[gego]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
')The amount of oil also declines with depletion, right? This is just as a percentage of the remaining oil.

[gego]

If you remember that Richard Duncan considered 1930 to 2030 to be the oil age, it now looks his 2030 date is quite reasonable. If peak gross production is 2010 and production cost at a minimum continue on trend, then 2030 have only 34% of whatever 2010 peak gross production is to then use.

I was intrigued by his method of calculating the end timing of a spike in electrical flow, which yielded the date 2030. Independent of that I did some study of market peaks and crashes and placed a similar date in my mind as the likely end of meaningful oil production.

This exploration of EROEI combined with depletion rates post peak certainly makes 2030 a reasonable time to look for the end of meaningful oil production. The hope that there will be a substitute for light sweet oil that will overcome the diminishing return effect is in my opinion more a wishful dream that reasonable, simply on the EROEI issue alone, because all known substitutes are just a continuation of the progression to 1:1 EROEI.

What would 10 of 20 years one way or another mean anyhow?

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gego', '.')..certainly makes 2030 a reasonable time to look for the end of meaningful oil production.

[gego]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JPL', '
')
I think we need to move on a bit. It's a nice chart but I think we all know what Gazza was trying to say.

We try to hide behind the future sometimes - the same way we do with the past. But at some point soon, we will all throw these charts, and our hopes, and fears, in the bin and just get on with our lives (with or without EROEI).

[Elan_Rasa]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gego', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
')The amount of oil also declines with depletion, right? This is just as a percentage of the remaining oil.

[gego]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Elan_Rasa', '
')
Assuming that this graph is correct (no insult intended), that is one scary looking green line.

[DantesPeak]

Great work above and great thread.

On the front page of the NY Times today (also in the PO news section), we learn that the marginal cost of oil secured by the US government under some GOM royalty programs is $80. Outside of a brief moment when oil actually hit $80, the US is engaged in an activity with a negative payoff. It's possible that the EROEI is also negative.

After seeing the article earlier this week that the much proclaimed “Jack” deep water discovery in the GOM was going to be plugged up for many months before more drilling occurs, one gets the impression that major oil companies are also pushing the limits of EROEI within the US.

If these trends we see here in the US can be projected to the rest of the world, we will indeed see continuing – and possibly accelerating - drops in EROEI before too long, if not already.

[gego]

To illustrate how the controlling factor is EROEI, not peak oil, I did two more charts.
The first assumes instead of a 2010 peak oil date, a date of 2030, everything else being the same as the prior chart:

The second assumes a peak oil date of 2010, but instead of a 3.5% depletion rate thereafter, it assumes a 7% depletion rate.

Compare this to the previous chart. This is not to say that the peak oil date and subsequent depletion rate are not important factors very near term, but it does not change the big picture.

Unless there is some magical "get out of jail free" card that can be played to alter the EROEI trend in oil production or to substitute completely for oil (including drilled oil, grown oil, converted from coal oil) then it looks to me like tough sailing ahead. If you hold this card, please come forward now.

[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'O')utside of a brief moment when oil actually hit $80, the US is engaged in an activity with a negative payoff. It's possible that the EROEI is also negative.

[Revi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gego', 'I')f you remember that Richard Duncan considered 1930 to 2030 to be the oil age, it now looks his 2030 date is quite reasonable. If peak gross production is 2010 and production cost at a minimum continue on trend, then 2030 have only 34% of whatever 2010 peak gross production is to then use.

What would 10 of 20 years one way or another mean anyhow?

[gego]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
')
10 or 20 years one way or the other could be the difference between making it to retirement and starving to us late baby bloomers! If we can make it past 12 more years...

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gego', 'W')hat would 10 of 20 years one way or another mean anyhow?

[Gazzatrone]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gego', 'I') hope that Gazzatrone intended this thread continue.

[Revi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gego', 'W')hat would 10 of 20 years one way or another mean anyhow?

[gego]

Revi,

What you have done is very good for temporary problems related to energy; quite admirable from some, even most perspectives.

What I do when I am trying to understand something is to imagine a super extreme case. Don't think in terms of the power lines falling down do to ice, to be fixed in a few days or even weeks. Think of no more electricity at all, never ever, and what you would do. Maybe the extreme will not happen, but it gives you the range of possibilities as compared to today.

Oh, I forgot to mention, retirement is not a pass to Disneyworld. It is just an opportunity to work harder to make it possible for you to live until exhaustion.

[Revi]

Gego, all the stuff we have done will work even if electricity never gets turned back on. The sun will heat the water, the wood will go in the stove, and I'll keep finding batteries in dead SUV's to keep the LED lights on in the house. We even have a solar car in the works to get around in. Check out the movie we made on it:

www.sunnev.com

[gego]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'G')ego, all the stuff we have done will work even if electricity never gets turned back on.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'R')etirement is a goal, a kind of nirvana. I know that it's probably just wishful thinking, and that things aren't going to be any better then, but it's something to look forwards to.

[Gazzatrone]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'R')etirement is a goal, a kind of nirvana.

[Revi]

I think you are right, Gazzatrone. We may be "retired" sooner than we think. What do we do then? I think that will be the chance to radically downsize our lives. We'll just have to mellow out. We won't have enough money to run around. I think I'll cut some wood, make some woodblock prints, plant a garden and tend it. It won't be so bad. It won't be so great either.

We are living in some interesting times. Since we can't change the overall situation, we'll just have to deal with our own personal way of living. We may be able to get through this. Maybe...