[inquiry]

Is a recession or even depression possibly or likely for 2007? Even if we take peak oil out of the equation, there are still plenty of stuff to make a recession plausible in the next year or two.

Many people have predicted a possible recession for the US in 2007.
Possible reasons are the housing bubble turned bust getting even worse, the debt bubble popping, the US dollar may fall even more, the baby boomers are retiring in massive amounts and withdrawing their savings and stocks, we may have another Katrina or worse, Iran could do something crazy, the list is endless.

For all of us we subscribe to peak oil theory, it is a dead given that US and global economy will eventually hit a great depression anyway, but could a recession or even depression be already in the works for the US in 2007 even without the issues of peak oil and infinite growth machine?

[NEOPO]

Yes.

IMHO the recent trends were needed to slow the system down/cut demand.
If TPTB can keep demand in check by pulling the plugs on certain aspects of the economy then would this not be preferred rather then allowing certain elements to implode on their own which would certainly be seen as a sign/signal by others that could lead to financial panic....

Ride the plateau out while pretending we are not on a plateau seems to be the order of the day.

Kill or sap the economies of 2nd and 3rd world nations to divert that "saved" energy into offsetting depletion.

Build permanent bases in the heart of SLC land.

Uhm sorry and Yes

[inquiry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NEOPO', 'Y')es.

IMHO the recent trends were needed to slow the system down/cut demand.
If TPTB can keep demand in check by pulling the plugs on certain aspects of the economy then would this not be preferred rather then allowing certain elements to implode on their own which would certainly be seen as a sign/signal by others that could lead to financial panic....

Ride the plateau out while pretending we are not on a plateau seems to be the order of the day.

Kill or sap the economies of 2nd and 3rd world nations to divert that "saved" energy into offsetting depletion.

Build permanent bases in the heart of SLC land.

Uhm sorry and Yes

[Cobra_Strike]

It is possible, and the opinion of some on this board...even likely. There will be confirmation in the rear view window.

[inquiry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cobra_Strike', 'I')t is possible, and the opinion of some on this board...even likely. There will be confirmation in the rear view window.

[lateStarter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('inquiry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cobra_Strike', 'I')t is possible, and the opinion of some on this board...even likely. There will be confirmation in the rear view window.

[Armageddon]

They manipulate every government number, so I do not know when we will actually know . I have heard the unemployment numbers could be as high as 15-18 % already. But , when a person loses his job and takes an entry level position just to make the ends and nothing else, he does not show up in the government numbers. Nor do people whose benefits run out and they do not collect unemployment wages either. Recession is when your neighbor loses his/her job, a depression is when you lose yours.

[Armageddon]

My small business ( contractor in st.louis ) is very slow right now. This is my 20th year , and I am very seldom slow. I live in a wealthy area, so I assume I will be affected late in the recession / depression. ( hopefully ). Our house is paid, and our bills are only normal ones, so I can hold out for a while. I refuse to take out an equity loan against my house.

[seahorse]

I've mentioned in other threads that I'm a lawyer in Arkansas that does a fair amount of construction type legal work. In my area, we are only in the beginning of a big decline of the housing market. I hear the pundits on t.v. saying the worse of the housing slump may be behind us, but not where I live. Here are some examples on cases I'm working on:

(1) We are involved in a bank foreclosure of 40 new homes, some built, some not finished. This is in the millions of dollars. Keep in mind, the suits are just beginning and will take a year to work out, meaning, none of these homes will be sold until the legal dust settles, unfinished homes will just sit there, bank loans go bad, builder goes bankrupt, this is all a given;

(2) client's marble business is going belly up. He's been in business over 20 years and this has never happened to him. He's laid off most his employees, and has zero jobs right now (yesterday he had four bids to make). He is considering filing bankruptcy;

(3) Another major builder here, with $25 million in unsold properties, is filing bankruptcy;

(3) another former client, with about $50+ million in unsold properties, had a $2million dollar interest payment due last Friday, that wasn't paid;

(4) another client has 25 homes sitting there, all finished, and no offers. He was building back in the 70s and survived that slow down, he says this market isn't slow, its dead.

So, in my area, we haven't reached the bottom yet. Its only beginning where I live. I cannot see how the banks with all these bad loans will come out of this unscathed. Banks do not really want to foreclose and take possession of unsold homes or homes that aren't finished.

[EnergyHog]

Just getting warmed up here.

[EnergyHog]

Adjusting GDP to a more 'correct' number based on a 'correct' CPI shows that the U.S. has been in a recession for quite some time already (see shadowstats.com). 2007 is probably the year when the people will feel so much financial pressure that the distorted CPI, employment, etc. become irrelevant. 2008 is my guess as to when the economic SHTF a la recognition of the collapsing housing market and falling USD.

