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The Last Days of the Dollar?

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: The Last Days of the Dollar?

Unread postby skiwi » Wed 08 Nov 2006, 21:01:28

Best Quotes of October 2006

All ya favorites and more in one place
Let us make him who shall nourish and sustain us. What shall we do to be invoked; to be remembered in the earth.
We have tried with our first creatures but we could not make them venerate us.
So let us try to make obedient respectful beings who shall
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Re: The Last Days of the Dollar?

Unread postby Euric » Sat 11 Nov 2006, 00:29:00

It seems the big news of the day is China's plan to diversify heavily out of dollars.

http://today.reuters.com/news/articlein ... -FOREX.xml


China's Central bank president is in Frankfurt and has made it clear that over the next few years China will continue to diversify its dollar reserves into other currencies.
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Re: The Last Days of the Dollar?

Unread postby Euric » Sat 11 Nov 2006, 00:45:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gego', 'I')f the US dollar is in trouble, then the British Pound, Austrailian Dollar, South African Rand and Canadian Dollar in even bigger trouble over the next two years. I think that only the Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen will do better than the dollar during this time frame.

Of course all measured against gold and silver should do poorly.

Just my take on it.



What are the reasons behind your argument? AUD, CAD, ZAR could be commodity plays, if your view is that prices are headed much lower? But why the GBP? I/R differentials still support the GBP over the USD or EUR and the BOE is still tightening? Why the JPY? Their ZIRP policy is still in effect and the BOJ/Min Fin would not like the JPY to appreciate against the dollar and hurt exports, while the JPY is already at record lows against the EUR, so I am not sure why you're bullish on the JPY? I can see the CHF as a safe haven investment, but then interest rates there are also very low, so I am not sure it is a natural play unless you're thinking about global problems, but then it seems to me that those kinds of conditions would support commodities, so again the AUD, CAD, ZAR would be also supported? Just trying to get inside your though process? Thanks.


The British pound won't last much after the dollar. The main problems affecting the dollar also effect the pound...extensive use of credit and personal loans borrowed against inflated house prices. The Pound's value is high because of the high interest rates (2 % higher then euro rates) the UK offers to secure investments to cover their debts.

The British had to increase the interest rate in order to keep the cash coming in.

The currencies that will survive the dollar crash will be those that don't have excessive debt weighing them down.

One thing that could trigger a dollar crash would be for the ECB to increase eurozone interest rates to match those of the UK and US. The dollar and pound can't compete with the euro on equal footing.
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Re: The Last Days of the Dollar?

Unread postby Revi » Sun 12 Nov 2006, 22:58:21

I just happened to pick up a copy of The Economist and thumbed to the dollar index in the back. The past few years it has said that the dollar was losing around 20% a year. This time I was shocked to see that it has lost over 37%. Something is going wrong. There is no investment apart from precious metals that can keep up with 37%. Basically that told me that anyone who holds on to dollars is losing at least 30% per year, over the past year, and that's assuming you can find an investment that'll give you 7% interest. Much better to turn dollars into solar panels, silver or something. it can't keep going down like this can it?
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Re: The Last Days of the Dollar?

Unread postby NTBKtrader » Tue 14 Nov 2006, 00:59:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') just happened to pick up a copy of The Economist and thumbed to the dollar index in the back. The past few years it has said that the dollar was losing around 20% a year. This time I was shocked to see that it has lost over 37%. Something is going wrong. There is no investment apart from precious metals that can keep up with 37%. Basically that told me that anyone who holds on to dollars is losing at least 30% per year, over the past year, and that's assuming you can find an investment that'll give you 7% interest. Much better to turn dollars into solar panels, silver or something. it can't keep going down like this can it?


Are you sure you are quoting the Economist correctly? The dollar vs which currency? The dollar is down, but I don't think that much...

http://www.billcara.com/archives/238b001.gif
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Re: The Last Days of the Dollar?

Unread postby mattduke » Tue 14 Nov 2006, 03:02:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I')t can't keep going down like this can it?

The dollar will go down until the trade deficit returns to zero and the Federal Reserve is abolished.
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Re: The Last Days of the Dollar?

Unread postby Revi » Tue 14 Nov 2006, 09:48:07

Great! The dollar seems like it may be on it's way down, but I think it'll take a while. I hope. Everybody is realizing that their money doesn't go as far as it used to. They will either tighten up or go bankrupt. Either way is bad for economic activity. I figure I am going to spend all my dollars within walking distance of my house if I can from now on. I think it's time to encourage the economy only within a small distance. We'll buy food at the farmer's market and our clothes within walking distance if possible. We won't be able to get all our needs met, but we'll be able to do a lot.
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Re: The Last Days of the Dollar?

Unread postby evilgenius » Tue 14 Nov 2006, 13:45:16

It might be advisable to build good will within your community. Buy your mechanic a six pack next time he does something to your car etc. Watch out for the meth addicts.

