by MrBill » Mon 18 Dec 2006, 11:06:10
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BAM', 'W')hat's your take on this article?
http://www.halturnershow.com/ChinaToDumpUSDollars.htmlWill it be all over for the US on Monday?
Hmm, sorry for the late response. I just saw your headline now. I have not read the article, yet. I see many others already have, and seriously doubt its veraccuracy? Me too!
Policy makers, such as central banks and finance ministers; supranationals, such as the IMF and OECD; as well as private forecasters and journalists as policy influencers have been writing and talking about the US' fiscal imbalances for a very long time. This is not a new issue.
This is an issue that OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers as well as Asian central banks are very well aware of. Everyone knows we have a problem on our hands, but we do not quite know what to do about it? Everyone has been hitching a freeride on faster global growth financed by the US' expanding trade and budget deficits financed by debt.
The Chinese are as aware of this as are OPEC nations. But of course the Chinese are not keen to see $200 billion a year in trade drop-off overnight, while their $1 trillion in foreign exchange reserves devalue, nor are oil exporters secretly hoping that US and world demand drops by 25-percent sending the price of crude 50-percent lower. Especially as they are fond of buying stuff denominated in euros, and their own currencies are linked or pegged to the dollar as well.
Clearly, it cannot go on. However, now that everyone has so much skin in the game, all they can do is slowly diversify their FX holdings away from the US dollar, while developing other sources of demand. However, also as clearly, an unforeseen external shock could cause major problems at the sametime.
Not to be trite, but US policy makers should also be clearly seeing the writing on the wall as well and stop blaming China or anyone else for their own fiscal and monetary prolifigy. Even if it is a shared problem, I would sooner be the creditor and the exporter than the debtor and importer when trade and credit is finally cut-off.
The US' soft, white underbelly is showing all of its weaknesses, and if China is incapable of projecting military power then you have to say the US has the same problem because winning a war is not the same as enforcing the peace, and its economic power is being underwritten by its creditors. Not a position of strength.
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.