Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Attention :Mr Bill

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Attention :Mr Bill

Unread postby BAM » Sun 17 Dec 2006, 03:20:25

What's your take on this article?

http://www.halturnershow.com/ChinaToDumpUSDollars.html

Will it be all over for the US on Monday?
User avatar
BAM
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 36
Joined: Thu 24 Jun 2004, 03:00:00

Re: Attention :Mr Bill

Unread postby uNkNowN ElEmEnt » Sun 17 Dec 2006, 03:54:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here will be a central bank, most probably in Asia, who will start the move away from the dollar and when it happens, you're going to see other central bankers covertly trying to follow. The move will magnify very quickly and it could become a full-fledged panic and a dollar collapse."

The Fed is struggling right now to contain inflation and stimulate economic growth. All the Fed is doing right now with all their grand policy shifts is using a lot of propaganda and market massaging to try to prevent a financial panic."


looks like they are going to try and move things slowly so that it takes 2-3 years but holy crap.... perspectives?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')rabs to the rescue?

In a strange twist of fate, Arabs and OPEC may come to the rescue of the U.S.!

Senior officials in OPEC made clear that they too would be severely harmed if the U.S. Dollar collapsed, and hinted they "would not be inclined to sell oil to any particular nation that intentionally caused such a collapse."

This was a thinly veiled threat to China, which depends heavily on OPEC oil for its rapidly developing energy needs.

The OPEC officials even went so far as to say "Since China lacks the ability to project their military power, OPEC nations need not worry about any Chinese military response to an oil cut-off."

Such brutally candid remarks will not sit well with China; and signal ominous things for the U.S. .

Arabs and OPEC will want something in return for saving the U.S. from economic collapse and it is already widely speculated what they want will be a complete change in U.S. backing of Israel in the Middle East.

If such demands are made by the oil-rich Arabs, the U.S. would be left with little choice but to virtually abandon the jewish state to preserve itself.
User avatar
uNkNowN ElEmEnt
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 2587
Joined: Sat 04 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Location: perpetual state of exhaustion

Re: Attention :Mr Bill

Unread postby GoIllini » Sun 17 Dec 2006, 04:10:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('uNkNowN ElEmEnt', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here will be a central bank, most probably in Asia, who will start the move away from the dollar and when it happens, you're going to see other central bankers covertly trying to follow. The move will magnify very quickly and it could become a full-fledged panic and a dollar collapse."

The Fed is struggling right now to contain inflation and stimulate economic growth. All the Fed is doing right now with all their grand policy shifts is using a lot of propaganda and market massaging to try to prevent a financial panic."


looks like they are going to try and move things slowly so that it takes 2-3 years but holy crap.... perspectives?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')rabs to the rescue?

In a strange twist of fate, Arabs and OPEC may come to the rescue of the U.S.!

Senior officials in OPEC made clear that they too would be severely harmed if the U.S. Dollar collapsed, and hinted they "would not be inclined to sell oil to any particular nation that intentionally caused such a collapse."

This was a thinly veiled threat to China, which depends heavily on OPEC oil for its rapidly developing energy needs.

The OPEC officials even went so far as to say "Since China lacks the ability to project their military power, OPEC nations need not worry about any Chinese military response to an oil cut-off."

Such brutally candid remarks will not sit well with China; and signal ominous things for the U.S. .

Arabs and OPEC will want something in return for saving the U.S. from economic collapse and it is already widely speculated what they want will be a complete change in U.S. backing of Israel in the Middle East.

If such demands are made by the oil-rich Arabs, the U.S. would be left with little choice but to virtually abandon the jewish state to preserve itself.


This sounds made-up.

I worked for a few traders this summer, and when they were losing money, the last thing they did was dumped a security overnight- and they were playing with only millions of dollars- not trillions. Most groups want to avoid moving the market, because it costs them money.

The story sounds like it was written by a tenth-grader, and some of it seemed to follow this logical progression of someone inventing stuff, but it also seemed like this person wasn't informed enough about the markets to develop plausible fabrications.
User avatar
GoIllini
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 765
Joined: Sat 05 Mar 2005, 04:00:00
Top

Re: Attention :Mr Bill

Unread postby americandream » Sun 17 Dec 2006, 04:25:25

Why would China kill the goose (US consumers) thats laying its golden egg (its dollar trade derived time driven wealth surplus) unless it has reason the believe that sudden market convulsions, swift dollar asset losses and the loss of its core market are a preferred alternative to the current dollar asset devaluation its suffering.

