[Aaron]

Lot's of new folks around recently, so I thought I'd do another "quick-look" post.

The most basic question:

When is Peak Oil?

Fossil Fuels are Finite. Oil is a fossil fuel.

Peak Oil boils down to an argument about how much conventional oil will ultimately be recovered world-wide. How much oil we can eventually recover, determines how much oil we can consume; how quickly & for how long. The US Geological Survey, CERA & others predict around 4 trillion barrels recoverable, while others predict it's half that amount. The bulk of the difference between these estimates, are the OPEC "paper barrels", added to OPEC oil reserve estimates during the 1980's. Give or take some percentage, if these "paper barrels" actually exist & are recoverable, then total world oil reserves are closer to the USGS estimate. If not, then it's closer to the smaller estimate. Peak oil is really about these "paper barrels".

Paper Barrels = True (Peak around 2030)
Paper Barrels = False (Peak right about now)

Are they real?

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'A')re they real?

[MrMambo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '
')

Paper Barrels = True (Peak around 2030)
Paper Barrels = False (Peak right about now)

Are they real?

[ReserveGrowthRulz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'A')re they real?

[davep]

ReserveGrowthRulz, even the blog you refer to says "Now, it's true that OPEC updates its reserves figures in an unorthodox way, and the additions seem fishy on the face of it. Nevertheless, it is silly to think that OPEC reserves do not grow..."

The fact that OPEC reserves grew massively in the eighties during the quota system (with very little corresponding growth in discoveries) seems quite unambiguous. It was an accounting scam.

There may well be some level of increasing of reserves (as seen in Norway and elsewhere), but not in the fashion shown by OPEC. So it appears that the true picture is somewhere in-between the two extremes. The article doesn't make any serious attempt to correlate any discoveries with the the 1980-onwards (non-OPEC) increases in reserves either.

[PWALPOCO]

I hope Ghawars "paper barrels" are more real than the Kuwaitis ones are. Recent accounts would suggest Burgan isnt as big as most people thought.

Time will tell though , so no need to fret about what will or wont happen, the production will be whatever the production will be.

Paul

[razved]

A parametric analysis provides perspective on the problem

Future U.S. per capita petroleum supply will be a function of:

* World peak production value
* Peak year
* U.S. population growth
* Post-peak annual depletion rate
* U.S. share of world production

If we assume a U.S. population of 350-375E6 in 2050, a 2% depletion rate, and a 25% U.S. share of world production (all optimistic values), a 90 mmbd peak in 2015 would yield a U.S. per capita supply (as a percentage of the 2005 level) of:

* 83% in 2025 (69% for more conservative assumptions)
* 45% in 2050 (36% for more conservative assumptions)

A parametric analysis of the five-factor space, with peak production levels up to 120 mmbd and peak years up to 2030, provides a broad picture of our future.

The world's fossil hydrocarbon reserves were produced over a ~400E6 year period.
We are consuming them a million times more rapidly than the rate at which they were formed.

If a rational course of action (none currently apparent) is not begun now, our economy will regressing toward that of 1850, albeit with a population that will be ten times larger.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Because we don't think about future generations, they will never forget us."
-Henrik Tikkanen-

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'P')eak Oil boils down to an argument about how much conventional oil will ultimately be recovered world-wide. How much oil we can eventually recover, determines how much oil we can consume; how quickly & for how long. The US Geological Survey, CERA & others predict around 4 trillion barrels recoverable, while others predict it's half that amount.

[Cyrus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'L')ot's of new folks around recently, so I thought I'd do another "quick-look" post.

The most basic question:

When is Peak Oil?

Fossil Fuels are Finite. Oil is a fossil fuel.

Peak Oil boils down to an argument about how much conventional oil will ultimately be recovered world-wide. How much oil we can eventually recover, determines how much oil we can consume; how quickly & for how long. The US Geological Survey, CERA & others predict around 4 trillion barrels recoverable, while others predict it's half that amount. The bulk of the difference between these estimates, are the OPEC "paper barrels", added to OPEC oil reserve estimates during the 1980's. Give or take some percentage, if these "paper barrels" actually exist & are recoverable, then total world oil reserves are closer to the USGS estimate. If not, then it's closer to the smaller estimate. Peak oil is really about these "paper barrels".

Paper Barrels = True (Peak around 2030)
Paper Barrels = False (Peak right about now)

Are they real?

[ReserveGrowthRulz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '
')
The fact that OPEC reserves grew massively in the eighties during the quota system (with very little corresponding growth in discoveries) seems quite unambiguous. It was an accounting scam.

