as the Holocene epoch, is strong enough to overturn current estimates of how often the Earth suffers a violent impact on the order of a 10-megaton explosion. Instead of once in 500,000 to one million years, as astronomers now calculate, catastrophic impacts could happen every 1,000 years.

The researchers, who formed the working group after finding one another through an international conference, are based in the United States, Australia, Russia, France and Ireland. They are established experts in geology, geophysics, geomorphology, tsunamis, tree rings, soil science and archaeology, including the structural analysis of myth. Their efforts are just getting under way, but they will present some of their work at the American Geophysical Union meeting in December in San Francisco.

. . .

Dr. Masse analyzed 175 flood myths from around the world, and tried to relate them to known and accurately dated natural events like solar eclipses and volcanic eruptions. Among other evidence, he said, 14 flood myths specifically mention a full solar eclipse, which could have been the one that occurred in May 2807 B.C. Half the myths talk of a torrential downpour, Dr. Masse said. A third talk of a tsunami. Worldwide they describe hurricane force winds and darkness during the storm. All of these could come from a mega-tsunami.
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Re: Depression 2007?

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 31 Dec 2006, 00:54:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Stratovarius', 'S')yrac sounds like a noob troll.

You can leave now.


agree. Biggest loser on here
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Re: Depression 2007?

Unread postby NEOPO » Sun 31 Dec 2006, 01:11:00

It is easier to enslave a people that wish to remain free then it is to free a people who wish to remain enslaved.
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Re: Depression 2007?

Unread postby TommyJefferson » Sun 31 Dec 2006, 01:32:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', ' ')Here are some examples on cases I'm working on:


Interesting. Thanks.

Last winter I became convinced 'the big one' recession would occur around September of this year. It did not.

The numbers just keep getting worse and worse. I just cannot imagine a big correction is not in the works.

I've prepared logistically, financially, and socially as best I can. There is nothing more I can do. I've pretty much quit worrying about it and decided 'let the chips fall where they may'.

I'm still going to try and time the bottom so as to acquire some rural property and equipment at a distress sale prices. I purchased my current home from the Resolution Trust Corporation that way for a pittance.
Conform . Consume . Obey .
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Re: Depression 2007?

Unread postby o2ny » Sun 31 Dec 2006, 01:58:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('armegeddon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Stratovarius', 'S')yrac sounds like a noob troll.

You can leave now.


agree. Biggest loser on here


Why? Because he dares point out the fact that people on this board have been predicting every imaginable scenario of doom including (but not limited to) floods, depressions, wars, category 6+ hurricanes, massive die-offs, panics, super viruses, martial law, prison camps, robot overlords, really big bar-room brawls, giant moths, rabid squirrels, gas shortages, food shortages, water shortages, clothes shortages, beer shortages, etc. etc ad nauseum, year after year after year... and we're still sitting here in a shockingly non-collapsed state of snooze worthy status-quo falling asleep in our easy chairs watching espn and eating doritos. The dow continues to rise, the economy continues to not fall off a cliff, and people, oh wait I'm sorry, sheeple, are still buying plasma tv's with no end in sight.

On a poll on another thread "trader's corner", over 50% predicted a price of oil over $80 a barrel for 12/29... 80% predicted $70 or over. Does that tell you something? Way skewed on the pessimistic side. Maybe some of these posters should just take a year off from PO. A little vacation from the pathological worry mongering. How about getting some vitamin D, some Zoloft, a bottle of scotch and maybe some good porn and set it on cruise control. The doomsdays will be there waiting for you in '08... why not spend a year living in a world that is not about to fall apart in a week? How about some sunshine, bluebirds and yoga for a year?
"If you're always looking for the invisible hand to guide you, you will find that the invisible hand often gives you the invisible finger." - some guy on CNBC
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Re: Depression 2007?

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 31 Dec 2006, 02:13:31

No, because he called me a nut
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Re: Depression 2007?

Unread postby coyote » Sun 31 Dec 2006, 02:33:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Strelnikov', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', 'c')omets are probably not something it's really fruitful to worry about


May want to rethink that one.

Interesting post. But I didn't mean to imply that it's never going to happen. Just that it's not fruitful to worry about it at the present time. Most of the comets out there we still don't know about, and they're in irregular orbits going waaaay out. Many don't even have a visible tail any longer (been burned off by repeated passes near the Sun), making them tough to spot as they head in. They can come in fast, from any direction, possibly giving no more than a few days warning. We'd have to be at a much higher level of technology to do anything about it. At least that's my understanding. So, not worth worrying about. It happens or it doesn't.
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Re: Depression 2007?