However, humility must give way to those who know more than I do and to that extent, if anyone can add some logic to this picture, please do so.
americandream
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 8650
Joined: Mon 18 Oct 2004, 03:00:00

Re: Attention :Mr Bill

Unread postby BAM » Sun 17 Dec 2006, 04:28:34

Is this guy for real!!

Just had a look at his main page and here are the stories

*** BREAKING NEWS ***
OPEC ANNOUNCES IT WILL ABANDON U.S. DOLLAR!
EVENTS MOVING WITH STUNNING SPEED AFTER CHINA SAYS IT WILL DUMP ONE TRILLION IN U.S. CASH RESERVES!

and

** BREAKING NEWS ***
BANKS "CAPPING" WITHDRAWALS AT $1,000 MAX!!
REPORTS COMING IN THAT PEOPLE ON LINE FOR AN HOUR; TOLD THEY COULD ONLY WITHDRAW ONE THOUSAND DOLLARS!

http://www.halturnershow.com/index.html
User avatar
BAM
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 36
Joined: Thu 24 Jun 2004, 03:00:00

Re: Attention :Mr Bill

Unread postby americandream » Sun 17 Dec 2006, 04:36:03

Wikipedia describes the guy as an ethno Turkish-Iranian pro-white US nationalist (at this point I'm severly confussed)

I wish these Iranians would make their minds up......lol

......nuts.
americandream
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 8650
Joined: Mon 18 Oct 2004, 03:00:00

Re: Attention :Mr Bill

Unread postby dukey » Sun 17 Dec 2006, 11:08:24

if china is buying all the american t-bills. And they only get 1 or 2% on their investment and they have to wait 6 months until this investment matures. What happens if the dollar slides in value during this time. And it has been sliding in value recently. Why would china want to continue buying US debt and lose money on it ? It seems mad the government has stopped the M3 money supply report. It means the government could simply pay the chinese back with money they printed out of thin air and because no one knows how much money is in circulation, no one would have a clue.
User avatar
dukey
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2248
Joined: Sun 20 Feb 2005, 04:00:00

Re: Attention :Mr Bill

Unread postby jeezlouise » Sun 17 Dec 2006, 11:20:55

Priceless. This man's media outlet seems to be the Aryan Nation's version of the Weekly World News. Funny how everyone's freaking out about the "Ay-rabs", locking up brown people all over the world on flimsy evidence or no evidence at all... and asshats like Hal Turner can openly advocate for violent overthrow of the U.S. government without raising an eyebrow. This should be especially disconcerting to the FBI, seeing as how there are hundreds of thousands of brainwashed retards who take this idea very seriously and would be eager to try it out if the opportunity presented itself... during a sustained economic panic for instance...
User avatar
jeezlouise
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 298
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2006, 04:00:00

Re: Attention :Mr Bill

Unread postby firestarter » Sun 17 Dec 2006, 12:32:23

That's the Internet for you. Bullshit travels around the world
at the speed of light.
User avatar
firestarter
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1171
Joined: Sun 19 Mar 2006, 04:00:00

Re: Attention :Mr Bill

Unread postby GoIllini » Sun 17 Dec 2006, 13:12:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dukey', 'i')f china is buying all the american t-bills. And they only get 1 or 2% on their investment and they have to wait 6 months until this investment matures. What happens if the dollar slides in value during this time. And it has been sliding in value recently. Why would china want to continue buying US debt and lose money on it ? It seems mad the government has stopped the M3 money supply report. It means the government could simply pay the chinese back with money they printed out of thin air and because no one knows how much money is in circulation, no one would have a clue.


I think it's stupid that the Fed stopped the M3 report, too, and I haven't even bought the whole "The Fed Is Part of Some Big Conspiracy" idea.

Still, I don't think it's stupid.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')riceless. This man's media outlet seems to be the Aryan Nation's version of the Weekly World News. Funny how everyone's freaking out about the "Ay-rabs", locking up brown people all over the world on flimsy evidence or no evidence at all... and asshats like Hal Turner can openly advocate for violent overthrow of the U.S. government without raising an eyebrow. This should be especially disconcerting to the FBI, seeing as how there are hundreds of thousands of brainwashed retards who take this idea very seriously and would be eager to try it out if the opportunity presented itself... during a sustained economic panic for instance...

