[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'I') don't think anyone living in Europe has ever lived sustainably.

[Revi]

This thread has depressed me for days. It put me back into Peak Oil gloom and doom. I haven't been there for at least 2 years. Thanks a lot! The whole EROEI thing is a real downer. It has led me to think of a lot of other things that won't be worth doing any more once the energy you can get from them isn't as much as you spend. Like almost everything we're doing now. Will it make sense to drive to a job at all? Unless you are extremely important is the world going to provide you with the fuel to get to your work? I was talking to a friend who works at a seed company that pays more than minimum wage. A lot of the employees drive 40 miles to work and are not going to do that any more. They found that it wasn't worth it to spend $15 in gas and maintenance every day to get to a job that only pays around $50 a day. They may stop driving soon. The world may stop working soon, because of things like that.

[gego]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'T')his thread has depressed me for days. It put me back into Peak Oil gloom and doom. I haven't been there for at least 2 years. Thanks a lot! The whole EROEI thing is a real downer.

[coyote]

Remember all the biofuels proponents who keep complaining that the same EROEI standards aren't applied to petroleum as to alternatives? And we keep saying, no need, petroleum has proven itself in the real world for decades...

Looks like that's going to change. Maybe soon.

What a fascinating twist this is. Like we've been watching for the storm, and suddenly see the meteor inbound from a different direction.

[coyote]

I think we need to dupe some of this discussion over to Depletion Modeling, and get some of the wizards there working on it. How much quality data is out there for falling EROEI?

[coyote]

Forgot about this old thread. Bumped it.

[gego]

This thread is hard to get out of my mind.

First of all, we never are going to get to 1:1 EROEI for oil because just approaching it will be enough to send world economies into near total collapse. How powerful will be the reachback effect is unknown, but it is already being felt. But given that 1:1 ratio as a theoretical end to the oil age, I constructed a table starting in 1930 using 3.5% as the rate of decline in EROEI; the table showed right at 6:1 for 2010, and 1:1 was reached approximately in 2060.

I talked a little about why I think that the 3.5% rate will not be what we experience as we shift to alternative oils like heavy, tar sand, and possibly oil shale and as we shift to hard to get at oil like 30,000 ft. wells in the Gulf of Mexico. If the rate of decline in EROEI shifts up to 6%, then 1:1 is met near 2040; if the rate shifts up to 10%, then 2030 is the approximate crossover date. The reality will probably be something like a progression in the rate at which EROEI declines, so we know that the range is in the neighborhood of 2025 to 2060.

If you think that this is bad, then add this to the mechanics of the change in EROEI. If the EROEI rate falls by half, the energy cost of acquiring a barrel of oil doubles. if you are producing 1,000,000 barrels, at a 6.25:1 ratio, it takes 160,000 barrels to get the 1,000,000 production leaving 840,000 to consume. If the ratio falls to 3:125 then it takes 320,000 barrels to get 1,000,000, leaving 680,000 to consume, or 81% of what you previously had available. Now look at what happens if you fall by half again, down to 1.5625:1 from 3.125:1; it takes 640,000 barrels to get 1,000,000 leaving 360,000 available. This 360,000 is only 53% of the 680,000 you had at 3.125:1. The loss in the number of available barrels is accelerating with each halving of the EROEI ratio; it is not a straight line function.

This is a real bitch of a problem as compared to peak production. If we manage to keep gross production at a plateau the EROEI mechanics of change will not go away; actually it will only get worse because of the large additional energy cost of keeping production from falling.

The EROEI ratio applies to all substitutes for the light sweet oil we have depended upon for the last seven decades. Whether these substitutes are heavy oil or corn oil I think we are locked into a progression moving rapidly down toward an unacceptable 1:1 ratio, dictated by the realities of nature and the increasing difficulty of physically acquiring oil.

So now, what are the EROEI statistics on natural gas and coal? Does it even matter at this point?

Edited to correct the date 2050; should have been 2060. I can do math, just not type.

[Daculling]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', '
')What a fascinating twist this is. Like we've been watching for the storm, and suddenly see the meteor inbound from a different direction.

[Gazzatrone]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gego', 'A')t least Gazzatrone should show up and apologize for wiping the smudge off the windows so we could see clearer the depressing future.

[Zardoz]

Deepest sympathies from all of us, Gazzatrone. What a terrible way to lose a loved one.

[Revi]

Gazzatrone, so sorry for your loss.

[joewp]

Gazzatrone, I can't believe what a shock this must have been. We're all very sad for you. Dedicating this thread to her will help keep her memory alive. It was very appropriate. Keep an eye on your nephew, he'll need it.

[coyote]

Gazzatrone, I know words don't mean much... but I'm terribly sorry. White light for you and your family.

[gego]

The loss of your sister before she lived a full life span is tragic.

I extend my sympathy to your family and you, and hope you can find islands of comfort while sailing through this maelstrom.

[WildRose]

My deepest sympathy, Gazzatrone.

Your recent loss reminds me, once again, that we can never know all that lies ahead of us.

[Gazzatrone]

Thank you everyone for your kind words. At this time words are seeming to fail everyone who knew my sister, but hearing so much support strengthens the heart.

Gareth

[LGW]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gazzatrone', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gego', '
')
For my Sister Lisa Rachel Johnson 1976 - 2006

[gego]

I hope that Gazzatrone intended this thread continue.

The relationship between a declining EROEI (declining at the rate of 3.5%) and the resulting net oil available (as a percentage of gross production) is graphically represented as follows:

This more or less matches the past, but as discussed before the rate of decline in EROEI may change in the future (probably for the worse).

Each 20 years the EROEI ratio halves, but there at first little change in the % of oil available to us, but as the EROEI progresses toward 1:1 the loss of oil available to us accelerates. The two curves cross when EROEI = 1:1, the theoretical date of the end of the oil age.

There is an additional irony in this thread since I think this chart represents the phenomenon involved in the decline in a human life also. Life involves input of energy and output of energy. Anyone with advancing age recognizes that the output is falling. Again this natural progression highlights the tragedy in the death of Lisa at 30, so far away from her declining years.

[JPL]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gego', 'I') hope that Gazzatrone intended this thread continue.

...

There is an additional irony in this thread since I think this chart represents the phenomenon involved in the decline in a human life also. Life involves input of energy and output of energy. Anyone with advancing age recognizes that the output is falling. Again this natural progression highlights the tragedy in the death of Lisa at 30, so far away from her declining years.

[Revi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gego', 'I') hope that Gazzatrone intended this thread continue.

The relationship between a declining EROEI (declining at the rate of 3.5%) and the resulting net oil available (as a percentage of gross production) is graphically represented as follows:

This more or less matches the past, but as discussed before the rate of decline in EROEI may change in the future (probably for the worse).

Each 20 years the EROEI ratio halves, but there at first little change in the % of oil available to us, but as the EROEI progresses toward 1:1 the loss of oil available to us accelerates. The two curves cross when EROEI = 1:1, the theoretical date of the end of the oil age.
.