[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'w')hat we do not hear as much about is the impact that high energy prices have on smaller, developing economies.

[nero]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he real question here is: are they unwilling, or are they unable? I think the building evidence is rapidly pointing to the conclusion that they are unable.

[lateStarter]

Good to see that he is concerned about the 'health care' available to the poor. Maybe he could start something to see that the 48 million Americans without any health care/medical benifits could at least get basic preventative care...

[Battle_Scarred_Galactico]

What a total dick !

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lateStarter', 'G')ood to see that he is concerned about the 'health care' available to the poor. Maybe he could start something to see that the 48 million Americans without any health care/medical benifits could at least get basic preventative care...

[nth]

I hope they talk about costs to bring oil fields into production.

I look at Shell's Sakhalin project and its projected costs of $25k per barrel of production capacity. I believe this is the world's most expensive oil field to bring to production at the moment.

I look at GoM's Jack wells that Chevron, Devon, and Statoil are exploring. Based on unofficial preliminary guesses, it will cost $17k per barrel of production capacity just to drill. If they ever meet any hurricanes like Thunderhorse, then you are talking about breaking Shell's Sakhalin's record. GoM is supposed to be easier than frozen sea of Sakhalin islands, but it sure does not look like it.

These two oil fields represent the future oil to be discovered outside of Middle East. One is Arctic region and second is ultra deep sea. They are even talking about ultra deep sea in Arctic region.

Even if they look at costs on land like Canadian tar sands, there is a bottle neck on transporting oil- limited pipeline and train capacity.

Caspian region is also running against transportation issues: limited train, pipeline, and shipping traffic out through Black Sea. Turkey is enforcing a one tanker at a time through the strait. Furthermore, they do not permit night shipments.

I really hope the reports cover all these issues.

[sch_peakoiler]

Maybe they will manage to bring "short-term PO theory" discussion to the mainstream... Would be nice to see.

[joewp]

Call me cynical, but I think these reports are just going to mirror the USGS and CERA. No peak before 2030 and then an undulating plateau with a very slight decline. Bartlett will blow a fuse.

[Cynus]

It would be quite interesting if the GAO report contradicts the Lee Raymond/Daniel Yergin NPC council report. That is what I suspect will happen which will lead to more years of arguing over which report is right. More fiddlin' while Rome burns.

[DantesPeak]

The way to decrease reliance on OPEC imports is, apparently, to increase reliance on ethanol imports.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')an. 25, 2007, 7:28AM
Bodman: U.S. Needs More Ethanol Imports
By ADAM SMALLMAN

DAVOS, Switzerland — The U.S. "will need to have more imports of ethanol," if it is to meet the new mandate to cut gasoline use, the Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman said Thursday.

In an interview with Dow Jones Newswires at the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos, Bodman also said that he did not see subsidies to U.S. farmers remaining in place beyond 2010 or import tariffs on ethanol beyond 2008.

"The idea is that at some point in the future all these technologies need to stand the test of the free market," he said.

"This president is serious about climate change and he has been for some time," Bodman said.

His comments come two days after U.S. President George W. Bush, in his annual State of the Union address, offered up a blueprint for Americans to cut their gasoline use by 20 percent in an attempt to wean the country from its reliance on foreign oil.

He also called for a doubling of the country's strategic petroleum reserves to guard against any sudden cutoff of foreign supplies.

[joewp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'T')he way to decrease reliance on OPEC imports is, apparently, to increase reliance on ethanol imports.

[Dreamtwister]

I think the funniest part of this absurd plan is that it does NOTHING to improve energy security. Whether you are importing oil from the middle east, or corn from Africa, you're still going to be vulnerable to supply disruptions. And if you think for a second that America's enemies will hesitate to put a torch to a corn field to achieve their objectives, you are brain damaged.

[gnm]

Don't we currently export tons of grain TO Africa?

How does this guy even suggest importing ethanol with a straight face? I think the shipping fuel use alone would push it into negative EROI territory....

-G

[Dreamtwister]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', 'H')ow does this guy even suggest importing ethanol with a straight face?

[DantesPeak]

These comments by Bodman have not been widely reported by the media, least the truth about the future of heavy subsidies related to ethanol production and distribution become more apparent.