The difference is that the Arabs (AKA the Janjaweed militias in Darfur) are, in a few isolated instances, actually oppressing people, while most of the freepers and crazies are just babbling on about their stupid ideas.

Are police more concerned about hunting down serial killers or people who talk about why murdering some people might be good? I'm not saying it's right to advocate doing something illegal, but there's a good reason we actually go after people who are doing stuff rather than people who are talking about stuff.
User avatar
GoIllini
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 765
Joined: Sat 05 Mar 2005, 04:00:00
Top

Re: Attention :Mr Bill

Unread postby jeezlouise » Sun 17 Dec 2006, 15:20:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', 'A')re police more concerned about hunting down serial killers or people who talk about why murdering some people might be good? I'm not saying it's right to advocate doing something illegal, but there's a good reason we actually go after people who are doing stuff rather than people who are talking about stuff.


That's just it... What's the line between the two? If a group hasn't acted yet, at what point does talking about doing stuff become doing stuff? Ask Rashid Rauf or Jose Padilla. If the FBI is doing its job I'm sure it could find plenty of concrete plans and other "actionable intelligence" amongst various Aryan militia groups here at home. Or has domestic terrorism just been lumped in with 90's nostalgia?

Anyway, my point was that this "information" appeared on an obviously senstionalist website and nowhere else, and as such is questionable material. A dime-a-dozen white-power radio host has a source inside the delegation to China? Somehow I doubt it.
User avatar
jeezlouise
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 298
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2006, 04:00:00
Top

Re: Attention :Mr Bill

Unread postby americandream » Sun 17 Dec 2006, 16:11:58

Turkish-Iranian white nationalists, Ay-rabs, Aryans, white power, terrorists, Chinese communist dollar investors, Neo-Cons, Zionists, Holocaust Deniers.......help....let me out of this asylum!
americandream
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 8650
Joined: Mon 18 Oct 2004, 03:00:00

Re: Attention :Mr Bill

Unread postby americandream » Sun 17 Dec 2006, 16:51:28

A very quiet start to the FX week. There was little significant news over the weekend and dealers describe early trading as virtually non-existent.
americandream
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 8650
Joined: Mon 18 Oct 2004, 03:00:00

Re: Attention :Mr Bill

Unread postby SinisterBlueCat » Sun 17 Dec 2006, 23:37:55

this is fearmongering at its finest. you really think the chinese called up hal turner to inform them of their intent to dump 1 trillion in us reserves tomorrow??

do they even have that much to dump?

and if they were going to dump, to whom would they be dumping it on...meaning, who exactly would buy it?

the chinese have, over thousands of years, perfected the art of being subtle...i think they are going to slowly diversify away from the dollar all the while smiling and making nicey nice talk with the us...not run screaming out of the threater like their hair was on fire.

besides my scam-o-meter says to me that anyone who tells me the chinese are "going to dump 1 trillion in US reserves tomorrow!!" has an agenda.
User avatar
SinisterBlueCat
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 885
Joined: Tue 06 Sep 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Attention :Mr Bill

Unread postby uNkNowN ElEmEnt » Mon 18 Dec 2006, 00:10:19

Very interesting perspectives here. Also China isn't the only one who holds a lot of US T-bills, if memory serves (which it usually does with frightening accuracy) Japan also holds a hell of a lot.

If they were to announce a dump it would frighten the market making their bills crash before they got to it (to a certain extent) so what you say makes sense.
User avatar
uNkNowN ElEmEnt
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 2587
Joined: Sat 04 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Location: perpetual state of exhaustion

Re: Attention :Mr Bill

Unread postby Scactha » Mon 18 Dec 2006, 05:03:26

Henry C K Lieu at A-Times comments on this problem for the chinese in his latest editorial. Much of his point can be boiled down to the fact that the dollar hegemony is entangling China with the US and the chinese is realising this. A 'bad scenario' like this might just be considered a lesser evil in comparison.
User avatar
Scactha
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 118
Joined: Thu 15 Jun 2006, 03:00:00
Location: Gothenburg, Sweden

Re: Attention :Mr Bill

Unread postby Doly » Mon 18 Dec 2006, 07:40:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Scactha', 'M')uch of his point can be boiled down to the fact that the dollar hegemony is entangling China with the US and the chinese is realising this.