Along with gold and silver, stocks and physical holdings, I think oil holdings that don't have a questionable reserve problem. Also, any financial institution involved in fleshing out the Chinese banking system. I think the Chinese system is going to expand like the US system did in the late 19th century, fast and with the requisite busts along the way. Interesting how many old world financial institutions were involved in that and so many years later (after not just the great depression, but several minor ones and two world wars) are still there.

The future of China is more closely involved with that of the US than most people on this site want to believe.
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Re: The Last Days of the Dollar?

Unread postby Euric » Thu 16 Nov 2006, 14:24:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')I would sooner be unemployed in Canada where there is a chance to find a new job sooner rather than later than forced into quasi-early retirement at age 45 with no prospects except to start collecting my reduced pension at age 65 soon to be 67. Better to be in a dynamic labor market like London where anyone can get a job anytime by walking across the street. That is real job security.



Except that the new jobs will always pay less and offer less benefits. In countries like Canada, the US, and the UK, there is an abundance of low wage, working poor jobs. They exist because there are enough people in those countries willing to work for less and for the longer hours. In the EU, those type of jobs, when created get pretty much ignored by people who would rather collect unemployment then work like slaves for close to nothing.

People in those "dynamic labour market" countries rely on unsecured credit which does not exist in the EU. As a result their countries rely on higher interest rates to draw in investors to secure the credit.

Yet, these countries are at the end of the line. The interest rates are rising to the point that it is increasing personal bankruptcies and depressing the housing market.

When these countries economies collapse under the weight of their debts, they can then kiss their real job security good-bye.
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Re: The Last Days of the Dollar?

Unread postby threadbear » Thu 16 Nov 2006, 15:16:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Euric', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')I would sooner be unemployed in Canada where there is a chance to find a new job sooner rather than later than forced into quasi-early retirement at age 45 with no prospects except to start collecting my reduced pension at age 65 soon to be 67. Better to be in a dynamic labor market like London where anyone can get a job anytime by walking across the street. That is real job security.



Except that the new jobs will always pay less and offer less benefits. In countries like Canada, the US, and the UK, there is an abundance of low wage, working poor jobs. They exist because there are enough people in those countries willing to work for less and for the longer hours. In the EU, those type of jobs, when created get pretty much ignored by people who would rather collect unemployment then work like slaves for close to nothing.

People in those "dynamic labour market" countries rely on unsecured credit which does not exist in the EU. As a result their countries rely on higher interest rates to draw in investors to secure the credit.

Yet, these countries are at the end of the line. The interest rates are rising to the point that it is increasing personal bankruptcies and depressing the housing market.

When these countries economies collapse under the weight of their debts, they can then kiss their real job security good-bye.


Hear hear, Euric! Someone who can THINK. :)
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Re: The Last Days of the Dollar?

Unread postby Euric » Sat 18 Nov 2006, 01:15:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', ' ') Better to be in a dynamic labor market like London where anyone can get a job anytime by walking across the street. That is real job security.


Yes from Burger King to McDonalds or vice-versa.




$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '*')European as in Old Europe/core EU countries/not CEE


I see Mr. Bill shows his true colours here by using terms of the American Bush Iraq War backers. Now that Bush is losing in Iraq, it is Old Europe" that is having the last laugh.

I wonder if Mr. Bill is going to go down with his American compatriots when the dollar collapses, or will he be a Peter and deny any affiliation.

Tell us Billy Boy how loyal are you to your masters in Washington and New York?
Last edited by Euric on Sun 19 Nov 2006, 10:55:14, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: The Last Days of the Dollar?

Unread postby threadbear » Sat 18 Nov 2006, 14:32:34

From ZNet

"Then, I thought perversely, if a little inequity is good for us, a lot of it must be better.
After all, that seems to be the operating principle of the people currently in power in the nation's capital. They keep pushing in that direction.

"The accepted view in social science is that inequalities are an inevitable condition of economic success," economic professor, Jacques Mistral, a senior fellow at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, commented back in July."

http://www.zmag.org/content/showarticle ... emID=11307


From the Guardian:
A cloistered metropolitan elite is in denial about Britain:

From property TV shows to the politician's totem of middle England, public life is infused with a false assumption of affluence.

http://money.guardian.co.uk/news_/story ... 27,00.html
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Re: The Last Days of the Dollar?

Unread postby Euric » Sun 19 Nov 2006, 10:52:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '
')

From the Guardian:
A cloistered metropolitan elite is in denial about Britain:

From property TV shows to the politician's totem of middle England, public life is infused with a false assumption of affluence.

http://money.guardian.co.uk/news_/story ... 27,00.html



More from the UK:

http://firstrung.co.uk/articles.asp?pag ... cat=44-0-0


Why is Britain Broke?

http://www.fsponline-recommends.co.uk/p ... lbr&ofid=0
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Re: The Last Days of the Dollar?

Unread postby MrBill » Mon 20 Nov 2006, 05:34:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Euric', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', ' ') Better to be in a dynamic labor market like London where anyone can get a job anytime by walking across the street. That is real job security.


Yes from Burger King to McDonalds or vice-versa.