I see the recent tortilla riots in Mexico as a sign that corn is already too high of a price for many – and that problem will only get worse. China is predicting by only 2010, they will need to import much more grain. Where is that going to come from if corn is essentially going up in smoke?

[Dreamtwister]

The poor have been given 2 choices: Die of starvation, or die of gunshot wounds. Looks like they are choosing the latter.

They always do.

[Cobra_Strike]

Great....like we really need to start STARVING people to death. Mexicans are going to hate the US for corn price increases, and thy are close enough to stream across the border...now more then ever with guns.

[TreebeardsUncle]

Some Impacts on the Climate

The most cost-effective source of ethanol happens to be Brazilian sugar cane as far as I know. That will provide another big incentive, along with cattle ranching for American beef consumption, soy bean farming by international agricultural conglomerates, and setting up small farms for poor local people, to clear much of the remainder of the Brazilian forests. This will lead to conversion to savannah and desert as well as conversion to agricultural fields. The Brazilian climate will be hotter and drier and instead of there being sufficieint regional transpiration to produce enough convectino to bring in moisture from the Atlantic up the Amazon, the warm moist area of the tropical Atlantic will move northwestward supplying fuel for more hurricanes, many of which will impact the American Gulf and Atlantic coasts which will lead to reinsurers and then building insurers raising their rates.

[TreebeardsUncle]

Here is an article that is at the bottom of the front section of the San Francisco Chronicle today:

"Energy experts knock ethanol as costly and inefficient source"

The article by David R. Baker starts off like this:

" Only one fuel - ethanol - can satisfy President Bush's plan to vastly expand America's use of gasoline substitutes, energy experts say.
And that might not be a good thing, they say.
In his State of the Union address Tuesday night, Bush said that within 10 years, he wants the United States to use five times as much alternative fuel as it does now. That step, coupled with tougher mileage standards on cars, would reduce gasoline usage by 20 percent, he said.
Ethanol is the only alternative fuel that can be produced in large enough qunatities to meet his mandate, many experts say. And, as it is made in the the United Sates, ethanol has serious drawbacks.
The vast majority of ethanol comes from corn. But diesel fuel powers the tractors that tends corn fields, natural gas runs the distilleries that produce ethanol, and more diesel is used to ship the finished product to market. The power you get out of corn ethanol, in other words, might just barely beat the power you put into it.
Scients have argued for years about how much of a net power gain corn ethanol provides, some insisting that it consumers more than it produces. The federal government, for its part, estimates that ethnaol gives about 1.6 units of energy for every unit that goes in. But even some researchers who agree say that the fuel doesn't provide much benefit in the end and that the nation shouldn't rely too heavily upon it to the detriment of other biofuels.
"That's really a step backward," said Daniel Kammen, an energy speicalist and co-director of the Berkely Institute of the Environment at UC Berkely. "We know that not all biofuels are created equal."
[Nor, does the article give a very positive endorsement of that pipe dream cellulosic ethanol.]
...
"This is still a technology that resides in laboratories and pilot projects," said Anthony Eggert , a research director with the UC Davis Institute of Transportation Studies.
...
[The article does give a bit more positive assessment for biodeisel though.]
The president specifically mentioned biodeisel as one alternative that could help wean America off oil. The fuel, which literally has been around as long as deisel engines, is twice as energy efficient as corn ethanol and can be made from a wide variety of natural, renewable sources, such as new and used vegetable oils and animal fats. But its use in the United States remains small, despite recent growth.
*****

So, what does the average barrel of oil have now in terms of EROI?
somewhere between 5 and 10

Would an EROI of 1.6 even "work." There isn't enough cropland in the US to run our current fleet on ethanol right, even if all the agricultural land was devoted to producing it? An EROI of 3.2 might be enough to run what, maybe half, of the current number of cars and trucks currently in use in the US?

Using trains instead of trucks for most freight transportation and requiring special licensing for suv drivers and pick up trucks to demonstrate real need to use the vehicles would help reduce excessive and unsustainable fuel consumption habits.

[AirlinePilot]

Just more affirmation to me that Bodman is an idiot. I find this one rather hard to understand.