[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'P')V producers are hard-pressed right now to keep up with demand. I wouldn't worry about "spurring development" of this alternative, there is huge demand right now worldwide.

[gego]

Earlier I posted a little table showing the percentages of gross production that would be left after paying the cost of production in energy terms.

I have been thinking about this and wanted to highlight the idea because I think that the dry presentation of the table may not have the impact that it should.

If you notice going from a 100:1 to a 50:1 EROEI (a halving) only changed the % we had available from 99% to 98%, not much of a loss in net production available. Assuming 1,000,000 barrels of production instead of having 990,000 left, we would have had 980,000 left or only experienced a loss of 10,000 from this halving. Note that this change in EROEI really happened from 1930 to 1950 according to the original post in this thread.

It is a little unclear where we are today as far as the EROEI for oil, but let us assume that we are near 6.25:1 for the year 2010. (If anything we are lower than that.) In going from 12.5:1 to 6.25:1 from 1990 to 2010 the loss on 1,000,000 barrels of production would have been 80,000 barrels (920,000-840,000). The EROEI ratio halved, just as it did going from 100:1 to 50:1, but the loss of available production because of increased energy cost was 80,000 barrels instead of 10,000 barrels.

If the EROEI falls by 1/2 again from 2010 to 2030, going from 6.25:1 to 3.125:1 the loss in on 1,000,000 barrels of gross production would be 160,000 barrels (840,000-680,000). At a ratio of 3.125:1, the available production out of 1,000,000 barrels is only 680,000 after subtracting the barrels that must be used to produce that 1,000,000 barrels.

Another halving from 3.125:1 to 1.5625:1 gives an astounding loss of 320,000 barrels out of 1,000,000 and at 1.5625:1 all that is available out of 1,000,000 barrels for human use is 360,000 barrels; remember that at 100:1 back in 1930, 990,000 barrels were left.

I am sorry to labor into all these numbers, but I suspect that if you wade through this, you will be as astounded as I am at what a dramatic effect on net energy available these low EROEI ratios have. I doubt seriously that when people hear that the era of cheap oil is gone that they really have a clue what that means.

And again, this escalation of cost will continue irrespective of peak oil; all the cheap oil has been found. Add the loss in gross production after we hit peak, and the "perfect storm" does not nearly convey the true picture.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gego', '[') There may be waste, but conservation to eliminate this waste is not going to do much in face of the huge loss of energy available to us.

You and I clearly see the proportions of this in extremely different terms.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'i')n developing countries where I see functioning local economies thriving on a mere fraction of the energy consumed for example in the USA.

[JustinFrankl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'i')n developing countries where I see functioning local economies thriving on a mere fraction of the energy consumed for example in the USA.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JustinFrankl', 'S')ince they have electricity and Internet access at one of these places, then perhaps they aren't very self-contained. How much do these places you visit, Ibon, need electricity?

[coyote]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gego', 'M')aybe others of you understood the combined effect, but to me, this thread is a lightbulb thread because I realized that both these factors will operate separately post peak; production will decline at some rate, and independent of that EROEI will keep falling for that production (energy cost of that production will keep rising).

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', '.')..I didn't realize until recently that the peaking of light sweet crude (collapsing the EROEI of petroleum) may wind up being the big event, though not necessarily the one that makes the headlines.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'i')n developing countries where I see functioning local economies thriving on a mere fraction of the energy consumed for example in the USA.

[Madpaddy]

Ibon wrote,

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')n the island I am on in Thailand, Koh Jum, there is no electricity and only dirt roads. The government provides everyone with a legal address free solar panels. Some people have diesel generators as do the small tourist resorts. Transportation is mainly small motorbikes with a couple of pick up trucks. Population is about 2000 people and most live from fishing, rubber tree plantations and tourism.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'B')ut they are examples, and there are many of them, of communities with local economies that consume a fraction of the fossil fuels as say in the USA. My point is only that they are examples of organized societies using little energy.

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'M')aybe it will be easier for them to figure out a transformation to a sustainable society, maybe not.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'M')aybe it will be easier for them to figure out a transformation to a sustainable society, maybe not.

[Madpaddy]

Doly,

It doesn't happen often but I disagree with your last post.

What does it matter if Europeans were living sustainably a couple of centuries ago. 4 decades ago my parents and my peers parents lived in houses with no electricity and farmed the land. The farms have made way for roads and sprawl and their kids work 50 hours a week in IT, the Construction industry or middle management for some multinational. Most of my friends think a vegetable is someone with a serious brain injury, meat is an attractive member of the opposite sex and a community is some sort of a religious order.

When TSHTF they'll be out eating grass from the fields because they see the cows doing it.

No, we have, to a huge extent lost any of the advantage we had even 40 years ago. IMO.

I still love you though.
MP

[Revi]

I was talking to some friends that have a small farm about what's coming. I don't think it's too early to start to train a horse. The way I see it in five years or less it will be too expensive to use gasoline and diesel to farm or drag logs out of the woods. When gas or diesel goes to $10 or more per gallon the products that come from the land are going to have to go up by 3 times as well. They will go up, but maybe not enough. I can see using a horse with a small gasoline winch to twitch trees out, however. The idea of spending $10 of diesel to get $5 worth of stuff will change the economics of having a horse.

This thread really depressed me at first, but I am now adjusting myself and my plans to a more rapid descent. It's still a bummer. I thought about it, and yes, it will probably go downhill a lot quicker than we thought.

[AirlinePilot]

If your able to travel now I would suggest doing it in the next year or two. I personally have seen a lot (thanks US Navy!) But my family has not. We plan on some short trips to lots of places over the next year or two. After that I see ugly things happening, especially with regard to air travel.

I think there is a time coming soon (3-5yrs) where after that, not much long distance travel will be done again (if ever). So seeing some things now, especially for the younger generation is important I think.

Two years ago, I never would have pictured myself believing this.

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'I')f your able to travel now I would suggest doing it in the next year or two. I personally have seen a lot (thanks US Navy!) But my family has not. We plan on some short trips to lots of places over the next year or two. After that I see ugly things happening, especially with regard to air travel.

I think there is a time coming soon (3-5yrs) where after that, not much long distance travel will be done again (if ever). So seeing some things now, especially for the younger generation is important I think.

Two years ago, I never would have pictured myself believing this.

[gego]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')
Conservation to eliminate waste was not the point of my post. That would suggest that we could go on with the status quo as long as we practice conservation of wasteful energy habits.
The silver lining I try to present is related to the still unknown cultural adaptability on the energy descent. That is cultural adaptability in a radically powered down culture for the USA as an example which I see an inevitable consequence of the huge loss of energy availabe to us as you said.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'I') think there is a time coming soon (3-5yrs) where after that, not much long distance travel will be done again (if ever). So seeing some things now, especially for the younger generation is important I think.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'H')owever it does not mean, that ALL flying will be gone.
Your grandkids will still have this once (or rather twice...) in life time experience.