[ReserveGrowthRulz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PWALPOCO', '
')
Time will tell though , so no need to fret about what will or wont happen, the production will be whatever the production will be.

Paul

[thuja]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'E')ven these high estimates can be misleading. Some forecasters include unconventional oil in the amount. This might be valid in terms of how much oil could ever be extracted but is not helpful in determining the peak date, since these different types of oil have different depletion profiles. The main factor in determining peak is the amount of extractable conventional oil. How much variation is there in that?

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReserveGrowthRulz', 'W')hen reserve growth can be between 2X and 10X, it wouldn't be a surprise to me to have large jumps in state sanctioned reserve numbers every number of decades, rather than year to year revisions as is done in the States.

[MrBill]

It is my understanding that even in known, conventional oilfields that traditional extraction techniques have been ineffective at withdrawing even half of the estimated reserves? If true, better technology will aid the time life and total output of these fields.

Similar to the argument of sticking in deeper straws into the milkshake, I suppose, but not inconequential if another 5, 10, 15 percent or more is ultimately recoverable from known fields versus the energy and expense of making new finds.

Any thoughts from someone who knows about geology and petroleum engineering? Thanks.

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'I')t is my understanding that even in known, conventional oilfields that traditional extraction techniques have been ineffective at withdrawing even half of the estimated reserves? If true, better technology will aid the time life and total output of these fields.

Similar to the argument of sticking in deeper straws into the milkshake, I suppose, but not inconequential if another 5, 10, 15 percent or more is ultimately recoverable from known fields versus the energy and expense of making new finds.

Any thoughts from someone who knows about geology and petroleum engineering? Thanks.

[Gazzatrone]

Peak Oil in a paragraph aye?

Well I've been musing for the past few weeks as to what Peak Oil actually is beyond the concept of Hubbert's Peak. There are many theories and ways to define what Peak Oil is. Many see it as a physical mechanism, and prove its existence and reality by throwing a load of production statistics around. But I have problems with this. Firstly I will admit that I too have posted the odd graph on here, as they are an effective means of communicating an arguement or position. But again, from my understanding P.O is more than just graphs, figures and statistics.

I offer 3 key fundemental premises for what Peak Oil is from my understanding of my time here

Peak Oil is…

1) The point at which Oil production lessens, i.e the point where we will have the most oil that is physically possible to extract.

2) A descriptive term, defining the point at which Humanities reliance on Oil to power its existence is irrevocably changed forever.

3) An ambiguous movement that attempts to unify the fragmented studies of Oil depletion that embodies statistics, social behaviour, geo-politics and the many sciences that involve Oil depletion

I know this is 3 paragraphs but as stated, I believe that Peak Oil has grown beyond Hubbert's initial notion of oil production.

Edit
Adding a Sarcastic 4th but true all the same

4) The End of the World as you know it.

[ReserveGrowthRulz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '
')
Can any real expert comment?

[ReserveGrowthRulz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'I')t is my understanding that even in known, conventional oilfields that traditional extraction techniques have been ineffective at withdrawing even half of the estimated reserves? If true, better technology will aid the time life and total output of these fields.

Similar to the argument of sticking in deeper straws into the milkshake, I suppose, but not inconequential if another 5, 10, 15 percent or more is ultimately recoverable from known fields versus the energy and expense of making new finds.

Any thoughts from someone who knows about geology and petroleum engineering? Thanks.

[NEOPO]

17 replies - 5 from the same person who is of course diametrically opposed to most of the ideas espoused here............

Uhm peak oil in a paragraph or a sentence...how bout one word?

INEVITABILITY
I would not go about subscribing inevitability to everything like some do but when it comes to conventional oil then yes.
If you can look through the paper barrels its rather easy to see that we are way past peak yet the economic controls have kept the 1st world isolated from many of its economic ill effects.

One is left wondering how long can the illusion be maintained.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReserveGrowthRulz', '
')
50% recovery factor is outstanding. Reference the sprayberry in Texas at perhaps 10-15%, normal recoveries of perhaps 33%, 50% is outstanding, 100% would be mining. More straws into the milkshake would change recovery in the Sprayberry, but not Ghawar because of the efficiency of the existing system, unless we are talking stranded oil versus a straight recovery factor arguement. Salari estimates that another trillion barrels is available in existing fields with a 10% INCREMENTAL change in recovery factor. Seems reasonable. The volumes are not inconsequential, many of them will fall into the reserve growth category, and all of them have existing infrastructure in place to take advantage of the volumes involved. As to whether they are available at rates to move Peak date, or simply fight the good fight against decline through time, is a different question.