by newman1979 » Sat 21 Jun 2008, 20:16:49
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'T')here is far far too much attention given to the role of speculators. Are speculators causing oil imports to fall from Nigeria, Mexico, Venezuela, and other places from which the US gets imports? Or is it maybe, just maybe, net imports are falling rapidly because oil exporters can't maintain their production levels? The US has to out bid other countries to replace the oil its losing, causing prices to rise.
The Mexico situation is illustrative of what happens when a proven source drys up. With Mexican exports to the US down almost 40% in two years, the "lost imports" must be made up somewhere else. Nigeria, Angola and Canadian tar sands are probable suspects. Here it takes much more time, trouble, costs and risks to keep the inventories up. With Canadian tar sands, the oil quality is lower than the Mexican loss which has the same issues except risk.
This dynamic is multiplied in all countries that lose sources of oil imports.
Added to the EROEI problems of non conventional oil production and deep sea extraction, oil wars, currency losses, and geopolitical issues, oil prices actually are not particularly speculative to the high side, but rather price is speculative to the short side.