$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '*')European as in Old Europe/core EU countries/not CEE


I see Mr. Bill shows his true colours here by using terms of the American Bush Iraq War backers. Now that Bush is losing in Iraq, it is Old Europe" that is having the last laugh.

I wonder if Mr. Bill is going to go down with his American compatriots when the dollar collapses, or will he be a Peter and deny any affiliation.

Tell us Billy Boy how loyal are you to your masters in Washington and New York?


Well, considering I have been to New York and to Washington just once and have lived in Europe for the past 15-years I guess your cheap parting shot is a little wide of the mark.

What I do find amusing is Americans that live under a two party system instead of a real democracy and pretend to themselves that one Party is any different than the other. Sounds like pork barrel party sharing to me?

In the meantime I will do my own analysis. I would sooner make a mistake based on what I think I know than leave my thinking to others.
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
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Re: The Last Days of the Dollar?

Unread postby Euric » Tue 21 Nov 2006, 18:52:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Euric', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', ' ') Better to be in a dynamic labor market like London where anyone can get a job anytime by walking across the street. That is real job security.


Yes from Burger King to McDonalds or vice-versa.




$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '*')European as in Old Europe/core EU countries/not CEE


I see Mr. Bill shows his true colours here by using terms of the American Bush Iraq War backers. Now that Bush is losing in Iraq, it is Old Europe" that is having the last laugh.

I wonder if Mr. Bill is going to go down with his American compatriots when the dollar collapses, or will he be a Peter and deny any affiliation.

Tell us Billy Boy how loyal are you to your masters in Washington and New York?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ell, considering I have been to New York and to Washington just once and have lived in Europe for the past 15-years I guess your cheap parting shot is a little wide of the mark.


I'm sure that there are a lot of non-Americans working for the CIA and other American institutions outside of the US the likes who never set foot in the US.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat I do find amusing is Americans that live under a two party system instead of a real democracy and pretend to themselves that one Party is any different than the other. Sounds like pork barrel party sharing to me?

The Soviet Union would still be in business today if it had a two party system, even if both parties were the same party in disguise with candidates pretending to be opposed to each other.

The two party system assures everyone that nothing really changes. There were attempts at a third party coming on line some years ago, but something big happened and the candidate (Ross Perot) dropped out under pressure or threat and his reform party fell apart shortly afterwards.

I believe this happened just prior to the 1992 elections.

He could have become president in 1992 and the US would have had a third party since then. But forces opposed to such a reform prevented it.
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Re: The Last Days of the Dollar?

Unread postby tugboat » Tue 21 Nov 2006, 19:34:33

China is looking to get rid of it's dollars SLOWLY - this seems to be a pretty smart approach. I'm sure it won't be reported in most media.

http://www.safehaven.com/article-6349.htm
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Re: The Last Days of the Dollar?

Unread postby mmasters » Tue 21 Nov 2006, 19:42:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Soviet Union would still be in business today if it had a two party system, even if both parties were the same party in disguise with candidates pretending to be opposed to each other.

The two party system assures everyone that nothing really changes. There were attempts at a third party coming on line some years ago, but something big happened and the candidate (Ross Perot) dropped out under pressure or threat and his reform party fell apart shortly afterwards.

I believe this happened just prior to the 1992 elections.

He could have become president in 1992 and the US would have had a third party since then. But forces opposed to such a reform prevented it.

You think having two or three parties makes any real difference when media and campaign finance are majority controlled by private interests?
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Re: The Last Days of the Dollar?

Unread postby threadbear » Tue 21 Nov 2006, 23:11:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tugboat', 'C')hina is looking to get rid of it's dollars SLOWLY - this seems to be a pretty smart approach. I'm sure it won't be reported in most media.

http://www.safehaven.com/article-6349.htm


Along the same lines:

Mike Whitney--Online Journal: The Housing Bubble Smackdown and......

Why Should I Care About Net Long-term Capital Inflows?

"In another bit of disheartening news, the net long-term capital inflows fell short of what the US needs to cover the current account deficit. The inflows were only $65 billion when we need $70 billion to make ends meet. This is another way of saying that foreigners are no longer mopping up our red ink. Interestingly, foreign central banks are buying considerably fewer Treasuries; $9 billion in US securities and a paltry $8 billion in Treasury bonds.

What does it mean? It means that no one is dimwitted enough to buy our debt anymore, because we’re no longer a good risk."

http://onlinejournal.com/artman/publish ... 1453.shtml
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Re: The Last Days of the Dollar?

Unread postby MrBill » Wed 22 Nov 2006, 03:28:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'m sure that there are a lot of non-Americans working for the CIA and other American institutions outside of the US the likes who never set foot in the US.



Well, I could sure use the extra income for my retirement fund, especially if it means nothing more than doing what I already do, but unfortunately the CIA only hires US citizens and I would never pass a lie detector test? Oh well... Go Hillary in 2008!
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Re: The Last Days of the Dollar?

Unread postby tugboat » Wed 22 Nov 2006, 09:38:04

Either I better start building that off-grid homestead or learn to speak Russian/Chinese.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/HK22Ag01.html
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/HK23Ag01.html
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