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Growth Projections for US Economy 2007

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Growth Projections for US Economy 2007

Unread postby Cobra_Strike » Wed 27 Dec 2006, 16:18:06

It will be weak until the Fed drops rates again, reheating the housing industry...
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Re: Growth Projections for US Economy 2007

Unread postby TommyJefferson » Wed 27 Dec 2006, 16:27:11

"...Inflation, though a bit above the Fed’s “comfort zone” of 2 percent, is still relatively tame by historical standards."

Right.

He was smart enough to add this caveat:

"A serious crimp in the global [petroleum] pipeline could send prices spiking, creating a serious inflation problem that would send economists scrambling to re-write their forecast spreadsheets.
"

Yes. I suppose it would.
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Re: Growth Projections for US Economy 2007

Unread postby Cobra_Strike » Wed 27 Dec 2006, 16:30:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ElijahJones', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cobra_Strike', 'I')t will be weak until the Fed drops rates again, reheating the housing industry...


So just reinflate that bubble, when that one is feared to burst again find a way to divert the hot air somewhere else?
Something I have noticed while watching CNBC today, they stopped talking about a crash...are barely referring to a soft landing, and seem very sure that there is going to be a 'recovery' next year in the housing market.

'Hitting a bottom' my ass...
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Re: Growth Projections for US Economy 2007

Unread postby Cobra_Strike » Wed 27 Dec 2006, 16:40:50

And not just foreclosure, all the newly built homes too...I was very confused about were all the money to buy these homes would come from. The housing numbers seemed to have helped the market today.
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Re: Growth Projections for US Economy 2007

Unread postby Cynus » Wed 27 Dec 2006, 16:54:13

Many are saying that the fed's rate increases are what have slowed the economy and perhaps pushed us into a recession. But aren't rates of 5% very low by historical standards? What does it say about the economy that interests rates of only 5% are sufficient to cause a recession?
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Re: Growth Projections for US Economy 2007

Unread postby Kristen » Wed 27 Dec 2006, 22:09:39

Why worry about it guys. Many civilizations have risen to great power and crumbled shortly after. People managed than and we will manage too.
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Re: Growth Projections for US Economy 2007

Unread postby dukey » Thu 28 Dec 2006, 00:21:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')aybe it is a hope that the worst can be avoided if properly understood beforehand.


bingo !

I think this might be part of the problem :p
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Re: Growth Projections for US Economy 2007

Unread postby Cobra_Strike » Thu 28 Dec 2006, 16:23:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kristen', 'W')hy worry about it guys. Many civilizations have risen to great power and crumbled shortly after. People managed than and we will manage too.
However lots of people tend to not survive...People does not mean everyone, in fact it is bad form to bank on being one of the lucky survivors.
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Re: Growth Projections for US Economy 2007

Unread postby Euric » Thu 28 Dec 2006, 19:40:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cobra_Strike', 'I')t will be weak until the Fed drops rates again, reheating the housing industry...


That will only make conditions worse. It will just force already unaffordable homes to become more expensive and thus even more unaffordable.

The average American needs to have his income increased to to whatever it takes to afford a 100 m^2 plus home costing over 300 k$.
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Re: Growth Projections for US Economy 2007

Unread postby Euric » Thu 28 Dec 2006, 19:44:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cobra_Strike', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ElijahJones', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cobra_Strike', 'I')t will be weak until the Fed drops rates again, reheating the housing industry...


So just reinflate that bubble, when that one is feared to burst again find a way to divert the hot air somewhere else?
Something I have noticed while watching CNBC today, they stopped talking about a crash...are barely referring to a soft landing, and seem very sure that there is going to be a 'recovery' next year in the housing market.

'Hitting a bottom' my ass...


Wishful thinking! Where is the American working poor going to get the income to afford inflated housing prices? Why is there a problem now? It is because the American working poor can't afford to buy with his earnings a decent home.

By what magic will this fact change? Is the mother of all fairy godmothers going to inflate American wallets and bank accounts too?
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Re: Growth Projections for US Economy 2007

Unread postby MrBill » Fri 29 Dec 2006, 04:32:54

Home ownership is going up NOT down, which is a sign that home ownership is STILL affordable. Strip-out illegal immigration and take-out a few unaffordable markets like California and the picture improves. Prices went up due to demand outpacing supply NOT vice versa. Now that is correcting. Blame it on money supply if you want. But the market was fuelled by would-be home owners who think real-estate is the best investment because it can NEVER go down in price. THAT is what is driving housing prices above equivalent rents. Why many households with 2.5 children want and need to live in a house with twelve rooms is another story.
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Re: Growth Projections for US Economy 2007

Unread postby Doly » Fri 29 Dec 2006, 06:40:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'H')ome ownership is going up NOT down, which is a sign that home ownership is STILL affordable.


Yes, by going into massive debt. What happens when interest rates go up?
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Re: Growth Projections for US Economy 2007

Unread postby MrBill » Fri 29 Dec 2006, 07:18:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'H')ome ownership is going up NOT down, which is a sign that home ownership is STILL affordable.


Yes, by going into massive debt. What happens when interest rates go up?


I think clearly the problem is withdrawing home equity, taking on more debt to buy other depreciating assets such as consumables, and not borrowing money to buy the roof over your head as opposed to renting.

If you do not want to borrow money then rent. If you buy, then pay-off your fooking mortgage before blowing your paycheque on crap from Wal-Mart or Tesco's. I am sorry, but is there some misconception here that real salaries should be going up while everything gets cheaper?

Houses are expensive because obviously there is a real demand for them. And, yes, would-be homeowners have been able to buy them by taking out morgages. If interest rates go up, and they are forecasted to fall in 2007, then those who have ARMs will have to pay more interest. So they will be unable to buy, yet, more crap from Wal-Mart or Tesco's.

Sorry, no new X-box games for little Jimmy. Daddy has to pay the mortgage this month. Tough luck! If someone cannot get by on their double income then I would suggest it is them and not the economy that is at fault.
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Re: Growth Projections for US Economy 2007

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Fri 29 Dec 2006, 10:37:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'S')orry, no new X-box games for little Jimmy. Daddy has to pay the mortgage this month. Tough luck! If someone cannot get by on their double income then I would suggest it is them and not the economy that is at fault.

At some point in near future our little Jimmy will have to do without his daily packs of cornflakes and chips too!
Sorry Jimmy, Dad has to pay his mortgage and CC bill.
Tough luck.
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Re: Growth Projections for US Economy 2007

Unread postby MrBill » Fri 29 Dec 2006, 11:15:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'S')orry, no new X-box games for little Jimmy. Daddy has to pay the mortgage this month. Tough luck! If someone cannot get by on their double income then I would suggest it is them and not the economy that is at fault.

At some point in near future our little Jimmy will have to do without his daily packs of cornflakes and chips too!
Sorry Jimmy, Dad has to pay his mortgage and CC bill.
Tough luck.


When you paint with wide brushes your probably going to get paint where you didn't intend to and miss spots as well. The Pareto Principle may be more appropriate.

Likely, of the 20% that have financial problems, about 80% will be their own fault, while the other 20% probably not? It is hard to generalize, but we do it anyway in order to make a point.

I am not wishing bad luck on anyone. But it visits us all at times. It is like death and taxes!
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