[coyote]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cobra_Strike', 'T')here will be confirmation in the rear view window.

[Armageddon]

I think it is just beginning also. We haven't seen anything yet. Reminds me of a scripture in the bible that says in the end times, they will be throwing their money in the streets because it will be worthless.

[shortonoil]

Depression 2007? Possibly, housing is definitely going to revert to its 100 year mean at some point, which is about 50% of ‘05 evaluations. Since the average American household earns $44,300 per year, and the average mortgage equity withdrawal in ‘05 was $8,300 per household, and ‘06 housing values declined by 9.7%, the economy will be hit pretty hard. Of course, the FED will keep pumping huge amount of cash into the economy to keep that housing bubble from deflating too fast. The latest M3b reports show a monetary expansion rate of 11.7%. But, housing is controlled more by interest rates than liquidity, and there the FED is helpless. The US requires foreign inflows of $2.5 billion per day to service the $47 trillion in US bond debt that has already been issued. With foreign central banks already making it known that they will be raising rates in ‘07, the FED has no room to cut rates. Probably they will have to increase them to save the anemic, sick dollar. Watch the March, FED meeting for more news on this.

The real problem with the US economy seems to lay a little further out, and is based on oil and NG. Over the next 2 to 3 years it is almost assured that the US will lose about 20% of its oil supply. The debauchery in Iraq will most certainly collapse in the next few years, and the US will be cut-off from that supply to the tune of 1.5 mb/d. Mexico’s crumbling addition to the US oil supply is geological, and by ‘08 most of the Mexican supply will have ceased. With our own fields declining, and our largest supplier, Canada, on the decline, imports to the US will decline sharply over the next 2 to 3 years. NG appears to becoming a bigger problem yearly. The bizarrely warm winter, so far, has saved and disguised declining North American production this year. But, with new wells showing an average depletion rate of 37% and older fields displaying signs that rapidly falling output will soon occur, the hand writing is on the wall for this carbon source.

Of course the problem will manifest itself in the currency markets. The already pounded dollar, loosing 30% in the last 4 years against the Euro, will continue to decline. With inflation pressures rising, along with a declining housing market, we can expect to see millions forced from their homes, employment collapse, and the price of foreign made goods rise dramatically. ‘07 may not be the banner year, ‘08 - ‘10 will most assuredly deliver our next greater than Great Depression.

[Cobra_Strike]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('armegeddon', 'I') think it is just beginning also. We haven't seen anything yet. Reminds me of a scripture in the bible that says in the end times, they will be throwing their money in the streets because it will be worthless.

[inquiry]

Thanks for all the replies.

Here is a few of the sites I talked about earlier that suggested a depression or at least recession coming 2007. While I realize the exact year may not be accurate, would it be correct to reasonably assume that by the year 2012-2015, America and the world in general will be in a world of shit, aka second greater permanent energy depression that we will NEVER get out of, and from then on out it will only get worse and worse as we get slammed and hammered by peak oil, peak water, population correction, supergerms and super viruses, global warming AND global dimming, asteroids and comets from space, etc...

http://www.ameinfo.com/75420.html

http://www.depression2007.com/

http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/120506S.shtml

http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2006/Brussee.html

http://leninology.blogspot.com/2006/09/ ... ssion.html

http://bubblemeter.blogspot.com/2006/01 ... ssion.html

[shortonoil]

inquiry said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'a')ka second greater permanent energy depression that we will NEVER get out of, and from then on out it will only get worse and worse as we get slammed and hammered by peak oil, peak water, population correction, super-germs and super viruses, global warming AND global dimming, asteroids and comets from space, etc...

[oilluber]

who cares as long as my investments go up
and the USD goes down.
I did not create the mess, Greenspan did.

[smiley]

IMHO a major recession/depression in the US has become inevitable, even without PO and a Martian invasion of superbugs.

But I don't dare to put a bet on the timing. Right now every economic force on the planet is trying to keep the US economy upright and to stall the inevitable.

It will happen when the Chinese, the Japanese, or the Europeans governments loose faith in the dollar and run for the exit. That can be 2007. If I was the Chinese, I would be quietly sneaking towards the emergency exit right now.

But then again, governments are not the most logical and rational institutes, so who knows when they will pull the plug.

[Armageddon]

Two things have kept this floating.
1) easy credit has prolonged the inevitable. From credit cards, car loans, home loans and refi's on home loans.
2) Massive printing of money