Unread postby coyote » Sun 31 Dec 2006, 02:43:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('o2ny', 'H')ow about some sunshine, bluebirds and yoga for a year?

Way ahead of you. It was a very sunny day here, I was out in it, it was beautiful, and I even did my yoga this week. Hell, there's even a bluebirds thread right here on this nasty old doomer site.

Really guys, just because we see a lot of screwed up shit on the horizon, and this is one of the few places we can discuss it with like-minded individuals, doesn't mean we're locked in the basement hunched over our computers, muttering and never seeing daylight. Give me a break.
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Re: Depression 2007?

Unread postby syrac818 » Sun 31 Dec 2006, 06:29:15

Love the replies. Love them.

Let's break it down,.


I am a peak oil believer. On some level, this will take place. If any one of you were to take a look at my portfolio, you would see it heavily weighted in both oil and gold. I believe in peak oil.

My issue is this - you guys have decided to be scared, hide out, and wait for the end to come. It's a shame...

Here you are, seeing what is in front of you. And you choose the easiest way out. You're cowering, you refuse to think beyond the carbon lifestyle we live, and you surrender to an apocalyptic end.

Meanwhile, here we are, at the brink of amazing change. And you can be a part of that change - you're aware. Embrace it. Learn about it, see what's in front of you, and how you can benefit.

A tremendous opportunity for postive change. Invest in alternative energy, learn about sustainable agriculture, promote local food production, and at the very least buy oil futures. But this route that "peak oil" believers have gone on is both weak and disgusting. I'm tired of reading your doomsday scenarios, and to be honest they got old years ago. You can do better. We can all do better.

If you see an ugly future ahead of us then do what you can to change it. If you must, do what you can to benefit. But sitting here, ranting about, promoting it, being depressed it, talking about how the worst is ahead of us..... it's tired. So bored with it. We have a real issue in front of us - address it. Acting as if it's simply beyond you is weak.


I'm doing what I can to make peak oil more than a doomsady scenerio. It's a challenge. An epic challenge. Step up.
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Re: Depression 2007?

Unread postby Sys1 » Sun 31 Dec 2006, 07:20:35

Alert! Doomer porno detected! Alert!
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Re: Depression 2007?

Unread postby JustinFrankl » Sun 31 Dec 2006, 10:16:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('syrac818', 'I')'m doing what I can to make peak oil more than a doomsady scenerio. It's a challenge. An epic challenge. Step up.

On New Year's Eve, when there should be snow and freezing temperatures, I have thunderstorms. All the box elder bugs are usually dead or gone by November, but they keep turning up. I also found one of those Japanese "ladybug" beetles yesterday. In the middle of "winter".

Much of what you say has merit, however, the challenge facing humanity is unprecedented in human history. Peak oil is real, along with global climate change, as is the Holocene extinction, and they are all planet-wide. These aren't local problems anymore that we can solve by moving somewhere else, or finding new resources.
"We have seen the enemy, and he is us." -- Walt Kelly
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Re: Depression 2007?

Unread postby RonMN » Sun 31 Dec 2006, 10:57:00

I read a book called "The Comming Economic Earthquake" copywrited in 1991.

It said the EARLY warning signs will be:
- The national deficit can no longer be funded by additional borrowing. (we are right on the edge of this now).

- Monetizing the debt (already happening).

- Taxes increase dramatically (not federal...but my state & local sure have increased).

The FINAL warning signs will be:
- Banking crisis (we're close with record home forclosures).

- Business failures & departures (been happening for years).

- Denial

So how many of these warning signs do you see happening?

I point out the copywrite date because some could see this from 1991...it's the fate of every fiat currency that ever existed...it's not greenspans fault (or congress or bush)...it's simply the way of things with a fiat currency & a system based on exponential growth.

Will it happen in 2007? Who knows. But I am seeing alot of these "cracks" forming for this "Comming Economic Earthquake" already.
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Re: Depression 2007?

Unread postby Stratovarius » Sun 31 Dec 2006, 11:14:10

Syrac...

What in the hell are you talking about? Did you just say that all the doomers aren't doing shit and they're all just sitting over their computers thinking of cool new ways for the world to end?

Some are leaving the board to go prepare, how about actually reading some posts. And just because people post here about the end of the world doesn't mean they're not doing anything just because they aren't posting about it.

Seriously just go the hell away.
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