I don't think the Chinese have just noticed their economy is entangled with the US. What they may have noticed only a few years ago is that this fact may be a bad thing.
User avatar
Doly
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 4370
Joined: Fri 03 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Top

Re: Attention :Mr Bill

Unread postby MrBill » Mon 18 Dec 2006, 11:06:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BAM', 'W')hat's your take on this article?

http://www.halturnershow.com/ChinaToDumpUSDollars.html

Will it be all over for the US on Monday?


Hmm, sorry for the late response. I just saw your headline now. I have not read the article, yet. I see many others already have, and seriously doubt its veraccuracy? Me too!

Policy makers, such as central banks and finance ministers; supranationals, such as the IMF and OECD; as well as private forecasters and journalists as policy influencers have been writing and talking about the US' fiscal imbalances for a very long time. This is not a new issue.

This is an issue that OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers as well as Asian central banks are very well aware of. Everyone knows we have a problem on our hands, but we do not quite know what to do about it? Everyone has been hitching a freeride on faster global growth financed by the US' expanding trade and budget deficits financed by debt.

The Chinese are as aware of this as are OPEC nations. But of course the Chinese are not keen to see $200 billion a year in trade drop-off overnight, while their $1 trillion in foreign exchange reserves devalue, nor are oil exporters secretly hoping that US and world demand drops by 25-percent sending the price of crude 50-percent lower. Especially as they are fond of buying stuff denominated in euros, and their own currencies are linked or pegged to the dollar as well.

Clearly, it cannot go on. However, now that everyone has so much skin in the game, all they can do is slowly diversify their FX holdings away from the US dollar, while developing other sources of demand. However, also as clearly, an unforeseen external shock could cause major problems at the sametime.

Not to be trite, but US policy makers should also be clearly seeing the writing on the wall as well and stop blaming China or anyone else for their own fiscal and monetary prolifigy. Even if it is a shared problem, I would sooner be the creditor and the exporter than the debtor and importer when trade and credit is finally cut-off.

The US' soft, white underbelly is showing all of its weaknesses, and if China is incapable of projecting military power then you have to say the US has the same problem because winning a war is not the same as enforcing the peace, and its economic power is being underwritten by its creditors. Not a position of strength.
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
User avatar
MrBill
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 5630
Joined: Thu 15 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Eurasia
Top

Re: Attention :Mr Bill

Unread postby BAM » Mon 18 Dec 2006, 16:03:36

Thanks for the reply Mr Bill.

Out of interest when the USD finally collapses do you think all currencies will appreciate in value against her or only a selected few?

If all rise in value would that not offset any increase in the price of oil?

Do you think the economic impact on the rest of the world of a collapsing USD is being exaggerated or will it be as grim as some suggest?
User avatar
BAM
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 36
Joined: Thu 24 Jun 2004, 03:00:00

Re: Attention :Mr Bill

Unread postby MrBill » Tue 19 Dec 2006, 05:50:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BAM', 'T')hanks for the reply Mr Bill.

Out of interest when the USD finally collapses do you think all currencies will appreciate in value against her or only a selected few?

If all rise in value would that not offset any increase in the price of oil?

Do you think the economic impact on the rest of the world of a collapsing USD is being exaggerated or will it be as grim as some suggest?


Hello BAM, you may want to review some of my early posts where I have addressed all of these questions before. Especially the strength of the euro agains the yen and the yuan and the trade frictions that causes.

I think USD weakness stemming from a crisis in confidence will cause the dollar to fall against a basket of currencies, but due to central bank interference against some more than others. I note that the USD is showing similar strength and weakness against both the CHF and the RUB despite the franc and the ruble having very little in common with one another other than being not dollars. But their trading pattern diverges markedly from the JPY for example.

But yes, if a basket of currencies appreciate against the dollar, and if crude prices increase in nominal terms as measured in dollars, then the appreciation will help offset the higher costs in local currency terms.

However, keep in mind, not all currencies are freely traded and many are either pegged to the dollar or are not convertible. Under that scenario they would pay higher prices in both nominal and real terms for their imported energy needs.

Or if they are in fact oil producers with their currency pegged to the dollar they would receive less revenue as measured in a basket of foreign currencies, so their purchasing power per barrel of oil would decrease.
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
User avatar
MrBill
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 5630
Joined: Thu 15 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Eurasia
Top

Next

Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

cron